Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[Hoopla]

I can't soulread them but I feel like I should be able to tell Kop!town vs Kop!scum given an extensive meta of times where I was both partners with him and scum where he was town. I feel like this is more like scum!him than town!him. In addition in general his responses haven't given me much to like. Hopping on Myloninja wasn't very impressive, and his instant accusation of lying towards me seems a bit too on-edge for town.

Good2know

Why was I wagoning you in the first place? You clearly have some value if you're town.

[LaserGuy]

Doesn't SK have option of one shot bulletproof

Pregame choice of godfather or one-shot bulletproof.

[Gamma Emerald]

I can't soulread them but I feel like I should be able to tell Kop!town vs Kop!scum given an extensive meta of times where I was both partners with him and scum where he was town. I feel like this is more like scum!him than town!him. In addition in general his responses haven't given me much to like. Hopping on Myloninja wasn't very impressive, and his instant accusation of lying towards me seems a bit too on-edge for town.

Good2know

Why was I wagoning you in the first place? You clearly have some value if you're town.

It was mostly a content generating vote I feel.

[Hoopla]

CLAIM TIME

Please fill out this form Kop:

I, mafiascum user Kop hereby officially claim ________ <----

your roleclaim/fakeclaim goes here

I apologise to the good people of the town for my pattern of devious behaviour and hope the town can see it in their hearts to forgive me. I acknowledge that forgiveness is out of my control and if my fellow townsfolk so wish to have my head, I humbly accept this fate. All hail the glorious and wise town of C9++!

Signed ____ <----

your username goes here

[pinturicchio]

Confirmed: birthday cake is fun

[Kop]

Vanilla Townie.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Votecount 1.8

Kop(L-1)

~ Fredrick A Campbell(15), Pinturicchio(15), Gamma Emerald(35), Hoopla(12), Generic Hydra(74), LaserGuy(12)

Myloninja13(2)

~ Kop(8), Judge Joseph Dredd(7)

Judge Joseph Dredd(2)

~ UglyDuck(10), Myloninja13(5)

UglyDuck(1)

~ Ok Nyeo(26)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ UnaBombaH(7)


Not Voting (1): Sesq(8)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-29 18:25:00)
Next mod deadline review is in (expired on 2018-03-22 18:25:00)

MOD notes

Myloninja13 is V/LA until 4:15 PM 10/19, PST.

I will be V/LA from March 31st until April 14th. I will be able to post votecounts but less frequently. If you need a votecount you can use MathBlade's Vote Scrubber and put the following information:

Spoiler: Information

Thread Shortened: f=51&t=75428
postNumber = 0

to get a votecount.

[Hoopla]

Vanilla Townie.

Now, just to clarify, is this a fakeclaim or your real role?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I have a feeling that there's something weird going on between the "votecircle" of Judge J.D. - UglyDuck - OK Nyeo - Myloninja13.
Ok Nyeo has been acting strangely, and seems to avoid direct confrontation. Hiding behind a "funny answer" such as "spy-stuff" or whatnot can't be neglected for long. Very non-committal and evasive posting. Their vote is on UglyDuck.

UglyDuck voted Judge Dredd very early, based on Dredd suggesting that masons should claim. Duck ASKS A LOT OF QUESTIONS, BUT OFFERS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF OPEN READS/ANALYSIS. Feels like a scum posing activity in scumhunting.. Their vote is still on Judge Dredd.

Judge Dredd opened with the idea for a Masonry-claim. Got an immediate town-feel from it, but obviously the action in itself should be considered NAI (easy for scum to take the initiative and hide behind it) Posting hasn't been very informative after that, but not straight-up scummy either. Their vote is on Myloninja13, and not with much of a reason yet, I think.

Myloninja13...hasn't been able to say much ANYTHING yet. Their vote is currently still on Judge Dredd, apparently based on his suggestion for the Mason-claim.

Short version: you have 4 suspects grouped into 2 opposite sides. I'm voting one and Neyo's voting the other (me/Meyo are one side) while the other side (Ugly/Mylo) are both on me.

I hence suggest we lynching in these 4 should be more informative.

