Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

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Post Post #325  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:51 pm

In post 320, Klick wrote:Posts with more content coming tonight. Today's my first day of classes, gonna be busy until they end tonight.

:)

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Post Post #326  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:52 pm

It's like an unplanned child


You have too much to drink, you have a child

You have too much to drink, you're in a mafia game

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Post Post #327  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:55 pm

UNVOTE:

Because I'm on the biggest wagon and i have not read the game.

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Post Post #328  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:58 pm

Thor, your question to me does not make sense

That replacement makes look at pp more as scum

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Post Post #329  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:00 pm

Get this

Replace outs are nai

They can be hinged on factors outside of this game

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Post Post #330  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:04 pm

Vc ugly

Scum have lots of options yet nothing has come to full force yet

The vvs need to die and we need to be cohesive about something

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Post Post #331  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:08 pm

I reckon in the two vote wagons that yields scum that's just vote parking and hoping for their wagon to come to full force

I know my slot is town, i haven't sorted the people on my lynch though.

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Post Post #332  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:17 pm

Brb hot wings

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Post Post #333  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:40 pm

In post 328, Flubbernugget wrote:Thor, your question to me does not make sense

Yes it does - if the case on you is actually bad you ought to be able to explain why it's bad.

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Post Post #334  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:26 pm

You don't have a case.

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Post Post #335  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:09 pm

In post 319, Moneybags wrote:[COA] had what, one out of the blue vote and she's "under pressure"? Iirc no one but beef had said anything to her. I can't see how this quote can be considered under pressure when the simplier and more likely scenairo is that it's out of frustration.
That's the point though. She's acting as if she is under pressure despite only having one (rather unthreatening) vote on her.

EP's point checks out and it correlates well with my gut I think.
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Post Post #336  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:11 pm

I guess it was "acted" since she has two votes now.

I think COAscum is a possibility worth exploring. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll move on to look for scum elsewhere.
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Post Post #337  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:48 pm

VOTE: cult
"I don't think he's ready, Supes is Jelly!"

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Post Post #338  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:57 pm

In post 311, Thor665 wrote:@Cult - please state your current reads.

Mozamis is fairly obviously town to me this game. Having played with him before and done a slight review of his meta, I don't believe he could replicate his posting style the way he has this game if he were scum. Very little could be done to change my mind on this.

Other people seem to be hesitant to call you town based on meta. You have a penchant for getting into extended arguments which I'm not a fan of, but it's matched with scumhunting enough that I'm comfortable calling you town.

I find the way Maxous posts to be hard to read, but from the poor wagon on him and his seemingly nonchalant response to being one of the earliest wagons, he seems like town.

If I were to be ordering this list from towniest to scummiest, the people who I'm not mentioning would take up this slot. I'm not a fan of readslists in the first place and nothing particularly original or insightful comes to mind about them if they weren't mentioned, so I'm not going to force myself to write something.

Texcat hasn't really done anything. I have a poor history with defending lurkers who end up flipping scum so I'd be more willing to lynch him than typically.

Along with what I've mentioned previously, I hate the fact that Klick seems to be deliberately ignoring what I've said about him, both on a "hate" meaning scummy and "hate" meaning personal dislike level. Which reminds me:
@Klick

Penguin's slot seems more likely scum than not, and I'm slightly annoyed at the replace out given that the replacement likely won't be in the same state of mind as Penguin was. I've already mentioned this, but I think the way in which he interacted with the wagon on him was scummy. He seemed content to treat the game as a debate rather than as a game of mafia, and his response to my pointing that out was an utter misrepresentation. I don't believe the replace-out itself is necessarily AI, however.

I think Beefster is scum. His original vote on me only came after I called him out for his questioning being superficial, and since then it seems like he's had to come up with reasons to keep justifying his vote on me. Look at his response to mozamis:
In post 249, Beefster wrote:Pfft. I had my reasons. I just didn't feel like expressing them at the time. In my big reads post, I had her as null. (she was initially town before I posted my reads) I described her as "good questions. not much else" and after a couple more of her posts, it just solidified that her posts have been methodical and perhaps a little deceptive or misdirecting. I don't know if I can point to any particular post or line.

I haven't really been paying super close attention. I was juggling 2 other games with AGDQ.

