Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Almost50]

I mean, look at it this way: Someone (Shad) who knows there to be 2 scums left, a Mafioso and a SK, and is clearing the ONLY logical option any townie in his place would auto-suspect. It directly points out to someone who is NOT town. I'm not sure is he suspects fitz to be the last Mafia (he's not, 100% of the time), or if he thinks it's texcat and still wants her around to make use of her kill tonight. Eitherway, Shad is the SK. texcat is the 3rd Mafia still.

[texcat]

Or is it Taly? The one who has been the Town MVP all game?

The SK could be Town MVP. Just saying.

[Almost50]

Frankly, if Taly is the SK here (ir even if he is the last Mafioso) I don't mind forfeiting the game to him at all. That would be brilliant play and deserves to win.

That said, I do NOT think he is anything bu a devoted townie, so I'm not really playing against my win con when I totally exclude him from the lynch pool.

[Taly]

So much of this post is provably incorrect. I apologize about the length. The question I now have is about Taly. Is he just conf-biasing?

Are you just going to dismiss my views by suggesting I'm conf-biasing JUST LIKE

Kopherald

did last dayphase?

Conf-biasing is taking new information and strengthening someone's pre-existing beliefs on them.

By that definition; ME CONF-BIASING IS NOT TRUE.

I'm sorry, but since you've only acknowledged my existence in this game since the last dayphase, I'm telling you that I've had plenty of reasons to think Kopherald was scum

SOLELY BASED ON NEW INFORMATION

.

I wasn't sure of my read over him throughout D1 and D2, and I've townread him to a point then; I was less certain D3, but I believed he was scum based on PoE and NKA that obviously was proven wrong.

Is he intentionally trying to get another mislynch like yesterday?

What am I even reading?

So, you're blatantly calling me scum here; because you're saying that I'm

INTENTIONALLY

driving a mislynch, even though I'm literally the

ONLY

person in this game that's fully putting their thoughts in a case and attempting to use what they know as a means to gamesolve and lynch who they most definitively believe is scum!

The fact that you didn't change your vote or say anything else about this, says that this was to spread even

MORE WIFOM ON ME

, and make me a potential mislynch for town to lose.

And also, if you want to throw suspicion on me about

"intentionally-getting-a-mislynch"

, please look back at your

HORRID

accuracy in lynches this game and

TRY

to tell me you're

NOT

doing

JUST THAT.

Spoiler: Me Tearing Up The Rest of the Reply

How about the fact that you've on every lynch wagon so far, and your reasons for voting people, to my knowledge, have been vague at best.

So? How is that scummy? Because I don't know who is scum? Or because I agreed with town? I was pretty adamant in my reasons for being on the Profii wagon (lol even if I was adamantly on the Shadpearl wagon for a while.)

Because:

1)

You're not even re-evaluating your reads after flips where you're wrong, you've done this consistently.

2)

Your reasons for being adamant on the profii lynch? Was it because his fakeclaim was caught AND he was casting suspicion on you?

3)

You've shown no signs of pushing back on any of the wagons in this game to my understanding; you're going with the flow of the most popular lynch.

4)

You're not even trying to work with your townreads or what you believe to be town-entities in this game.

5)

Your vague reasoning puts less attention on you, makes misconstruing communication easier, and does not give a clear idea of your thoughts in the game.

I don't see your constant inaccuracy in this game to be a town-mistake... it feels like you're actively lynching people to stay in this game.

Also, I don't think you answered this:

So you're saying havingfitz probably killed Ausuka? Plus, Ausuka was suspecting both you and havingfitz, no?

How about you give me your assessment on

profii

randomly voting and pushing you in between D2 with literally almost no prompt.

I'm pretty sure I gave my opinion at the time that the vote was crap. It was Profii trying and failing to find a wagon.

Post the link where you stated this, and what made you think it wasn't scum-indicative? You never pushed him on it.

How about you actually ask

Almost50

on his scumread over you instead of writing it off as gut.

I thought A50 made it pretty clear that he's in a gut read tunnel. He hasn't asked me any questions. He has not engaged with me. Plus he said early in the game,

texcat I always scum read regardless, and Jimmy hasn't been in the game to begin with.

