In post 177, CommKnight wrote:In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

In post 182, CommKnight wrote:So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Onto my reads thus far:

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>

Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>

Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>

Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD