Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Srceenplay]

Is math alone in thinking una is sk?

Why are you voting him then?

My interpretation is because you think he killed A50.

Well in all likelihood, SK killed A50.

I think they are scum and already stated that.
So I guess I’m asking every is una
Town
Mafia
Sk

[Impede]

Considering Kop's most recent post - 1460 - was made with the intention to

prevent

a potential hammer... The idea that Kop is scum has kinda fell flat in my mind. Still working on compiling that timeline while multitasking.

UNVOTE: Kop

Scum would almost certainly do this if they knew someone would flip Town. Although this type of behavior is more likely from an EARLY wagon participant than someone who just hops on and then just hops off after realizing it's L-1, it's still NAI I think.

[Impede]

@Impede

Why is Una potentially not the SNK in your mind?

Stay tuned on this. I'm REALLY slowly catching up all day today on this thread because you guys post an F-ton.

[Impede]

what toxic attitude...

Telling people to fuckoff as a defence doesn't do anything to the gamestate.

And doesn't make people scum read you any less.

I actually scumread him less for this haha. Cornered scum about to blow their win condition don't really act like this. Maybe Scum!MiddleSchool!Sheep does though?

[Impede]

that moves me from towniest in the group of likely not scum to a reasonable lynch

then his only decent point is i was on the wagons with potential
not all of them momo i hadnt hopped on screen and i sort of made it clear i wasnt planning to before you said that

Punctuation please. I literally can't read most of your posts.

[Impede]

Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.

Utterly non-game-related: Someone get her a medal please. Ghost is going to make my list of players I really want to play with again.

[Impede]

Why would Una tunnel A50 and then NK him as SK? It's too easy. I have to believe someone wanted to draw attention towards Una, or at a minimum, avoid attention on themselves.

[Mathdino]

Impede, you didn't answer my question earlier (when you were online too, lol)

Talk to me about our different lynch options for today.

[Impede]

Impede, you didn't answer my question earlier (when you were online too, lol)

Talk to me about our different lynch options for today.

I'm online almost all day at work FYI. I keep a browser window dedicated to MS. Doesn't mean I'm paying attention to anything or active. More likely the opposite.

I am strapped for time and feel like my opinion is being colored a lot right now, so I need to do some ISOs to refresh.

However, since you asked:

Easier to start with players I am townblocking: Ghost, Math, Fitz
Players I'm not convinced are Town, but I wouldn't lynch today without convincing (by myself or others): Srceen, Una, Momo, Hawk
Which brings me to:

Sheep

- I really like the Sheep lynch in general (I started it, the rest of you are all posers), but I have pause about his reaction to being at L-2/L-1. Seems towny to me, but I have a REALLY hard time reading sheep (both literally and figuratively). I'm irritated enough with him that I won't move my vote unless I feel like he has a sub-33% chance of flipping scum or the wagon dies off.

Kop

- I've never felt good about Kop this entire game. His behavior around the sheep wagon feels overly methodical and suddenly interested. The "townslip" if you want to call it that by voting Red seems really odd to me... I have a hard time convincing myself it was on purpose, but I also can't convince myself that it came from town.

Feel free to disregard all of that. I really need to develop some interaction-based reads by ISOing a few folks with Creature and also looking for SK motivation. I'll get to it, just not sure it'll be today.

[Impede]

Worth noting that post doesn't consider SK possibilities very well if at all. I have no idea how to hunt for 3rd party scum, and a lot of the genuine scumhunting I throw people in my townblock for could easily come from an SK. Need to rethink things from a different perspective and maybe try to come up with a SK readslist.

[AnonymousGhost]

Creating a record of all the times that people mention 2 mafi, 3 mafi, SK, or no SK.

Utterly non-game-related: Someone get her a medal please. Ghost is going to make my list of players I really want to play with again.

I take my payment in the form of cookies.

Related to the game: The lists - the people vs DinoPede & Kop, fitz, hawk, Screen, and Dino mentions of mafi #s + SK or no SK mentions - should be up in a few hours.

[Impede]

This thought just occurred to me... if an SK is genuinely scumhunting, one would expect them to be honest about their reads, yes? They have nothing to hide, no one to protect, they want to lynch maf. If we look at A50 as an SK kill (seems highly likely), I think there's a decent chance the SK actually thought A50 was scum. This is especially true of a N1 NK, as they would be less concerned with people SK-hunting, and even if they were cornered based on their reads, they could easily WIFOM their way out of it.

This means a few observations are probably true:
1) The SK would have most likely been present on the Creature wagon unless genuinely convinced he wasn't maf.
2) The SK would have to be decently convinced on scum!A50 -AND- been convinced that they couldn't get town to lynch him (why waste an NK on a foregone conclusion?)

Now, forgive me for probably being stupid and redundant, but this forces me to retract my point on Una earlier. This makes Una seem quite sus if you accept this logic.

