Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[Ectomancer]

And I'd like input on my observation that Fitz is only putting in self-defence effort, as opposed to game-solving effort. Isn't that ultimately the behavior we look for in scum?

That is exactly the type of behavior that warrants investigation. Bearing in mind that it is too late for Fitz to alter that behavior once called out. So analyze away on Boring's theory, but this is the cut-off point for supporting references.

[DeasVail]

I don't know what to fucking do with Kelbris. He's kind of adorable, so I don't want him to be scum, but he could totally be scum, but if he flipped town, that's like zero information, except maybe for the wagon analysis.

Why are you using the information gained from a lynch as a factor. Shouldn’t the priority be lynching scum, regardless of the information obtained?

[Ectomancer]

I don't know what to fucking do with Kelbris. He's kind of adorable, so I don't want him to be scum, but he could totally be scum, but if he flipped town, that's like zero information, except maybe for the wagon analysis.

Why are you using the information gained from a lynch as a factor. Shouldn’t the priority be lynching scum, regardless of the information obtained?

We all know DeasVail's statement to be true. We also know that its application in this context as a response to Boring's statement could be a scummy misconstrual of her intent. Clearly Boring hearts Kelbris but brain is in charge. In other words, a conflicted opinion and yet still a null. Even if you decide to settle the question it doesn't give good information if Kelbris ends up town. And then the unspoken part would be "and so other wagons" blah blah blah. Boring is scum hunting on a greater level. But to nitpick her Kelbris opinion as if it exists in isolation didn't strike a good chord.
It is also a quotable "I'm trying so hard to be helpful town" statement.

[DeasVail]

I don't think it's necessarily scummy from boring, but I'm interested in the response to my question.

Oddly enough, I actually get the impression that your post is a scummy misconstrual of

my

intent, considering that I'm pressuring boring, but didn't assign any value judgements to her post. However, you take it beyond that and create this story about how I'm misconstruing her intent.

[ProHawk]

So here's the conundrum with Transcend, his reads have sucked balls. Literally on town. I realize that I have privileged information here, but for reals. He might be town, but get this, scum knows what roles to claim to draw out counter-claims. He would know exactly what to claim to be able to possibly avoid a lynch (like he did) and still be able to out a PR. He claimed right before he was about to get lynched. Sure he could have said "don't claim" but really? That shit needs to be shut down and quick. Meta like that is detrimental to winning. Like he seriously put us in a shitty place here.

I dont fucking know, but I do know he can't make it to endgame.

VOTE: Transcend

[Transcend]

But you just got done saying I'm town

Lynch this lol

[ProHawk]

That was before I saw your shitty end to the D1

[ProHawk]

And I think I just said I liked your intro into the game? I don't think I even said you were town?

[Transcend]

Well then

[Luca Blight]

Regarding the change in attention from Ectomancer to boring, I did lose a bit of my passion for a boring lynch towards the end of Day 1, however I also thought there was a fairly high risk of no lynch with the competing wagons and lack of consensus,

and so I wasn’t going to attempt to introduce yet another wagon to the mix by pushing someone else.

Regarding my initial read on Ectomancer, obviously my read has changed? I liked his posting earlier in the game, but not enough to be confident in a townread, hence the weak read. He retracted his town read on Transcend at a very similar time to when I was questioning my Transcend townread, which is obviously not a locked in town tell but I thought it was more likely to be organic considering that I was having similar thoughts.

And The post of yours I linked to was clearly not the post I meant.

His post about the jail keeper claims was what first alerted me to something perhaps being wrong with my read, because it was a whole lot of talking about the claims like a 1v1 situation and coming to a conclusion that did not at all follow from the contentless information preceding it. He has since then had very similar rather talky, but insubstantial posts such as 800, 864 and 972.

The post about waiting to hammer me feels particularly insincere. On the surface it would appear that he is wanting to lynch me but with a bit of bravado thrown in, in that he wants the hammer or whatever. But the problem here is that I don’t think im that close to being lynched. Given Day 1 events it’s quite likely that wagons will shift quite a bit over the course of the day, so the whole thing he says about being the hammer are empty words, a complete lack of commitment to scumreading me and I’m pretty sure he knows that.