I've highlighted what likely isn't true. First, the idea that Beefster had a slight scumlean on me that he "just didn't feel like mentioning" is doubtful, not just on face value but also on the fact that his reads list explicitly had a section for "scumleans" and one of them was explitly marked "slight" – if I was one of those slight scumleans before, why didn't he mention me there? Next, he says that "a couple more of my posts" solidified his scumlean on me, despite the fact that I only made one post inbetween his readslist and his vote.

Another thing I'd like to note is that I think I was right on the mark on Beefster "hedging" his read on me, given that he only resumed his push after multiple people declared that they didn't want a beefster wagon in response to his vote on me.

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Post Post #339  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:58 pm

In post 312, Errantparabola wrote:
In post 266, CultOfAthena wrote:Hm, I feel like my posts are getting ignored here. I also didn't get really get any responses that I'm satisfied with from my questions. Is it my posting style?

I feel like this question comes from scum a lot under pressure. Responds to a single one-off vote from Beefster with a flurry of posts, questions about why she's being ignored, classic "it's not me, it's my playstyle" line... idk, seems like a disproportionate reaction.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Of the "flurry of posts" that you're describing, only one was directed towards Beefster. I split up what I would normally make as one post into multiple to see if it would get people to read what I was saying more. You're interpreting all of the posts there as a reaction to Beefster, but that isn't the case.

By the way, why were you "not opposed to my wagon" in , made before the post you quoted?

Definitely Bella is a good vote. Throws out opinions without thought put behind them, weak attempts to interact with key points in the game in the early stages. It sounds like a bit of a dumb reason, but it's plausible with this kind of dense game, where I think scum can potentially find it really hard to work themselves up to being a key player when people are already engaging with each other at this level. (Haha I know, look at me with my 4 posts.) But also why Athena, if scum, might find herself particularly frustrated when no one engages with her.

If I were scum, why would I feel the need to insert myself as a "key player" when most people seemed content to just write me off as town and ignore the rest of my posts?

In post 321, Errantparabola wrote:Moneybags: i do think that Athena felt pressured by Beefster’s vote. I dont think town usually goes into an immediate throwing shade/discredit from what is a claimed gut read (268)

Where did I discredit Beefster? If by "discredit" you mean "point out how someone is wrong", then first of all those two things are very connotatively different and you'll have to explain why you chose the first phrase over the second, and second – yeah I would be "discrediting" him if that's what you mean.

In post 335, Beefster wrote:That's the point though. She's acting as if she is under pressure despite only having one (rather unthreatening) vote on her.

How was I acting as if I was under pressure?

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Post Post #340  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:29 pm

In post 339, CultOfAthena wrote:
In post 335, Beefster wrote:That's the point though. She's acting as if she is under pressure despite only having one (rather unthreatening) vote on her.

How was I acting as if I was under pressure?

See EP's argument on the post you quoted. I agree with his reasoning.
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Post Post #341  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:31 pm

In post 337, mozamis wrote:VOTE: cult

Where the hell did this come from?
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Post Post #342  (ISO)  » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:46 pm

Okay, finally around. Going to sit and make a big post or two.

In post 186, CultOfAthena wrote:I'm also wary of the idea that most of the more recently active players are town, and this goes along with what I said earlier about getting a bad feeling from Klick's posts. Klick seems like he's trying to pocket people, or at the very least insert himself into some kind of townblock. Look at this whole interaction:
Spoiler:
In post 135, Bellaphant wrote:...I have the dumbest gut read on texcat.

In post 136, Klick wrote:Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.

In post 137, Bellaphant wrote:I mean there's only two of them and one is generic af so....

and it's town.

In post 138, Klick wrote:Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.

Perhaps this is paranoia, but it seems to me like Klick is attempting to appeal to Bella by making it seem like they share a similar thought process (exactly how scum pocketed me in one of my previous games). In 136, despite not knowing what Bella's read on tex is or where it comes from, he says that he has the same thing. If he actually originally shared Bella's exact same gutread, I would have expected him to just say it and then ask if Bella shared the same thing, rather than asking what Bella's read was first before sharing his own.