[Hoopla]

So, who wants to have a chat about this claim with me? I feel like my opinions about these sort of situations are controversial.

For the most part, towns are pretty ruthless when it comes to following through on lynching D1 VT claims. The problem is, most scum are aware of this idiosyncrasy and tend to favour claiming PR's, which creates the ugly D1 metagame of having PR-claims being disproportionately scum-heavy and VT-claims disproportionately town-heavy. Ultimately, if you want to have the best chance of lynching scum D1, you generally need to take a risk in lynching a PR. Most towns are adverse to this concept, and tend to play it safe and lynch the VT and keep the PR pool hidden -- this is a valid strategy as PR's can win you the game, but you're

almost always

lynching town D1 because of it.

When I used to keep track of Mini Normal stats, I used to record things like VT claims on D1 to check how often town/scum claimed that role respectively. IIRC, scum claimed VT 5 times compared to about ~50 truthful VT claims. In analysing the handful of times that scum claimed VT, it was generally done by newbish scum who didn't really seem to get site meta of claiming a PR to try and survive deeper into the game. Granted, I haven't updated any of these stats for more than 18 months, but I doubt the metagame has shifted significantly.

This is where I'll get Gamma to weigh in. Do you think Kop is a switched on enough player to realise that claiming VT as scum in this situation is suboptimal? Would you expect a PR claim from him in this spot as scum?

Also, unvoting while I do my some research.

UNVOTE:

[Gamma Emerald]

So, who wants to have a chat about this claim with me? I feel like my opinions about these sort of situations are controversial.

For the most part, towns are pretty ruthless when it comes to following through on lynching D1 VT claims. The problem is, most scum are aware of this idiosyncrasy and tend to favour claiming PR's, which creates the ugly D1 metagame of having PR-claims being disproportionately scum-heavy and VT-claims disproportionately town-heavy. Ultimately, if you want to have the best chance of lynching scum D1, you generally need to take a risk in lynching a PR. Most towns are adverse to this concept, and tend to play it safe and lynch the VT and keep the PR pool hidden -- this is a valid strategy as PR's can win you the game, but you're

almost always

lynching town D1 because of it.

When I used to keep track of Mini Normal stats, I used to record things like VT claims on D1 to check how often town/scum claimed that role respectively. IIRC, scum claimed VT 5 times compared to about ~50 truthful VT claims. In analysing the handful of times that scum claimed VT, it was generally done by newbish scum who didn't really seem to get site meta of claiming a PR to try and survive deeper into the game. Granted, I haven't updated any of these stats for more than 18 months, but I doubt the metagame has shifted significantly.

This is where I'll get Gamma to weigh in. Do you think Kop is a switched on enough player to realise that claiming VT as scum in this situation is suboptimal? Would you expect a PR claim from him in this spot as scum?

Also, unvoting while I do my some research.

UNVOTE:

First off this actually has woken me up as to why Normals are so PR-heavy these days. Don't want to get into this now but I'll definitely bring it up in Mafia Discussion when this game is over.
As for Kop being a scum who would claim PR I think I remember him doing it once but I'll have to dive for that, but what interests me more is the setup. I feel like this setup makes fakeclaiming PR a bit more of a gamble. Take my last experience with the setup. I replaced into a scum rb slot, ended up playing really scummy, and claimed one shot rb not realizing that wasn't the 1-roll role for blockers. As such scum need to be more mindful of their claim. I might check the timing but for now I think Kop claimed pretty quickly.

[pinturicchio]

Mr. Cake, I was writting the exact same thing, but without the in depth statistics. In a game were nobody knows in which setup we're in, claiming a PR is completely recomended for scum; nobody, even the PRs, would say anything. BUT, if that claimed PR doesn't die at Night, that would be suspicious enough to come back to him, so claiming VT could indeed be a better choice for scum, as if they don't die at Night, they could state that maybe the scumteam tried to kill a PR or the Serial Killer.

The way that Kop made his claim makes me think the latter more than the former, so my vote is staying right were it is for now.