I think SK is all but guaranteed to be in a slot that isn't highly polarizing, and probably especially likely to be flying under the radar with some genuine scumhunting thrown in. Candidates: Hawk, Kop, Ghost, Una. Added candidate because paranoia: Math

Willing to remove Hawk, as I think there's no way he would've shot A50.
Kop seemed to suspect A50, not a top scumread, but still... and A50 was his hider target... Plausible.
Red/Ghost seems plausible based on both Red's behavior, and Ghost's. Although that D1 hammer was a bit ballsy for an SK.
Una is far and away the most likely I think.

[Mathdino]

SK would be an absolute idiot to think that killing off the rest of the mafia at night is in any way a good call.

Glad to see Impede's not SK though.

Impede, talk to me about your reads on Screenplay and Una independently of SK hunting (so in terms of mafia). You claimed that Una is likely mafia and then flipped to townreading him.

[Mathdino]

SK most likely thought A50 is town.

You're gonna hate me for saying this, but A50 would easily be my first shot if I were SK. Would save from the awkward question on D2 of wtf to do with him. Strong player too.

[Impede]

Wait eff... Una wasn't on the Creature wagon. But he seems to have believed that Creature was genuinely town, so that might be OK. Also, makes the lynch slightly more appealing because there's some interesting Creature/Una associatives.

pedit: ffs... so I know nothing about optimal SK play. Disregard all of this.

[Impede]

I think the Una/Creature scumteam makes sense. Idk wtf the rest of you are on about saying that it's impossible. I see lots of a little nuggets in their ISOs. 278, 316, 745, 1352, 952

[havingfitz]

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

Can you elaborate on this comment?

[Mathdino]

Recent revelations unfortunately leave fitz out of the townbloc.

Can you elaborate on this comment?

The supposed townslip was predicated on me proving (by someone answering "yes" to my question) that there were 2 scum remaining.

You assumed throughout the day that there was 1 scum remaining. Your logic on that didn't really make sense so it looked pretty unfakeable. Figured you were conftown if 2 scum left.

Now that you were literally the only person strongly assuming 1 scum remaining, it makes sense that you would think that's somehow the only possibility.

I'm not saying you scumslipped, but you unfortunately didn't townslip. I don't see any reason to rule you out from being Creature's partner.

[AnonymousGhost]

Day One Mentions of 2 or 3 Scum Team + Mentions of SK or No SK

Spoiler: havingfitz

Spoiler: Catch up -

So not much worth comment (IMO) up till the middle of page 2.

Post 38 by Kop seems a bit disingenuous so I voted him.

A little closer look shows Kop tends to participate in RVS when he makes an early appearance. Granted I do not recall if any of the few examples I found were him as scum…but there were def a few examples of him doing it as town.

I didn't care for Impede's Post 46 for the same reason I didn't like the Kop post. IMO if you think something might of happened in the game…and it can be ascertained fairly easily by looking for yourself…then to act a certain way in a post without just checking for yourself strikes a nerve with me.

wrt Math's post 54..I actually had reasons beyond policy lynching for voting Kop. I wouldn't endorse a PL on him unless he pulled a disappearing act or was being otherwise useless.

The survivor discussion is going on longer than it needed to….ffs.

Nice of Math to try moving things ahead in post 79. Not sure I cared for this post. Seemed a bit wishy washy on what “reads” he did provide.

Kind of like Impede calling out Math for calling him town.

Good post by Kop in post 90.

Hello Hawk. I neither missed or not missed you. Good to see you again.

wrt BigFinn’s contribution… <crickets>

I was starting to get tired of Jay’s game around post 115 and Math votes in in the very nex post. Makes me feel a bit better about Math. Seems like he is thinking similarly to me.

Liking Kop as of round page 6.

Almost50 is doing a lot of patting himself on the back.

Post 144 is more of Math saying stuff I am in line with. tr Math.

@ impede...why am I one of your two scum reads?

UnaBomb is just kind of in the game. Starting to suspect him a bit. (subsequent posts have me leaning town on him)

Almost50’s vote on Red feels like scum voting someone they know is going to flip town. (as Una notes in the next post…+ towards Una)

Jay’s post 178 makes me want to lynch him.

wrt Math’s post 179…good math you have there Math. In the right circumstances I like hypoclaims. This seems like a good game to do one.

If I am hider I will hide behind Assembler.

Not a fan of Jay’s hider chat (185, 187).

If I am hider I will hide behind RedFlavor.

Reads:

Townleans – Math, Una, Kop, …………………………..momo
Needs sorting (t-s) – Creature, Hawk, Assembler, Almost
Undecided….need to ISO - RedFlavor
Suspect – Jay, Impede

VOTE: Jay

Spoiler: Kop

Everybody wants to live, whether you be town, scum, or SK.

But if your town, dying isn't the be all end all but if it is beneficial and something comes from it, it is easier to take and accept. Remember, you are playing to your win con, if you die and it is achieved, reality is, you played your part.

Spoiler: MathDino

[quote="In post 173, Mathdino”]SNIP
Tbh if Kop is scum then Red is probably not scum with him but we have no information so fuck pre-flip associatives.[/quote]

SNIP

A50 and Hawk are in that boat (fitz too but less so since I'm townreading him); I could scumread them, and I'm having serious trouble reading them now, but that's D1 syndrome. When players like that are scum, I usually catch them D2.

