Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[yessiree]

VC 2.8

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Lalendra (4) [L-2] -

Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly, Ausuka

The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino, Lalendra, Ircher

Not voting

- davesaz, Iconeum, mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-05-29 09:00:00)

[Iconeum]

And why does everyone assume killing the rb nets me results? It gets me killed or wifom'd

[mutantdevle]

we also need mutant's pick

it would be really damn nice if someone picked something other than tracker/neighborizer

Well I have some bad news for you...

[Ausuka]

[mutantdevle]

Just something to think about here:

If scum picked role cop, they probably didn't do it just so that they can find out peoples roles. The main reason scum wants role cop is to prevent themselves from being investigated by it. In this game, scum either have the cop/redirector slot or the doc/RBer slot. If either of those slots were investigated by a role cop and produced a redirector or RBer result instead of a cop or doc result then that's essentially a guilty. By having the role cop, this gives scum the freedom to lie about their role within their slot.

My question is, why would they pick mafia role cop if it was their highest position? The whole point of having the role cop is the allow them to lie about other roles they have. The only way they'd pick role cop is if they were confident they'd get a role that would perhaps need lying about. This suggests that there's scum above Lalendra in the draft order. That could only be Iconeum. In the #1 position, that's the only way they'd be entirely confident they'd get a role that needs lying about. So my theory is that Icon is actually a redirector and they chose role cop to give him the freedom to claim cop.

[Iconeum]

Nope ☺

[mutantdevle]

I just looked at my statistics of this game and scum has never chosen rolecop with their highest position. I'm sorry but I just find that there is no way mechanically that scum chose role cop with their most likely to get a PR slot unless they blatantly misunderstand how this setup works. Considering Lalendra has played this setup before, I'm inclined to doubt that.

VOTE: Iconeum

I feel like that based on our setup information Icon is far more likely to be lying about not getting a result than Janitor is specifically a role blocker. If Icon is town then that guilties Janitor. Likewise, Janitor town guilties Icon.

@Lalendra, on the 1% chance we're wrong about you, your move tonight is to check Janitor if they do not die today. To clarify, nothing will stop you being lynched, but obviously your word suddenly means a lot more when you flip (if you're town).


Tin foil theory: Role cop was chosen in order to allow both the cop and doc slots to lie about being their townier option. Hence the scum team could be all 3 of Lalendra, Icon and Janitor.

[Ausuka]

tbh let's just lynch lalendra. There is not a 1% chance she flips town here. It's more like 0%.

[mutantdevle]

Hmm, here's something to think about over not lynching Lalendra:

Most scums seem to choose UB instead of role cop. So if we do lynch Janitor, and they are the RBer, the scum may keep the role with Lalendra still alive. It's entirely possible that Lalendra is a universal backup and the probability of this is higher than her actually being the role cop.


And another point of evidence suggesting that scum has a RBer is that A LOT of scum teams have chosen both the UB/role cop slot and doc/RBed slot in the same game.


I think I prefer Lalendra actually. I'm either lynching Lalendra or Icon today - Janitor is too risky given the whole point of lynching him before confirmed scum is to try and eliminate the RBer. But since theres a chance Lalendra is a backup, this completely nullifies the point of lynching hime.

VOTE: Lalendra

[mutantdevle]

That's L-1 I think.

[Ircher]

I’ll hammer in the afternoon unless someone still wants to discuss.

[Iconeum]

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

[Mathdino]

Promise to lynch janitor tomorrow no matter what
Iconeum after that if she doesn't flip roleblocker

[Mathdino]

Taly might not be locktown, but Eddie Cane is
It's not worth checking Eddie, Eddie gets NK'd

[The Janitor]

I'm still town. And I don't think Ico checking you is that bad. If you can be conftowned you're an asset even more than now.

I'm not skitter.

Also Ircher neighborizing doesn't make him conftown right? Not that I'm scumreading him atm but still.

I think mutant's theory makes sense. It's very well possible that Ico is lying and the thing about not wanting role cop as first pick makes sense to me. Especially seeing Lalendra was high enough up on the list to have a decent chance to try and get the RB/Cop slot.

However... Lalendra couldn't have fakeclaimed UB/Rolecop while actually being Docslot with 100% safety on D1 right? Unless SIMYK is scum who actually got the slot. But I doubt SIMYK is scum and even if she is she'd have claimed one of the {Cop, Jailer, Neighborizer} slots I assume?

So I think we are for sure not lynching the Roleblocker here.

IF Lalendra flips RB though that would pretty badly incriminate SIMYK but I doubt this happens.

If there is a scum RB it's among {Me, Taly, Dave, mutant, Ausuka, Eddie} but I townread Taly/Eddie and well, I am town leaving Dave/Ausuka/maybe mutant as Roleblocker OR Iconeum is scum, correct?

As Iconeum said himself... If the Roleblocker is around, he's getting blocked (I doubt they will find the neighborizer really worth blocking) or he's getting killed if the roleblocker dies.

I'd think Iconeum flipping scum (sorta?) clears {Dave, Ausuka} and him flipping town confirms a roleblocker among those 2 or well, {Janitor, Dave, mutant Ausuka} for those sceptical of me. While flipping in {Dave, Ausuka, Mutant} doesn't necessarily get us info like that. It seems like a decent plan for tomorrow for me. I doubt he's gonna get us results

Comments? Or am I ridiculously wrong somewhere in this all?

[Mathdino]

You're still not drawing any real conclusions

[Mathdino]

Ircher can confirm that he didn't do the nightkill basically
If he's the 3rd scum, he straight up loses

[davesaz]

Would scum take rb with #1 expecting nobody else to even attempt to get cop? Then have their less useful PR (rolecop) try to get the cop (if there is one) to CC?

[Mathdino]

Scum are not mindreaders
Put yourselves in the mind of scum who have no clue what town will take

A cop down the draft will immediately think "why didn't Iconeum take cop?"
And check Iconeum

Scum is risk averse

[davesaz]

Would you (did you) think to shoot for cop from lower in the order? Has it ever been picked lower?

I agree it's risky, and that scum avoid risk. Slot 1 living to day 3-4 is usually a dead giveaway anyhow.
#inb4scumleaveslot1aliveforwifom

[Mathdino]

Yes, the #1 pick only picks cop half the time

I would heavily consider picking cop in last place

[Mathdino]

Remember that I didn't want a power role in the first place
I expected to get last place and then go for something cheeky just so I know someone has it

I personally wouldn't pick cop under Mathdino because I'd get nightkilled immediately
That's actually exactly why I took 1 shot vig

But under an alt hell yeah I would

[Mathdino]

Sidenote: I would fucking lol if janitor was just NSG
Was an initial pick
I assumed it wasn't because of the swearing

[yessiree]

VC 2.9 Final

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Lalendra (6) [Lynch] -

Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly, Ausuka, mutantdevle, Iconeum

The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino, Lalendra, Ircher

Not voting

- davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-05-29 09:00:00)

[yessiree]

Lalendra has been lynched! She was a

Town Role Cop

.

Night two has begun.

Make sure to send in your actions. Night two ends in (expired on 2018-05-22 14:00:00)