Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[pinturicchio]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

So, do you think Sesq is more likely to be scum than Kop?

Three options:
1. They are scumpartners and he wants to be on the wagon in case Kop eventually gets lynched, which is plausible.
2. Sesq is scum and Kop isn't, and Sesq saw that the wagon could lose momentum.
3. Sesq is town and thinks Kop is scum.

As I still think Kop is scum, I'm inclined to 1, but I do believe that Kop's wagon got a lot of momentum in a very short time, so it could perfectly have some scums pushing it. I don't believe Sesq being town motivated, as he could have voted for Kop before.

[Myloninja13]

I'm back from V/LA, but I'm super tired right now so I'll comment properly tomorrow.

[UnaBombaH]

didn't realize forgetfulness was scumplay now

I dislike this even more actually..
Basing that vote on "forgetfulness" when only few posts earlier ON THE SAME PAGE, Cake-guy unvoted.
Meaning that if Sesq wasn't paying enough attention to call the L-1, he might have even hammered on "accident"? (assuming Cake-guy hadn't unvoted when he did)

and it was clear why i thought he was scum, if you read my post

..or did you actually mean to hammer away and missed?
I also read that post, and while it's clear that you called him scum for..something ..I did not find any actual, sound, solid reasoning for why he DEFINITELY ABSOLUTELY should be the lynch.
In my books, Kop is still on the same dead-straight null line, so I'm intrigued by your determination..

[Generic Hydra]

@Mod me and n33dl3 are on V/LA for basically all of today.

Goddamn ACT

-- Noted.

-- I hate it too.

[Ok Nyeo]

So, who wants to have a chat about this claim with me? I feel like my opinions about these sort of situations are controversial.

For the most part, towns are pretty ruthless when it comes to following through on lynching D1 VT claims. The problem is, most scum are aware of this idiosyncrasy and tend to favour claiming PR's, which creates the ugly D1 metagame of having PR-claims being disproportionately scum-heavy and VT-claims disproportionately town-heavy. Ultimately, if you want to have the best chance of lynching scum D1, you generally need to take a risk in lynching a PR. Most towns are adverse to this concept, and tend to play it safe and lynch the VT and keep the PR pool hidden -- this is a valid strategy as PR's can win you the game, but you're

almost always

lynching town D1 because of it.

When I used to keep track of Mini Normal stats, I used to record things like VT claims on D1 to check how often town/scum claimed that role respectively. IIRC, scum claimed VT 5 times compared to about ~50 truthful VT claims. In analysing the handful of times that scum claimed VT, it was generally done by newbish scum who didn't really seem to get site meta of claiming a PR to try and survive deeper into the game. Granted, I haven't updated any of these stats for more than 18 months, but I doubt the metagame has shifted significantly.

This is where I'll get Gamma to weigh in. Do you think Kop is a switched on enough player to realise that claiming VT as scum in this situation is suboptimal? Would you expect a PR claim from him in this spot as scum?

Also, unvoting while I do my some research.

UNVOTE:

I think there is definitely some validity to this reasoning. We had a similar discussion over at my homesite in a recent game (not the same setup, but a roughly comparable situation), and reached a similar conclusion... I think in a semi-open PR-heavy setup like this one, scum does have very little to lose by claiming PR this early in the game. We might end up lynching the scum!PR tomorrow, but it's still better than today if it ends up with a mislynch somewhere down the line, and depending on the claim, they could live even longer. I haven't played enough relevant games on this site to have a good sense of the site meta as far as this sort of claiming is concerned though.

Noting that it isn't safe to apply this reasoning to any future VT claims this game since if claiming VT will mean that scum will avoid the lynch, then claiming VT is now optimal for this game.

Also, Hoopla is Town.

Can you explain your TR on hoopla?



I would vote for Kop, but their wagon gained votes too easily. I doubt they are mafia right now.

[Ok Nyeo]

The comments on 341 does not really look good. Sesq voted Kop because they did not played long enough? Saying they are scum for this does not make any sense.

VOTE: sesq

[Ok Nyeo]

all the annoying factors are out so ok

still want a response though

VOTE: gamma

Why did you vote gamma at this point? What response were you talking about?

[TheGoldenParadox]

Why do you guys keep stealing me pagetops?

Votecount 1.9

Kop(5)

~ Fredrick A Campbell(16), Gamma Emerald(38), Generic Hydra(75), LaserGuy(13), Sesq(10)

Sesq(3)

~ Pinturicchio(18), UnaBombaH(10), Ok Nyeo(29)

Myloninja13(2)

~ Kop(8), Judge Joseph Dredd(9)

Judge Joseph Dredd(2)

~ UglyDuck(10), Myloninja13(6)


Not Voting (1): Hoopla(17)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-29 18:25:00)
Next mod deadline review is in (expired on 2018-03-22 18:25:00)

MOD notes

I will be V/LA from March 31st until April 14th. I will be able to post votecounts but less frequently. If you need a votecount you can use MathBlade's Vote Scrubber and put the following information:

Spoiler: Information

Thread Shortened: f=51&t=75428
postNumber = 0

to get a votecount.

[LaserGuy]

Also, Hoopla is Town.

Can you explain your TR on hoopla?

hoopla's tone is extremely townie. This specific discussion regarding the VT claim I also feel is very unlikely to come from scum. Scum has little to gain by attempting to push the lynch off of a true VT. OTOH, there is very little to be gained from scum!hoopla trying to save a buddy at L-1 in this manner. If the lynch goes through anyway or if Kop flips scum later, then he'll be under a lot of suspicion.

UNVOTE: Kop

[LaserGuy]

That moment when you open the activity overview to do some ISOs and you see that the mod has the 2nd highest post count.