Gimme a different scumread to work with.

I'm not comfortable coming up with a set of 3 consistent scumreads while there are still a few players that are unreadably inactive.

I agree with whoever said that this game doesn't really have anyone who *pops*. It's getting me to start thinking in good lynches rather than massive scumreads. Honestly, my only solid scumread is Red. Jay and maybe Creature are just good lynches.

I don't really give a shit if they're lynched:

Impede: I'm almost convinced on him but not yet. I wanna see where this argument goes. Null for now.

Jaydragon: Not super readable, but is at least acting a little pro-town. Constantly holding a lynch over his head seems to have some utility, so here it is. I'm semi-convinced by Kop suggesting that we save Jay for tomorrow tbh.

Creature

: Upon ISOing him, throwing out townreads without having a real scumhunty goal in mind is a HUGE red flag for me.

@Creature:

You need to give scumreads. Right now, you're not really in the game.
_______________________________

God I feel bad but this is the only real scumread that's popped out:

RedFlavor

: I gave a case on him already. Posts since that case are all posts that I feel have some good scum motivation. Throwing suspicion while taking credit for an unpopular opinion (don't lynch Jay guys, that's ML bait).

I feel like a damn hypocrite for thinking this, because Impede is reacting almost exactly the same way I am, but if Jay flips scum, I'd be more than willing to check out Impede for scum.

Couple things for Jay on playing power role:

1. Do not say who you're going to shoot. This gives potential mafia bus driver an opportunity to swap your target with some random other person.
2. If it's incredibly obvious to everyone who you're gonna shoot (I'm not gonna coach you on vig strategies but a few things are pretty obv), a tactic I sometimes like to use is dice-shooting from a publicised list of 2 or 3 targets. This also gives hiders the opportunity to decide not to hide behind someone you might shoot.
3. The fact that you exist makes it more likely there's a Mafia JOAT who'll roleblock you. So if you get RB'd, and you're still alive, you'll get another chance to shoot on N2. If you haven't shot by then, we're obviously lynching you.

Edit: Hardclaim was the right call. By posting intent to hammer I was essentially asking for one.

@sheep: I wouldn't worry about it. A50's logic is pretty much balls. New reads list in order looks like:

Town: Jay, Una, momo, fitz, Kop
Null-town: sheep, Hawk
Null: Impede, A50, Creature
Scum: Red, Assemble

For anyone interested, Binomial Theorem and probability shenanigans dictate that the chances for the mafia team are:

55.1%: Goon, Goon, JOAT
22.8%: Goon, JOAT, 1-shot Bus Driver
22.0%: Goon, 1-shot Bus Driver

So my best guess is... 2 scum off the wagon and 1 scum (Assemble) on the wagon. Something like that.

This reflects badly on Una, I'll concede that. His behaviour around Jay is really weird.
Giving A50 the benefit of the doubt. That's not a lynch that's happening today.
Hawk is null in relation to the wagon.
Creature hasn't contributed shit, so of course he wasn't on the wagon.
RedFlavor had kind of a random reason to strong townread Jay. Might be confbias but this counts as the "scum who suspiciously knows Jay is town".
Kop had really good reasons for being off the wagon I think. However, the Kop-scum situation I can think of is "Jay might be SK, so let's wait til tomorrow to see if we should lynch him". Paranoia.

Of those on the wagon:
I'm town. ISO me if you wanna do my blurb.
havingfitz had a whole bunch of reasons. His vote seemed to have purpose.
sheep's vote was explicitly for pressure. Says he got a bad OMGUS afterward. I believe this.
Impede voted in response to Jay's case on Creature, says it was full of OMGUS. Didn't like the survival play. Impede is a controversial topic. Not gonna go too far into this until I have something more readable.
momo fucking clearly believed he was onto something.
Assemble's vote was obviously the most opportunistic point to jump on.

OKAY

So we have Impede fencesitting on RedFlavor, Impede soft-defending AND chainsaw defending Creature (while voting Jay as an alternative), RedFlavor throwing out a scumread on Impede, Creature fencesitting on Impede, Creature soft-defending RedFlavor, and RedFlavor voting/pressuring Creature.

So there's 2/3 of the scumteam in here right? Or am I crazy?

Spoiler: Hawk

Omg finally caught up y'all like to wall post too much.

So jay is town.
I'm glad I wasn't here cause I would have voted him after momo' s remarkable display of out there logic that I wouldn't expect from scum ever.

Creatures lurking but usually at least puts forth things like forming his townlist. In the one scum game where I was scum with Momo and we had a hard distance created between the two of us Creature was just as quiet and Lurky but put forth a different kind of effort maybe he's turned off by all the walls. Idk.

Fitz I'll wait to evaluate further but I think he has a scumtell that I've noticed about his meta but don't want to say until I'm more certain...

Almost50 seems townish... not sure what to take on him. Up until his reaction to sheep voting Red I thought it was fine. All of that emotion in saying things are bad and players are playing bad felt fake on first read. Thus Townish? Maybe more null... idk that was the main scummy thing I saw maybe I'm just reading too much into it.