[Gamma Emerald]

So it looks like it was a prompt response but there's also the fact that he seems to have already left. I think he might be on the first level here (claiming VT because it's the basic option).

[Hoopla]

As for Kop being a scum who would claim PR I think I remember him doing it once but I'll have to dive for that

I just had a flick through Kop's history as scum, but didn't notice this game you mentioned -- can you find it for me?

Kop seems to have an unfortunate habit of being shot at night as scum, playing fully open games (so no fakeclaiming) and in some of his earlier games replacing out quite frequently, so we don't have a huge sample of claiming to work with. There are a couple of games that seem like relevant reading: Micro 686

I'm just a member of the audience, I have no part in the play. My only power is my vote so basically just a VT.

<snip>

In Micro 686 he ends up claiming VT here, which on the surface seems like decent evidence against Kop, but looking at his postgame explanation:

I chose to claim VT and not The Princess who we knew wasn't in the game, as I wanted to leave that for Imperium in the event that I got lynched, I didn't want to end up being lynched and took the fake claim, leaving Imperium with nothing to claim that could buy him time.

This actually seems like good critical thinking around the claiming situation -- not taking the provided fakeclaim when you're under pressure and saving it for a better placed teammate is kinda smart (and using the provided fakeclaim would be the easiest thing to do/level 1 thing to do). So, I don't necessarily agree with Gamma's assessment of Kop being on the first level here. There's also Open 639 where he went down as a Serial Killer:

Good game folks. I was going to claim vigilante, but I knew I was screwed either way, regardless of what I claimed.

I think I knacked myself up by killing Rask night one, because sense went out of the window with that kill.

Screwed either way, but still would have gone for a Vig claim. I'd also like to see the game Gamma is talking about, but right now, my read is he isn't just blindly taking the basic option without thinking. Both of those situations involved some level of thinking. If anything, the swift response makes it more likely to be true, imo.

[LaserGuy]

So, who wants to have a chat about this claim with me? I feel like my opinions about these sort of situations are controversial.

For the most part, towns are pretty ruthless when it comes to following through on lynching D1 VT claims. The problem is, most scum are aware of this idiosyncrasy and tend to favour claiming PR's, which creates the ugly D1 metagame of having PR-claims being disproportionately scum-heavy and VT-claims disproportionately town-heavy. Ultimately, if you want to have the best chance of lynching scum D1, you generally need to take a risk in lynching a PR. Most towns are adverse to this concept, and tend to play it safe and lynch the VT and keep the PR pool hidden -- this is a valid strategy as PR's can win you the game, but you're

almost always

lynching town D1 because of it.

When I used to keep track of Mini Normal stats, I used to record things like VT claims on D1 to check how often town/scum claimed that role respectively. IIRC, scum claimed VT 5 times compared to about ~50 truthful VT claims. In analysing the handful of times that scum claimed VT, it was generally done by newbish scum who didn't really seem to get site meta of claiming a PR to try and survive deeper into the game. Granted, I haven't updated any of these stats for more than 18 months, but I doubt the metagame has shifted significantly.

This is where I'll get Gamma to weigh in. Do you think Kop is a switched on enough player to realise that claiming VT as scum in this situation is suboptimal? Would you expect a PR claim from him in this spot as scum?

Also, unvoting while I do my some research.

UNVOTE:

I think there is definitely some validity to this reasoning. We had a similar discussion over at my homesite in a recent game (not the same setup, but a roughly comparable situation), and reached a similar conclusion... I think in a semi-open PR-heavy setup like this one, scum does have very little to lose by claiming PR this early in the game. We might end up lynching the scum!PR tomorrow, but it's still better than today if it ends up with a mislynch somewhere down the line, and depending on the claim, they could live even longer. I haven't played enough relevant games on this site to have a good sense of the site meta as far as this sort of claiming is concerned though.

Noting that it isn't safe to apply this reasoning to any future VT claims this game since if claiming VT will mean that scum will avoid the lynch, then claiming VT is now optimal for this game.

Also, Hoopla is Town.

