Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

Sometimes I wish you didn't defend yourself so actively.

bet you'd say the same thing about A50 and momo tbh

The point is that none of this makes any sense, and if you're scumreading me, you have to make it make sense outside of "paranoia". "Paranoia" has been proven time and time again to be a horrible reason for a scumread. It's literally "I'm townreading this person but I'm scared of them as scum".

Okay, great. Then come up with a narrative for me.

This is probably the 7th time I've asked you to do that and you relentlessly decline.

On top of all that you have to explain the Gamma kill when both members of that slot were townreading me, when I thought he was a hider with an inno on sheep, and when I know full well the 2 players that are gonna come in here and start pushing me. FURTHERMORE, Gamma's predecessor even claimed the slot would hide behind you! Hilariously, if I were right about Gamma-hider, SK could've just shot you and take out 2 townies.

I'm doing this because I have massive evidence on my side. I didn't really care about fitz scumreading me (that's natural since I'm calling for his death) or Screenplay doing it (who wasn't even here for D1). But after you've been proven wrong this many times, having been there from the very beginning, I expect more of you than "paranoia".

And for around the 7th time, I'm putting the burden of proof on you.

[Mathdino]

Here's a narrative that makes sense for fitz. I'm half doing this as an example to you and half doing this to show I'm being consistent: This can be done.

fitz early game is NAI.

fitz's catchup is something I'd expect from him as any alignment. Thoughts as he goes. His scumreads are Jay and Impede, classic ML bait. Notably, in his catchup post, his only negative mention of Impede is Impede being the only one actively scumreading fitz. This shows survivor mentality.

After I asked, he then actually went through Impede's ISO and wrote a case. A lot of it relies on shade toward both Impede and Jay, suggesting an association. Clear mafia-hunting but also a lot of confbias. Overall not super scummy.

Then after Jay's claim he switches back to Impede, when, again, half his Impedecase relied on a Jay association and the rest relied on Impede looking fake and flipfloppy (which I'd already cleared on playstyle).

By D2 with the scumflip all of us were basically just looking for associations. His intro post is NAI. Later shows correct understanding of the Hider (I missed this in the moment) and corrects Una. Again this fuckup makes Una almost conftown.

Next catchup post pushes back against my claiming plans on the basis that more info hurts town. He also claims notvig

and leaves room open for still being the vig

, which is actually a huge SK tell in that vig is optimal claim for SK. Then this is some pretty weird shit that I can't really quite explain why is weird yet:

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

1228 advocates for just continually going after scummy people instead of explicitly SK-hunting, suggests SK could've been on Creature lynch. No surprise given that fitz was off the Creature lynch.

1260 tries to clear Red (this is obviously genuine since it's mafia-hunting) but then casually drops "They could still be anti-town (SK) of course...but first things first IMO (i.e. get scum)", which was pretty much unnecessary.

1561 is another catchup that I need help to parse. It seems to suggest that 2T is a possible setup because vig might not have actually claimed, which lends credence to the idea that SK literally doesn't exist. Which is hilarious.

I'm not reading deeply into D3 but the best I can say is that fitz is very much in survival mode right now given that his lynchpool is literally the people who want to lynch him. I don't think I have to explain why this is suspect as hell.

[Mathdino]

I honestly wouldn't blame you if you ended it now. I didn't expect there to be that much material in fitz's ISO but there were definitely more than a few tells on closer look.

This list is likely to some extent correct:

Hawk
Una
Math
Kop
Srceen
Fitz

But at this point I'm having trouble seeing it as anyone other than fitz.

Impede's "oh fuck I don't know how SK decides who to kill" thing I'm pretty sure wasn't made up.

This means that either he's an unreasonably dumb SK (who thinks to himself, hmmm, let's kill the most likely person to be mafia! and shoots A50) or he's cleared.

So lynchpool (unless Hawk is way better at fooling us than I thought) is {Math, fitz, Screen, Kop}. I would be surprised if none of these were confirmable.

So 3 lynches gives a win.

[Mathdino]

While we're at it, my post #815 was a VT breadcrumb inspired by mutantdevle's "THIS IS A REACTION TEST" breadcrumb in a game that A50 and I played together.

Basically I took his post, spoilered some bits, and removed a "V" and added a "T". I expected to be able to use it before my ISO got so expansive that you could theoretically hide anything in there, but I welcome people to try to find early breadcrumbs for any other roles. I think there was a point during D2 where I said that I already claimed my role so the bright side is that you'd only be looking through my first 200 posts.