The above was mostly written earlier in the day on phone but I didn’t get the chance to post it. I’ll post it now and see what’s been written since.

Bolded

- You did introduce another wagon to the mix - Sheep. Can you explain your 180 on that one btw.

Underlined -

So what was the post you meant?

You said 172 was unlikely to come from scum - have you changed your mind on this now?

Also, why did you at first say you liked Boring's attack on me upon entering the game, but later use it a reason to justify your vote on her?

-----

Overall the response regarding Ecto was pretty fair, so I'm Ok leaving this here for now.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: UCV

This one is more of a gut feeling than anything, as UCV generally looks scummy regardless of alignment, but his posting in this game feels particularly forced as if he's trying too hard to come up with stuff to say.

I'm also in the 'Pr0Hawk is probably scum' camp.

[Luca Blight]

And I'd like input on my observation that Fitz is only putting in self-defence effort, as opposed to game-solving effort. Isn't that ultimately the behavior we look for in scum? Maybe it's the liberal quantities of vodka surging through my blood-stream, but I believe my Fitz-related observations are pretty fucking sweet, and they've been ignored. I'm like this close from straight up pouting over it.

Yes I agree, and I've said the same myself already.

He said in response to me earlier in the game that he doesn't get involved much as he is an 'observational' player, but I don't recall seeing too many observations from him thus far.

[boring]

And I'd like input on my observation that Fitz is only putting in self-defence effort, as opposed to game-solving effort. Isn't that ultimately the behavior we look for in scum? Maybe it's the liberal quantities of vodka surging through my blood-stream, but I believe my Fitz-related observations are pretty fucking sweet, and they've been ignored. I'm like this close from straight up pouting over it.

Yes I agree, and I've said the same myself already.

He said in response to me earlier in the game that he doesn't get involved much as he is an 'observational' player, but I don't recall seeing too many observations from him thus far.

Also, I've played town with him before, and while he didn't spam the game, his efforts went into towny pursuits.

[boring]

I don't know what to fucking do with Kelbris. He's kind of adorable, so I don't want him to be scum, but he could totally be scum, but if he flipped town, that's like zero information, except maybe for the wagon analysis.

Why are you using the information gained from a lynch as a factor. Shouldn’t the priority be lynching scum, regardless of the information obtained?

That seems like an odd thing to single out of my run-on sentence, but okay.

I think my thought at the time was that I'd feel bad if I pursued him and he flipped town because I like him in this game, and so he'd be gone, and I see no advantage right now from him being confirmed town post-mortem. And in general, if I have a choose between relatively equal scum-spects, then I lean toward the one whose flip will give me the best chance of figuring out the game, unless one of them was crazy-disruptive. How can information gained

not

be at least a tertiary factor?

[Ectomancer]

I don't think it's necessarily scummy from boring, but I'm interested in the response to my question.

Oddly enough, I actually get the impression that your post is a scummy misconstrual of

my

intent, considering that I'm pressuring boring, but didn't assign any value judgements to her post. However, you take it beyond that and create this story about how I'm misconstruing her intent.

While I generally favor this response, I think Boring is concise in the following statement about exactly why I suggested the interpretation of your comment that I did.

I don't know what to fucking do with Kelbris. He's kind of adorable, so I don't want him to be scum, but he could totally be scum, but if he flipped town, that's like zero information, except maybe for the wagon analysis.

Why are you using the information gained from a lynch as a factor. Shouldn’t the priority be lynching scum, regardless of the information obtained?

That seems like an odd thing to single out of my run-on sentence, but okay.

I think my thought at the time was that I'd feel bad if I pursued him and he flipped town because I like him in this game, and so he'd be gone, and I see no advantage right now from him being confirmed town post-mortem. And in general, if I have a choose between relatively equal scum-spects, then I lean toward the one whose flip will give me the best chance of figuring out the game, unless one of them was crazy-disruptive. How can information gained

not

be at least a tertiary factor?

[Fishythefish]

OK, cool. I think this is a town move, and endorse Ectomancer as unemotional, analytical hammerer-in-chief.

I’m not as passionate about scum-Ecto as I was yesterday, but why do you think they are town?