I understand where your suspicion is coming from in that line of discussion. I suppose the only way to respond to this in defense is to explain my thought process at the time and why I asked this to Bella in the manner that I did.
Before making my first reads post, I had a gut townread on texcat, but I didn't really know how to justify it. Following the advice a page or two before that Thor had given to Maxous, I decided not to reveal the read at the time because I didn't feel like explaining it/didn't have very high confidence. Seeing that Bella seemed to have the same feeling and knowing that we tend to think the same way sometimes, I thought my read might be more reasonable if it was shared by Bella. When she revealed that she did in fact have a gut townread on texcat, I felt more comfortable expressing my own read, and then tried going back to the post to explain what I saw.
Basically, I'm a bit shy about expressing my opinions and have low confidence in them most of the time, so I was hesitant. :P
I'm not quite sure how I would have handled the situation were I scum, but I don't think it would be like that.




Looking into the Flubber votes now. Upon doing more than a skim, it looks like only three people actually voted Flubber ever, though Beef voted him twice. My main issue is that Flubber actually seems quite towny to me at the moment, and I think his play style is attracting votes towards him. I considered placing a pressure vote on him as one of my first votes, but decided against it as I figured he was on the track towards providing content with which I could read him. In short, Flubber's a town read and I'll explain that in my next post, but in this post I'm going to be assuming Flubber is town.

Spoiler: Beef's votes
In post 102, Beefster wrote:
In post 98, Flubbernugget wrote:Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

Initially looks like an opportunistic and scummy vote. Beef seems to be trying to go for something he can actually get a lynch from, and since a Thor vote wasn't taking off, he settled on Flubber. However, if we look later on at his other vote on Flubber:

In post 210, Beefster wrote:
In post 192, Moneybags wrote:
In post 189, Beefster wrote:VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.

The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.

VOTE: Flubber

I am still suspicious of COA.

This is a more obvious attempt at being on a wagon that has momentum. The reason I read the first post as scummy is because he's being opportunistic is what appears to be a sneaky way, but now it just seems like Beef wants to be somewhere that has a chance of leading to a lynch. I don't scumread Beef based on his Flubber votes.

Spoiler: texcat's vote and argument with Flubber
In post 182, texcat wrote:
In post 179, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 176, HeWhoSwims wrote:
In post 174, texcat wrote:
In post 172, Flubbernugget wrote:So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.


QFT.

Flubber, care to explain why both of these points are a thing?

Well, there's seven pages of content, and texcat didn't have much to say about it. The "make a case or something" was a reference to the fact that texcat was shading Bellaphant without pushing many reads.

Do you still think tex is town from their catch up? I don't.

VOTE: texcat


This looks like blatant obvious OMGUS. When you said that you didn't understand Bella and Klick's town read of me, it was OK, but when I say something about it, suddenly it's shading? And what about Klick, he echoed Bella, but you say that he's "making good observations." Seems a little off.

You weren't pushing anyone and your vote was not on anyone until I voted you. Suddenly then you produced a list of townreads and then decide to vote me. Stinks like pond scum. I think you are scum looking for an easy place to park your vote, and you found it when I voted you.

This is a bad vote. Hypocrisy isn't a scumtell. It seems like very weak reasoning for something texcat is arguing strongly for in the last post. In addition, tex seems to put Flubber in a situation where he'll be scumread no matter what he does. He votes Flubber in 174. Flubber then gives reads in the next post (he already said he was going to be giving lots of townreads earlier in response to me) but tex scumreads this, accusing his reads post of being a result of tex voting him. If Flubber hadn't given reads, he'd still be scummy for not making a case. It's a lose-lose situation, and I'm starting to think texcat was aware of that.

Soooo yeah. Really dislike the texcat vote on Flubber.

Spoiler: Thor's Flubber vote
In post 194, Thor665 wrote:I like the idea of a Flub v. Tex wagon adventure.
Bella is now an acceptable lynch to me also.
Beefster is wasting time.
Errant is playing right near the very edge of strategic lurking and should knock that crud off.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Thor has several posts going back-and-forth in discussion with Flubber surrounding this vote, but he's been very vague about his actual reasons for this vote, outside of wanting competing wagons between tex and Flub. I genuinely don't understand why Thor has a scumread on Flubber. He has implied a scumread on Flubber through discussion of his reads in comparison with mozamis' reads in 263. But I don't get Thor's scumread on Flubber. So until I understand it, I don't have confidence in it.


@Thor: Could you please explain why you find Flubber scummy to me? Show some of your cards; I want to see what you're seeing.

So that wraps up my analysis of the Flubber wagon. tl;dr: Beef's vote isn't scummy, texcat's is, and I don't get Thor's vote at all.
Next post is an updated reads list and probably a vote.

