Open 702: Vanilla Nightless Game Over

[Luca Blight]

I see you completely ignored the second line.

You're saying he's scummy for apparently looking for reactions, when that is something that is commonly done in and around RVS.

You are the one who wants to lynch Comm, you are the one using this as your reasoning for suspecting him, therefore the onus is on you to provide something that shows Comm was not really looking for reactions as claimed.

[Sesq]

this is too egregious to continue.

VOTE: Lucky2u

[Lucky2u]

... that just makes it seem like you picked any of the names without pattern and said scum are in there. It makes it look super lazy since there is another wagon at 2 as well so you just picked the top 2 wagons in the VC, by position in format not by vote count amount.

FoS Commknight.

He's lazy for saying scum are on big wagons...


what?

This is so stupid, that all I can say is what

his 38, claiming to be looking for reactions is scum garbage

What do you think is the truth of the scenario? What was comm's actual intent or motivation?

That he wanted to hide

the scuminess

his initial "there is scum in these random names I drew from a hat" post that started this whole interaction

this should probably be implied, but fixing anyway

how is that scummy?

So, in conclusion:

wagoning comm is STUPID
luca is TOWN

Cutting out the middle quotes that had nothing to do with me...

No, he is lazy for just highlighting the top part of the vote count and saying scum is in there. I don't think he put any thought or analysis into it and he sure as hell didn't vocalize any if he did. He never said or made the argument that "scum are on big wagons" even when I questioned him why he chose that group, he just copy pasted the vote count. He wanted to seem like he was contributing but did it in such a dumb fake way.

[Lucky2u]

I see you completely ignored the second line.

You're saying he's scummy for apparently looking for reactions, when that is something that is commonly done in and around RVS.

You are the one who wants to lynch Comm, you are the one using this as your reasoning for suspecting him, therefore the onus is on you to provide something that shows Comm was not really looking for reactions as claimed.

I didn't ignore the second line. Your second line was explaining a basic concept of mafia, what is there to respond to? I don't disagree with it. Scum happen to know that too. They would want to do something that makes it look like thats what they are doing. It's just more wifom.

[Lucky2u]

You're saying he's scummy for apparently looking for reactions,

You're not reading Luca. I think he is scummy for implying that he was looking for reactions after being caught bullshitting an intial post that was meant to look like a contribution. Essentially the same as crashing into the wall and saying "I meant to do that!"

[Sesq]

we've gone so fuck deep into wifom that either option is equally viable. occams razor though

[Sesq]

also the fact that it took you THIS LONG to say anything comprehensible is a fault.

and comm just, does this a lot. regardless of alignment.

[Luca Blight]

I am reading; that was what I meant by the word 'apparently'.

Yes it's wifom, but that's all your vote is based on; it has no substance. You have no evidence Comm wasn't really looking for reactions; it's pure conjecture.

[Sesq]

also by your logic you are just SCUM CAUGHT IN YOUR OWN TRAP MAKING UP REASONS TO GET OUT OOHA AHAHAHAH POPOOOOOOHOHOHOHOHOHOO.

and yeah. that is definitely the case here. that is absolutely what is happening.

[Sesq]

and thats why im voting you SORRY FOR THESE DOUBLE POSTS

[Lucky2u]

also the fact that it took you THIS LONG to say anything comprehensible is a fault.

Who and what is this a comment at? You are ironically incomprehensible in whatever point you are trying to make with this statement.

and comm just, does this a lot. regardless of alignment.

So... meta... great. That's -yaaawwwnnn- such a... convincing... argu... zzzzzZZZZzzzz

[Luca Blight]

Basically 31 could be either scum faking contribution or Town fishing for reactions, which is more likely?

I think contribution could be faked in a much more subtle way.

[Lucky2u]

I am reading; that was what I meant by the word 'apparently'.

Yes it's wifom, but that's all your vote is based on; it has no substance. You have no evidence Comm wasn't really looking for reactions; it's pure conjecture.

We are in a vanilla game, that will have no night kills, and only lynches on day 1. What "evidence" are you expecting us to find exactly Luca?

[Luca Blight]

I am reading; that was what I meant by the word 'apparently'.

Yes it's wifom, but that's all your vote is based on; it has no substance. You have no evidence Comm wasn't really looking for reactions; it's pure conjecture.

We are in a vanilla game, that will have no night kills, and only lynches on day 1. What "evidence" are you expecting us to find exactly Luca?

