Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[davesaz]

work has been busy. Today is a end of school day for my kids.
Janitor is most likely rb.
Agree with using some discussion time. Gotta go.

[The Janitor]

Yeah I'm still town - Mathdino isn't correct by default - but I doubt y'all would believe me at this point. I don't trust dave too much still. He could be the roleblocker. But I'm guessing if it comes down to me and him, y'all are lynching me.

Let me know what you wanna know. From my perspective if Dave is the RB then Ico is town, if Dave is town Ico is scum. But Dave could say the same. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Eddie Cane]

Fine, we Lynch Janitor but we use our time wisely.

Eddie, do you care to be neighborized tonight?

doesn't make a big difference to me

[Taly]

@Janitor

1) Your major response to Maths case on you was to vote Lalendra, the second most popular wagon at the timr...

2) Instead of giving up and claiming nobody is going yo hear you out, perhaps you should state why the reasons to suspect you are wrong and try?

3) Why do you distrust Dave and what makes you believe he's the RB? You're giving borderline no substance when there is plenty to dissect.

[Iconeum]

work has been busy. Today is a end of school day for my kids.
Janitor is most likely rb.
Agree with using some discussion time. Gotta go.

How is janitor most likely rb here?

[yessiree]

VC 3.2

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

The Janitor (2)

- Ausuka, Taly

Iconeum (1)

- Ircher

Not voting

- mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, davesaz, Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Iconeum

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-06-03 13:00:00)

Note: I will be busy for the rest of the week. Pagetopper v2.0 will provide pseudo vote counts in the meanwhile

[Ausuka]

Why should we prioritize roleblocker?

Since because we KNOW that either SCUM picked the roleblocker AND we have a LIMITED pool of people whom CAN be a roleblocker in {davesaz, me, janitor, eddie, taly, mutant} and an EVEN MORE limited pool of who is LIKELY to have picked it based on NIGHT ACTIONS and by DRAFT in {davesaz, me, janitor}. Even less likely is that it is DAVESAZ, so if there is a roleblocker it is BETWEEN myself and janitor!

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor or I am LYNCHED.

I do not perceive a logical reason to lynch within a LARGER pool when we have a pool that is ENSURED to have a scum in it.

OK now I'm confused. You acknowledge that a potential RB is either you or Janitor but you don't want to lynch Janitor because you don't think he's RB? Are you just scum with Janitor?

[Ausuka]

Let’s use as much of D3 as we have.

I think we should just use as much as we need. I don't see the point in stagnating the day after we just run out of things to say.

[Ausuka]

I think mutant is town now.

[Eddie Cane]

Eddie - for the purposes of numbers

Taly - was town anyways, but scum!Taly never lets Dino be a kill so this slot is basically conf town.

Mutant - still pretty solidly town too

Ircher - not scum with Ausuka, and Ausuka townreads on meta, and has that generally awkward townie vibe. Town.

1 more town and the game is over bar a random vig/vengeful faking vt scum, cool coooool.

if we had ausuka in here the game's p much done

what do you think ircher / taly / mutant?

[mutantdevle]

This is one of several upcoming posts which is just documentation to myself rather than making any strong statements:

Based on draft number alone the scum are as follows:

Taly > Icon > Janitor >

Saske > Ausuka / Eddie >

Davesaz / mutantdevle > Ircher

.

Please completely ignore this ^^ post. I used the wrong stats.

This is the correct version:

Ircher* > SIMYK > mutant / davesaz >

Icon > Ausuka / Eddie >

The Janitor > Taly

* = very limited data.

This is based on how frequently each number has been picked in each of this setup's past games.

I love how this is the total opposite of your earlier post.

The original thing was numbers chosen most frequently to least frequently, the 2nd list is numbers chosen most frequently to least frequently

by scum

. It's interesting to see their relationship to each other.

[mutantdevle]

Are you sure this is correct? Also, Taly claimed VT/Neighborizer, so.....???

Yeah, it's correct aside from the issue you pointed out.

A tired rambling mutant is not a very attentive mutant.

[mutantdevle]

4. In 2244:

Forgive me if I don't seem too interested in forming reads this day phase because I'm going to attempt to solve this game mechanically rather than through reading into too much of what people post.

Didn't we already try that? It hasn't helped us much so far, that's for sure.

Umm, not really, I don't see how we've actively tried to solve too much mechanically so far. And just because we misinterpreted the words of the mod to think Lalendra was confirmed scum, doesn't mean solving mechanically has failed.