With this I'm basically proving that, unlike fitz, I never had ANY intention of being able to claim vig or anything else. I purposefully however tried to play my PR game (which is aggressively direct other PRs and pretend that everyone else could be PR) to draw the NK.

[UnaBombaH]

bet you'd say the same thing about A50 and momo tbh

At points yes.
You see, I'm going to come clean now, because it's not going to make any difference anymore.
It doesn't matter whether I would still "suspect" you, or have a "paranoia-scumread" on you.
The matter of fact is that you have been SO vocal in this game, that you have given very little room for our SK to make any noticeable mistakes.

Let me demonstrate: I scumread A50.
I still think that read was somewhat justified, even if it was totally wrong in the end.
Then YOU spend countless posts telling me how stupid it is of me to scumread him, and basically write the defenses FOR HIM. (not saying he couldn't do it himself, he seems like a good player)
Now, what town loses here, compared to letting only him defend himself? (and what led me even further down the path of bad reads and paranoia)
It didn't make me suspect him less - it made me suspect you more. Same with momo at certain points of this game.
By taking such a vocal role in this game, you might have stopped many scum-attempts of "defending" or "attacking" A50/momo/ghost.
Now that most of them have been proven as town, only you remain of that "group", and we have very few telling interactions to push for. (or at least that is how I feel every time I try to reread)
You leading us has most likely been a central part of us nailing the Mafia (and SK killing ghost for that matter ), but I feel like we can only hit the SK by dumb luck at this point.

These are the kind of things I just can't say out loud - I would've wished to see SOMEONE ELSE either call me dumb for still suspecting you, or maybe try to defend you - those are the type of actions I can read.
So now that I have stated WHY I have still, after all of this, kept "pushing" for Dino,

I'm going to make a hypoclaim.

N1 - momo is Vanilla.

N2 - Mathdino is Vanilla

, and therefore not the SK.

[Mathdino]

Meh, that's fair. I welcome the feedback there. I do have particular motivations for being this vocal/dominant.

My perspective is that if I can stop a bad discussion from happening, I will. The availability cascade is a cognitive bias where the more people talk about a belief, the more credence it gets.

I had fairly solidified townreads on A50, momo, and Impede by around end of D1. My concern was that the more that people theorised about scenarios in which they're scum, the more that idea gains undue credibility.

So I try to manipulate town in the opposite direction. By repeating a bunch of townreads and hard-defending them I can focus the conversation on a few much better options. That said, if people make good cases on my townreads, I'll consider, but I consider general paranoia and townbloc-breaking to be anti-town.

Not necessarily scummy

, but anti-town. I tried to sideline you from the conversation because I didn't feel your input was valuable in answering town's main questions (no offence intended, I've also been wrong ). I knew that there was nothing lynchworthy A50/momo/Impede had done, and I also knew lynching them early would be negative utility because
A. If I call them town enough times, scum will just NK them and we won't have to deal with that problem
B. They're the type of players I can read better lategame anyway.

Anyway all that said I totally get the "wanting to see other people react", and if that's your intent, I recommend
1. Not directing your post at me but at other people
2. Asking me not to respond to your case for now so you can see what others think (I'm generally pretty compliant with tests!)
3. Asking specific people instead of posing questions to everyone. It's hard to get a discussion going when no one wants to be the first to get involved in it.

But yeah, that's all fair. You must know that in doing what you're doing, you're likely to get NK'd, but that also helps us if you're VT, so ^_^

[UnaBombaH]

Yea, I see where you're coming from.
My play revolves all around reaction testing/analyzing. Meaning that I might say/do things are actually correct (no matter how many players call me trash for it ), but in the end I'm still more interested in the reactions, than I am in the actual end-result of said action.

[UnaBombaH]

I think we lynch havingfitz today, and then see what SK does overnight if we miss with him.

[Kop]

VOTE: fitz

[Kop]

That's L-1 I believe.

[yessiree]

VC 3.4

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

havingfitz (3) [L-1] -

Mathdino, Impede, Kop

Impede (2) [L-2] -

Hawk, havingfitz

Not voting

- Srceenplay, UnabombaH

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-02-01 17:00:00)

[Srceenplay]

I’ll vote Fitz in 2 hours.

