Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

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boring
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Post Post #1775  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 pm

also, we only have 7 days left.

ProHawk
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Post Post #1776  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:29 pm

Sorry, super busy with stuff going to have to wait a bit

Fishythefish
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Post Post #1777  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:29 am

In post 1774, boring wrote:I've concluded that Ecto was killed because they thought he was a PR. I don't see any clear line from him to either identified scum or either of you. His sudden standoffishness must have spooked them.

By the way, can anyone explain the connection people were making D1 between my slot's alignment and those of Yuria and IceGuy? Players just seemed to go with it, but I don't see how those kinds of associations could be rational D1.

I know I'm dwelling on D1, but there was so much chaos that day. I think it might hold a lot of information.

For the Ecto kill - yeah, it doesn't look like one that helps us today. It could either have been PR hunting or just killing a contributing townie, but it doesn't look like his reads were super relevant.

What connection do you mean D1? I don't recall linking those alignments, or other people doing so?

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Post Post #1778  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:30 am

I'll have no access for around the next 36 hours, then can be as active as needed until the end.

boring
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Post Post #1779  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:51 pm

In post 1777, Fishythefish wrote:
In post 1774, boring wrote:I've concluded that Ecto was killed because they thought he was a PR. I don't see any clear line from him to either identified scum or either of you. His sudden standoffishness must have spooked them.

By the way, can anyone explain the connection people were making D1 between my slot's alignment and those of Yuria and IceGuy? Players just seemed to go with it, but I don't see how those kinds of associations could be rational D1.

I know I'm dwelling on D1, but there was so much chaos that day. I think it might hold a lot of information.

For the Ecto kill - yeah, it doesn't look like one that helps us today. It could either have been PR hunting or just killing a contributing townie, but it doesn't look like his reads were super relevant.

What connection do you mean D1? I don't recall linking those alignments, or other people doing so?

"If IceGuy flips scum, boring is town and Yuria is scum."

It was started somewhere between Ecto and Trans. But I recall Mutant picking it up too. I'm not sure who else, at the moment. Since I don't recall anyone challenging the rationale of this assumption, I presumed that it made sense to everyone. Since you were around that day too, I was wondering if you understood it.

... but tbh, I don't remember anymore why I thought your answer was important, so no big deal if you don't know.

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Post Post #1780  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:00 pm

I imagine that was about how the wagons went? But I don't remember, so I'd just be rereading the same stuff as you to work it out.

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Post Post #1781  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:41 pm


Vote Count 6.2

not voting (3) - Fishythefish, boring, ProHawk

With 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch
(expired on 2018-01-07 13:00:00)
Modding Two-fold C9++ in signups in the open queue.

Fishythefish
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Post Post #1782  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:03 pm

If boring is scum we've lost, and may as well get it over with.

VOTE: ProHawk

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Post Post #1783  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:48 pm

Good call, sorry haven't been able to put in enough time here :(

VOTE: Fishythefish

boring
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Post Post #1784  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:50 pm

Here's the thing: If Fishy is scum, I think the denizens of the dead thread will forgive me voting ProHawk instead. If ProHawk is scum and I vote Fishy, I'm pretty sure they're going to burn me in effigy.

But I am probably going to vote Fishy anyway.

I'll sleep on it, and check back in tomorrow.

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Post Post #1785  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:39 am

Glad to see I got it right :)

If you are planning to vote for me, I'd really like to hear why first so I can explain anything that needs explaining. I think I've played a pretty damn good game here, and I don't at all know why you think I'm more likely scum than Prohawk.

God, I hate posting at this stage of the game. Makes me feel like scum.

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Post Post #1786  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:11 am

In post 1784, boring wrote:I think the denizens of the dead thread will forgive me voting ProHawk instead.


Rofl, yeah that's a pretty accurate statement I think...

Fish you def have played a good game, prob why UC was so confident.

boring
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Post Post #1787  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:58 pm

In post 1785, Fishythefish wrote:Glad to see I got it right :)

If you are planning to vote for me, I'd really like to hear why first so I can explain anything that needs explaining. I think I've played a pretty damn good game here, and I don't at all know why you think I'm more likely scum than Prohawk.

God, I hate posting at this stage of the game. Makes me feel like scum.

I'm not going to pretend that I'm 100% confident about this.

There's the gut feeling that you're coasting in a game full of easy targets. Then there's the intensified feeling when I looked through your meta. You're a lot more assertive as town, and more easy going as scum.

I asked you what the biggest problem has been with town. Maybe we simply disagree, but I think blaming Transcend was simply a convenient answer, and one that you thought I wanted to hear. You could argue that ProHawk has given shitty answers today too, but I've noticed that impulsive town get pretty fuckity at the end.

But there's another thing nagging at me. A few, really.

Sheep and Deas were voting each other pretty much all of Day 1. They didn't seem to be too protective of each other other days (when it switched to UCV) either. If the third scum slot was as unstable as LUV/Viomi/REM/ProHawk, I don't see them taking that risk. I get that "every man for himself" cuts down on associations, but why not bus the crazy slot, then?

I think the scum actions, as they unfolded, makes the most sense when the team is confident that one of their members is going all the way. And, if, by chance, they were waaay more confident in ProHawk's slot than they should have been (no offence), why would ProHawk then risk openly defending Deas?

boring
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Post Post #1788  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:52 pm

Okay everyone, I'm really, really, really, really, really, really, really, very extremely sorry about this if I'm wrong.

I think I'm just going to do this like ripping off a band-aid.