If we're not going to try and solve based on the mechanics of the game, then why have we mass claimed?


Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

[mutantdevle]

I don't understand his reads much. Going solely by draft st this point seems dismissive of all the other game information.

I'm not going 'solely by draft', I'm going 'mechanically'. That means taking into account draft numbers, roles, night kill analysis, vote count analysis and any other form of solid/speculative information. This means I won't be focussing on trying to get reads based on what people are saying. I will, however, take into account associations and the things people are saying when reaching conclusions of mechanical theories.

I'm going to be doing a bit of this each day, some of which I will be posting and some of which will remain as thoughts in my head. I hope to produce a

statistically

likely scum team by the end of this day.

[Ircher]

I've looked at the votecounts. I noticed that The Janitor apparently never voted D1, not even once. Anyone else find it strange?

[Ircher]

Eddie - for the purposes of numbers

Taly - was town anyways, but scum!Taly never lets Dino be a kill so this slot is basically conf town.

Mutant - still pretty solidly town too

Ircher - not scum with Ausuka, and Ausuka townreads on meta, and has that generally awkward townie vibe. Town.

1 more town and the game is over bar a random vig/vengeful faking vt scum, cool coooool.

if we had ausuka in here the game's p much done

what do you think ircher / taly / mutant?

Leaning towards town on Ausuka at the moment.

[mutantdevle]

Btw, if y'all have any faith in mechanically solving a game, I would like y'all to treat Ircher as essentially confirmed town.

In the 13 games of this that there have been, 8 people have been neighbourisers. ALL of them have been town.

Additionally, 9 other people have attempted to pick neighbouriser. 8/9 of those people were town.

In total, the neighbouriser / fruit vendor slot has appeared in 10/13 games. 24 people overall have attempted to receive this slot (10 got the slot, the other 14 tried to). Out of these 24 people, 23 of them have been town.

That means this slot has a 96% town rate. That puts Ircher as town for me.


The problem with every other neighbouriser claim is that we can't be sure if they lied. I'd argue that Almost's premature claim means it's unlikely to have been a lie, so I guess we could be treating davesaz as 96% town too.

Every other claim aside from that I'm taking with a pinch of salt. I'd expect y'all to see my own claim as a pinch of salt as well, though obviously from my perspective my role pick is irrelevant to my view of my alignment.

[Eddie Cane]

I don't think statistic A (town are always neighbourizer) proves point B (Irhcer is conf town and Dave is almost conf town)

but

I agree Ircher is solid town anyways so I don't really care enough to argue

[Ircher]

Mutantdevle ISO:

1. In 231:

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

So far, I've been neighborizing my townreads (who I didn't think were going to be killed), but I think I am going to neighborize either you or Eddie next. Any particular reason you want to be neighborized?

2. In 240:

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

Remind me, why was this even a question at the time?

3. In 372:

It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.

Regardless if this is truly your thought process, I still think that your post (and this thought process) has zero relevance to the game at hand, but meh.......

4. In 373:

then top that with night kills,

Okay, I feel like the N2 kill was more or less obvious, so what are your thoughts on the N1 kill on The Worst? Do you think they got lucky in killing a PR, or do you think they found some PR crumb on The Worst?

5. In 387:

This is probably a good thing.

(In response to my 346): Elaborate.

6. In 415:

Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that.

I'm just going to ask you something: how can you read a person based on what they say about the setup (aside from glaring inconsistencies and misleading information)? If anything, scum have an advantage (3 to 1) in terms of knowing setup information, and even without that advantage, practically anyone who knows enough about the setup could post information about the setup, regardless of alignment. That is why I read people by their reads, and it is why I focus on people having reads and explaining the thought process behind those reads.

7. In 432:

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.
I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

Anti-town post, but not necessarily scum-motivated.

8. In 468:

I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.

I would love if you really explained even one of your reads on the currently alive people (that doesn't boil down to basically being 100% setup speculation, which while that is fine in some cases, it doesn't help me discern your alignment.)

9. In 563:

The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

How do I determine your alignment then? How can I trust your setup spec if I cannot trust your alignment? You have to scumhunt and make your reads known for me to really be able to read you.

10. In 564:

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

Name some of those other ways to judge people besides their reads and their meta.

Be specific.

11. In 794:

If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.

Maybe you already answered this (today, May 23) and I already forgot, but what exactly is your read on Ausuka again?

12. In 980:

I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.

Unless I'm mistaken, you are still voting me at this time... I can't remember any other wagon you pushed, so I'm not sure what you are stating here...

