Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Ircher]

Key:

Mod-confirmed town

Mod-confirmed mafia

Myself

VC 1.4
The Janitor (5) -

Mathdino

, Almost50 (Davesaz), Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja)

, mutantdevle
Almost50 (2) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Brassherald (Eddie)
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird, the worst

Beefster

(1) - Ausuka

Lovebird

(1) -

Ircher

Iconeum (1) - Taly

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor

Only two town people have flipped on the Janitor's wagon. Of the remaining three, I find all of them suspect.

VC 1.8
The Janitor (3) - Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja)

,

Ircher

Ircher

(3) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Mathdino

, mutantdevle

Lalendra

(3) - Ausuka,

the worst

, Taly
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, brassherald (Eddie)
Iconeum (1) - Almost50 (Davesaz)

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor

It would be quite interesting if there is one scum on each of the three major wagons here...

VC 1.12

Lalendra

(5) -

the worst

, Taly,

Ircher

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka

Ircher

(2) -

Mathdino

, mutantdevle
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, Eddie Cane
The Janitor (1) - Iconeum
Iconeum (1) - davesaz

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor,

Myloninja13

Is it interesting that of 3 not voting, Janitor is the only one left right now? Not sure what to make of this though; it would've been nice to have a scumflip by now....

VC 1.14

Ircher

(3) - , mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

The Janitor (1) - Eddie Cane

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor,

Myloninja13, Mathdino

What the heck is this? Now we have 3 town not voting...

VC 1.15

Ircher

(5) - mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

, Eddie Cane,

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting - The Janitor,

Myloninja13, Mathdino

I'm starting to notice something... But I'm gonna wait before sharing...

VC 1.16

Lalendra

(5) - Taly,

Ircher

,

the worst, Myloninja13

, Ausuka

Ircher

(3) - mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino

, Eddie Cane, davesaz

Lovebird

(1) - Iconeum
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting - The Janitor

I would like to think that the wagon composition on Lalendra in this VC is all-town. I could at least say (knowing my own alignment) that it seems to be a town-driven wagon.

VC 1.20

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Eddie Cane, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Taly,

Lalendra

, mutantdevle, Ausuka

Lalendra

(5) -

Ircher

,

Myloninja13, Lovebird

, Iconeum,

the worst

The Janitor (2) -

Mathdino

, davesaz

Not voting - The Janitor

Anyone notice anything of worth here? (Serious question--I am not sure what to make of it except for one glaring issue that I will get to....)

VC 1.24
Ausuka (5) -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino

, Eddie Cane,

Myloninja13

Lovebird

(4) - Taly,

Lalendra

, mutantdevle, davesaz

Lalendra

(2) -

the worst

, Ausuka
davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting - The Janitor, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

I am pretty sure the Ausuka wagon here is all-town. I can't say the same for Lovebird.

VC 1.25
Ausuka (6) [L-2] -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra

, mutantdevle

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting - The Janitor

Look at Iconeum all by himself! If there is scum on the Ausuka wagon, it is quite obviously mutant. What are the chances that the majority of scum are on the Lovebird wagon? What are the chances that the majority of scum are off the two main wagons? (This is a question to everyone; I want serious answers.)

VC 1.26 (LYNCH)

Lovebird

(8) [Lynch] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

, Iconeum,

Ircher

Ausuka (5) -

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra

, mutantdevle

Not voting - The Janitor

Good, everyone is voting one of the two main wagons..... Oh wait,

The Janitor isn't voting anyone

. And on closer inspection,

The Janitor never voted, NOT EVEN ONCE, on Day 1

(or if he did, he didn't stay on anyone long enough for the mod to record it!)

. So what does that suggest? Scum without an opinion? Town without an opinion? Which one is more likely?

VC 2.1
The Janitor (4) -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

Lalendra

(2) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor

Not voting - Taly, davesaz, Iconeum,

Ircher

, mutantdevle

Nothing really interesting here... The Janitor is finally voting someone.

VC 2.6
The Janitor (5) [L-1] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum, mutantdevle

Just sayin', the Janitor wagon appears mainly if not all town. Lalendra? Not so much...

VC 2.7
The Janitor (4) [L-2] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka,

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum, mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

VC 2.9 (LYNCH)

Lalendra

(6) [Lynch] - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly, Ausuka, mutantdevle, Iconeum
The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino, Lalendra

,

Ircher

Not voting - davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Just saying, The Janitor wagon was the leading wagon all day right up until the hammer where in like no time, Lalendra suddenly became the lynch instead. While my D1 hammer may have been bad, Iconeum's D2 hammer could be considered flat out scum-motivated. There definitely wasn't need for that, esp. since Iconeum didn't bother to make their intentions known. Also, not a single flipped town player is on Lalendra whereas all 3 (if you include me, which you should!) of the players on The Janitor are town.

[yessiree]

^{beep boop}

This spot is reserved for a vote count!

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[Ircher]

Living people that I haven't ISO'd (yet): Myself (obviously), Brassherald/Eddie Cane, Taly, and SIMYK.

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%)

Confirmed Neighborizer

- Role PM; Also, as long as I continue to successfully neighborize people, I can prove that I am not scum.

Dead:

1. Lovebird - Vanilla Townie
2. The Worst - Town Jailkeeper
3. Myloninja13 - Vanilla Townie
4. Lalendra - Town Rolecop
5. Mathdino - Town 1-Shot Vigilante

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.
Pedit: Lol!