I think Ecto's move to not get involved in the fray is something scum wouldn't think of (or wouldn't have the guts to try). That's why I asked if Ecto has done this before - that would have made it pretty null.
---
Why do people think ProHawk is scum? That slot's been a whole lot of nothing AFAIC.
---

And I'd like input on my observation that Fitz is only putting in self-defence effort, as opposed to game-solving effort. Isn't that ultimately the behavior we look for in scum? Maybe it's the liberal quantities of vodka surging through my blood-stream, but I believe my Fitz-related observations are pretty fucking sweet, and they've been ignored. I'm like this close from straight up pouting over it.

If it will stop you pouting - I agree that fitz's highest effort moments have been defence. But I think his effort on other things has been OK, and mounting robust defences is not a scumtell. The only thing I dislike about fitz is his Transcend vote - I'm not sure I quite believe fitz is the type to go for a straight-up policy lynch.

[mutantdevle]

The scum team would love for us to not be scum hunting.

Please point to where I say I want people to stop scum hunting... I can wait. But I'm going to be waiting a while because I never said that nor did I imply it. I was simply stating that I don't trust many people due to my agreement with a lot of points that everyone has been making. This has no effect on anyone else other than me. Currently, I am not really up to voting many people because, although I see suspicion on almost everyone, this suspicion makes me feel like all the wagons are scum motivated.

[mutantdevle]

I've just realised how we can confirm Transcend as scum. I will post that after my reads on people which is what I am doing now.

[havingfitz]

Prodge. Will post nlt tomorrow.

[mutantdevle]

Yuria

- Fuck you Transcend. Yuria was opposing fishy for much of day 1 and later on shifted their focus to boring and kelbris. They also believed that Transcend exposing them as the JK was something scum would do (hence the vote for him at the end).

Ectomancer - Probably one of the people I blame most for the loss of IceGuy. That being said, since Ecto was putting pressure on Ice from the RVS period, I don't think they are scum. I'm okay with Ecto's current stance of not placing votes on people they think are scum unless it is a hammer vote; perhaps they are doing this in acknowledgement of their mistake with IceGuy? In post 547 they said the following: "If IceGuy flips scum, boring is town and Yuria is scum." Since we know that both IceGuy and Yuria are town, perhaps their read on boring is also opposite to what they suggested here? In conclusion, I'm leaning town for Ectomancer but I do not trust them.

IceGuy

- I'm still confused as to why people even thought IceGuy was scum in the first place but there's not really a lot of good we can do about it now. The main people Ice seemed to be suspicious of where Ectomancer and kelbris; though I get the feeling he would not have opposed Ecto so much if they had not opposed him. He also seemed critical of DeasVail at one point so perhaps he would be on that wagon if he was still here now. Finally, he was critical of boring but reached the conclusion that she was town.

DeasVail - I have strongly considered Deas town for the most part of the game. This is because almost all of his posts have given me town vibes and he just generally seems friendly. However, the points Luca Blight made in post #944 made my doubt my opinions on Deas as I felt like I had overlooked some stuff from Luca's analysis. As a result, I no longer trust him but still like to think of him as town.

Transcend - I can't believe Transcend is actually getting away with his actions on the basis that his actions are so bad that they can't possibly be scum because scum wouldn't want to be so obvious. Not only has he had a negative impact on town, but he has no redeeming qualities. He makes no attempt to allow others to understand his opinions, he just tells us to blindly follow him. As a result, he basically contributes nothing. Most of his posts are completely irrelevant, useless, and overall just fluff. This whole "he is so scummy that he can't possibly be scum" thing is bs to me. I think it's well established that Transcend is an experienced player that hits hard or fails dramatically. His experience makes the looking-too-scummy-to-be-scum tactic something that is all the more possible for something he would do as scum. I'd also argue that, since he has been failing hard so far this game, he is probably going to continue to be a negative force towards the town, scum or not. I do legitimately believe he is scum though and it is something that can be proved or rejected during night 3. (I will explain that next post).

Fishythefish - I began the game believing Fishy was town and trusting him. But recently I have been getting a more negative vibe from him that I just can't explain. Having re-read his ISO, I agree with almost everything he said day 1. However, I disagree a lot more with his opinions day 2. Perhaps my more recent lack of agreement with his is what is giving me the negative vibes? I don't really know. But basically, I still think he is town it's just that I no longer trust him.

