Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[UnaBombaH]

Agreedo

[yessiree]

VC 3.3

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

havingfitz (2) [L-2] -

Mathdino, Impede

Not voting

- Srceenplay, Kop, UnabombaH, Hawk, havingfitz

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-02-01 17:00:00)

[havingfitz]

I see that I am L-2 which is annoying as I am not the SK.

Finding SKs is not something I feel confident in. I think I may have found one before but I'm not 100% sure. I need to look and if I did...see what suspicions the sk would have pinged in me.

@Math...short of some PR result how is anyone in this game confirmed town? You seem to be quite happy dishing out town crowns. (Impede, Srceen, Kop, Una....)

@Math...you have an SK-hunting guide? Do tell? Does it help you not appear like an SK?

Your towncase points on Kop are interesting:

1 - Avoiding lynchbait....like I did with Kop and momo?
2 - It doesn't benefit Kop to shoot A50. Who did it benefit then? Did it benefit me? I think not.
3 - More lynchbait avoidance towncred (see 1).
4 - Lone wolfing? Not shooting who you think is scum? I'm not sure what your SK guide says but my view is the SK would want to eliminate scum to avoid an eventual kingmaker situation. Also...didn't you call the RedFlavor slot "too conftown (and kinda PR-esque)"? Why would the fact Kop voted Anon preclude him from wanting to get rid of "too conftown (and kinda PR-esque)"? And I am not making a case on Kop...I'm debunking your logic on this point.
5/6 - He cares a lot? That's laughbale. I care. So there.
7 - He hardly mentions SK. That's an anti-SK tell? So an SK who is trying to not be uncovered would mention his role a lot? smh...agree to disagree I guess.

tl:dr; your reasons for giving out town cred are weak. I look forward to seeing if your reasons for sk reading me are any better (they won't be).

@Hawk...I am not a vig and I doubt we are in 2T given no vig has claimed.

@Math...what comments wrt Impede (or anyone else for that matter) reveal their advantage (if an SK) to not shoot A50?

@Math...so we're down to me on POE after all the town buttons you've been passing out? Wrong.

@Math...wtf is an anti-SK tell? Most of your Kop "anti-sk" tells were shit. Are you sk reading me because of an absence of your "anti-sk tells" as opposed to things I've done that make you think I am an SK? This logic is bassackwards. Was the don't lynch lynchbait an anti-sk tell? Your A50 NKA analysis? Is WIFOM a good sk tell?

So Math determines the SK is in two of my stronger town (at least not mafia) reads (Impede and Hawk) and me...who I know is town. Brilliant.

@Math...why do you keep bringing up a hider? What value is there in the comment "The Sk didn't actually consider that Ghost could've actually been the hider?" Is there a hider? Any hider chat in absence of a hider flip or claim beyond hypo claiming is fluff.

WTF Impede.

@Math...so you would kill A50 if you were SK and A50 was killed. No SK would ever admit that. Guess you're clear. /sarcasm

WTF Impede...again. You realize I mentioned SK quite a lot in my set up exchanges with Math? You realize there was potentially an SK in this game that warranted the occasional mention? How is discussing a potential part of this game a negative. I would think not mentioning SK at all (or very little) would warrant equal suspicion. smh.

I've voted peopel I suspected and called people I don't suspect town reads. Not sure where any of that is a negative.
Especially in the world some live in that an SK should not target mafia? Which I have most definitely tried to do.
Not ruling out TT when it wasn't ruled out? wtf?
Very lurky? So we're on a lynch all lurkers track too? My game activity is the same in all my games all of the time. I tend to post a few times a day and rarely on weekends and so when I do post...it's oftena long catch up. I do not push cases hard when I am not extremely confident someone is guilty or has done something I find especially scummy. I do my thing and people are free to join me or not. My cases on suspects are more detailed and accurate (and pushed by me) the further into a game I get. I believe anyone in here who has a few games experience with me would echo that. I don't lurk...I just don't post as much as most players.

So now Impede AND Math are questioning their own continued existence in this game either from lack of being NK'd or lynched. I hate when people wifom up the hell out of their continued existence either for self-percieved scumminess or over inflated ego.

Brilliant...not. Projecting I'll claim VT in a game that most likely has 5 VTs (out of 7 players...i.e. 70+%) left in the game is pure genius. /sarcasm

Stopping here for the moment due to other current commitments and I feel I am just defending myself against two people who have no good reason to be suspecting me in the first place.

Back later today if day is still open.

[Hawk]

Cool not 2t.