1)

First off, no. He didn't say it was a gut read, it was partially meta and him concluding you were most likely scum through PoE

2)

I'd doubt to even call

Almost50

tunneling here; more like catching scum.

3)

Even if it was a gut read and he's not asking questions or engaging with you, what's preventing YOU from asking and engaging with HIM?

4)

The quote you pulled was from D2 I believe, and thus irrelevant here.

How about you do your own evaluations of reads right now, considering you seem to have been wrong on who's scum most of this game.

Um.

I thought havingfitz fosing literally the entire playerlist was sort of towny, so I'd probably say texcat.

And yeah I can go look at what Mathdino said but I very much doubt that it's possible to read Shadpearl's alignment from the mod's decision to replace Mathdino.

And I think Fitz fos'ing the entire playlist was scummy as hell. Those can't be his real reads. His top pick for SK was A50?? Really?

I meant your read progression through the game and HOW being on multiple mislynches changed that...

And is

havingfitz

your only read? I guess you scumread me too, and townread

Almost50

because the WIFOM you planted on him didn't work?

Though, what do you think about

texcat

not really responding to our scumreads on them?

I don't think you've really given her much to respond to... it seems to me that the largest part of the case is PoE. And since I don't think that responding to scumreads on oneself is generally that necessary or productive, I don't really think anything of it.

Responding to someone's scumread IS productive. It gives valuable information pre and post flip that help deduce other people's alignments, imo.

I agree.

When there is something to respond to

. I'm trying to show where you've gone wrong. There is nothing for me to show A50.

And yeah, I feel like there's plenty of stuff for

texcat

to respond to.

And what about this has prevented you from trying to engage with

Almost50

? If he's so wrong and you townread him, then why aren't you trying to work with him and let him see your view?

1)

Why did she vote a claimed doc

I thought this was obvious and without going back to look I thought I said at the time. I didn't believe the claim. Boon always fake claims. I thought that TGP would have claimed doc, if the slot was really doc. And then there was the self-vote that looked like a scum claim. I can't imagine not voting for it.

I don't know

Boon

, but lynching a doc-claim is still stupid. You didn't even mention

Boon

in your reasons for not believing the claim.

So I doubt that was the reason you kept your vote on him.

TheGoldenParadox

had no interest or time in this game to claim doc; I don't recall

TGP

being pushed to L-1.

2)

What was the point of this? 21 A little talk with

JaydragonKing

that didn't resolve anything?

It was page 1! What was the point of anything on page 1??? You're really stretching here. And the point was that I didn't like Jaydragon saying that she was just going sheep.

JaydragonKing

rarely ever did anything outside of relieving any potential pressure on him.

Why was 108

Lalendra

a good person to change your vote on? You even said that

JaydragonKing

sheeped her, as I'm guessing was a reason you didn't like his push?

3)

Oh look, 108, the mislynch-bait vote.

Yep, I voted Lalendra for lying about Creature's activity. Is that supposed to be scummy??

How does someone lie about another person's activity?

Creature

wasn't really present, and there was a BS reason for people scumreading him out of the gate in the game.

And while

Lalendra

did vote and think

Creature

was scum for this; where was the lie here?

This makes no sense to me.

4)

620 and 621

texcat

unvotes, and immediately

JayDragonKing

votes for no reason; but he revotes for no reason again. 626

I have no idea what you're trying to say here. My vote had been on TGP, but I unvoted to wait for replacements. The vote in 621 was frustration at waiting. JayDragon's 622 followed mine, but was 7 hours later. Nothing was immediate in this part of the game. And yeah, JayDragon was scum, but if you're trying somehow to link me to JayDragon here, I don't get it.

I don't understand the vote pattern here and I don't understand your explanation; specifically since you were OK with lynching

TheGoldenParadox

despite replacements in 621 and didn't do anything to change your votes or thought after a replacement. 694

5)

694 - she wants to hammer a claimed doc.

6)

754 - I dare her to say I'm still her SK guess.

7)

794 - she never really commented on the selfvote when she decided to 'leave' it.

8)

844 - Like most of the time in this game,

texcat

only really forms a stance and vote when someone prompts her, only.