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Post Post #343  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:08 am

So what's up finished reading page 2, Thor is town.

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Post Post #344  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:30 am

Eyeballing all the attention on him for Now

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Post Post #345  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:10 am

In post 21, mozamis wrote:hey all, and hey maxous who was in my first ever game! :)


fun fact: you were in my first game.

it wasn't on this account though.

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Post Post #346  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:21 am

VOTE: klick

megagutvibescum

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Post Post #347  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:22 am

i'm townleaning everyone being voted in the vc so far except coa.

blah i'm prbably wrong on something due to the disperse votes but eh.

who wants to lynch this with me, all of his posts give me a bad ol' feeling

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Post Post #348  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:32 am

Only read to like page 7 and here's where I'm at

1. mozamis town
2. Thor665 town
3. PenguinPower * me
4. HeWhoSwims leantown
5. Moneybags towny but bad vibes can't explain why
6. Bellaphant weak tr
7. Klick scum
8. Flubbernugget town
9. texcat null
10. Beefster townish
11. CultOfAthena nullish
12. Maxous town
13. Errantparabola dead null

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Post Post #349  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:50 am

TOWN

Beefster: This is my strongest read. I really like Beef's 115 which is where my townread of him started. There's inconsistency in his reads and odd flops of his vote, in ways that I think he'd be more careful about as scum. Most recently, I like the way he's criticizing mozamis in his last post for voting CoA, joining his own wagon, because it doesn't line up with moz's reads. He just looks really genuine to me, thus he's my strongest townread.

mozamis: Post 95 has my main argument for moz-town, and not much has changed my view on him. I don't particularly like his most recent posts just repeating the same list of possible scum over and over again with slight changes, but I do think his reads are genuine and coming from town. I particularly don't think moz-scum goes from "SCUM ARE IN THESE FIVE PEOPLE" to "meh okay let's vote this townread that's actually neutral." He's not showing awareness of how his actions are making him look. Unless he's getting extremely detailed in trickery, he's town.

Moneybags: This feels right. I'm reading through Moneybags' posts and seeing very clear town motivation in pretty much everything he says. For example:
In post 288, Moneybags wrote:Do you have any remarks on what I have said about Flub? It should be able to be gathered from my ISO. No one else has really had anything to say about it. I'd appreciate another opinion.

This looks like it's coming from the perspective of someone who genuinely wants people to weigh in on their thoughts. Thinking from the perspective of scum-Moneybags (Scummybags?), having just put together a wall of content, I would probably be just fine with my post being passed up and not getting much flak on Day 1 while other players took heat. Moneybags wants opinions on the thoughts he's put together. Now, if a player like Thor did this I'd consider it null; Thor obviously wants to shape the game regardless of what role he has, he does it every game. Moneybags doesn't seem like that kind of extremely dominant player, therefore I feel like this is a solid towntell for him.
I also really liked Moneybags' early read on Beef, leading to my own strong townread on Beef.

CultOfAthena: I'm just now reading through her ISO again and coming to this conclusion. For the longest time I've had her sitting at null. But I really like the contributions she made early-game. There are subtleties to her reads that I don't think look faked.
In post 84, CultOfAthena wrote:The only person I've played with here before is mozamis, who so far seems fairly similar to our previous game.

I like how Thor focused on, or rather engaged with multiple people and dislike how PP primarily focused just on Thor.

If moneybags is scum, I doubt PP is.

I don't really see much that's scummy about Maxous. It's a weak read but from his first post I'd be inclined to say he's more likely town. It shows more concern for sorting people than for fitting in.

This post in particular has what I'm talking about. What is scum-COA trying to accomplish with these details? Getting the read of Moneybags and PP not being scum-buddies, and especially the weak Maxous town-read. It would have been fairly easy to not bother defending that sort of read, but I thinks he genuinely has this weak town feeling about Maxous and therefore said it anyway.
Her flip-flop multiple times on her mozamis meta-read also seems extremely genuine. As scum you'd have to expect her to have some sort of direction she wants to put mozamis in, but she doesn't; she keeps sorting him back and forth with this meta-read.

LEANING TOWN

Flubbernugget: As I said in my last post, the wagon on him currently makes no sense to me. At first I was put off by his abrasive posting style, but everything game-related he's posted lines up with my own thoughts on the game really well. I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget. Call it gut, I guess, and a little bit of texcat looking super bad on his wagon.

NULL

ErrantParabola:

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