VOTE: Impede

[Impede]

Mathdino, Impede and hawk are the ones I'm going to reread and quote the most.

This is super added-value actually. It's the polar opposite of my SK-pool, so you'll either confirm my townblock or force us to reevaluate.

[Impede]

We could still have Hider, Vengeful, Role Cop, or Doctor though right? Can't we use Hider and Role Cop to conftown enough people that the game is a guaranteed win (provided they don't die)?

TTTTTXS

Even with no conftowns currently (not even a possibility), a pseudo-investigative PR could:
D4: 5 players remaining, 2 conftown (we should do hypoclaims today so that we don't lose this)
D5 LYLO: 3 players remaining, 2 conftown (no matter what we either have 2 conftowns or 1 conf-SK if PR advertises their night target D4)

This is probably not the case though, as I think we would've seen a claim by now? So I guess we are more likely than not going to have to get lucky with Doc or Veng.

[Impede]

Also, I hate Fitz's entire self-defense post. Not moving my vote unless someone pulls out an amazing Town!Fitz case. I think I'm confbiasing, but whatever. Trusting my gut.

[Mathdino]

"SK-hunting guide": I made that up on daystart using armchair mafia theory. I've been searching for MD articles on catching SKs to no avail.

Kopcase: I do think that SK would want to get town on the basis that shooting mafia would result in the horrible situation for SK right now; an entire town vs you. And I don't have an SK case on you, fitz. You're more of a PoE read.

Impede-SK: I don't think there's an advantage for Impede to not shoot A50. A50 is a good shot regardless of who's SK. The anti-SK-tell is that Impede didn't seem to know that.

Anti-SK-tells: Read my posts on Una and Screenplay before you knock it. I get you disagree on Kop.

Hider stuff: If you don't immediately see how I'm able to use that to make reads, I don't think we're gonna be able to back-and-forth enough for me to explain it to you. I've explained a lot of setup spec that you skim over while catching up and show little to no understanding of it. Just ignore it.

SK-me-killing-A50: I don't expect to be cleared. I don't see the point of you even bringing this up. My point to Impede was that most people, including me, would shoot A50, because A50 was a good kill. He seemed to think that SK-Math wouldn't shoot A50, which is just wrong, and I worry about the rest of his NKA.

Projecting-VT-claim: It's not exactly hard to tell you'd claim VT. Had you been PR, you wouldn't have been insisting to me all of D2 that there was only one PR. You also wouldn't have done that "if I were a vig, I wouldn't tell you" thing. It's not like SK is gonna shoot you anyway.

[Hawk]

What about sleeping? Does that help us in any way?? I don't mean just today I mean moving forward. No one's claimed the last PR but a Rolecop/hider with hypoclaims might be able to break this endgame no?

[Mathdino]

None of us are hider. fitz was the only one left who could reasonably claim hider, but he's pretty obviously VT.

JK should probably claim because JK claim breaks the game, but I suspect no JK either.

Means all that's left is Doctor (I don't think there's a doctor), Vengeful (we're fucked), Rolecop (good if they've already confirmed someone else here as town), and 1-shot Tracker (god help us).

[Hawk]

My assumption is that it's not Rolecop cause I'm fairly certain if Rolecop was here unless they checked Momo and like a50 I don't see how they wouldn't have at least one to two innos.

However something we could do is assume that and all make hypo claims for who you have as inno or at least investigative results this let's us go through night cycles and if we do have a Rolecop solve for everyone Not SK if our Rolecop dies correct?

Like say. I'm Rolecop I have an inno on Kop and Math.

Idk. I'm just storming here.

[havingfitz]

Also, I hate Fitz's entire self-defense post.

I don't know if you are sk or not. Since this day began I have not had the chance to look at people still alive to see who I think may or may not be the SK. And now I've used SK twice (THREE TIMES...there is is again) in this sentence thus cementing my status as he who speaketh the term that shall not be spoken.

But seriously...do you hate the points I brought up or the fact I felt the need to defend myself against two shit ~cases(?) being brought against me? At least you can admit you are being confbiasy. That's just slightly better than admitting you are the sk (4!4!4!)

I'm on my phone atm and preoccupied. When I get home tonight and off the phone I will start looking players over for our last anti town role (aka you know what). And I'll see if I left any points worth commenting on out from where I left off on my earlier uber defensive post.

One thing I will be curious of is if anyone has made, or makes, any actually solid town cases or SK!!!!cases against anyone to possibly narrow down my pool of lynch options.

