Open 692 - Two-fold Matrix6 (Game Over)

[CommKnight]

That makes zero sense, walk me through what you're saying.

[Something_Smart]

It made more sense in my head
Basically in the world where Thor is scum RB he almost certainly blocks and kills Titus, so two kills would be more likely. Therefore, if we knew it was a mafia RB, the fact that there was only one kill would make Thor less likely scum. (Also it helps to explain away another missing mafia kill.)

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I don't give Lang enough credit to think through not killing to set Thor up.

this is where you go astray my friend. the mafia didnt hold their fire to set up anyone. they did it bc they were afraid there might be a tracker as they are 2 goons so a tracker was a 50% chance
half of that 50% was there to be a doctor so them trying to shoot the tracker could have failed
the other half was a bp and again shooting that would have failed and in both cases it could have resulted in them being found out
i agree no killing is absurd under the circumstances but lets look at it in reverse. do you give lang buddha credit to work it out like that and come with that theory out of thin air? i mightve bought it if he stopped at tracker that he town slipped as in not being attentive enough to the flips but the 2 goons bit gave him away and trying to correct it by saying there still could be a rb but not altering his tracker assumption gave me pause as that is the mind set he is really still locked into. he thought there might be a tracker and decided to hold his fire until such a tracker was lynched or the wws killed them for him
in the other 25% where there was a jk which turned out to be the case no shooting still give confusing results as the norm would be to assume the kill was blocked either from or on the jailed so in hindsight this worked well too

another point is you are forgetting the realeo iso. he came in not voting and ari hokingly called him up on it then he got paranoid with votes accumulating on him then the repositioning of his vote on aris wagon and his interaction with raya were surface level discussing my french back and forth with ari and questioning realeos vote on pmysterious that she never followed up on but they never really got it going on each other nor tried to figure each other out yet he keeps saying he is paranoid of her without explaining and he goes at oldwino isndtead for using rayas same reasoning to sr lane
even in his read lists which he two of them he never mentions raya on either of them but he starts to go mildly aggressive on her when she stopped playing but didnt get replaced

i mean there is nothing at all in their combined isos that could would make it less likely for them to be partners yet there are bits that would make you go this makes sense for being partners

so go iso them simultaneously and see if it changes your mind

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

@ss: actually if there is a bp then the case on lang falls apart as the 2 goons things becomes not a slip
however im fully convinced it was a slip and thus i say there is no bp and it was a solo jk all along
i thus would agree to claim precisely bp/not bp meaning the elder if existent should claim no bp

[Lang Buddha]

I don't give Lang enough credit to think through not killing to set Thor up.

Is this maddafakka calling me dumb, again, man?!

[Lang Buddha]

ok

VOTE: lang buddha

this is the mafia

lb actually scum claimed in 1660 as precisely being mafia and it went unnoticed even by me on the first read
in his post 1661 he was trying to remedy the situation but it's too late

in 1660 he speaks of a

tracker

and explains the mafia are 2

goons

and i ask you this: why would

town

ever mention a tracker when the flipped pr was a jk?

the answer is withing his post. the mafia are 2 goons and thus knew its a 50% chance there was a tracker and 25% it was a jk and in all cases not killing was better for them
only if it was a solo cop would it have been a bad idea to not kill as it slows down the game and gives the cop more time to catch them

so the mafia deliberately didnt shoot for gear a tracker may report them as both slots raya+realeo/lang were not above suspicion and maybe they thought i might be the tracker as i was suspecting raya the most and also had a feud with realeo on d1 and called him out on the repositioning of his vote on the ari wagon so if i was tracker there was a high chance i would have tracked either of them and if there was a tracker there was a chance there was also a doctor

land tried to correct his mistake by saying there still could be a rb but rb does not coexist with tracker and he didnt even correct the tracker bit

so i went back to check my remarks on realeo and i remembered the above mentioned reason i suspected him plus a reference to post 489 so i went back and ckecked it and it appears realeo had trouble coming up with scum reads while he had too many town reads by his own admission which is also a scum tell bc scum have hardships coming up with reasons to support a scum read and with this being multi ball they didnt want to piss off the wws or trigger the prs if they fos d either

so we hav2 goons with a hailkeeper on their own (1st line of the matrix)

worthy to note lang was also blatantly looking for the wws and not interested in identifying the mafia at all when at the time we were discussing either the lynch or the leash of the mafia. he threw in a few pairs including me+ari and then comm+thor in hopes something sticks and we lynch somewhere that is not him

i am now 100% confident lang buddha is the mafia to the point im willing to take comm on his bet if the site rules allow it. thor is not mafia. lang buddha is

p.s. mafia not shooting explains why thor being jailed looked like blocking all the kills bc there were not kill attempts to begin with

Bitter sweet bullshit, man.

[Lang Buddha]

@ss: actually if there is a bp then the case on lang falls apart as the 2 goons things becomes not a slip
however im fully convinced it was a slip and thus i say there is no bp and it was a solo jk all along
i thus would agree to claim precisely bp/not bp meaning the elder if existent should claim no bp

What was the slip again?

[Thor665]

Mix this with Titus' second post into the game where she does the voting. I think it's safe to assume her slot did block Thor, then Lang then Thor again. However SHE was certain on Thor being mafia. This last post of hers was very clear on that read.

I forgot that dead town have 100% accuracy of reads and that allows us to blind sheep them instead of applying our own thoughts.

Also I did forget Titus replaced into the game as well. But her ISO is pretty damn clear and I am going to follow it. She died for a reason, maybe the Werewolves picked up on it, maybe the mafia picked up on it.