I've explained my thinking on FlavorLeaf more than once. And I disagree with this characterization of me not taking a stance. My stance on resolving the Profii/Shadpearl claim was clear. I think my stance on Fitz was clear yesterday and again today.

Then since you're so familiar explaining your thought process on

Flavor Leaf

, explain it again to me.

Your apparent scumread of me seems to have appeared when I'm pushing you. You voted

havingfitz

after I prompted you for a read this dayphase, and a few of your votes are based around replies to other people asking you for your thoughts.

9)

899 - Weak handwave dismiss of

profii's

case on her.

Weak handwave was all that "case" deserved.

So you admit to completely ignoring any potential reasoning against you, OK?

Hell, I pushed and acknowledged

profii's

terrible reasoning of his wagon on YOU much more than you did.

Why was this never a point to scumread/push/vote him, to you?

10)

919 - Says that

profii and JaydragonKing

are connected; but provides no associative between them as a scumteam, and just says that

profii

is scum while not looking at the possibility he could've been SK.

You seem desperate to try to tie me to Jaydragon. But Jaydragon was not even mentioned in this post. This was me responding to a question from

you

about a possible connection between Profii and

Jimmy

.

Oh, fuck. You're right. Point redacted, sorry.

OK, whatever.

11)

1117 - Seems to believe there's no chance at all of an NK on

Shadpearl

Huh? Is this the wrong post number? This post was me stating intent to hammer Profii before Profii's tracker claim.

I meant 1177.

12)

1240 - Do I need to elaborate here? Her tune quickly shifts to - likely bussing - profii, and she's stating that 1 group of scum know what's going on and are happy? Does this really come out of town's mouth?

Yes. Don't you think scum was enjoying Profii's tracker claim? This was me explaining to

you

why Profii's claim made no sense. Something you admitted you had overlooked when you later voted Profii in 1262.

Yeah, I overlooked because I didn't want people to quickhammer and I was waffling on my approach to this gamestate based on

Sando's

assessment. I also made it clear that I didn't like lynching any claims at all, period, but I conceded to when an inconsistency in

profii's

fakeclaim validity was found.

And yeah, I'm sure scum LOVED

profii's

tracker claim... because he was scum.

Also, don't try and suspect me for overlooking

profii's

fallacy after you posted 1177

You seemed pretty content on lynching

Shadpearl

instead of leaving him as a possibility for you to 'have-to-maybe' NK.

You still haven't explained each of your reads through PoE in D5.

[Taly]

To put it simply, if I agree equally with the arguments on both sides, then my vote comes down to a coin flip. -But my gutread for Texcat's late-game posts is Town so Havingfits is on the chopping block...

Town? Who IS scum then? Me? The claimed Doctor? S_S? The Mathdino slot? The Slot that basically cleared you? Or is it Taly? The one who has been the Town MVP all game?

You, know what?? I'm withdrawing my TR on Shad. He

could

be the SK here, and that "thing" could be interpreted another way.

Let's talk hypothetical theory: The SK is technically scumhunting for Mafia. They would consider Mafia to be "scum" too. Actually this explains why I have failed to see fitz as a scumster except for PoE. I almost always SR fitz at some point.

So, I'm sticking with the texcat lynch here, and suggest you lynch Shad next if I'm the NK. Of course, if I'm not then I will push it myself.

Please,

Almost50

, tell me how

havingfitz

is not scum to you in PoE; I need to see your full reasoning on this before the day ends.

I mean, look at it this way: Someone (Shad) who knows there to be 2 scums left, a Mafioso and a SK, and is clearing the ONLY logical option any townie in his place would auto-suspect. It directly points out to someone who is NOT town. I'm not sure is he suspects fitz to be the last Mafia (he's not, 100% of the time), or if he thinks it's texcat and still wants her around to make use of her kill tonight. Eitherway, Shad is the SK. texcat is the 3rd Mafia still.

I do see your point here. There can't be 5 town, so if he thinks

texcat

is more likely town overall,

Shadpearl

would believe one of

{Almost50, Taly, Something_Smart}

is scum.

