Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

CommKnight
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Post Post #700  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:59 pm

In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).


Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

In post 182, CommKnight wrote:So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Onto my reads thus far:

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,


^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD
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CommKnight
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Post Post #701  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:00 pm

In post 698, Almost50 wrote:
In post 692, CommKnight wrote:Hahhaha, the only Masons I was right about was A50 and Hong.


:lol:

How could you have thought I was a Mason and still thought I got shot at?


Well I was retracting my mason read after that when you didn't seem to pick up on what I was asking of you.
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humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #702  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:00 pm

JunkoChan was such an ML bait even I would hit that
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #703  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:00 pm

In post 700, CommKnight wrote:
In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).


Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

In post 182, CommKnight wrote:So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Onto my reads thus far:

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,


^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD

lmao!
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #704  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:02 pm

In post 695, Alisaes French Maid wrote:I was pretty impressed by how coordinated the town was this game.
Nice job!

Yeah town really did a good ass job here
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
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Post Post #705  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:04 pm

Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.
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Post Post #706  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:04 pm

In post 693, Almost50 wrote:I also would like to thank my fellow Masons for letting me do my stunt at the start of the game. I bet you guys were like "what the freak is he doing?" and then wish that there was a Masons PT to reprimand me for my play.

I dunno about Godel saying he would've shot me. I bet almost everyone else thought I was a VT, apart from my fellow Masons of course.


pretty much gut feeling, same with my other 2 shots, I have had almost no time read for a bit more than a week, I still haven't read all the posts that led up to my lynch, going to catch up on them tomorrow, you guys posted a lot. When I posted my read list I listed the players I thought where mason at the top in hopes that maybe fitz or 2iam will catch on to it if I ever have to shot. But i changed my mind about hongzi later, and thought monkey was more masony

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Post Post #707  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:06 pm

In post 705, CommKnight wrote:Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.


:lol:

Actually, I will PM you shortly about this. :wink:
Records: W/L
Town: 18/15, Mafia: 5/3, 3P: 1/1
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humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #708  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:11 pm

This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
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Post Post #709  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:13 pm

In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?


Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)
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Post Post #710  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:14 pm

In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?


Shameless plug too or my mini normal, first time modding on this site, also 5 or 6 players away from it filling

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Post Post #711  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:17 pm

I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.

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Post Post #712  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:22 pm

In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?


Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)


Is that still Battle of the Bands?

CommKnight
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Post Post #713  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:23 pm

In post 712, Hongzi wrote:
In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?


Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)


Is that still Battle of the Bands?


Yep
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Post Post #714  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:24 pm

I was first to pre-in for Comm's game, if anyone enjoyed my eccentric play. :P
Records: W/L
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Post Post #715  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:25 pm

I've got the required experience to play that now, no bastard experience though.

humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #716  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:25 pm

In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?


Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled. :)

Socrates?

Hongzi wrote:I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.

Awwwwww <3
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

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Post Post #717  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:26 pm

sure why not. I'll join Comm's game
I will inflict you with the pain of a thousand slapping anime girls ~thenewearth

Cassiopedia's Cave in General Mish mash! join the adventure~
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=74385&p=9832908#p9832908

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Post Post #718  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:28 pm

Where is the signup @CommKnight?
I will inflict you with the pain of a thousand slapping anime girls ~thenewearth

Cassiopedia's Cave in General Mish mash! join the adventure~
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=74385&p=9832908#p9832908

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Post Post #719  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:29 pm

I'm too pussy to play bastard games. I kinda like gamesolving and not be at the mercy of plot twists lmao
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

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Post Post #720  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:31 pm

In post 718, JunkoChan wrote:Where is the signup @CommKnight?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66263&start=4075

humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #721  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:44 pm

Hongzi, I'll sheep you this time. Tell me where you'll sign up and I'll go.
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

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Post Post #722  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:47 pm

I signed up for Battle but pick out a game you want to play and I'll sign up for that too!

humaneatingmonkey
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Post Post #723  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:52 pm

Nah let's stick with Battle of the Bands. I kinda feel like this game will fuck me up.
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
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Post Post #724  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:58 pm

I think I might be overfilled now actually looking at it. 4 spots and now 6 ins but the list hasn't been updated in a few days. But I'm sure there'll be 1-2 replaceouts early in the game, always are if you guys want to stay on for replacement queue (we'll see how many confirm when they finally update the list).
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