[Gamma Emerald]

Actually I think I was misremembering something (don't know what though), and I actually found reason to believe he's more inclined to claim VT than PR as scum. In Roleblocker6, Micro 718, we were both scum and discussed claiming strategies in pregame, and he told me he didn't see the point in claiming anything besides VT. So that should speak to the type of scum he is.
Bit upset with myself for misremembering but I at least found a nugget of info from my mistake.

[Sesq]

We're lynching Kop then today, and getting Nyeo tomorrow depending on who flips what I presume?

Also, from me and n33dl3's discussions:

• If Kop flips scum, and vig, if you exist, shoot Mylo tonight.
  
• If Kop flips town, and vig, if you exist, don't shoot anyone tonight.
  
• Doctor, if you exist, your heal target should be any of your town reads + us.

Everything else we've discussed is various things about the reaction-test, so nothing really worthwhile to share.


VOTE: Kop
L-2, btw.

-Kor

Wait, what, that doesn't make sense to me. If there is a vig out there, you are asking them to shoot Mylo, but you've been gunning for Nyeo for majority of this game, surely you'd be asking the vig to shoot that slot?

If there is a vig in this game, I'm not really a fan of trying to direct where they go, or who they decide to shoot. I respect that you are confirmed town, and should hold a huge say in the game state, but you are effectively trying to take away the vigilantes opinion away and telling them what to do. And if they go against you, any claim they make later in the game, they'll be held accountable because they've gone against your word and will most likely be SK-read because of that. And if there is a SK in the game, they could easily follow your lead then claim vigilante which would buy them credit.

lots of what ifs

kor doesnt make sense either

Those games are top secret, you know, spy stuff.
By the way, what are your reads? Do you have any other reads than me?

@Gamma Emerald, what is your read on Kop? Do you think he usually plays like this?

I think he's kinda playing like scum him plus after Pin pointed out how Kop's post I noticed how much I felt the surprise felt faked, so yeah I'm scumreading Kop

And you came to this false conclusion after one post, and the game only being 2 or 3 days old?

y...you haven't played long enough! even though its the assumption that opinions are malleable at this stage and dont matter a lot!

scum.

Okay, quick thoughts:

Gamma, Hoopla, pinturcchio all looking pretty good.

I think JDD's mason claim strategy is probably coming from Town. The reasoning checks out, and even if I don't agree that it's a strategy that's worth pursuing, bad strategy suggestions are usually the province of Town.

Kop wagon makes sense to me. I get a bad vibe from him.

Ok Nyeo's content is so weird I don't know what to do with a lot of it. A lot of it feels so unself-conscious that I have a hard time believing it could come from scum, e.g. 26, 69, 95, 166. Some definitely scummy stuff... Voting patterns are all over the place. String of naked votes, including a self-vote. Is deliberately being evasive. Yeah, I don't even know what to do with this slot. If this setup allowed for a jester, I'd say jester.

Sesq's posting style is consistent with the last game I played with her where she was Town. IIRC she's pretty abraisive as either alignment, so I don't think that I can read much into her tone at the moment.

nyeo's town

hasn't done anything scummy, all their logic lines up
Can you explain where you're getting this from?


Nobody else really standing out one way or the other to me.

VOTE: kop

[Fredrick A Campbell]

No actually, I’m not. I did my reaction test, I got my results.
Honestly rn, Nyeo is an info lynch for me.
It confirms (at least for me), you and Duck as possible partners, and it helps me figure out people’s alignments.
Please explain why you think Gamma and Nyeo are town before I assume you’re their scumbuddies.
-Kor

Wait you're scumreading me now? I'd ask you what changed but it doesn't really matter because you're IC and don't have to justify yourself, I just feel blindsided.

I’d like to Calirify something here on behalf of my other head, right now gamma is a slight town read but the actions of nyeo (if nyeo ends up being scum) suggests possible scum team, but tbh I don’t exactly see we to eye with kor atm on reads, I honestly think very little has happened this game but I think nyeo is an ok possible lynch.
-n33dl3

I shouldn't be an English teacher over hear but I think by Calirify you mean clarify. Anyway, the following posts assumes that by Calirify you mean clarify.