Sheep is a weak poster but I to disdain these walls. Makes quoting hard and analysis harder

Una is forgettable even when I read their posts so that feels scummy.

Assemble is probably scum. The vote post is super forced and bad.

VOTE: Assemble

Impede I need to look over again. And I could also do Creature.

i no longer agree with that statement, i'll be relatively un-okay with lynching impede tomorrow unless he starts acting scummy

at the time though i was mostly arguing with whoever suggested that impede/creature are scum together, and i was being like "no that sounds wrong, impedescum is consistent with creaturetown"

Edit: congrats you found my "nullreading then scumreading with the consensus then townreading upon actual analysis" behaviour

I'm getting cold feet on the Creature thing. This is half a compromise lynch. His reads are consistent with himself.

I'm beginning to think others (Kop, fitz) are more likely to flip scum but this is still the highest utility.

I think it's important that Creature claim and push someone.

Spoiler: Screen

The question was for jay.

SK is possible in this setup, right?

If any one knows that there is an sk it would be scum, right?

Momo is eh
Sheep has lived up to their name. Plus page tops.
Math feels like a town leader type scum
Jay can potentially be sk. D1 vig claim in my experience isn’t town.

Day Two Mentions of 2 or 3 Scum Team + Mentions of SK or No SK - Before Dino Figured the Set Up

Spoiler: MathDino

What? No. Is everyone playing lazy?

At the very least Una and Hawk's total ignorance implies town because they'd have had time to talk about this last night.

We agreed that regardless of who we lynch, we'd "close the loop". That is, whoever claims they'll hide behind Creature will instead hide behind Creature's target.

Creature claimed he'd hide behind Hawk so that means A50 should've hid behind Hawk. He made a post earlier indicating that he completely understood this and I made a post directing all the hiders in twilight. I see absolutely no reason to believe he'd diverge from his plan.

So either BOTH scum didn't realise this or talk about it at night, or Una/Hawk are both town.

okay that also clears fitz

the question is do i believe that both mafia would be this lazy in their PR hunting

i'm amazing at PR hunting so i know i wouldn't but i legit don't know what people do as mafia without me

hmmmmmmmm

Okay so if I include all 3 of you in my townbloc that makes {me, Una, Hawk, fitz, momo} with outside nulltowner {Impede}. Creates a lynchpool of 4. {Kop, sheep, Screen, RedFlavor}.

Not satisfactory yet but this is actually a great start.

If anyone thinks that BOTH mafia are in {Una, Hawk, fitz} please say something

Dumb. Dumb af.

Math may as well be conftown

. What’s your case?

WAIT NOPE DONT DO THIS TO ME DUDE I DONT WANNA GET PARANOID ABOUT YOU

explain this

if it's literally just because you townread me that doesn't make me conftown

also give me a scumteam

Edit: are you rolefishing me now what

oh yeah and highkey though this probably still holds weight

caught the scum in {Creature, Red, A50} and i await momo's explanation for why CREATURE AND REDFLAVOR ARE DEFINITELY SCUM TOGETHER

but like, it's probably kop and screenplay honestly

can we get more kop votes pls

Fitz is probably actually town. If you still want me to explain why he could be scum (or why I'm pretty sure scum's in {Kop, fitz}) lemme know.

Found this last night and this is a major pointer because I think I've found something that Creature wouldn't do intentionally. His apathy makes it unlikely to me that he was putting much effort into distancing.

3- According to you, you have been working by PoE. Who do you still have in your lynch pool after removing your Town leans?

I agree with the townblock besides Hawk, so that leaves RedFlavor, Assemble, Kop, you, UnaBombaH and Impede. I'd probably remove Impede by myself.

momo town
Creature town
RedFlavor can be lynched
sheepsaysmeep town
Srceenplay town I guess

Kop null

Almost50 paranoid of
UnaBombaH seemed town
Hawk I remember not liking
havingfitz I remember townreading, but not sure now
Impede I haven't decided yet
Mathdino town
JaydragonKing town obviously

this is very clearly horrible, Kop is his ONLY nullread but is also in his lynchpool

anyway that's the only mention of Kop in creature's ISO but i'll get to Kop himself in a sec

Wait fuck we're in potential MyLo if there are 3 mafia and 1 SK. What we need is a way of finding out, without the lone power role just outing themselves.

We also need PoE. I think a partial massclaim is in order. We only need one claim to definitively prove the 1T theory.

If you are any of the following roles, please ONLY ONE OF YOU (ideally the scummiest) claim now so we know:

1-shot Tracker
1-shot Commuter
Vengeful
Vigilante
Gunsmith

My logic is that 5 PRs remaining MUST be distributed among Investigation, Protection, Hiding, Killing, and Flavour Cop. Since we already have a dead investigation, one of these categories MUST have doubles by Pigeonhole Principle.

I obviously claim none of those or I would've said something by now.

i'm really not at the top of my game in this game

We're not in MyLo because we lynched scum. I was doing the math as if we'd lynched town.

Still, if we lynch town today that puts us in 6v2v1 and 2 town deaths creates a 4v2v1 LyLo in which we're forced to try to hit the SK, which is gross. I think it's important to know what setup we're playing.