VOTE: Fishythefish

this is why town!boring shouldn't be allowed in LYLO

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Post Post #1789  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:40 am



Vote Count 6.3

Fishythefish (2) - ProHawk, boring (LYNCH)
ProHawk (1) - Fishythefish

not voting (0) -

With 3 alive it takes 2 to lynch

Modding Two-fold C9++ in signups in the open queue.

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Post Post #1790  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:45 am


What began with 13 ends with 2 left standing. But is this it?

Fishythefish,
Mafia Goon, was lynched!

Boring and ProHawk survive and
Town wins!
Modding Two-fold C9++ in signups in the open queue.

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Post Post #1791  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:06 am

Well done Pr0 and Boring for both reading the situation correctly at the end.

Good game, very close in the end. I read both UCV and Deas as scum. I like to think I'd have got Fish later on if i'd survived, but he played well to be fair.

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Post Post #1792  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:11 am

Fucking GG boring. I felt it was always going to be you deciding it today and I'm glad you made the right choice :P
Currently hosting Open 713: Jungle Republic. PM me to be in the queue for replacements or to spectate!

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Post Post #1793  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:32 am

holy shit. good job town. i am truly impressed
"almost every post UCV posts bleeds town"-ActionDan"Let's hope UCV really is the gift that keeps on giving"-Lucky2u
"UCV, SuperSaint, was endgamed!" - Aristophanes (OOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF)
Campaign-come vote now

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Post Post #1794  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:38 am

GG, glad town won out in the end.

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Post Post #1795  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:39 am

boring, I take my hat off to you. That's the best I've been caught in a long, long time. Your 1787 is epic level mafia play.

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Post Post #1796  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:42 am

Many thanks to the mod. I like this setup, and it was impeccably run.

Replying to boring is a good way to give my thoughts on this game and my play in it.

In post 1787, boring wrote:There's the gut feeling that you're coasting in a game full of easy targets. Then there's the intensified feeling when I looked through your meta. You're a lot more assertive as town, and more easy going as scum.

My biggest regret in this game is an enforced period of low activity at the end of November. You started this scumread after that; I think if I'd kept up my day 1 level through day 2, things might have gone differently.

However, I think this is meta on me is accurate; it won't read me reliably, but it's much better than random. As town, I sort of have two games:
1) Doing OK - I produce sensible cases, but don't set the game alight, and it's a bit of an effort. My activity and/or motivation are often middling. I'm usually a moderate townread.
2) Owning the game - I feel immersed in the game; I really get the flow of it, push reads hard, and am involved in everything important. I say exactly what I think at all times, and it's obvious I'm doing that. I'm a universal townread.
My scum game is a pretty good emulation of my worse town game; I can't fake my better game.

In post 1787, boring wrote:I asked you what the biggest problem has been with town. Maybe we simply disagree, but I think blaming Transcend was simply a convenient answer, and one that you thought I wanted to hear. You could argue that ProHawk has given shitty answers today too, but I've noticed that impulsive town get pretty fuckity at the end.

As it happens, my answer on the problem with the town is entirely honest. I think Transcend made day 1 difficult, lost you a PR night 1, and made himself an obvious lynch day 3; otherwise scum would have really struggled.

I'm curious to know - what do you think the biggest problem was in the town?

In post 1787, boring wrote:Sheep and Deas were voting each other pretty much all of Day 1. They didn't seem to be too protective of each other other days (when it switched to UCV) either. If the third scum slot was as unstable as LUV/Viomi/REM/ProHawk, I don't see them taking that risk. I get that "every man for himself" cuts down on associations, but why not bus the crazy slot, then?

I think the scum actions, as they unfolded, makes the most sense when the team is confident that one of their members is going all the way. And, if, by chance, they were waaay more confident in ProHawk's slot than they should have been (no offence), why would ProHawk then risk openly defending Deas?

This is a very solid analysis.

---

I'm pretty annoyed with UCV, who in twilight told the town a string of true things after being lynched, in a way that was pretty blatantly honest and gave out significant information. One of those - that he was confident in winning - was brought up repeatedly in reasons people scumread me. I'm not saying it necessarily affected the outcome, but I don't think that is OK. It feels like it violates the old rules of "play to win" and "don't claim scum with someone".

---

I had a desperation post lined up, for if you declared intent to vote. I may as well post it:
Last gasp@boring: I've been thinking a little about how I would have played this game as scum.

I think scum!Fishy would have won this game by now. Look at day 2 in particular. There had barely been a vote on scum day 1. If scum had got a mislynch day 2, particularly without coming under much fire, town would have been in serious shit. In that circumstance, do you really think I'd go after both my partners, and push hard against a Transcend wagon? Bussing is not generally a tactic that gets you credit in proportion to how much it hurts your team. That's particularly true with a high-ish information game like this one - we could easily have got more information out of the tracker, making relying on one scumbag particularly dangerous.

One other little thing - if I was scum you'd have been a pretty good kill night 3. In the scum!Fishy theory, it's pretty clear that I was the one with the best chance of making LYLO, and that PRs would be eating nightkills. You cast the only vote I got between pages 2 and 72 - eliminating the only person who suspected me would have been tempting; particularly when that suspicion wasn't something that could be reasoned with.

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Post Post #1797  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:50 am

sorry for being a complete shitlord! gg town i guess

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Post Post #1798  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:52 am

Incidentally, I thought your day 1 gambit isn't obviously a bad one; it had a high payoff if it went well (although actually the scum wouldn't have shot you, because we guessed the gambit). I generally think those high-risk, high-reward plays are wrong, but it's very hard to know the chances of it working.

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Post Post #1799  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:55 am

i honestly just think my playstyle didn't mesh well with this table is all

and i thought one of prohawk's predecessors scumslipped in another game about this one, but i didn't say anything for obvious reasons.

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