OPEN 687: JUNGLE OLIGARCHY (GAME OVER)

[Vedith]

I was town. And my reads are 100% right.

[havingfitz]

I was town. And my reads are 100% right.

I hate this. You're L-1.

@kmd....I'm not voting you based on the amount of posting you've done...I'm voting you because I think you're a WW.. Your last post that I had quoted just struck a nerve with me and didn't make sense. Regardless of your alignment I hope your rl workload lightens up.

[Vedith]

Okay well I'm still town and my reads are still 100% right...

[RadiantCowbells]

gtfo

[CommKnight]

10/10 constructive posts since I've been gone. Will let mafia and WW's accuse each other of being mafia while I watch again.

[Dunnstral]

I'll look at this tomorrow

[Realeo]

For town...you only need to determine one other player is town to give you an 80% chance of hitting scum. And if you're good and have both your remaining town id'd your odds of hitting scum go up to 100%.

So to anyone not voting......why not?

Yeah, sorry.

VOTE: Dunn

[Realeo]

@RC, I'll let you handle Realeo. He may be town, but his reads are shit.

First of all, I'm the first one to call BTD mafia. Yours are shite.

Second, assuming you're town--so I am going to give you the chance--I have found a way for me to townread you. Would you be all ears?

Comm: I'm all ears. Talk, Real

Ok, so you say you're happy with both Vedith and Dunnstral lynch.

What do I say, comn, that if you compromise with me and vote Dunstral, assuming you're town and everything rolls well, I'm gonna townread you?

Comm: How is it possible?

Simple, information lynch. Vedith flipping anti-town won't do any damage to my readlist. It just proofs that town is {RC,KMD} fmpov which (unfortunately) at this state of the game is not enough as we need to lynch specific alignment + loses the game if you are town.

But Dunnstral flipping anti-werewolf is a real killer.

If Dunnstral flips town, Vedith is auto werewolf and RC is auto town + I have to reconsider my werewolf read.

If Dunnstral is mafia, I am an idiot and I have to reconsider my entire readlist,

possibly considering the chance that you are town.

So, flipping Dunnstral is perhaps the final chance for me to townread you before possible lylo.

So, what do you say?

If you are town, help me, help you.

[Realeo]

I fucking don't understand why RC and me has to lynch a different person when both of us agrees that Dunnstral is a werewolf.

[Vedith]

Why do you want to kill a WW over Mafia?
I mean, Dunn is Mafia but I don't understand your view with WW other than it gives less targets for Mafia to pick.

Tomorrow the other team has to be the lynch regardless, so overall it doesn't matter if we lynch WW or Mafia.

[Realeo]

2 mafia vs 3 town vs 1 werewolf is a more advantageous position for town compared to 1 mafia vs 3 town vs 2 werewolf as the latter invovles kingmaker.

Do you want to gamble everything on Comm giving the victory for town, Vedith?

[Vedith]

Actually, lynching a WW is worse

Lynch WW - It makes 2 v 3 v 1
3 names on list, last WW makes a kill to put town at 2 v 2 v 1 (Killing Mafia means then lose).
Means town then lose and become king maker (50/50 odds for WW/Mafia win).

Killing Mafia gives WW no reason to make the kill and we go 1 v 3 v 2 with majority vote to lynch WW.

[Realeo]

Wait no.

Continuing on 2 v 2 v 1,

if we lynch werewolf, we get a tie?

if we lynch mafia it goes to to 1 v 2 v 1. Werewolf has no incentive to kill town as in a 1 v 1 v 1, mafia is lynching werewolf for a tie so either no kill or mafia kill

If ww no kill, we go to 1 v 2 v 1. We have to lynch werewolf then mafia.

If ww kills mafia, we go to 2 v 1 lylo.

We avoid kingmaker.

[Vedith]

However, the second one leaves Mafia as the king maker...

[Vedith]

Wait no.

Continuing on 2 v 2 v 1,

if we lynch werewolf, we get a tie?

if we lynch mafia it goes to to 1 v 2 v 1. Werewolf has no incentive to kill town as in a 1 v 1 v 1, mafia is lynching werewolf for a tie so either no kill or mafia kill

If ww no kill, we go to 1 v 2 v 1. We have to lynch werewolf then mafia.

If ww kills mafia, we go to 2 v 1 lylo.

We avoid kingmaker.

Why would WW not kill at this stage if it's a town win?
WW cannot win this way, and therefore will not follow this.

[Realeo]

It's not auto town win. It's lynching game.

[Vedith]

Also, why would Mafia put themselves on the list when they can put 3 other names?

[Vedith]

It's not auto town win. It's lynching game.

But we know that RC and kmd are WW.
So yes, it is an auto loss for WW.

[Realeo]

Here's a quick pitch for Vedith why Dunn is ww:

If RC is werewolf, why is RC is avoiding lynching his ww read : Dunn?

Simple, Dunn is his partner in crime.

[Realeo]

RC is being truthful that Dunn is ww. Notice that RC in D4 is struggling naming Dunn's partner when I confront him why Dunn is werewolf. That's because the only partner that makes senses is RC.

[Vedith]

So who's Mafia?
Because I think Mafia being lynched gives us the better option.

If it's 1 town and 1 WW, do WW's win?

[Realeo]

It's a tie for mafia vs town, but town should fight for total win right?

But three things:

1. I did numbers and yes, it turns out we

could

avoid kingmaker by lynching mafia. Sorry for inconveniece. Too absorbed on numberwang
2. For Vedith, {Flubber, BTD, Gamma} Ever notice this three never interacts with each other?
3. Assuming Dunn flips mafia, then I think werewolf is definitely kmd, RC--and this could be reasons why RC is reluctant from lynching Dunn--but I'm honestly drawing blanks on the 3rd mafia.

[Realeo]

Dunn, if you hammer Vedith, I swear to God I would kingmaker against you.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: RC

I'm out. peace realeo enjoy the loss.

[CommKnight]

Hey Realeo, yeah, Realeo. You know when I said you got shit reads? It might be because you didn't even bother to read the set-up. 1v1v1 = mafia win. If one faction is gone 1v1 or 2v2 where town is alive, that scum faction wins. There is no tie.