But how I read 1469 is that

Shadpearl

thinks both

havingfitz and texcat

are scum; but isn't as sold on it as I am, because he says there's equal reasoning for voting either of them, and thinks

texcat

is more potentially town in the event he's wrong.

Which, I think could come from town, still. However, I'd like

Shadpearl

to answer this:

What are your reads, give a full readslist and provide reasons on the playerlist. There are 4 town. 1 SK. 1 Scum.

My biggest grievance for

SK-Shad

is the selfvote to

L-1

:
1181

Because to me, the same principle applies as with

Kopherald

.

Shadpearl-SK

would be playing against his wincon by submitting to his lynch in D3.

And it would just sound so dumb for

profii-scum

to fake-guilty

Shadpearl-scumbuddy.

I feel like there's a stronger associative argument with

texcat

being the last in the scumteam here.

~~~

I'm slightly less confident with

havingfitz-SK

, but I'm still set on the town being:

{Almost50, Something_Smart, Taly, Shadpearl}

Frankly, if Taly is the SK here (ir even if he is the last Mafioso) I don't mind forfeiting the game to him at all. That would be brilliant play and deserves to win.

That said, I do NOT think he is anything bu a devoted townie, so I'm not really playing against my win con when I totally exclude him from the lynch pool.

I don't want you to forfeit the game to me.

I want us both to win as town.

texcat's

arguing me for SK because she realizes that nobody else is near conftown based on play, claim, or some form of clearing.

She's voteparking on

havingfitz

because she wants a scapegoat, and

havingfitz

has been horrible at deflating any suspicion on him in this game.

[Taly]

Or is it Taly? The one who has been the Town MVP all game?

The SK could be Town MVP. Just saying.

So I'm guessing you think

havingfitz

is the last of the scumteam, and the buddy of

JayDragonKing and profii

?

Give me at least 5 associative tells that support your argument.

And give me 5 reasons on how I'm SK due to play.

I'm waiting.

[Almost50]

Please, Almost50, tell me how havingfitz is not scum to you in PoE

I have always maintained that he

was

scum, but

only

by PoE. In the event Shad turns out to be scum, then -obviously- there's no reason for me to suspect fitz beyond that bc I'm fairly confident texcat is scum by play.

[Something_Smart]

Give me at least 5 associative tells that support your argument.

And give me 5 reasons on how I'm SK due to play.

I'm waiting.

[Taly]

Please, Almost50, tell me how havingfitz is not scum to you in PoE

I have always maintained that he

was

scum, but

only

by PoE. In the event Shad turns out to be scum, then -obviously- there's no reason for me to suspect fitz beyond that bc I'm fairly confident texcat is scum by play.

Oh, now I see what where you're coming from now.

Give me at least 5 associative tells that support your argument.

And give me 5 reasons on how I'm SK due to play.

I'm waiting.

? I'm a bit done with the

"this person is this"

or

"this person may be that"

without much stated reasoning.

I'm still kind of annoyed that I haven't been NKed in this game, and it's becoming more and more apparent that I'm being lynchbaited.

Plus, if

texcat

wants to place more uncertainty and suspicion on my slot, then she should make her reads and gameview clearer.

[Taly]

This is becoming ridiculous to me.

And I have no idea how the hell to make myself clearer anymore.

[Taly]

Almost50

, so

Shadpearl's

self-vote to L-1 in D3

((1181))

doesn't make you question

Shad-SK

?

[Something_Smart]

Sorry Taly, I often don't have the time or motivation to explain myself fully, especially when phoneposting, so I tend to drop quick and sometimes ambiguous responses.

I don't think the position you're taking there is reasonable or productive. First of all, it was just an offhand mention of a possibility and not a central point, and second of all, if she does manage to come up with what you asked, it will probably either be a terrible argument or get her confbiased.

[Almost50]

Almost50

, so

Shadpearl's

self-vote to L-1 in D3

((1181))

doesn't make you question

Shad-SK

?

It does. Thanks for reminding me.

You see, the problem with this game is it feels its started sometime before the fall of the Roman Empire (or is that the Persian??) and is still ongoing, so I forgot most of the "details" and only have the global feel of it intact still.

Seriously! Did you know Open 713, Open 714 and Open 717 have already ended? Did you know Open 723 is the next game on schedule?