No yeah we're currently in 7v2v1, I fucked up, that's not LyLo/MyLo at all.

That said I still believe anyone with a role in that list should claim.

It's extremely important to remaining scumhunting to know if the mafia team has 3 members or 2.

If it has 3, and we have 5 town PRs remaining, this game might be breakable by massclaim.

Edit: Town lynch today results in LyLo. That much is clear.

As a final addendum, if we prove by lack of claims that we're definitively in 5T (god I hope so), will that be good enough to you to clear me from that argument? If everyone pops in here and claims "I'm not any of those roles", I'll run the stats on the setups again, and I believe I can show that 5T is almost guaranteed from the spectator's perspective.

It fishes people who don't have a solid grasp of the setup or possible setups into admitting they may or may not have a roll. If you are the sole other mafia member calling for any amount of claiming under the premise we are in xv2v1 gives you a called shot and if you have one partner left you know that there is at least one of the roles you mentioned and you call it forward and if you manage to get lucky and pull an investigative (basically all of the ones you listed) and we are under 1t your JOAT can take a strongarm shot through protective rendering our newly claimed Town investigative more moot while waiting yourself up well enough as town leader.

Thanks for addressing the actual setup stuff. In terms of fishing people who don't have a solid grasp, I think EVERYONE should admit they may or may not have a role (WIFOM), and would be pretty vigilant in policing people to only claim yes/no to the roles in that list. My expectation is that most people are resistant to any types of claiming anyway, but c'est la vie.

If you're willing to follow, I'll show why scum would have a difficult time benefiting.

If I am the sole mafia member: Then it is literally almost impossible for most of those roles to exist (1-shot Tracker is the only possible one). That is why I'm asking only for those roles. If you'd like me to go through each role, let me know.

If I am in a 2 person mafia team: This is where it gets interesting. I don't know what you mean by "call it forward". On the suggestion that I would strongmankill whomever claims, why would I not have used the strongmankill on Jay? Knowing there are so many power roles (because I'd know it's 1T), wouldn't that be the correct time to use it? Ninja is useless because tracker is useless. And if I'm scum, unless you think my partner is in Jay's kill list, I have no reason to roleblock him and stop the vig.

To go through each roll I suggested:
1- shot Tracker: I would be really surprised if they hadn't used this already. Another part of the reason I wanted this claim is because I'm interested this result. Anyway if they already had used this, they function as a named townie, which isn't an ideal kill and would also prob be protected.

1-shot Commuter: Can avoid strongman kills and kills in general. Can also WIFOM when exactly they did or will commute. 1-shot Commuter claim is anti-scum.

Vengeful: Vengefuls should be lynched anyway. They didn't counterclaim Jay yesterday so I'm confident this doesn't exist.

Vigilante: HIGHLY suspect. I'd probably just lynch this unless we have a Vengeful to back this up. This is almost impossible.

Gunsmith: I will give you this, but it relies on 2 letters in the setup coming out of a 5% probability, which has a *gets calculator* ~3.0% probability.

Tracker: I will also give you this, but that relies on 2 MORE letters in the setup being a I (besides A50's I), which has a *gets calculator* ~9.8% probability. So not bad I guess.

So my conclusion is that my idea is only pro-scum if there's another Tracker out there.

Do you believe that I would attempt to implement a plan to benefit scum without doing prior calculations as to whether it's strictly anti-scum?
Furthermore, do you think I wouldn't try to use a massclaim to confirm myself in some way (whether by results or PoE)?
FURTHERMORE, if there are 5 PRs left (and 3/10 scum), do you really not think a massclaim would be a MASSIVE benefit? My intention if someone claims one of the roles I listed is to poll the town as to whether they want to create a massclaim that PoE's scum down so hard that scum/SK can't whittle down the confirmeds faster than we can lynch them. Many 1T setups under this semi-open are near breakable. It would depend on what the claims are.

I still like this PoE. For those of you watching at home, by my own analysis, from a spectator's point of view, I'm in the {Assemble, Impede, Hawk} section.

If there's 1 mafia left, that implicates the Impede wagon and RedFlavor.

2 mafia implies, I think, {Screenplay, Impede, Hawk} and {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una, Red}.

Now that Kop is here, I have absolutely no motivation to complete the Kopcase, and will post the draft I had saved below for bookkeeping.

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

All 3 of you fucked up in the same way. You didn't see that I had already directed A50's hider target, and he had, a long time ago, agreed to hide behind whoever Creature chose to hide behind if we lynched Creature.

This is not something that mafia doesn't notice. I'm townreading Una/Hawk already and I find it hard to believe fitz and some other mafia member doesn't catch that since it's literally in my last posts of the day. Now that only works if there's 2 mafia left, which I had been assuming for a while.

So basically either both mafia fucked that up somehow (meaning both mafia in the 3 of you) or neither did, because one of you would've been corrected by the other one in trying to decide the NK.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any?