Something to show his intentions are not as he claimed them to be.

If you're going to vote him for doing something that is pretty usual in RVS then you need to have something to back it up, otherwise you haven't got a leg to stand on.

[Lucky2u]

Something to show his intentions are not as he claimed them to be.

Give me an actual example of this that could happen on Day 1. If you can, find an example in a finished game that did not include any day actions or weird mechanics. I will wait here while you find one.

[Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez]

I'm not particularly scumreading Comm right now; I've played with him before and he is known for being a big-dick type of player, especially when analysing vote-counts.

...Good to know, I'll keep that in mind. (I think I remember reading a game similar to what you describe with you in it)

Well CultOfAthena, allow me to point out my reasoning.

First, what the others have stated also rings true in my mind.

Second, Cy's post is

very

well composed for a scum post. Now, don't get me wrong, I've played games with very convincing scum, but there's always some... drywall sticking out. His post feels genuine.

Third, Meh. Call it gut instinct.

Lastly, I'm going to use my favorite probability device, Punnett's Square. (Yes, I know it's for genetics, but I re-purposed it. It works.) This will be regarding Cy and Comm.

Let us presume the dominant gene would be town, resulting in town being (T). Scum, however would be the "recessive" gene, and thus come out as (s). So, our square would look like this.

TT | Ts
--------
Ts | ss

As we can see, the chances of only scum are fairly slim, at only a 25% chance. The chances of it being only town however, is also at a 25%. However, the chance of it being both town and scum is 50%, making it the most likely. We can also safely presume that at least one of them is town with a 75% chance of it being true. So, if we overlap the majorities, Ts is our most likely bet.

This of course, begs the question: Who is the scum? Well, probability can answer the most likely scum as well.

I will start with cytheflyguy. He has 4 posts as of the writing of this post. 50% of them are active scumhunting, or at least putting some pressure (37 and 39). 25% is the post where he votes Comm for seemingly just rubbing him the wrong way (35), although this is elaborated later in 39. 25% is... well, it's defensive, but fluffy. It's more of a sarcastic/questioning counter to Cult's 'attack', which is slightly fluffy. (50)

All together, of his posts, 75% was productive in some way. I chose to consider him town during the gap between 39 and 50, which is an 11 post gap. This of course, meant that at the time, 100% of his posts were productive in a scumhunting manner. I retain this view until further information is received.

(Although, interestingly enough, cy did

not

vote during RVS)

We then peer at Commknight. He has 7 posts.

4 of these, are defensive posts. 75% are simply while good counters, are very short, and quite frankly, answer none of the questions posed to them (33, 36, 38). The other 25% is fluff. Pure fluffy fluff. (46)

1 of his posts go to RVS, and I'm going to ignore that, as there is little value in that post, although his wording is somewhat peculiar. (Notice, he is the only one to ever mention scum as a reason for RVS).

The other 2 are scumhunting. 50% is making a read on two wagons with tunnel vision as I pointed out earlier. Again, we were hardly out of RVS, what scumreading could there be to be made? (Now, don't get me wrong, sometimes RVS thing can be useful, but too rarely to rely on.) The other 50% is real scumhunting. Yay!

But... it seems like a good post, however the tl;dr to me reads as a rather fluffy post. To me it reads like: There's 4 mafia who really don't wanna get caught. We need to hardproof 5 townies, so town doesn't get mislynched. If mafia works together too early, lose. (Doesn't mafia have daychat? Can't they work together secretly, anyways?)

So, while Comm has a higher quantity of posts, they're also almost pure fluff other than some good points about numbers. On the other hand, almost all of cy's posts are working towards catching the scum. In the end, the 75% wins, and by definition, cy is behaving/posting far more like town.

So, I believe cy is likely town and Comm is likely scum(my) as the probabilities show it that way. However, this can be prone to change and should not be taken seriously in the light of any new groundbreaking slips or evidence. They could also both be town or both scum, but again, I read it as a Ts.

[Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez]

And yes, I do know what tunnel vision is. If I didn't I wouldn't use it.

[Luca Blight]

Something to show his intentions are not as he claimed them to be.

Give me an actual example of this that could happen on Day 1. If you can, find an example in a finished game that did not include any day actions or weird mechanics. I will wait here while you find one.

You're asking for examples of valid reasoning? Jesus.