Elmo TeH AzN

/ boring - I still think boring is scum. We lynched the wrong person day 1; boring should have died in IceGuy's place. Elmo was super scummy to me. Since boring has arrived, her first few posts continued Elmo's direction but after that, she had a few redeeming posts. However, she has just gone downhill for me since then and I'm currently willing to believe that herself and kelbris are on the same team.

Luca Blight - On day 1 Luca was the person I trusted the most. I agreed with almost all of his posts and he was being aggressive so I didn't have to. If boring had been lynched and flipped scum then I would have been willing to write Luca off as being confirmed town (at least in my eyes he would have been). More recently, however, I have found myself disagreeing with more and more of what Luca is saying. Specifically, his clash with Fitz made me lose trust in Luca. So Luca is yet another person I consider town but do not trust.

kelbris - I get scummy vibes from kelbris. I have done from the beginning. His posts don't feel that helpful. I also find it really suspicious that he had been passively defending Elmo day 1 until she got dangerously close to being lynched. At that point, he suddenly seemed to be more critical of her and jumped on the wagon. I see this as something scum would do to hide the fact they are on a team with who just got lynched. I'm willing to bet that boring and kelbris are on a scum team (and if they are then I doubt Transcend would be the third member).

sheepsaysmeep

/ UC Voyager - sheepsaysmeep was mostly okay. All he really did was lurk and occasionally throw in his opinion which didn't do much. At that point, I considered the slot null. But now I am leaning scum. Like seriously UC answer my damn question I asked a few pages ago; I even pointed out you hadn't answered it and you still ignored it. I'm not entirely sure he's adequately answered any of the questions he's been asked. It's like he is purposely avoiding them or answering them poorly. I firmly believe that the only reason you wouldn't answer a question is if you have something to hide. The only people that have something to hide are PR's and scum. I want UC at L-1 so we can find out which it is.

havingfitz - At the start of the game havingfitz gave me scummy vibes and was probably my strongest scum lean (until the Elmo/boring thing kicked off). Now though, I am starting to trust him. He recently got more engaged with the game and put forth some really good points in my opinion. Whilst I am not in a position to trust him yet, I do think he is town.

Lil Uzi Vert

/

Viomi

/

Rem

/ ProHawk - This slot is just a huge NULL for me. Nothing any of them have done has stood out to me and none of them has been around long enough for me to form an opinion. Hopefully, ProHawk is here to stay and can post enough to allow me to form an opinion but so far it isn't looking good.


mutantdevle - I mean, this guy seems like he's in touch with the devil. That's gotta be a scum tell right?


davesaz - It's day 2 and they haven't really contributed anything to the town at all...

Conclusion

Lynch Pool: Transcend, boring, kelbris, UC Voyager.
Non trusted townies: Ectomancer, DeasVail, Fishythefish, Luca Blight, havingfitz.
Null: ProHawk.

[mutantdevle]

I feel like boring, kelbris and UC Voyager could potentially be a scum team, however, I still think Transcend is scum. If Transcend is indeed scum then there wouldn't really be anyone that I feel we could look to as scum based on that. But I think there is a way we can confirm Transcend as scum.

Assuming Yuria CCing as the JK was what Transcend wanted from a scum perspective, it would also mean that he would have tried to bait out a CC with his IC and vig claims.

We know that the JK was in the game.
There is almost certainly going to be an IC.
However, we don't know if a vig exists.

If a vig does exist then I would see it as too much of a coincidence that the 3 roles Transcend has claimed to be (no matter how serious) are the 3 roles that are in the game. Now obviously having a vig claim would be a bad idea just to prove that Transcend is scum. But the vig can prove their existence simply by performing a kill. So if the vig does exist, please kill whoever you think is the most scummy tonight (not Transcend obviously, he will be saved for the lynch candidate).

If there are 2 kills tonight then it means that Transcend is scum. If there is still only 1 kill then I'd be willing to accept the idea that his play is too scummy to be scum.

The obvious counter to this plan is that the scum could decide not to kill to make it seem like there is no vig. But this would only delay the plan for a day or 2 because as soon as we find out a vig exists we know it's time to lynch Transcend.