While I do agree that it suggests a possible scum team, I do think it's important to note there are at least two other players who have plainly stated why they don't think you are right about Nyeo being scum. What makes the other players less likely than Gamma Emerald to be part of the scum team that they aren't also suspects if Nyeo turns out to be scum?

Generic Hydra, I'm waiting for your response.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm of 2 minds
I think lynching the VT claim is the safe choice as we don't want to out the PRs
But since my call for the Masons to claim was met by general objection I can see this one too to be viewed as advocating a mislynch on purpose

fwiw I buy the claim from Kop and I think if lynched he will flip a villager just like he said, but I don't know if lynching him is good or bad so I'm staying put

[pinturicchio]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

[Hoopla]

Actually I think I was misremembering something (don't know what though), and I actually found reason to believe he's more inclined to claim VT than PR as scum. In Roleblocker6, Micro 718, we were both scum and discussed claiming strategies in pregame, and he told me he didn't see the point in claiming anything besides VT. So that should speak to the type of scum he is.
Bit upset with myself for misremembering but I at least found a nugget of info from my mistake.

So, I went and looked up that Mafia thread you were talking about, and this seems to be the quote you're referring to:

If I'm understanding correctly, we're either in with Jailkeeper, Macho roleblocker.

Or we're in with a cop and tracker.

We can either safely claim VT, or try draw out the two main power roles. If they are in the game. Cop would be the safer option or tracker to remove any investigative roles that could out us.

You were either in the setup where the only PR's are Cop/Tracker or JK/Macho Roleblocker -- so fakeclaiming a PR isn't really viable here without being counterclaimed. You can either safely claim VT or you can claim a PR to draw out a town PR. To me, it doesn't seem like he's favouring one over the other -- he's just listing the options. In this setup, C9++, it is definitely viable for scum to pull off a fakeclaim that can last a Day or two, or even until endgame if they get lucky, so I think that talk in Micro 718 isn't super relevant as to what he'd do in this game as scum and is fairly neutral/null.

[Hoopla]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

So, do you think Sesq is more likely to be scum than Kop?

[Sesq]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

didn't realize forgetfulness was scumplay now

and it was clear why i thought he was scum, if you read my post

[UnaBombaH]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

After reading what you people provided with the wagon, this peaked my interest the most thusfar..
VOTE: Sesq

[UnaBombaH]

I have a feeling that there's something weird going on between the "votecircle" of Judge J.D. - UglyDuck - OK Nyeo - Myloninja13.
Ok Nyeo has been acting strangely, and seems to avoid direct confrontation. Hiding behind a "funny answer" such as "spy-stuff" or whatnot can't be neglected for long. Very non-committal and evasive posting. Their vote is on UglyDuck.

UglyDuck voted Judge Dredd very early, based on Dredd suggesting that masons should claim. Duck ASKS A LOT OF QUESTIONS, BUT OFFERS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF OPEN READS/ANALYSIS. Feels like a scum posing activity in scumhunting.. Their vote is still on Judge Dredd.

Judge Dredd opened with the idea for a Masonry-claim. Got an immediate town-feel from it, but obviously the action in itself should be considered NAI (easy for scum to take the initiative and hide behind it) Posting hasn't been very informative after that, but not straight-up scummy either. Their vote is on Myloninja13, and not with much of a reason yet, I think.

Myloninja13...hasn't been able to say much ANYTHING yet. Their vote is currently still on Judge Dredd, apparently based on his suggestion for the Mason-claim.

Short version: you have 4 suspects grouped into 2 opposite sides. I'm voting one and Neyo's voting the other (me/Meyo are one side) while the other side (Ugly/Mylo) are both on me.

I hence suggest we lynching in these 4 should be more informative.

Something like this must've crossed my mind too, yes.
I'm just not sure if it's this simple, but I also think lynching in these four might yield the most information for us - in terms of associations at least.

For now I'd like to first hear from all of these slots though, because I'd like to see whether people are all forming a consensus on lynching Kop (I still feel like that lynch is a "lazy" solution) or if these four slots are willing to stick to their earlier votes.
If that is the case, I'd love to see a lynch among those slots.