OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[Gamma Emerald]

Realeo, what in dunn's ISO makes you scum read gamma?

It's not "I scum read Gamma", it's more to "Hmm, good point."

So when Dunn said he's going to push Gamma my mind went "Hmm, what's his case?"

The vote post alone (the D1 vote) sends no obvious message but when I read his iso, it makes more senses. Bascially, it's an event of poorly-presented case which merits some grain of relevance but Gamma is an impulsive voter so bam!

I'm acutely aware that I'm prolly being buddied by Dunn, but I realized it's multiball and even if it's scum!Dunn, there is no harm for me to work together against the other second scum faction. I mean, what's preventing me from lynching Dunn after we eradicated the other scum faction.

The fact that it's likely to be close to endgame so scum likely won't be bussing

[davesaz]

I don't know where all this talk of endgame is coming from.
Careful examination of the win conditions requires one scum team to have equal numbers with town and the other scum team to be gone.
The earliest that can happen is with 6 players left, or 5 deaths from now.
It's not when mafia + wolves > town.

[Theta Alpine]

that is not true at all
town wins when mafia and werewolves are dead and there is a town player alive
mafia wins when they have either have full majority or when half of the players are mafia and no town players are left alive
werewolves win when they have either have full majority or when half of the players are werewolves and a town player is alive

[BTD6_maker]

KMD intepret my HURT: plan as analytical Realeo and Flufffer buy it.

I'm sorry. It was not analytical!Realeo.

It was a gambit.

I know that there are going to be a consensus..but that consensus would be on a weak scum read where there is no polarized opinion and it would fall to lurker. Which in this case : shiqf.

I know scum can't resist to be opportunistic.

And I have a victim.

I think we need to get some wagons going. The two with the two highest votes on the secondary votes are Dunn and theta. For now I will switch to theta to get the wagon rolling, but don't think you are off the hook Dunn

VOTE: Theta

SO MANY THING THAT IS WRONG WITH THAT

1. The fact that he flip-flopped with BTD means that he has no plan with "the wagon" to begin with. He was fillering "To make wagon" to sweet talking it
2. javajoe
   do
   scumread Theta from the 5 hurt tags.

   My 5 would be realeo, Dunn, theta, kmd, and shqf

   If he say, "My push is not working, I'm going for my second scumread," it works. However, if he say "top two votes" THEN WHAT ARE YOUR READ LIST FOR?
3. As a continuation, there's no need to do "We need wagon" sheningan. Just vote Theta. You already fos him. It's natural. No need to sugar coat it.
4. Notice that this is the post that javajoe agreed at:

   Shiqf has not done much of anything in this game. This could be scum-indicative but is more likely NAI, at least for now. It will probably be easier to sort them later, once we have more content.
   
   As for the major hurt wagons, that leaves Theta, Dave, and Dunn.
   
   Currently the only person I would hurt out of these is Theta, as I do not have many other relatively strong reads. Theta is a weak scumread.
   
   VOTE: Theta

   javajoe said that he agreed to it. Here's the problem: BTD is stating that he doesn't have many other relatively strong reads and javajoe agrees to it showing that javajoe also agrees that he doesn't have many other strong read.
   But that doesn't make senses. He spend 7 pages tunneling Dunn and acknowledging that read is not strong?
   
   

This seems to be highly suspicious at best.

Realeo basically set up a plan that had a good chance of getting a weak read lynched as opposed to a stronger scumread. Setting up the hurt plan is perfect for scum. Scum can be aware of who the general lurkers are, in this case Shiqf. If these do not include scum on their team, this plan can try to get the lurker lynched.

Realeo then revealed the plan, which as scum is also an excellent idea. They know Town are very likely to simply play along with the hurt plan. They can then cast a lot of suspicion onto someone they know isn't on their team for simply following the plan and lynching who the most hurt player is. In this case, Realeo could cast a lot of suspicion onto Javajoe, which got them lynched. Of course, Javajoe flipped Town. While this doesn't disprove the method, it does call into question how reliable it is supposed to be. If it is supposed to be rather weak, why use it to push someone heavily to a lynch based on it? If it is supposed to be strong, mislynches should be rare.

The hurt plan serves Realeo perfectly as scum, whereas if Realeo is Town the plan seems risky.

I currently have a moderate scumread on Realeo. I will analyse Theta next.

[Kmd4390]

The hurt plan was fine if we needed a compromise. I didn't like the way he used it as a trap. We had a perfectly good lead wagon on theta and mislynched java instead.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm still here to win 100% of the games I play and if you are too you'll look at reads over probabilities

Already missed your mark
Mini Normal 1861

My intent was clear and you're so bad at this game it's amazing you can even comprehend a loss to be able to even bring it up

Are you going to scum hunt yet?

[Flubbernugget]

I'll look at a next vote count and if theta has more traction than hellfire I'm probably moving there

[Flubbernugget]

I'm still here to win 100% of the games I play and if you are too you'll look at reads over probabilities

Already missed your mark
Mini Normal 1861

My intent was clear and you're so bad at this game it's amazing you can even comprehend a loss to be able to even bring it up

Are you going to scum hunt yet?