[Ectomancer]

Yuria

Ectomancer - Probably one of the people I blame most for the loss of IceGuy. That being said, since Ecto was putting pressure on Ice from the RVS period, I don't think they are scum. I'm okay with Ecto's current stance of not placing votes on people they think are scum unless it is a hammer vote; perhaps they are doing this in acknowledgement of their mistake with IceGuy? In post 547 they said the following: "If IceGuy flips scum, boring is town and Yuria is scum." Since we know that both IceGuy and Yuria are town, perhaps their read on boring is also opposite to what they suggested here? In conclusion, I'm leaning town for Ectomancer but I do not trust them.

You've just shaken my confidence. Not enough to slide my needle on Boring, but it was a cold splash of water in the face. There were 3 points to that statement and 2 of them being wrong just made me that much more certain that the 3rd point (Boring is town) was correct.

[Luca Blight]

@Mutant -

please explain what you disagreed with, and what about my clash with Fitz made you lose trust in me.

[boring]

Assuming Yuria CCing as the JK was what Transcend wanted from a scum perspective, it would also mean that he would have tried to bait out a CC with his IC and vig claims.

We know that the JK was in the game.
There is almost certainly going to be an IC.
However, we don't know if a vig exists.

If a vig does exist then I would see it as too much of a coincidence that the 3 roles Transcend has claimed to be (no matter how serious) are the 3 roles that are in the game. Now obviously having a vig claim would be a bad idea just to prove that Transcend is scum. But the vig can prove their existence simply by performing a kill. So if the vig does exist, please kill whoever you think is the most scummy tonight (not Transcend obviously, he will be saved for the lynch candidate).

If there are 2 kills tonight then it means that Transcend is scum. If there is still only 1 kill then I'd be willing to accept the idea that his play is too scummy to be scum.

The obvious counter to this plan is that the scum could decide not to kill to make it seem like there is no vig. But this would only delay the plan for a day or 2 because as soon as we find out a vig exists we know it's time to lynch Transcend.

There are only 5 roles to choose from, right? He's mentioned the 1-shot cop, the JK, the IC, and the Vig. The cop wasn't a claim, but it was a pretty solid mention. That's 4/5 mentioned before you posted your strategy.

Also, if we had a vig, we'd have had two kills N1. With the threat of being killed or lynched before being useful to town, who's going to holster N1? Even assuming the vig had no strong scum reads, with the disruption Transcend caused, the wildcard/information of my slot, and the benefit of killing off questionable lurkers like Rem, who would struggle to pick a target?

[boring]

Yuria

Ectomancer - Probably one of the people I blame most for the loss of IceGuy. That being said, since Ecto was putting pressure on Ice from the RVS period, I don't think they are scum. I'm okay with Ecto's current stance of not placing votes on people they think are scum unless it is a hammer vote; perhaps they are doing this in acknowledgement of their mistake with IceGuy? In post 547 they said the following: "If IceGuy flips scum, boring is town and Yuria is scum." Since we know that both IceGuy and Yuria are town, perhaps their read on boring is also opposite to what they suggested here? In conclusion, I'm leaning town for Ectomancer but I do not trust them.

You've just shaken my confidence. Not enough to slide my needle on Boring, but it was a cold splash of water in the face. There were 3 points to that statement and 2 of them being wrong just made me that much more certain that the 3rd point (Boring is town) was correct.

I've read this like 3 times, and I'm still not sure what you're saying. I know the statement wasn't directed to me, but it seems like you've made a conclusion, and I can't tell what it is.

[boring]

Why do people think ProHawk is scum? That slot's been a whole lot of nothing AFAIC.

I think the high drop-out rate, especially with this being a relatively hostile game, is a mechanical tell. Also, no one's done anything pro-town with the slot. I don't really even see attempts. It leads me to assume that the scum buddies are just asking them to stall and go down easy, as the slot is close to unsalvageable.

Now, the LUV/Viomi/Rem/ProHawk slot isn't my first choice for lynch today. It's still feasible that it's just a cursed VT slot. More significantly, if we can't find someone more prominently scummy to agree on by the end of the day, we're in trouble anyway.

But still, the fact that no one has gone all opportunistic on the slot, despite Transcend pushing for it, and me and Luca verbally supporting it, makes me think scum are avoiding it for a reason.