## Open 703: Masons and Mafia Town Win!

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

In post 182, CommKnight wrote:So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD
Modded
Open 691 (Mafia Win)
Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 698, Almost50 wrote:
In post 692, CommKnight wrote:Hahhaha, the only Masons I was right about was A50 and Hong.

How could you have thought I was a Mason and still thought I got shot at?

Well I was retracting my mason read after that when you didn't seem to pick up on what I was asking of you.
Modded
Open 691 (Mafia Win)
Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
JunkoChan was such an ML bait even I would hit that
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 700, CommKnight wrote:
In post 177, CommKnight wrote:
In post 162, Hongzi wrote: but I did remember that probabilities are multiplicative in sequence. The probability of me drawing the Ace of Spades from a standard card deck and then the Four of Clubs is (1/52) * (1/52), not (2/52).

Mhmm... welll... probability for dice works that way (1/6) * (1/6), but cards are different. Assuming you put the card aside/bottom/anything but reshuffle the deck. It's (1/52) * (1/51) Which is how probability will work in this game. Right now, hitting randomly has a 4/13 chance of hitting scum. Masons have a 4/9 chance of hitting scum. As the game goes on, the numerator only decreases with each scum lynch, while the denominator decreases with every lynch because there's 1 less player each time.

As for a reference, if I'm trying to draw any Spades from a deck of cards, I'll have a 13/52 chance of drawing one. If I fail on the first draw I'll have 13/51 and if I succeed on the next, I'll have 12/50.

In post 182, CommKnight wrote:So we have 13 players currently with 4 scum, 4 masons, 5 VTs.

Not Lynching/TownLeans: <Hongzi, humaneatingmonkey, havingfitz, mozamis>
Neutral: <Almost50, rb, Gamma Emerald, wavemode>
Null-Scum: <MawhrinSkel, JunkoChan, jzhenson93>
Scum: <TwoInAMiilion,

^ My little "Mason" soft to try to draw a scum kill attempt. XD

lmao!
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 695, Alisaes French Maid wrote:I was pretty impressed by how coordinated the town was this game.
Nice job!

Yeah town really did a good ass job here
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.
Modded
Open 691 (Mafia Win)
Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)

MawhrinSkel
Townie

Joined: December 01, 2017
In post 693, Almost50 wrote:I also would like to thank my fellow Masons for letting me do my stunt at the start of the game. I bet you guys were like "what the freak is he doing?" and then wish that there was a Masons PT to reprimand me for my play.

I dunno about Godel saying he would've shot me. I bet almost everyone else thought I was a VT, apart from my fellow Masons of course.

pretty much gut feeling, same with my other 2 shots, I have had almost no time read for a bit more than a week, I still haven't read all the posts that led up to my lynch, going to catch up on them tomorrow, you guys posted a lot. When I posted my read list I listed the players I thought where mason at the top in hopes that maybe fitz or 2iam will catch on to it if I ever have to shot. But i changed my mind about hongzi later, and thought monkey was more masony

Almost50
Survivor

Joined: November 13, 2015
Location: Right here.
Pronoun: He
In post 705, CommKnight wrote:Lesson to take from this: A50 and I make a very deadly town duo.

Records: W/L
Town: 23/17, Mafia: 5/3, 3P: 1/1
Modded 3 games successfully. Now running Overkill 2: A Blood-Thirsty Stallone Themed Game

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.
Modded
Open 691 (Mafia Win)
Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)

MawhrinSkel
Townie

Joined: December 01, 2017
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Shameless plug too or my mini normal, first time modding on this site, also 5 or 6 players away from it filling

Hongzi
Goon

Joined: October 24, 2017
Location: ...space?
Pronoun: He
I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.

Hongzi
Goon

Joined: October 24, 2017
Location: ...space?
Pronoun: He
In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.

Is that still Battle of the Bands?

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 712, Hongzi wrote:
In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.

Is that still Battle of the Bands?

Yep
Modded
Open 691 (Mafia Win)
Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)

Almost50
Survivor

Joined: November 13, 2015
Location: Right here.
Pronoun: He
I was first to pre-in for Comm's game, if anyone enjoyed my eccentric play.
Records: W/L
Town: 23/17, Mafia: 5/3, 3P: 1/1
Modded 3 games successfully. Now running Overkill 2: A Blood-Thirsty Stallone Themed Game

Hongzi
Goon

Joined: October 24, 2017
Location: ...space?
Pronoun: He
I've got the required experience to play that now, no bastard experience though.

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 709, CommKnight wrote:
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote:This is the shortest game I played that isn't Shut Up and Vote.

Anyone up for a next game?

Should join my game in the mini theme queue, we're like 5-6 people away from filled.

Socrates?

Hongzi wrote:I'd be in for yet another Monkey game.

Awwwwww <3
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

JunkoChan
Goon

Joined: November 30, 2017
sure why not. I'll join Comm's game
I will inflict you with the pain of a thousand slapping anime girls ~thenewearth

Cassiopedia's Cave in General Mish mash! join the adventure~
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=74385&p=9832908#p9832908

JunkoChan
Goon

Joined: November 30, 2017
Where is the signup @CommKnight?
I will inflict you with the pain of a thousand slapping anime girls ~thenewearth

Cassiopedia's Cave in General Mish mash! join the adventure~
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=74385&p=9832908#p9832908

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
I'm too pussy to play bastard games. I kinda like gamesolving and not be at the mercy of plot twists lmao
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

MawhrinSkel
Townie

Joined: December 01, 2017
In post 718, JunkoChan wrote:Where is the signup @CommKnight?

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66263&start=4075

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
Hongzi, I'll sheep you this time. Tell me where you'll sign up and I'll go.
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

Hongzi
Goon

Joined: October 24, 2017
Location: ...space?
Pronoun: He
I signed up for Battle but pick out a game you want to play and I'll sign up for that too!

humaneatingmonkey
Mafia Scum

Joined: June 07, 2017
Pronoun: He
Nah let's stick with Battle of the Bands. I kinda feel like this game will fuck me up.
"Looks like i was wrong. He was the monkey that could. He got three obv towns mislynched. What a guy!" - Transcend

CommKnight
Mafia Scum

Joined: January 07, 2017