As of this post I have no one definitively cleared or convicted.

Also...just for discussion...IF the remaining PR has done anything that could potentially clear others is it time to make their presence known?

Having a pool of 3 or 4 to work with would be nicer than 6.


P.edit everything since Impede's post.

[Mathdino]

I might be rolecop and if so I have an inno on Hawk.

[Mathdino]

Okay I think we can generally clear Una, right? Am I crazy? Like there's a bunch of good reasons he's not SK at this point.

[Hawk]

If I knew for sure there was a Rolecop I would propose this and have us declare our investigations for the next night and sleep.. we would have at least a 5 in 6 chance that SK would miss their target and force them to direct at the person who targeted them correct? This should put us in an optimal position to win.

But this is only if we have a rolecop.

Pedit:

Yeah like that. Because if we all say that and who we are targeting then the SK has to shoot the cop if they target them or risk getting lynched.

[Mathdino]

I heavily disagree with no lynching down to even. Even number of players is pretty bad for us.

We should lynch someone who's obviously gonna claim VT anyway. Like fitz.

[Hawk]

I heavily disagree with no lynching down to even. Even number of players is pretty bad for us.

We should lynch someone who's obviously gonna claim VT anyway. Like fitz.

If you want to do that I say lynch impede and we make a circle of hypo cop claims and targets. This directs the SKs kill and they can't win if they don't shoot who targets them unless they're confident they know who the cop is right? If we do that we are wrong about impede it puts us to 5 after the NK but if the cop gets shot we lynch his target, if we are still wrong at that point we go into lylo no better than now but if we are right we win at any of those previous junctures.

If the Cop isn't shot Cop can reveal and we have at least 2 confirmed town in 5 and that puts us at least 1 confirmed town into 3.

[Impede]

I might be the RC and I have an inno on Kop.

[Srceenplay]

I might be the role cop and have an inno on math

[Mathdino]

ok guys it doesn't work if you voted and tried to push the guy you have an inno on

[Hawk]

Also tomorrow if RC doesn't die tonight and someone claims RC all other power roles will CC as we know there is only one PR left and we have two lynches to take out the PR cross claims.

Pedit: Yeah that just makes Impede obviously not RC and needs to be lynched.

We need a world where all the hypo inno claims make sense or the SK has a better chance at shooting the actual RC even if he isn't targeted by them...

[Mathdino]

Just wanna point out that this also works if you're 1-shot tracker and tracked a dead person.

[Impede]

- I've played in such a dominating way that gets me shot by mafia or checked by a PR. (counterpoint: powerwolfing strat OP)
- I've lowkey requested that the PR target me on multiple occasions (counterpoint: WIFOM)
- I've directly asked for protection from JK (counterpoint: Math wanted to pretend that he was saved by JK and JK didn't actually target him)
- My levels of scumhunting make it less likely for SK to win in the end (counterpoint: Math felt he could win in a game of just him and townies)
- I've hard-defended multiple people (momo and A50 especially) from getting lynched when SK theoretically shouldn't care (counterpoint: buddying)
- I tried to break the game when I thought it was possible to given tons of PRs (counterpoint: I betted on 5T and won)

Just want to resurrect this. I think the most compelling points here are (1) and (3). (1) goes away if we assume 1SBP!SK!Math I think.

Point (3) is interesting. IIRC, this was done after we had done a fair amount of setup-narrowing, which means the actual mathematical odds of having a JK would be pretty low (something around or less than 25%). Add this to the fact that there's been no indication thus far of roleblocking or protection, this becomes even less likely. Compound this with the fact that your average PR is not terribly likely to just follow the will of another player. I think it's possible this was done more as a self-preservation tactic since Math was paranoid of his own death by scum? Scum would definitely not want to waste an NK on a potentially protected target. Even if SK!Math had his NK blocked, it could be chalked up to any number of other PR-related action-tampering or blamed on a no-kill gambit or something along those lines. Idk, maybe this is reachy.

tl;dr: I'm paranoid of SK!Math still. I think if all else fails, he's a good choice in LYLO.


pedit: Maybe I got the Kop inno last night. Maybe I'm trying not to out myself as the PR by not advertising an out-of-nowhere hard TR on Kop?

[Srceenplay]

ok guys it doesn't work if you voted and tried to push the guy you have an inno on

Winfom good sir. I’m not voting you.

[Mathdino]

Mafia gets 1SBPSK!me lynched if I get shot by them. 1-shot BP works as a delay or an endgame trump card. If SK gets shot N1 they're fucked no matter what.