13. In 1068:

There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...

This is such a crappy thing to rely on.

Yeah, this is kinda a concern actually. What are the chances that scum have the N3 vig and fakeclaimed? In that case, we are in Mylo right now. But if no one has the N3 vig/vengeful slot (cuz Vengeful isn't gonna claim due to autolynch), no lynching would be the wrong move... Any thoughts since you seem to be the remaining expert on the setup?

14. In 1211:

Town:
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Town lean:
Iconeum

(Note: portions of this readslist were excluded). Please explain these two reads if they are still relevant.

15. In 2209:

since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

I don't see how that makes a difference? It seemed pretty reasonable to assume that Lalendra wasn't lying about their role, and I still think the simplest explanation is Iconeum is scum.

16. In 2238:

We are in perpetual MYLO

Not strictly true, but if we are lynching today, we need to lynch someone that we think have a 90% chance of flipping scum. We are either in MyLo today or 1 mislynch away from LyLo. I would assume the latter except the fact that scum may gambit with fakeclaiming...

17. In 2287:

Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

I'm just saying we need to factor in reads as well...

Other Notes:
1. With the exception of 240, the first 17 or so posts of the ISO deal almost exclusively with setup spec. That is a bit excessive in my opinion.

Conclusions: To be quite honest, I really think I am leaning towards town here despite the "methodology-related" stuff that I seriously disagree with. Basically, I don't think I want to lynch this slot today.

Addendum @Mutant: What do you think the chances are that a scum vengeful fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a scum N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a town N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT AND would kill if our lynch today flips town? Do you think it is more likely that we are currently in MyLo (with a N3 vig that fakeclaimed or a vengeful that fakeclaimed) or 1 mislynch away from LyLo? Do you think it is better for us to No Lynch on the off-chance that we are in MyLo or to lynch under the hopes that our target is scum, or at least, we aren't in MyLo?

[Ircher]

Almost50/Davesaz ISO:

1. In 74:

But let's

assume (for the sake of argument

) that Beefster is town here. So? Why is a wagon on him bad? Wagons are good for getting reads, right?

(I wonder why the "Assume for the sake of argument" is underlined...)

2. In 139:

FTR, Mathdino should have been tied with The Janitor, but I decided he is likely town because of my role (he is above me in the draft, and I think I know what he would pick/have his team pick if he was scum), and that's all I am willing to say for now.

I am curious as to what this guess of what scum!Math would've picked would've been. (Like, I could see a way that it could really help us atm, but oh well...)

3. In 263:

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and [cares] to argue back with facts.

(Yeah, Mutant provided IoA, so I still don't see how this is indicative of Mutant's alignment.)

4. In 490, Almost50:
1. "Let's ruin this game because I'm playing with a bunch of nutters." -->

??? This seems unprompted.

2. "I went for Neighborizer. I don't think Scum!Dino would go for that over most any other combination (Vengeful is a powerful tool for scum. RB and/or JK, or maybe RB+Tracker/Role Cop.. etc)." -->

Can anyone interpret what Almost50 is saying about Mathdino's alignment based on the draft and his pick? Because I cannot understand their point here.

3. "And I was just trying the bloody infamous A50 gambit, so that is why I'm being iiretated by being overly SR, and especially so by the MATHDINO" -->

Your typical AtE, but it seems believable?

5. In 492:

VOTE: A50

Meh, not sure what to make of this self-vote. Original inclination was town, but I am not sure that applies any longer.

6. In 508:

Now which of the players before me on the draft would take that as town? (because I'm assuming Scum!You wouldn't, so if you are scum then it must've fell in the hands of the town still).

I think this makes a little more sense.

7. In 556:

My bright moment: Iconeum+the worst+Lalendra for the scum team.

VOTE: Iconeum

(Or not... Iconeum perhaps but the rest has flipped town by this point...)

8. In 594:

Good, it wasn't a gambit.

Ummm..... I'm lazy, but context???

9. In 694:

I disliked it, but it was enough to accurately read the alignment I'd be replacing into.

I kinda buy this as Davesaz saying he read Almost50 as town, and he was correct in that. (Or the exact opposite, but I don't think (?) that Davesaz would make this comment if they're expectations didn't meet reality.)

10. In 1281:

@Eddie -- the reads question? That's easy enough to find but I don't mind restating.
Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.
Long name with lots of complicated ascii art and random words in CAPS looks town.