OK, why is there a wagon on Gamma? I think he's town

The two people voting me are both scummy, but not because they're voting me. It's because neither has done anything else other than voting me.

I have good feelings about Laser Guy, UnaBombaH & Kop.

@Una: you didn't start the wagon on Gamma. Hoopla did, then you then Sesq

VOTE: Myloninja13

Again, not because he's voting me but because he did nothing else and also because 3 of the 4 I TR aside from the IC are voting there

If I wasn't already voting you, I would because of this post.

What's wrong with this post? Why are you voting for JDD?

[LaserGuy]

I would vote for Kop, but their wagon gained votes too easily. I doubt they are mafia right now.

Why aren't you answering the questions directed at you? E.g. here.

[LaserGuy]

I'm of 2 minds
I think lynching the VT claim is the safe choice as we don't want to out the PRs
But since my call for the Masons to claim was met by general objection I can see this one too to be viewed as advocating a mislynch on purpose

fwiw I buy the claim from Kop and I think if lynched he will flip a villager just like he said, but I don't know if lynching him is good or bad so I'm staying put

What do you mean by the last line here? If you think he's going to flip Town, what value do you think there is in lynching him?

[Hoopla]

As I still think Kop is scum, I'm inclined to 1,

but I do believe that Kop's wagon got a lot of momentum in a very short time, so it could perfectly have some scums pushing it

. I don't believe Sesq being town motivated, as he could have voted for Kop before.

A seductive soundbite, but I think speed of a wagon is sometimes overvalued. Sometimes the stars align and a group of townies lock in on the same frequency (not always a correct frequency) without scum help.

Moving on, there's nothing I like more than a juicy speedwagon on D1 other than a juicy counterwagon on D1, and I do like Sesq for scum more than Kop, soooo...

Vote: Sesq

[Hoopla]

Woah, I just typed that vote normally and somehow it came out big and red. I think ~*

the universe

*~ must be trying to tell us something...

[Gamma Emerald]

Also, Hoopla is Town.

Can you explain your TR on hoopla?

hoopla's tone is extremely townie. This specific discussion regarding the VT claim I also feel is very unlikely to come from scum. Scum has little to gain by attempting to push the lynch off of a true VT. OTOH, there is very little to be gained from scum!hoopla trying to save a buddy at L-1 in this manner. If the lynch goes through anyway or if Kop flips scum later, then he'll be under a lot of suspicion.

UNVOTE: Kop

I think hoopla is town regardless of Kop alignment
Not a fan of you switching tune on how you're reading him

[Gamma Emerald]

wat

[TheGoldenParadox]

Woah, I just typed that vote normally and somehow it came out big and red. I think ~*

the universe

*~ must be trying to tell us something...

-- No, it's God.

Have you noticed that "god" rhymes with "mod"?

[Hoopla]

Hang on, let me try it on someone else. This is just a normal vote.

UNVOTE:

Vote: Kop

[Hoopla]

WOOAAHHH HOLY SHIT

this is crazy. I don't know about you guys, but I'm convinced. Something magical, nay, something ethereal is going on here. I think the mafia gods must be divining supreme knowledge down upon this blessed town.

[LaserGuy]

Also, Hoopla is Town.

Can you explain your TR on hoopla?

hoopla's tone is extremely townie. This specific discussion regarding the VT claim I also feel is very unlikely to come from scum. Scum has little to gain by attempting to push the lynch off of a true VT. OTOH, there is very little to be gained from scum!hoopla trying to save a buddy at L-1 in this manner. If the lynch goes through anyway or if Kop flips scum later, then he'll be under a lot of suspicion.

UNVOTE: Kop

I think hoopla is town regardless of Kop alignment
Not a fan of you switching tune on how you're reading him

Kop or hoopla? I had hoopla in my "looking pretty good" pile earlier (roughly Town lean).

[Generic Hydra]

Ok, I'm back for the moment. Prodge post from me really, but, we think Sesq is now scum and Kop is town?

Also, fuck the ACT. I had to literally guess the last 10ish problems because those were all from like Calculus, motherfucker. If I get a bad score on the math section, I'm blaming that.
Also, god backwards is dog.

I'm of 2 minds
I think lynching the VT claim is the safe choice as we don't want to out the PRs
But since my call for the Masons to claim was met by general objection I can see this one too to be viewed as advocating a mislynch on purpose

fwiw I buy the claim from Kop and I think if lynched he will flip a villager just like he said, but I don't know if lynching him is good or bad so I'm staying put

What do you mean by that? If you think he's town, you'd want him to be around if he's town right?

-Kor (also I did post the post saying fuck the ACT).

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm of 2 minds
I think lynching the VT claim is the safe choice as we don't want to out the PRs
But since my call for the Masons to claim was met by general objection I can see this one too to be viewed as advocating a mislynch on purpose

fwiw I buy the claim from Kop and I think if lynched he will flip a villager just like he said, but I don't know if lynching him is good or bad so I'm staying put

What do you mean by the last line here? If you think he's going to flip Town, what value do you think there is in lynching him?

It's explained in the top paragraph. I don't know if it's safer to lynch a claimed VT or to wagon someone else who might turn to be a PR and we force them to out

[Kop]

Sorry, I've been busy with work, I ain't going to get anything done tonight, will be on tomorrow.

[Gamma Emerald]

WHAT THE F*CK
BASTARD MOD

-- I am not a bastard mod. That is obvious.

[TheGoldenParadox]

-- Just a note: I did not change the color or size of Hoopla's vote, as that would constitute me changing vote tags, which is strictly forbidden.