If this wasn't a petty snipe I was overly abrasive.

My point still holds that you're blatantly misunderstanding what I'm saying, and other Oriole have correctly interpreted my message, so the problem isn't on my end.

[Flubbernugget]

*people

[Realeo]

<Insert long speculation>

The hurt plan was fine if we needed a compromise. I didn't like the way he used it as a trap. We had a perfectly good lead wagon on theta and mislynched java instead.

Friendly reminder that your logic only applies in solid ball.

Unless you're speculating that Theta is my scum partner.

[Kmd4390]

I'm not speculating on anything except theta's alignment, java's which we already know, and what happened. I'm not going any deeper than that with theta still alive.

[Realeo]

Realeo, my expectation that there is some kind of scum on the kill list is behavioral, not math.
This is coming from someone with a very deep background in game theory who observed mafia's every move the only other time the setup has been played.
They played the other 2 factions like an orchestra btw. Though wolves were at a disadvantage after losing one to a d1 lynch.

If you understand game theory, then you should understand logical statement.

If mafia put werewolf in death list, they would commit wifom.

As you know, a logical statement consists of premise and conclusion which in this case.

Premise : If mafia put werewolf
Conclusion: They would commit wifom

You explained to me in great detail what is the conclusion, thank you!

(Personally, I'm persuaded. However, as you would see on the post below--it's not enough for a vote.)

But you also need to give me evidence of the premise

because a statement is only true when BOTH premise and conclusion if proven.

The problem with "mafia putting werewolf" is MAFIA DOESN'T KNOW WHO IS WEREWOLF*** so you need to explain to me why mafia put ww!HM and the only way to do that is by explaining why mafia scumread them thus they put them in the death list. Which is why I asked you to give case independent of scumread.

My probabilistic analysis is done to explain to you that premise is not a trivial proof.

***Another alternative is mafia putting mafia!HM as gambit, but you still need to explain to me why HM is scum.

[Realeo]

I'll look at a next vote count and if theta has more traction than hellfire I'm probably moving there

Wait for me, please. I'm not finished with hellfire. He haven't answer my question.

[Flubbernugget]

Noted

[davesaz]

I'm going to pay more attention to my blood pressure than I do your post.
Ignored.

[davesaz]

that is not true at all
town wins when mafia and werewolves are dead and there is a town player alive
mafia wins when they have either have full majority or when half of the players are mafia and no town players are left alive
werewolves win when they have either have full majority or when half of the players are werewolves and a town player is alive

All of those conditions require at least 5 deaths. The point remains that we're nowhere near endgame.

[Bins]

Votecount 2.3

• (1)

  Theta Alpine
  - Realeo
  
  (0)
  davesaz
  
  (0)
  Dunnstral
  
  (0)
  Flubbernugget
  
  (0)
  Realeo
  
  (0)
  FireScreamer
  
  (0)
  shiqf
  
  (2)

  Hellfire Missile
  - Flubbernugget, davesaz
  
  (0)
  kmd4390
  
  (0)
  BTD6_maker
  
  (1)

  Gamma Emerald
  - Dunnstral
  
  
  (7)

  Not Voting
  - Gamma Emerald, Hellfire Missile, Theta Alpine, kmd4390, BTD6_maker, shiqf, FireScreamer
  
  With
  11
  alive, it's
  6
  to lynch.
  Deadline in
  (expired on 2017-06-03 09:53:00)
  (June 3^rd).
  
  
  Mod Notes:
  BTD6_maker V/LA until Thursday.
  
  shiqf is being replaced.

[Flubbernugget]

Bahaha my vote is staying

Ily Dave <3

[Gamma Emerald]

Why the sudden reaction

[Bins]

Hiraki replaces shiqf! Please welcome them!

[Hiraki]

Egopost

[Hellfire Missile]

when called out on it his response was to cry and try to appease town.

So if it was a genuine accident, what should be the way HM do it in a non-appeasing way?

Make less of a fuss about it and better reevaluate reads

Wouldn't someone--

as a human being

--be panic when they make blantant accident and took so long to realize it?

On better re-evalute reads, that's a valid point, let's ask Hellfire Missile

@HellfireMissile:

With javajoe lynch flipping town, do you still townread me? <Expect follow up>

Found it
I still town read you. Java made some contradictions and his rapid vote switching made him suss. You were clearly convinced that java was scum. I was also sure that he was scum.

After rereading the whole thing leading up to and after, why did Theta hammer? Yes he was convinced that he was scum but we aren't supposed to hammer right? java did claim by at the end, not sure if that helped

Of course people might be right about the hurt plan but I don't get it (so I guess I'm stupid)

[Flubbernugget]

"found it"

This was not something being mentioned often

Do scum have daychat?

[Hellfire Missile]

"found it"

This was not something being mentioned often

Do scum have daychat?

Mafia have day talk, the Wolves do not.

This was not something being mentioned often
I don't get this

[Flubbernugget]

There's a lot of posts in thread

Stop replying to only mine