[Almost50]

Sorry Taly, I often don't have the time or motivation to explain myself fully, especially when phoneposting, so I tend to drop quick and sometimes ambiguous responses.

I don't think the position you're taking there is reasonable or productive. First of all, it was just an offhand mention of a possibility and not a central point, and second of all, if she does manage to come up with what you asked, it will probably either be a terrible argument or get her confbiased.

I beg to differ here. I took texcat's remark as an attempt to muddy the waters around Taly and my TR on him. Things should be clear cut at this time. Either Taly is a suspect or is not. To me he's not. If someone wants to argue he should be then they need to present a case. A

real

case. A big fat juicy case.

[Taly]

:/ I see your point,

Something_Smart.

Though, I often to make it to MYLO/LYLO in games as town because I'm often lynchbait... I've even lost games where I've otherwise played GREAT towngames in my opinion, but the other person/people didn't want to hear me out, outside of the suspicion placed on me.

When I provide my thoughts so clearly; it's much easier for scum to muddy them, and that's how I've viewed

texcat

.

I just don't really know what to do at this point is to squeeze out as much clarity as I can find within

Shadpearl

and

havingfitz

, because my read on

texcat

has not changed, and to be honest, it probably won't despite her response.

I don't like that I feel almost fixed in my reads here, given I was wrong D4 and I felt near-fixed in my reads then.

But it's hard for me to sit down and not jump on conflicting fallacies in arguments I see, even when it's not beneficial. It's a bit of a habit, and it's something I've learned about myself through Mafia.

Almost50

, so

Shadpearl's

self-vote to L-1 in D3

((1181))

doesn't make you question

Shad-SK

?

It does. Thanks for reminding me.

You see, the problem with this game is it feels its started sometime before the fall of the Roman Empire (or is that the Persian??) and is still ongoing, so I forgot most of the "details" and only have the global feel of it intact still.

Seriously! Did you know Open 713, Open 714 and Open 717 have already ended? Did you know Open 723 is the next game on schedule?

Yeah, this game's not your normal

Open

. XD

I'm glad you feel stronger about

Shad-town

, I'm guessing?

P-Edit

On a game level, I agree with 1488's assessment, and that's why I pushed more deeply into

texcat's

thoughts.

[Taly]

If we collectively agree the townbloc is

{Almost50, Shadpearl, Taly, Something_Smart}

, or at the very least, believe

texcat

is more likely scum - then I see no point in furthering the day.

I don't want the nightphase to be extended on the account we're waiting for another replacement on

havingfitz's

slot. At that point, it seems pointless and hurts town more via apathy and having to catch someone up on the game when the slot is widely scumread/suspected.

[Taly]

Yes,

Something_Smart

and

Shadpearl

, I'm encouraging you both to join

Almost50

and

I

with our votes.

[Taly]

Havingfitz

has not been online since April 17th, I've checked.

There's no other decision that can be made prior to deadline where town can be as solidified as this; lynching

texcat

.

Unless

Almost50

is OK with hopping onto the

havingfitz

lynch, which I would hammer, as I've stated before - but I trust what he'd rather do here.

[Almost50]

What's the VC like?

[Taly]

Official Vote Count 5.2

texcat (2) - Almost50, Taly
havingfitz (2) - texcat, Shadpearl

Not voting (2) - havingfitz, Something_Smart

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch

(expired on 2018-05-06 17:00:00)

This has not changed to my understanding.

[Almost50]

OK then..

VOTE: havingfitz

[Taly]

Something_Smart

,

Shadpearl

Are we ready to end the day, and are we in sync with reads?

I'll hammer in a few hours.

[Taly]

Also, I greatly encourage you to protect yourself tonight,

Almost50

Idgaf if

texcat

sees this.

The probability of my mislynch is much lower if you're alive as well, and we cannot afford a mislynch tomorrow even if we are correct today.

[Taly]

And you're virtually an IC, and we're going into 4p mylo most likely tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

Can't believe he just completely disappeared :/

I really want to hear from the slot before ending the day but going to the trouble of getting a replacement just to lynch them is awful and the replacement wouldn't be able to give any meaningful input anyway.