So, in other words, with the exception of SIMYK (i.e.: long name), your reads haven't changed at all since 596? That seems strange...

11. In 1489:

I don't like the stall at all.
Iso'd Lovebird, can't find any evidence of town there.
VOTE: Lovebird
That's L-1

I don't like this post...

12. In 2131:

Hammer intent.
Do we even need mutant's info?

I don't like this post either....

13. In 2275:

Janitor is most likely rb.

You are presuming that there is a roleblocker, which we still don't know for sure....

Other Notes:
1. Compare Civilization Almost50 (Town) and White Flag Almost50 (Scum). Which do you think Almost50 resembles more closely this game? I am leaning towards the former.
2. I know Davesaz was sick earlier in the game, but are they always this brief? Do they always seem to be in a perpetual state of catching up?

Conclusions: Almost50 read primarily as town to me. Davesaz read primarily as scum to me with the notable exception of 694 which felt like it came from town. Overall, I think I am going to go with more likely town than scum here with the caveat that I'm not at all confident in this read.

[Ircher]

Ausuka ISO:

1. In 433:

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Honestly, I like this. While it may not be good for her reads accuracy on me (no longer 100%!), I just think that scum!Ausuka would be more likely to at least stay on the wagon and judge later versus get off the wagon and reevaluate.

2. In 568:
1. "I unvoted there because the post was massive and I felt like I needed to evaluate it before pushing further w/ pushing him. Ircher's posts aren't that bad but, like, he just doesn't give out the same obvtown feeling he usually does when he's town, you know?" -->

Fair enough and seems town-motivated... Or at least not scum-motivated.

2. "But I don't think I want to lynch Ircher yet because I think I can sort him with 99% accuracy later, and the way he's working through the thread and making notes is pretty towny." -->

Okay...

3. "although if I'm right, and you're scum here, that makes a lot of sense, because you already know what Ircher's alignment, and you're only worried about perception of you, which is why you CTRL+F'd the post to search for your name, and nothing else." -->

Interesting perspective; I kinda agree with it.

4. "I UNVOTED ircher because I NO LONGER feel that his posts make him CAUGHT SCUM so I would prefer some more TIME to EVALUATE him ^_^" -->

This is still consistent with what Ausuka has previously stated.

5. "yeah, maybe Ircher is just scum here." -->

This seems a bit inconsistent, but given that this post covers several posts, it isn't a glaring inconsistency.

6. "yeah... I still think beefster is scum here. maybe beef/ircher/lalendra? does that work as a team?" -->

Out of curiosity, was this just a conjecture based on individual reads, or are you factoring associatives in as well? (Ofc, at least I know that this team is all town...)

7. "Ircher's 520 makes me think he might actually be town here; I like the readslist. but I just feel like something important is missing here with his play which makes him locktown in most of the towngames we play together." -->

I gotta be honest, I'm not totally sure what makes you towntell me, but I guess that's a good thing for you!

3. In 645:

meh, I don't really see the need to stop wagoning people to get more information. Like, we get info no matter what happens, and I doubt it will lead to a stall.

Something feels off about this post...

4. In 1021:

that said you're probably going to lynch him anyway so do whatever

I am not nearly as good at reading Ausuka as they are at reading me, but unless I am mistaken, I believe I remember you generally being more proactive in terms of defending your townread of me in other games? Is it because you find me much harder to read this game that is keeping you somewhat silent?

5. In 1027:

i'm getting vigged anyway and once I get vigged nobody will care about my reads so i'm not inclined to spend a lot of time and effort detailing them

Quoted this for the lolz more than anything.

6. In 1852:

Extra-Special Townbloc of Happy Friends

Ausuka

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKimesis, Taly
Candidates For Promotion

the worst, Mathdino

,

Ircher

, davesaz, Eddie Cane
Watchlist For Meaniness
The Janitor, Iconeum
Wanted for Bullying and General Sad Crimes
mutantdevle,

Myloninja13, Lalendra

(?)

I don't think these reads are that bad actually. (Note: I color-coded them based on the flips with myself in blue and Ausuka in orange.) (What I really mean is that I think that the unflipped people in the lower 2 tiers have a high likelihood of scum.)

7. In 1916:

I'm pretty willing to lynch Jan but I think it's strictly suboptimal to keep Lal “close to conftown“ endra alive with a potential tracker or watcher in the game.

I really don't understand this... What does Lalendra being a role cop have to do with Tracker/Watcher? (

Also, The Worst flipped as Jailkeeper which is part of the Tracker slot, so ???