Scum already knows whether we have 1T or 5T. We don't. This is a massive scumhunting disadvantage and is evidenced by the above "neither or both" idea, which only works under 1T. Plus I'm pretty sure I can break the setup if this is 1T. Unfortunately this looks like it's gonna be a group super resistant to claims.
Honestly what's probably gonna happen at this point is whomever's on the stand will claim a PR and this will lead to desired massclaimesque strategy anyway to prove/disprove them.

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

I was asked to calculate the probability of each setup. Made a few mistakes but found that, to an observer, 1T vs 5T is 50/50.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

Look I'm trying to rule out 2T but if you keep waffling on claiming vig then I have no idea. The longer we wait, the significantly more effective it'll be for mafia/SK to fuck up our setup spec through planning and believable fakeclaiming. I'm at the point where I straight up won't believe any vigs that ever claim (and will assume they're SK instead) if you don't definitively claim in the next post.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

[catty]hey dude if you're vig then dying tonight is pro-town based on switch [/catty]

If there's a vig then we know there's no SK, which means we're for sure in 2T. This is a HUGE advantage when the inevitable massclaim comes because we'll be able to popcorn and sort everyone into potential PRs and VTs. This creates lynchpools. If scum all claims VT, then all our PRs (as long as the setup makes sense) are confirmed. If scum starts claiming some PRs, we'll know (because the setup won't make sense), and then we either confirm all the PRs or see if any scum can still be VTs. I've thought this through, lol.

Vig should probably be protected tonight if there is one but I really heavily don't believe there's a vig based on dayplay thus far so I'm really not concerned with people claiming not vig.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

This is a pretty good tl;dr of what I'm trying to do. Most semi-opens are broken in half by massclaim if enough PRs are alive.

I've given up on getting everyone to claim from my fancy list because clearly a bunch of people are gonna decide it's more worth their time to argue with me over it than do the simple process. If we find scum, they'll probably claim PR, and that's good enough for me.

Oh...and

I am not the vig

.

But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

This is ridiculous. If you're on the stand and claim vig later you won't be believed (no reason to think you're not SK, and you should've cc'd Jay). Please be clear.

like it's probably impede or una actually since they're both clearly not mafia
idk if una kills his scumreads as scum tho

and yeah fitz is weird but one of you 3 is gonna get shot i'm sure so i don't really care about looking there yet

can i get a good case on scum-motivation-sheep that makes this more than a policy lynch
he's annoying by default but that's not lynchworthy in itself. null-scum to me

reads list (for mafia not SK)

momo
Hawk
Impede
Una

fitz
sheep
Ghost (by slot not by her)

Kop
Screenplay

Kop/Screenplay would be a weird fucking team so I'm not doing the momo-style "All my scumreads are scum" thing. But Screenplay seems most likely to flip scum.

Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.

TTTTT = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Serial Killer

1T is possible. The fact that no one claimed the roles I listed is useless because this playerlist seems to hate claim ideas. 1T would involve Maf Goon, Maf Bus Driver, Maf JOAT, and SK.

I'm heavily leaning towards doing the minimalist claim idea so we can definitively prove how many scum there are. There are more than a few players assuming one way or the other that can definitely be read based on which setup is correct.

Spoiler: Hawk

Almost 50 getting shot is unfortunate...

So we have an SK or does a real Vig want to claim one of those shots? Dino being alive is slightly unexpected as well but I suppose maybe Scum was worried about protectives.

Pedit: how did it mess up our hider strat?? Sorry I'm not great at setup strats. And don't get why it messed it up.

I thought you didn't play a lot on weekends Fitz...
Did you and creature decide to be the most apathetic scum pair ever and see if town tears itself apart??

A50 hypoclaimed Creature as his hider target. So as far as Mafia knew they didn't know where he was hiding so shooting him would be the best chance tonight. Also Mafia would know if their is SK or not based off their role thread so shooting at a hider and missing would be fine cover if SK shot elsewhere

Actually wait no I'm wrong... Mafia wouldn't know if there is SK, I can't read these damn setups -_- I assumed that there was no 3 or 2 setup with both SK and 1shot bus but there is.

Double check your Math again... and then tell me if you're sure were in 6v2v1 lylo

Actually nah VOTE: Math Dino

Role fishing. Calling for a PR to claim in attempt to sort the setup. Implies he is VT or would claim VT if ran up.

Too much information. Messes up a conceivable amount of times with the setup spec but one thing remains consistent is that we are xv2v1. TTTTT is still a potential at a 50% rate. If Math is VT then he should lean even more heavily that we are TTTTT which only has 2 mafia and an SK. Making our current setup 8v1v1. But Math heavily believes we are 7v2v1.

Scum leader? Maybe... I don't like Screenplay either but as a scum player replacing in attempting to come in stand firm and vote towards the most widely townread player and call him scumleader?

someone correct me if I'm seeing things but this just feels right all of a sudden.

Pedit:.... Well you addressed my concern you were neglecting that 5t is 8v1v1.... but still :/

UNVOTE:

Not vig. Sufficient to say I'm not entirely convinced but I'm more willing to explore other options... Tho I swear to god Math Dino if that was an actual scumslip I'll never townread your shit again.

I'll post more later. Also sheep I thought slipped but it might be possible I was the only one semi following all the spec talk and caught that we can't assume 2 maf.

