Open 715 - White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Pine]

- The reasons for this wagon are still BS.
- Conf bias says this Fitz' unwillingness to hammer is town indicative.
- Athena's vote is opportunistic and her opinions regarding me and Fitz run parallel to almost everyone else's; following a behavioral pattern after something BIG has happened is more scum indicative to me.
- I expect Shad will sheep this wagon to L-0 when or if they get back.

VOTE: CultofAthena

Someone please hammer and let Ghost stop desperately shopping for an alternate lynch.

That was my impression too.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Unsure as to why Quick would not vote me given we have less than a week left before deadline. There are no other viable non-Having wagons and Quick has idled their vote all day.

Hmmm ....

[Pine]

Yup

[TheButtonmen]

ShadPearl is being replaced.

GreyICE replaces Shadpearl effective immediately.

[Pine]

Sup GI. You scum bro?

[GreyICE]

Nope, town unfortunately.

[GreyICE]

Magna is town, this is white flag, he hasn't been shot. Hm.

This game is WEIRD

[GreyICE]

Why are there two self-hammers in this fucking game

[GreyICE]

BUTTONMAN ARGESTGLDGLFSEDLGDSLGSDL

THIS IS IADSAFSDFDSSDF

OKAY THIS WILL BE DAMARAMU'S GREATEST CHALLENGE

PREPARE YOURSELVES

I WILL GO PREPARE VODKA LOTS OF VODKA

[GreyICE]

Okay, this was going to be a bunch of kvetching, but apparently there's a post limit in a 24 hour period. Since I didn't realize that, my usual flurry of replace in posts is getting suspended.

So far I want to lynch Alchemist 121, Quick Maker, and Bellephant.

Has anyone even prodded Alchemist121 at all? It's almost disgusting how little attention he's getting for how little he's been posting.

I do not love the HavingFitz lynch. His read on Korina of "I would give up mafia if I let Korina win as scum... but I still want to lynch other people" is pretty damn natural. What's going on there?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Kinda what I expected. My final prognostication is Having / Grey / Anon. Because scum Quick would have already hammered Town Having long ago if he was scum with Pine and Alchemist21.

Almost feel free to question Grey or just hammer scum Having.

[Pine]

^This

[Pine]

I'm still on the fence with Fitz's partners though. I think it's two in {Shad/Grey, Anon, Alchemist}

[Almost50]

@GI: You do realize Bella = Pine, Right?

Let me start with this (irrelevant. Just warming you up and getting you into the mood)

Nope, town unfortunately.

This implies you prefer to play scum and/or was hoping to replace into a scum sot. Is this correct?

Magna is town, this is white flag, he hasn't been shot. Hm.

This game is WEIRD

This doesn't give me a definitive read, as it could be interpreted in many ways. Are you saying MoI is TOWN... and it's weird he didn't get shot? (that's the way I got i first). Or are you saying

IF

MoI is town then it's weird he didn't get shot?

Finally, can you elaborate on your picks for the scum team? For one thing I don't think you can get 3 reads like that shortly after you replaced in, but maybe you're that good. However, you only gave reasoning to suspecting Alch, and neither gave reasons for the other two to be scum on an individual level nor have you said why the 3 are linked together in your mind.

Oh, and please try to be precise so I won't have to rephrase the questions, because we hardly have much time left.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Almost FYI if we stretch this day out to the very end and Having flips Scum as I expect I’m going to be lowkey pissed at you for having this day go forever when the scum-team has basically thrown in the towel …

--

A further piece of evidence Quick found against MoI is that 711 seems to line up lynches. MoI is effectively committing to lynching one of the four in their lynchpool if Havingfitz is Town, MoI can lynch them and try to decide the next day's lynch as well (they can push whichever of the four seems most convenient tomorrow), while today they can keep pushing Havingfitz. Again, this seems more plausible from a scum mindset, as Town would tend to be more open to evaluating what happens once the flip occurs rather than trying to commit right now.

So Quick I want you to answer this directly without passing it through BTD since this is his find …

You are serious in suggesting that in answering a hypothetical question posed by Almost I’m lining up lynches and showing scum intent? Deadly serious on this request.

[Almost50]

@MoI: Do you want me to hammer now? I'm here and I have nothing more to say and I'm not seeing anyone else doing anything relatively important, so yeah.. I'm ready to end the day.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lol, I've literally been asking you to do so for a week so ...



Having flips scum and we have 2 lynches to hit 1 scum. I suggest Anon then Grey but I don't think it gets past Anon.

[Almost50]

OK..

VOTE: Havingfitz

And I do agree on AG but I don't want to lynch Grey (that's Shadpearl's slot, right?)

[Pine]

Fucking finally

[Almost50]

@Pine: How do you read AG/Grey now? Which of the two would you be more comfortable lynching next?

[Almost50]

Basically I want to rally as many people on AG as possible so she won't escape the lynch regardless of the NK.

[AnonymousGhost]

Well, that's not suspicious at all.

[Pine]

Well. I was pretty convinced that Shadpearl was scum. However, I've got paranoia telling me that he may have just been dumbnewbie. I'd like to see the color of Anon's blood, but I also suspect Alchemist. In other words, I think it's Fitz and two of {Anon, Alch, Grey}. Not sure which. We've got a ML to spend, and I think if we stay in that group we're good.

[Almost50]

Well, that's not suspicious at all.

Thank you very much for the double confirmation. You've just admitted fitz is going to flip scum, so you not voting him is pretty condemning, but that wasn't my concern. I was concerned more about Having's alignment, and you've just admitted he WILL flip scum.

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

Well I'm ages away from catching up, but let me get out what I can. I think MOI is town, especially since it turns out he replaced in. That's a better explanation of why he's not dead.

Alchemist is mostly about a lack of anything resembling any deep thought, or anything longer than one liners. It's easy to write a sentence like "@flubber What are your thoughts on Fitz? You went from null reading him to voting him without anything in between" or "You can actually read my post where I stated my NM Townread and see my justification. You only quoted him and said "Town" with no justification. And to quote someone and simply say "town" expresses a hard Townread." He's strategically just poking at easy targets, and he's obvious scum.

Pine is transparently scum. It's mostly in the tone for Pine, he's a very laid back scumfuck unless he can convince himself he's playing righteously. And he can't exactly convince himself that there's a serial killer in this game. As a result we see the very lackadaisical scum Pine I'm used to. He mostly votes for bad play, since it's easy to get worked up over bad play, and that's what he's doing here.

As for why I'm sad I'm town, I believe town win rates in white flags are sub 40%. Maybe sub-30%. With two town lynches already, there's a very low percentage chance that town win this. And that was before I realized there were two town selfhammers. Shit, if I were scum, this would be a free fucking win. As it is, saving your sorry asses is going to be nearly impossible. Not that I haven't pulled out a LyLo before for town on replace in, but we're talking very, very, very hard.