Oh wait, this is still D1... Your "I'm alive" post made me think this was D2...

Nevermind, this post was made D2...)

8. In 2036:

I don't think there's a significant difference between ircher's play as a PR and a VT. To be fair I've only seen him as a Universal Backup but I'm pretty sure he'd play that the same way as any other PR.

Just noting that while I do tend to be just as noticable as a PR as a VT, I do play some roles more carefully. Neither neighborizer nor Universal Backup qualify in that respect.

9. In 2158:

there is no off-chance that Lalendra isn't scum and we shouldn't be engaging with the possibility that she is. There has been no mention of any sort of mod error, for starters (because there wasn't one.)

Just going to note that the mod decided that they weren't gonna comment on their earlier comment for the time being (probably a good thing on the moderation side, but still.... It DID impact the game in a MAJOR way...)

Other Notes:
1. Day 1 Voting Pattern:
Ausuka Voted: Beefster (157) -->

Ircher

(419) --> (Null) (433) -->

Lalendra (571) --> Lovebird (589) --> Lalendra (718) --> Lovebird (1016) --> Lalendra (1198) --> Lovebird (1445) --> Lalendra (1692) --> Lovebird (1815)

Like seriously though, it is like you are bipolar; one post you are voting Lovebird, the next Lalendra, and so forth... I don't necessarily think it is scummy, but it is certainly weird...

Conclusions: Uh.... Not really sure what to say... I guess overall, I am reading this ISO as more town than scum, but still feels like it is **really** missing something.

(Note that I already got some responses from Ausuka in our neighborhood PT.)

[Ircher]

Iconeum ISO:

1. In 164:
"1) wanted to deny scum a free first pick" -->

Okay, but you ended up with first pick, so..........

"2) would not be unhappy being VT" -->

Do you seriously think that a bunch of people are going to be picking 1 as their draft number? Like, I can see MAYBE 1 scum doing it and MAYBE 1 OTHER townie (i.e.: someone besides you) choosing it, but I think the chances of such are extremely low... Perhaps Mutant with his setup knowledge can determine the frequency at which the number one is picked in the draft....

"3) if i got the pick, i put scum in a bad situation because I either end up as lynchbait or am completely wrong in my reads so they want to leave me alive to endgame. having the first pick at least makes them considering killing me early just because of the (potentially strong) power." -->

This is pretty much an obvious PR soft, but considering they had first pick anyway, it was a given they are a PR. Now, why isn't the town cop dead yet? Scum knows there is no doctor (by either having or not having the roleblocker) and the jailkeeper is dead... Like, if you are still alive in LyLo regardless if we lynch the roleblocker, you should get autolynched.

2. In 202:

I'm not sure u are scum for it. It's a very good place to start though.

Compare this with Iconeum's writing in 198: "Only scum would have the motivation to play like that". See the discrepancy?

3. In 666:

Funny you mention Ausuka, because I just reread that ISO and it's much worse then i thought it was. The Ircher scumread, then voting and instantly unvoting was weird. Then the read turned so quikly into a semi-townread, followed by flip-flopping votes on Lalendra and Lovebird. Upgrading to a scumlean on Ausuka

Something doesn't feel right about this post...

4. In 1071:

why are you so focused on lalendra's low content posting?

Why not? (Man, I wish Lalendra was scum.... We would be much better off for associative tells if that had been the flip...)

5. In 1418:

High in drafts / lolreason.

As you will see after this game, town will choose high as well (cough).

(I added the underlining.) Wait, is this a scum claim? (I guess he could be referring to himself but I digress...)

6. In 1685:

and now I come back with an effort post/case which is pretty damn good if i say so myself (better scumcontent then EITHER wagon right now) and I'm being scumread for it.

LAMIST!

7. In 2113:

I checked math and got no result

Explain what went into this decision...

8. In 2186:

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

This hammer was really bad.

Also, Janitor was *clearly* the better lynch to make.

Other Notes:
1. Large initial focus on The Janitor and his posts.
2. Midway through Day 1 when it became evident that The Janitor was not going to be lynched, Iconeum switched gears and started heavily pursuing Lovebird.

Conclusion: Not really sure about this slot. I still think the setup points moreso to this slot being scum, but from a reads standpoint, I would say I am about neutral on this slot.

[Ircher]

-----------------------------------------------
The Janitor:

1. In 114:

I asked you a question about something that bothers me. Seems like part of a game to me honestly.