Also Impede were saying there is SK because at this point unless Fitz or Kop failed to claim everyone has chimed in that they aren't Vig or had ample time to claim.

Vig should only claim if they shot Jay or A50... Because it should in theory rule out any setup with an SK which is beneficial for Town.

If we leave it as is with a tracker flip scum team might know quite a bit more about the setup than we so and the # of potential PRs left.

That's the only reason Vig should claim.

But if no one's claiming vig then we should just for now assume we have an SK and play accordingly.

I actually at this point suggest we drop the Vig talk because far as I can see everyone claimed not vig.

Moving forward the setup is either 5t or 1t if we assume a serial killer at which point no one should claim shit now and we should move forward with analysis and lynching.

I don't like sheep. Didn't like Screenplay's predecessor but I want more from him a I can't read that slot well.

Kop I'm unsure of but Null is a good place. Impede Math and Fitz can be town for now if fitz keeps this up

Spoiler: havingfitz

Catching up from my post 1081.

@Hawk...my weekends are usually little to no posting by me for family reasons but
I'm flying solo the next two weekends. So depending on what "more fun to do then mafia" things I can commit to...I should be able to carve out some time to do mafia stuff.

@Math...why do you ask is people think BOTH mafia are in the three players you are
suggesting a townbloc with? (i.e. Una, Hawk, fitz) Why BOTH? Why not one? Is it BOTH or none for some reason? Also...why am I clear again?

@Impede...I think Math is town but I don't think he is conftown by any means. I
assume Math is as active both as scum and town.
1114 tones it down. ok.

I like Impede's case on sheep.

@Math...why are we trying to figure out the set up exactly? Isn't the more information scum has to work with wrt what town has and who in town might have it a bad thing? I'm usually ok with the one off claim when a guilty happens or to avoid a
mislynch...but this seems early. Especially when scum might be on the ropes a bit already. Why help them any? And 1113,
1133,
1148,
1151,
1157, 1160,
1161, 1165,
1175...etc...etc...etc...

@Srceen...are you asking for our potential hider to claim?

Math doing math. Moderately interesting but for what?

@Impede...I think Math was still talking probabilities. Not saying there IS an SK. Just saying what conditions would need to be for one to exist.

The town tell discussion between Impede and Srceen is zzzzzzz

1158 by Hawk...exaaactly.

@Math...why have you ruled out TTxxxxx? Also, I understand that TTTTTxx would be good because it
would mean we only have 1 mafia left (but also an SK)...but it would also mean town is down to their
last PR which would kind of suck. Wouldn't TTxxxxx be a better situation for town to be in?
Sure...there's a 3rd mafia (plus an SK)...but also 5 town PRs! Which sounds pretty sweet for town.

@ sheep...there could be a vig who doesn't want to claim.

1187 by Impede has him cementing his town status for me. When I am town and
people are likeminded/in my head...I town read them.

Damnit Math...what is the benefit to a vig claiming? If there is a vig and they claim...then what? They die tonight? How is that a good thing?

@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role
to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

OK...caught up. I think my reads are still close to what they were a few days ago.

I do not like all the setup stuff Math is doing. I would be much more likely to participate if I knew the benefit to town. I assume it's to try and back mafia or an
SK into a corner? But does claiming not seem incredibly useful for scum? ???????????

smh....

Current reads:
Town - Impede, Hawk, momo
Town lean - Math and Kop...and I think Anonymous based on VCA review. Una
Scum suspects - Srceen and sheep.

Oh...and

I am not the vig

.

But if I was I wouldn't tell you.

@Hawk...regardless of whether we are dealing with one or two remaining mafia I still think chances are they were off the Creature lynch. Everyone alive who was voting Creature was pretty committed based on votes alone. Red's hammer could have been construed as town cred
bussing but looking further back...Red was on Creature for the bulk of D1 and including two stints at L-1. That's pretty committed...ESPECIALLY if there are just two mafia in the game.

That's why I changed my read on Red. Impede and you pretty much for similar reasons. Math and momo were less committed but I still lean town on them as well.

As for a potential SK...I suck at hunting SK's so I usually just keep going after scummy people until my game is over. Or hope mafia do it for me. An SK in the game could very well be on the Creature lynch. I know there is still mafia in the game though so that's where my focus is.

@Fitz, Red may have been on and off the Creature wagon, but that doesn't really spell anything. He could have easily been on and off believing that being on and off would make people doubt him. I'd have to double check the time stamps to when he jumped on and off, because I possibly think he may have joined the Creature wagon, then jumped off when something else came up but then jumped back on when he realised that his buddy was the inevitable lynch and hammered early to shut it down.

Kop...Red was not hopping on and off Creature. That was my point. There was commitment on Red's part to get Creature lynched. He did come off briefly to vote Una but he was on Creature from post 297 until 852. That is a shit load of opportunities to focus elsewhere. Jay was playing suspect as hell and Red stayed off that wagon. I didn't like Impede D1 and that wagon got up to L-2 with no Red vote on it. If Red was Creature's partner he had plenty of chances to make a legit move away from the Creature wagon. Especially when a large portion of the time Red was on it...it was at L-1 or L-2.

