Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

mutantdevle · Post Post #1700 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:25 am

In post 1693, Fishythefish wrote:@mutant: please could you share which games you are basing that meta of kelbris on? I'd like to check it out myself, and we may as well use the same games.

Ugh, I didn't record which ones I looked at. It was basically his first ever game on the site, his 5 or 6 most recent games. And then I briefly looked at all of his town games before them but mostly skipped them until I had 3 scum games. So basically, at least 6 town games and 3 scum games. I will go back and find them later if I get time.

ProHawk · Post Post #1701 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:55 am

In post 1699, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 1691, ProHawk wrote:If Kelbris isn't scum we might have a better chance seeing my town flip first and then sort Kelbris and Fish later...
What makes you assume that kelbris is town if you are town? Also, I thought you scum read Boring more than you did Fishy so why would it suddenly be between Fishy and Kelbris over who gets lynched?

No, I think there is more controversy around my slot itself which may make things easier to figure out who scum is if ya'll figure out my alignment first. Kelbris being town doesn't have anything to do with me being town.

What I am saying is IF Kelbris is actually town, then it would be better for me to be lynched first than him get lynched first. In the unlikely event that we are both town then scum would be between Boring and Fish.

If I was lynched first, that would leave Boring Kelbris and Fish. I am town-reading Boring much more than Kelbris and Fish, ergo the choice would be between Kelbris and Fish.

Where did you get me scum-reading Boring over Fish?

mutantdevle · Post Post #1702 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:10 am

In post 1674, ProHawk wrote:
In post 1669, Fishythefish wrote:Yeah, I see kelbris's lack of understanding of the setup as a towntell
This is my point. There is literally evidence in the thread that he SHOULD have an understanding of the setup. I am telling you he is throwing a hail-mary and trying to fake town-tells

Because I'm completely stupid...

Post 1680 was also made with that assumption. Ugh, you'd think I'd be able to keep track of small things like this when there aren't so many of us left :/

Fishythefish · Post Post #1703 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:42 am

Tried briefly to meta kelbris. Unless I'm missing something, kelbris doesn't have a completed scum game since early 2015? In which case, I honestly don't think meta on him is going to be very valuable.

@Prohawk: I don't think you argument about lynch order makes much sense. With 1 scum left, you being town doesn't tell us anything very much - if X is unlikely to be scum if you are town, then X is unlikely to be scum already.

I find I don't have terribly much to say. I can't really see what would change my mind in my read order; and particularly, I just don't see myself wanting to lynch boring today or tomorrow - there are far too many moderately good reasons to think she's town.

ProHawk · Post Post #1704 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:15 am

Might not to you, but I think to Boring it would.

boring · Post Post #1705 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:52 pm

I'm going to dredge up our VCs. I think it might be nice to see them all in one place.

boring · Post Post #1706 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:22 pm

VC 1.01 - 1.04

Spoiler:

VC 1.05 - 1.08

Spoiler:

VC 1.09 - 1.12

Spoiler:

VC 1.12 - 1.15

Spoiler:

boring · Post Post #1707 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:23 pm

VC 2.02 - 2.05

Spoiler:

VC 2.06 - 2.08

Spoiler:

boring · Post Post #1708 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:23 pm

Transcend

(5) - Fishythefish,

mutantdevle

,

DeasVail

, boring, kelbris
boring (1) -

Transcend

not voting (3) -

Ectomancer

, ProHawk,

havingfitz

boring · Post Post #1709 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:24 pm

that's Day 3 ^^^

boring · Post Post #1710 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:27 pm

All D4 VCs

Spoiler:

boring · Post Post #1711 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:56 pm

My current thoughts:

1) I was shocked to notice how much time Deas and Sheep/UCV spent on one another's wagon. I didn't recall them particularly pushing one another, like, at all. So to see the votes sitting there seems especially staged.

2) I remember UCV bragging that we wouldn't figure out the scum team. If two of them were putting that much work into distancing (at least in posterity), it would stand to reason that scum #3 was in on it (as far as he was capable).

3) If this was planned, someone had to be planning. Can we attribute this kind of play to those we've already identified as scum (UCV/Sheep and Deas), or is there someone more strategic than them involved?

4) With all that distancing effort on previous days, why would either Kelbris and Prohawk risk being linked to Deas on Day 4 (assuming one is scum)? Were UCV and Sheep both manically strong-arming them into a strategy they abandoned after the slot's departure?