I'll give you an example of how ridiculous your position is:

Lucky and Comm are both scum - Lucky is bussing his partner. I have absolutely nothing to back this up with but it's D1 so f*ck it, I can say whatever the hell I want.

[Lucky2u]

I am asking you what YOU think valid reasoning is. I've already given you my reasoning, and last I checked I think my own reasoning is valid. Don't dodge the question. Give me an example of what you think valid reasoning is to move forward with a vote right now.

[Luca Blight]

You had no reasoning, just guesswork. There is no particular reason for you to believe Comm is lying about fishing for reactions, and given that everyone fishes for reactions to some degree in RVS you really need to have something to make your vote hold water.

[Sesq]

also the fact that it took you THIS LONG to say anything comprehensible is a fault.

Who and what is this a comment at? You are ironically incomprehensible in whatever point you are trying to make with this statement.

and comm just, does this a lot. regardless of alignment.

So... meta... great. That's -yaaawwwnnn- such a... convincing... argu... zzzzzZZZZzzzz

the worst post in all of mafia

giant fucking wall

you seem to have not accounted for the fact that only a third of players are scum. and this statistical analysis.... it doesnt work. posts dont work like that. people dont work like that. logic doesnt work like that. nothing works like that. the only thing in mafia that even remotely works like that is votes, and even then its fairly inconsistent. and player counts i guess, but you cant do a lot with that. and maybe some other things in different setups but WHATEVER

and ultimately you just make the same conclusion you would have without the math. cy looks productive you and comm looks unproductive to you, because there is ZERO. objectivity in that report of yours. none at all. i think cy is mostly just saying lamist bullshit and meandering while comm is taking a strong but, difficult position and saying exactly what he needs to say with brevity.

hahaha luca broke. i empathize heavily.

[MathBlade]

Votecount 1.3

CommKnight(3)

~ cytheflyguy, Archwing, Lucky2u

mozamis(2)

~ Impede, CultOfAthena

Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez(1)

~ LaserGuy

Sesq(1)

~ CommKnight

Lucky2u(1)

~ Sesq

Impede(1)

~ Luca Blight

Archwing(1)

~ mozamis


Not Voting (2): Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez, lucca261

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2017-12-02 21:30:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 5 calls in 1 seconds. With an average of 0.391 seconds per call.

MOD NOTES

lucca261 has requested replacement. I'm looking for that replacement now.

[cytheflyguy]

@cy
Why did you vote Comm in 35?

Previous games with people like that. I didn't realize it'd end like it did but that's Mafia for you.

[Lucky2u]

You had no reasoning, just guesswork. There is no particular reason for you to believe Comm is lying about fishing for reactions, and given that everyone fishes for reactions to some degree in RVS you really need to have something to make your vote hold water.

Youre still not providing an example, because you can't provide one. We are just evaluating people's reactions in interactions and deciding ourselves wether it's coming from scum or town. Let's turn this around Luca, we are several pages in, what are your reads and why? **disclaimer, I will be using your own logic to your reads, so unless you read the entire playlist as null, I'll expect you to defend your opinions against "There is no particular reason for you to believe that X is Y"

[Zaraki_Jaegerjaquez]

[quote=

you seem to have not accounted for the fact that only a third of players are scum. and this statistical analysis.... it doesnt work. posts dont work like that. people dont work like that. logic doesnt work like that. nothing works like that. the only thing in mafia that even remotely works like that is votes, and even then its fairly inconsistent. and player counts i guess, but you cant do a lot with that. and maybe some other things in different setups but WHATEVER

and ultimately you just make the same conclusion you would have without the math. cy looks productive you and comm looks unproductive to you, because there is ZERO. objectivity in that report of yours. none at all. i think cy is mostly just saying lamist bullshit and meandering while comm is taking a strong but, difficult position and saying exactly what he needs to say with brevity.

[/quote]

I was not referring to the people. I'm referring to the fact there are 2 people who could be scum. There are 4 possible outcomes of their roles. I'm afraid logic does work like that. Logically, thus far cy has been more productive.

However, if you actually read my post, I maybe didn't imply it well enough, but I think comm

is

getting more productive. On the other hand, there is some cy weird things, for instance, their lack of RVS. (This could be attributed to not being online, but it is interesting.) I don't think they're super towny, I will admit some stupidity on my part, but I feel a lean for town on them.

Also, focusing on me much? Oh well.