Maybe the Mafia picked up on it...you're claiming I'm the Mafia and that Titus 100% knew it, so it is utterly impossible for me to have killed her unless I'm a roleblocker, and if I'm a roleblocker I wouldn't have needed to kill her if I knew she was a JKer, and the werewolves had absolutely no reason to kill her because she would have been my problem, not theirs.

Also as to explain why I seem to have "insight on kills". Well that's a slip on your part. I, like any townie who is actually looking at the roles possible knows that it's more likely jailkeeper prevented the mafia from shooting than a Guardian's target be protected twice or Elder getting shot.

I hear you saying 'more likely' can you explain why exactly?
Like, let's say I'm Mafia and Titus blocked me N1 and N3 and Lang N2 - explain how that's more likely to have stopped all the Mafia kills. Did I target Lang on N2? Or what?

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

[Lang Buddha]

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

Why didn't

you

think of this, man? You're supposed to disarm the suspicion of being mafia on yourself somehow, eh?

[Something_Smart]

@ss: actually if there is a bp then the case on lang falls apart as the 2 goons things becomes not a slip
however im fully convinced it was a slip and thus i say there is no bp and it was a solo jk all along
i thus would agree to claim precisely bp/not bp meaning the elder if existent should claim no bp

Right

I knew there was something I was forgetting lol

[Something_Smart]

And in case you couldn't guess, I'm not BP.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

And in case you couldn't guess, I'm not BP.

and neither am i

[CommKnight]

@ss: actually if there is a bp then the case on lang falls apart as the 2 goons things becomes not a slip
however im fully convinced it was a slip and thus i say there is no bp and it was a solo jk all along
i thus would agree to claim precisely bp/not bp meaning the elder if existent should claim no bp

Ah, I get it now. You make a better case than SS and Thor. They could learn a thing or two from you.

I'm not BP.

[Something_Smart]

Shush, it was late

[Thor665]

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

Why didn't

you

think of this, man? You're supposed to disarm the suspicion of being mafia on yourself somehow, eh?

I was more focused on explaining why the case was a bit narf and also pointing out the Wolf and town rule outs I was spotting.
I totally missed your slip, I'll agree.

[Aristophanes]

Aleoght, I will reread D4 tomorrow and see where I'm at with the new info. Titus softs make it pretty clear Thor is Mafia, so it's just the werewolf duo that need sorting. We got this

[CommKnight]

Also I'd like to note while the BP/Not BP is going around that we still are hunting the wolf pairs to lynch tomorrow.

Something_Smart
Umlaut
Aristophanes
Vedith
Judge Joseph Dredd

^ In this 5 I feel comfortable saying the wolf pair is 100%. I'm leaning town on Judge so for me it's more those 4 and I'd like to think Vedith rolled town this time around.

[Lang Buddha]

What was the slip again?

Your claim that Mafia feared a Tracker as explanation of their strategy.

Why didn't

you

think of this, man? You're supposed to disarm the suspicion of being mafia on yourself somehow, eh?

I was more focused on explaining why the case was a bit narf and also pointing out the Wolf and town rule outs I was spotting.
I totally missed your slip,

I'll agree

.

When, man?

So why is it a slip, man, hmm?

[Vedith]

Why have we not lynched the names I gave and won yet?

[Something_Smart]

Because we can't do both and you haven't figured out which is the right one yet.

[Thor665]

So why is it a slip, man, hmm?

Because it shows knowledge beyond what a town player would possess.

[Thor665]

Also I'd like to note while the BP/Not BP is going around that we still are hunting the wolf pairs to lynch tomorrow.

Something_Smart
Umlaut
Aristophanes
Vedith
Judge Joseph Dredd

^ In this 5 I feel comfortable saying the wolf pair is 100%. I'm leaning town on Judge so for me it's more those 4 and I'd like to think Vedith rolled town this time around.

I've offered rule out thoughts for Judge, Ari, and Vedith from that list.
What do you think of my non-wolf cases on them?

I also don't think Umlaut and S_S make much sense as a pair, which is one of my issues with your slot.

[Lang Buddha]

So why is it a slip, man, hmm?

Because it shows knowledge beyond what a town player would possess.

Like that there might be a tracker in the game, man?

[BTD6_maker]

Day 4 VC 6

Thor665: CommKnight, Umlaut
Lang Buddha: Judge Joseph Dredd, Thor665
Umlaut: Aristophanes
Aristophanes: Lang Buddha
Vedith: Vedith
CommKnight: Something_Smart

Not Voting:

Prodding Umlaut.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-08-27 19:30:00)

I will be V/LA until the 25th of August. Belisarius will post VCs if necessary, but you should wait for me to post the flip in the event of a lynch.

With 8 players, it's 5 to lynch!

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why have we not lynched the names I gave and won yet?

your vote in on yourself, man. get a grip and remedy the situation, man

on another note: you should be sheeping me for

i am the law

i guess two can play that game although me chanting that got me lynched on d1 in another game and i was the town gunsmith

i was even lynched while i was offline so didnt even get the chance to claim which is very bad practice on d1 generally speaking

also comm and umlaut need to switch their voted if they want to lynch mafia today

if you changed your mind again then guardian if existent should be on buddha while he shoots aris and we probably are better off not lynching today but i think thats a bit riskier than lynching the known scum

if/when buddha flips mafia we know thor is not it but for those who are still in doubt the wws are likely to shoot thor anyway if buddha is not mafia so we need not worry about it

weigh your options not only considering who you might think is more likely scum but also how scum kills are likely to go. even if we lynch thor the wws are likely to shoot buddha but im fully convinced buddha is the mafia here so if either of you isnt 100% on thor its better to vote buddha anyway