And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left. Which makes Red's presence (and everyone else for that matter) on Creature's wagon even less likely to be his scum partner. They could still be anti-town (SK) of course...but first things first IMO (i.e. get scum).

Also...

@Kop...why as a vig would you have not shot the player who was claiming your role to save his ass? Wouldn't that have been a preferred scum strategy to try and out a vig as a consolation to being lynched?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
To those not voting (Anon, Hawk, sheep)...why aren't you voting?

Chance of 5 Ts: 6/32 = 19%

2. I no one claims any of the roles I listed, we are in TTTTT almost definitely, which is fantastic.

Creature has been lynched.

Creature was a

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver.

TTTTT = Mafia Goon,

Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver

, Serial Killer

And if we are to believe there is no vig in the game as everyone has led Math to believe...then that means we have an SK and only ONE scum left

Imagine being this wrong
Go read the setup again Fitz

Yes....imagine.

Spoiler: Screen

The only thing about momo on me that I can see make sense is my impede Vote.
The rest is just bs.
You can’t assume what you do on replace in is what everyone else does.
I replace into all my games the same way. Start playing from then on taking advice as needed. Isoing when someone catches my eye.
I asked Dino for personal thoughts not because I’m following them. I asked so I can see thought process and reasoning. Wanted to see if they were bs’ing their thoughts. Didn’t want to confirm bias and thought it my be away for me to get a fresh look.
In conclusion it feels like momo is defending a buddy.

No mentions from Kop.

I need a nap. And a break.

[AnonymousGhost]

Timeline of the People vs DinoPede

Day One

312 - Fitz's suspicions on Impede

322 - Kop votes for Impede

361 - Impede’s case against Kop; no vote yet

460 - Impede defends himself against A50’s case

545 - Fitz votes for Impede

644 - Dino's records all of Impede and Red's interactions; suggests that they're either scum together or that Impede knows that Red is town

679 - Kop explains why he's happy with his vote on Impede

683 - momo's explanation for his Impede vote

697 - Kop’s dissection of Impede’s behavior as not Town

715 - A50's case on Scum!Pede

716 - Dino's Defense/Breakdown of A50's case on Impede

717, 718 - Momo flips from Impede to Creature then back to Impede after seeing A50's case on Impede

729 - Momo says they're both scummy i.e. Impede and Creature

731 - Sheep unvotes until he hears Dino's response

810 - Dino's record of Impede on Una and breakdown of A50's case

815 - Further breakdown of A50's case on Impede by Dino

820 - A TL;DR versino of 815

857 - Kop is not swayed by Dino's case of town!Impede meta

Day Two

1077 - Fitz agrees w/ Math's case that Impede is likely town

1138 - Kop is willing to accept Math's case on Impede for now, but says that that slot is something that he'd still like to progress down

My sleep deprived analysis's starting point is the fact that Kop is the last one to concede to Dino's POV about Impede's meta, compared to Fitz. Momo never says a peep about Dino's case and is more swayed by A50's case iirc - not fact checked. My train of thought is that scum would want to blend in and to do this they'd need to follow the proverbial crowd and go w/ Dino's POV. I'd need to check the rest of Kop's ISO to see if the rest of his posts align with this theory though.

[Mathdino]

It would help if you analysed or gave some kind of conclusion for each player you quote listed.

So far what I'm getting is that Screen and Hawk are almost certainly not mafia.

Not maf bloc: {momo, Impede, Ghost, Hawk, Screen}
Lynchpool: {sheep, Kop, fitz}
Kinda both: {Una}

If we get this wrong, we're 7v1v1 tonight. Both shoot town creates 5v1v1. Being wrong again creates an awkward 4v1v1 where we lose if both shoot town. Awkwardly, we might only have one mislynch left.

But like. It's probably sheep or Kop.

[AnonymousGhost]

@Math

It'll come. I'm burned out right now. X.X

As in, the burned out where my vision is kinda getting fuzzy... Probably not a good sign.

[yessiree]

Note: Can't put spoilers inside another spoiler

[Mathdino]

Kop, fitz, Impede and I are all confirmed Not Hider (assuming fitz as hider would've followed my request) because we hypothetically hid behind people who died. Thus we're exempt from hider hypoclaiming.

We should get a few hypo hider claims before day end.

I hate to out this but it's pretty low chance we even have a hider anyway. Plus, scum is gonna do this analysis on their own.

Hider targets yesterday (not counting those who hid behind dead people):
momo @ Screenplay
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Screenplay @ UnaBombaH
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz @ ----------

Given that momo is tunneling Screenplay, momo's not hider.
Screenplay voting Una means Screenplay's not hider.
Una tunneling me means Una's not hider.
I didn't realise this at the time but me getting Hawk to vote Kop means Hawk's not hider.

So that really just means we need hypo hider claims from:

Ghost

sheep

fitz

, only if he wouldn't have hid behind Jay as I asked (and if he didn't, he should claim his D1 hypo target).

[sheepsaysmeep]

would hide behind momo