5) There have been a lot of town-on-town wagons. All of our scum have been found through investigation/proactivity on town's part. None have just fallen into our laps. To the contrary, all of the mislynches seem to have fallen into the scum team's lap. Therefore, the last scum wouldn't have been forced to be/seem particularly scummy in order to get to this point.

6) These VCs put Fishy back on the map for me (more accurately, they dampen my scum reads on both Kelbris and Prohawk).

7) Why would UCV be so cocky about a scum team of UCV/Deas/Kelbris, or UCV/Deas/Prohawk? No offence guys, but at that point in the game (and even now), that's not a super-threatening combination. Now, UCV/Deas/Fishy: that's a lot stronger.

8) Today is the last day we can afford a mislynch. If we lynch Fishy today and he's town, we're back to the same decision: Kelbris or Prohawk. If we lynch either Kelbris or Prohawk today, and either flip town, we're a lot more likely to lynch the other in LYLO.

boring · Post Post #1712 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:05 pm

9) If you imagine Fishy in red, the VCs on Days 2 and 4 look just like Day 1.

boring · Post Post #1713 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:06 pm

10) I missed the red on Sheep on VC 1.08.

ProHawk · Post Post #1714 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:21 pm

I think the Sheep/Deas voting bus was just a vote place-holder. I think you mentioned that they didn't really push each other which was absolutely true.

I think your point #7 is a decent one.

For me, the VC for lynching UCV has Fish as first on the wagon which I would feel like would be an unnecessary bus in scum-Fish's position...

What I would like to know from Fish is when did his read of Kelbris from D1 change?

Fishythefish · Post Post #1715 (ISO) » Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:37 pm

@PH: my day 1 read on kelbris was:
- Scummy for a bad vote on Elmo
- Back to somewhere around null after a couple of things pinged me as town
Since then, I think kelbris has become a lot more focused on his own survival, and PoE is biting down harder on people there's no strong reason to think are town.

---

In post 1711, boring wrote:My current thoughts:

1) I was shocked to notice how much time Deas and Sheep/UCV spent on one another's wagon. I didn't recall them particularly pushing one another, like, at all. So to see the votes sitting there seems especially staged.

2) I remember UCV bragging that we wouldn't figure out the scum team. If two of them were putting that much work into distancing (at least in posterity), it would stand to reason that scum #3 was in on it (as far as he was capable).

3) If this was planned, someone had to be planning. Can we attribute this kind of play to those we've already identified as scum (UCV/Sheep and Deas), or is there someone more strategic than them involved?

4) With all that distancing effort on previous days, why would either Kelbris and Prohawk risk being linked to Deas on Day 4 (assuming one is scum)? Were UCV and Sheep both manically strong-arming them into a strategy they abandoned after the slot's departure?

5) There have been a lot of town-on-town wagons. All of our scum have been found through investigation/proactivity on town's part. None have just fallen into our laps. To the contrary, all of the mislynches seem to have fallen into the scum team's lap. Therefore, the last scum wouldn't have been forced to be/seem particularly scummy in order to get to this point.

6) These VCs put Fishy back on the map for me (more accurately, they dampen my scum reads on both Kelbris and Prohawk).

7) Why would UCV be so cocky about a scum team of UCV/Deas/Kelbris, or UCV/Deas/Prohawk? No offence guys, but at that point in the game (and even now), that's not a super-threatening combination. Now, UCV/Deas/Fishy: that's a lot stronger.

8) Today is the last day we can afford a mislynch. If we lynch Fishy today and he's town, we're back to the same decision: Kelbris or Prohawk. If we lynch either Kelbris or Prohawk today, and either flip town, we're a lot more likely to lynch the other in LYLO.

9) If you imagine Fishy in red, the VCs on Days 2 and 4 look just like Day 1.

1) Agreed.

2/7) For anyone else looking for where this is, UCV said the scum would probably win here. Yeah, I think this points to me over anyone else still alive - I also don't think a UCV/DV/boring team was looking all that hot at this point, though that's now changed. I can see a few other explanations - perhaps it was just about the DV/UCV bus, or perhaps UCV is over-confident or lying.

3) Eh. The plan here is "let's bus". I'm not sure the scum needed Machiavelli to come up with that one.

4) The "effort on previous days" was all about distancing UCV from DV. The thing that wastes that effort is surely lynching DV?