[Srceenplay]

VOTE: Fitz

[yessiree]

VC 3.5 Final

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

havingfitz (4) -

Mathdino, Impede, Kop, Srceenplay

[lynch]

Impede (2) [L-2] -

Hawk, havingfitz

Not voting

- UnabombaH

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-02-01 17:00:00)

[yessiree]

havingfitz has been lynched.

havingfitz was a

Serial Killer

.

[yessiree]

A win condition has been reached!

All threats to the

Town

have been eliminated.

Mathdino, Srceenplay, Hawk, UnaBombaH, sheepsaysmeep, momo, Impede, Almost50, Kop, JaydragonKing, members of the

Town

, have won.

[Mathdino]

Fuck. ing. gottem.

[Mathdino]

Ladies and gentlemen, the first JK9++ win.

@Mod

: I consider this very scumsided for reasons though. C9++ is pretty balanced so we can use that as a baseline.

[Mathdino]

Also Hawk was the PR right?

I was sure Hawk was PR until Una started outright claiming rolecop with an innocent on me, reaction testing the rest of the town.

[yessiree]

Spoiler: Roles

havingfitz

ninja/strongman sk

Mathdino

vanilla townie

Assemblerotws

vanilla townie

Hawk

vanilla townie

UnaBombaH

vanilla townie

RedFlavor

mafia goon

Creature

mafia 1-shot bus driver

BigFinn

vanilla townie

momo

vanilla townie

Impede

vanilla townie

Almost50

town tracker

Kop

town rolecop

JaydragonKing

vanilla townie

[Srceenplay]

Thanks for the game mod.
Gg everyone.
Especially you Mathdino. Gg.

[yessiree]

Spoiler: Night actions

N1
Kop rolecops RedFlavor => vanilla
Almost50 tracks Kop => visited RedFlavor
RedFlavor kills JayDragonKing => successful, target dies
havingfitz kills Almost50 => successful, target dies

N2
Kop rolecop momo => vanilla
Gamma kill momo => successful, target dies
havingfitz kill Gamma => successful, target dies

[yessiree]

Thanks for playing everyone, and shout out to the replacements.

This is

the first

a JK9++ town win in a while.

[Mathdino]

@Mod: I consider this very scumsided for reasons though. C9++ is pretty balanced so we can use that as a baseline.

So taking C9++ as balanced, for reference, they have the roles:
C's: 1-shot Cop --> Cop --> 1-shotCop+Cop
D's: Doc --> 1-shotDoc+Doc --> 2 Docs
V's: 1-shotVig --> Vig --> 1-shotVig+Vig
M's: InnoChild --> Masons --> InnoChild+Masons
B's: Roleblocker --> 1-shotRB+RB

Which correlates to this setup's I, P, K, H, and R.

Any cop is significantly better than a tracker. Trackers can't townclear people and are literally only useful if they follow the kill.

You could argue JK is better than doc but JK can't protect other power roles, and is thus really mainly useful as a WIFOMy roleblocker.

Vengeful is honestly useless in an open setup. Full vig is more anti-town than 1-shot Vig IMO.

Hider is worse than innocent child; its job is basically to die or to try to clear people (which might result in 2 deaths). And masons are OP as fuck.

Rolecop is hilariously worse than Roleblocker. I don't think I need to explain this.

Meanwhile C9++'s scum gets Roleblocker and Godfather as its roles, which are definitely outshadowed by Jack of All Trades (can roleblock but can also dodge investigatives) and Bus Driver (completely messes up leashing).

So yeah C9++ is bueno, JK9++ is no bueno. We got lucky. Creatscum+Redscum was kind of an autoloss for that team. And fitz made way too many mistakes.

[AnonymousGhost]

Freedom!

Even though my faction didn't win, it was such an achievement to go from scummiest slot to towniest!

Because I was obviously doing something right to be getting town read from an almost impossible situation.

@Math - The funny thing was after I left and D2 was in it's twilight, when Screen accused you of forcing a PR to claim, it just occurred to me that I could've done that. XD When you brought up the Hider claim, I was more concerned about someone hiding behind me, specifically the REAL hider, and then dying because I was Mafia rather than gaining the possible credit for claiming a fake PR role and gaining further credit. All in all, probably a good thing I never claimed because town had a role cop. ;D

Big big thanks to the Mod for putting up with all of my monologues! You're great! And a big thanks to Gamma for replacing in! Thanks for a fantastic game peeps!

~ Ghost