@SIMYK
The game is barely underway so I'm not really having a read on anyone. Sure scum could interact a lot but I'd imagine they're more comfortable in the shadows than here. But that again is also wifom-y which is why I'm slow in forming reads.

This post bothers me, but I cannot figure out why at the moment...

2. 161 -->

The Janitor's continued focus on one or two negligent things really bothers me. I am 100% certain there is more stuff The Janitor could be commenting on...

3. In 200:

I just let my thoughts flow on matters that stand out to me. How does that make me scum immediately? What you could do is weigh in on the matter itself. And I'm pretty busy replying to stuff I can form opinions about right now

This post feels too artificial to me; in some ways, it is consistent with The Janitor's previous posts, but in other ways, it just feels like it is trying to give that town aura too much.

4. In 406:
1. "Hmm 218 seems good to me, although I haven't played with you before Taly, not on this account. Good points made." -->

Anyone could make this kind of statement.

2. "Why me then? Any opinions on what I posted? You didn't mention them, did you find my posts bad like the other people on my wagon?" -->

I think people are more worried about what you are not posting versus what you are posting.

3. "Don't think setup spec is that bad in itself but yes I do think it's mostly a bunch of wifom. But Math does it more I guess... still no big fan." -->

Another thing pretty much anyone can say; aka, useless information.

Like, my problem with this post in general can basically be summed as being an IoA post (Information over Analysis).

5. In 603:
1. "idk but isn't this more a case of "suck it up"? Why would town just plainly want to ignore someone who *can be* town? Sure he's scummy but nothing's confirmed yet I'd think." -->

Another stance that pretty much anyone can take more or less.

2. "On one hand it's very well possible scum!Irch is fighting an uphill battle wanting to look townie but on the other hand it might just as well be town!Ircher trying to prove himself." -->

Are you going to take a stance on anything?

3. "Well then is this really a weak argument when it's actually possible" -->

Balancing Possibilities Versus Probabilities (I hope I got that right...)

6. In 605:

Taly and Aukuka seem town. A50 scumlean. Math somewhat of a scumlean. Duckie seems town too. Yessiree scumlean. SIMYK townlean.

How can you scumread the mod? (I know this has been brought up before, I'm just reiterating this for emphasis.) Like, if it weren't for that, I would be semi-okay with this post; however, that makes it look like you just chose random people to townread and scumread.

7. In 1009:

Why would the unofficial town leader argue for a policy vig? Who knows some of his reads may be right.

I don't think I even understand what you are stating here?

8. In 1179:

It ain't impossible... But certain things don't sit well with me. This calls for an ISO read/skim sometime soon.

Weren't you townreading me earlier...? (Or were you fence-sitting again?)

9. In 1189:

I mean that mislynchable self thing is a wet dream for scum to have in a signature. Obviously Lalendra isn't scum because of it but scum would love to fall back on that.

And what purpose is this post supposed to serve?

10. In 1310:

My reads are duck, Taly, SIMYK, mutant town and lalendra and lovebird I find scummy. Have concerns with Dino that I voiced. Ircher is also wacky but lovebird and LAL are less active atm. Ausuka light suspicion

I haven't seen you say much about Lovebird or Lalendra....

11. In 1614:

Neutral Mathdino (Ausuka), Ico, Ircher**
Scumlean (Ausuka), dave*, Lalendra, Mylo, Bird

Possible Ausuka/Janitor associatives here? Like, how can Ausuka be in two places at once? Either you scumread them or you don't scumread them; I don't see what could have you so split... Especially when you don't say much about them...

12. In 2043:

Interesting. I'm a VT.

What exactly was "interesting" about the roles remaining? This post doesn't feel authentic tbqh.

13. 2189 -->

I feel the post has strong associatives with SIMYK. Let's start with the bottom: he lists everyone EXCEPT SIMYK (and Eddie) who very well could also be a roleblocker in the lynch pool if Iconeum flips town. Note that Janitor __also__ keeps SIMYK out of the possible scum roleblockers a little above as well--this isn't just a glaring oversight on Janitor's part because a little above, Janitor is basically saying he townreads SIMYK. And his townread thing really reads as if SIMYK is his scum partner.

Conclusion: Too much IoA and IIoA. He occassionally gives reads, but they don't seem like reads he feels strongly in. His last post suggests possible ties with SIMYK. Perhaps most importantly, I am leaning more towards scum after reading his ISO than I was beforehand.

[Ircher]

Okay, this last thing is too important for a page bottom.

[Ircher]

So I am going to bump the thread.