5) Agreed. The scum will have been doing whatever they think looks best on mislynches, so it's going to be hard to find them there.

6) That's a pity. Which points feed into that? 2/3/7?

9) What do you mean by that? If you imagine me in red, Day 2 is an unholy orgy of bussing (I voted for scum all day *preens*), whereas Day 1 doesn't have any scum wagons.

One thing I'm struggling with here (related to 4) is what this bussing was supposed to achieve. There was zero effort on Day 4 to leverage the UCV/DV distancing to prevent DV's lynch. DV didn't even talk about that while in flail mode. That makes it less likely that there was some grand plan at work here; if there was, it fell very flat.

---

One other thing that leaps out of that VCA for me is the day 1 boring wagon. It's 100% town (and actually went to L-1 with Transcend in a move that never got recorded in VCs). It then dissolved when Elmo got replaced. I'm not quite sure what to think here:
- If boring is town, scum passed up an easy mislynch by never getting involved.
- If boring is scum, scum risked a buddy being lynched with zero involvement. That doesn't seem that odd, until you remember the sort of distancing that went on between UCV and DV later - I doubt the scumteam would have done that.
So, I think overall I think this is points weakly at boring being town. And actually kelbris - kelbris was under a bit of threat, which means it would be less likely for scum to be happy to pass up the wagon on Elmo.

The other thing that leapt out is the D1 kelbris wagon dissolving. If kelbris is scum, that usual inference would be that scum caused the wagon to disappear - either by hopping of themselves, or ginning up other likely wagons. Here, I can't see how that fits; there's just nothing the scumteam in this case (kelbris/UCV/DV) do to make that happen. So I think this is NAI for kelbris; whether he's town or scum, his wagon disappeared because of town.

boring · Post Post #1716 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 1:32 am

@Fishy - on my phone, so I'll be brief. You make a good point about day 2. Also, I think I saw one VC in there that has a wagon that's literally just UCV, Deas, and you. That's some ballsy shit if you were the scum team.

I noticed too that my wagons Day 1 were all town for a while. But town has a habit of caving to peer pressure in the early game. The easy hammer had to have been tempting for scum. Maybe they kept missing their chance due to poor timing. I've had that problem as scum before.

kelbris · Post Post #1717 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:00 am

I was thinking-IF I were lynched and revealed as town, how would that affect people's reads on the lynch pool? From what I have read, boring is highly unlikely to be scum, leaving it down to sheep and ProHawk. What's everyone's thoughts on this hypothetical scenario?

ProHawk · Post Post #1718 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:15 am

In post 1717, kelbris wrote:sheep and ProHawk

Is this a scum-slip?

boring · Post Post #1719 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:30 am

I'm a little surprised you didn't notice it here, too.

In post 1667, kelbris wrote:Look, I get it. I have made quite a few stupid mistakes this game, however I AM VT, and if you think that lynching me would help, then by all means do it. I know that town can still absorb one mislynch, and I am volunteering myself for that. A fair amount of stuff has been going on IRL, and so I didn't really take notes regarding this game (therefore I forgot about my post from last month). However, I am certain from what Mutant has said, combined with the fact that from what I gather,
sheep is conf-town
, that the lynch pool is myself and ProHawk.

Also, @boring in regards to my flip-flopping between M/F, sometimes I just get a bit mixed up, nothing that should be taken as alignment indicative.

VOTE: Prohawk

I've just been waiting to see if it happens again. Kelbris does seem to have sheep on the mind.

ProHawk · Post Post #1720 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 3:42 am

Oh that's funny, I did miss that one.

davesaz · Post Post #1721 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:21 am

Vote Count 5.3

ProHawk (1) - kelbris
kelbris (1) - ProHawk
not voting (3) - boring, Fishythefish, mutantdevle

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-28 16:00:00)

Fishythefish · Post Post #1722 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:15 am

Huh. kelbris, any idea what made you confuse me and sheep?

mutantdevle · Post Post #1723 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:35 am

I thought nothing of the first time kelbris said sheep instead of fishy as his meta would suggest he often gets player's usernames confused. But now he has said it again, it's more questionable.

Sheep was not a player that stood out. He lurked for the most part and had no significant impact to the game. So I think we all know the only reason kelbris could still have sheep's name on his mind.

ProHawk · Post Post #1724 (ISO) » Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:40 am

He's also still not scum-hunting.