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+55%) - At first, I felt that this slot was scum, and that continued to be my sentiment as of 931. His latter posts are better. For instance, 1192 is fairly good, and it clarifies his earlier voting reasons. 1576 is another good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572 that the Lovebird towncase was not really good. Another thing that makes me lean town here is the holistic scumhunting idea: I would be a bit surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583 (though I wouldn't rule it out).

Ausuka

(+44%) - In general, her posts have been more town than they have been scum, but I feel like something is really off about this slot tbqh.

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+40%) - There is like a 99% chance that there is at least 1 scum in {SIMYK, Janitor, and Iconeum}. (I'm getting really paranoid about this slot though... Actually, I'm getting extremely paranoid about this slot...)

Mutantdevle

(+36%) - Despite our differences in philosophies, something really says to me that Mutant is more likely town here, so I'll go with that for now.

Almost50

davesaz

(+32%) - Man, sometimes I really hate reading slots that get replaced. Let me summarize my read here: Almost50 read mostly as town whereas Davesaz read mostly as scum with the notable exception of 694. Despite that, I think I value the Almost50 read moreso, and thus I lean towards town here, albeit with a low level of confidence.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Iconeum

(-74%)

Confirmed Cop

- His posting has been lackluster at best. Furthermore, given how the claims are, it is practically guaranteed that at least one of {SIMYK, Iconeum, Janitor} are scum. I mean, Mutant, Davesaz, Ausuka, or Eddie could be lying, but given their draft potentials, it is highly unlikely. Why do I think Iconeum is the most likely? Because Occam's Razor actually suggests that there is no roleblocker; thus, Iconeum is lying about his result. Also, copping Mathdino was a horrible night action.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-79%) - His posting has not been very good, and PoE suggests he is scum. Also, I need to put more effort in and not just townread people for longish posts;

none

of Janitor's posts have come close to being good on second inspection. His last post (2189) points to ties with SIMYK. Janitor sticks out like a sore thumb when one looks at the D1 VCs; apparently, he *NEVER* voted anyone D1.

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Role Claims, Draft Numbers, and Draft Order:
1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer
10: Almost50/Davesaz (8) - VT, Neighborizer

Claim is consistent with play.

11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer
12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

Night 1 Actions:
Iconeum copped Mathdino --> Failed, No result
I neighborized Taly --> Successful
Mathdino vigged Myloninja --> Successful
The Worst jailed ??? --> ???
Mafia killed The Worst --> Successful
Lalendra role-copped Iconeum --> Successful, "Cop"

Night 2 Actions:
I neighborized Ausuka --> Successful
Mafia killed Mathdino --> Successful
Iconeum copped SIMYK --> Failed, No result

[Ircher]

Just noting that despite my reads list, if I were a 3-shot vigilante that could shoot all three shots at once, I would shoot Janitor, Iconeum and SIMYK as I feel like that is the most likely scum team at the moment.

[Ircher]

Taly ISO:

1. In 218:
1. "I pre-planned the number I was going to send to the Mod BEFORE the full playerlist even signed up." -->

Not sure what to make of this. In some ways, I think scum, in others, I think town.

2. In 528:
1. "My Ircher Townread Is Multi-Faceted Given His Recent Posts- [...]" -->

I like this part, and that is not just because it is on me (though that does make it stand out more to me.

2. "What's with the dichotomy here? Are you saying they both can't be scum together or town together? Why?" -->

This was in response to Mutant's 453. I feel this part of the post is a bit on the nitpickey side, but not necessarily a scum action.

3. "UNVOTE: I'm too... not-opinionated... I'm fixing that shit ASAP." -->

Umm... What happened to your Iconeum read? What happened to the other things you mentioned in the post? Why do you feel the need to unvote at this point?

3. In 539:
1. "How do you deduce percentages of someone being scum FROM RANDOMIZED NUMBERS?" -->

(To be fair, they aren't truly random because the human mind is actually really bad at coming up with truly random numbers.)

2. "Simplying scumhunting as complete luck is a DIRECT simplification of a subjective game." -->

(I mean, it is true in a way. That is why games are generally balanced based on their EV, because scumhunting for most players doesn't raise the likelihood of lynching scum that much.)

3. "Right now, you're coming to me based off semantics and not off the idea of trying to UNDERSTAND something in a subjective realm where we can communicate our ideas." -->

Feels over the top, but not sure how to read this.

4. "And instead of trying to UNDERSTAND my townread, you're minimizing MY OPINION." -->

Also feels like an unwarranted overreaction.

5. "Are you genuinely looking at other people to find more general confidence in your reads, or are you unsure of Almost50? I don't understand your thought process here." -->

I like this part of the post.

6. "Or just keep engaging with me like this and hopefully I don't rip my hair out." -->

I think you were taking the game too personally...

4. In 887:
1. "111 was a post that wanted to avoid any WIFOM generated by pure setup spec, and I don't agree with SIMYK's assessment that Janitor hasn't taken any stances" -->

I disagree, his early posts are basically him saying 'I don't scumread SIMYK for this, but I don't townread them for this either.' That's just my opinion, and maybe you think the same at this point in time versus back then.

2. "Good first impression, aware of the gamestate; I'd like to see their thoughts upon them catching up." -->

(In response to Mylo's 625): ??? I don't see that as alignment-indicative really?

5. In 1100:

Was that hammer?

Not sure what to make of this reaction... Anyone else have any thoughts here? (This was in response to my wagon, and I believe it was The Worst who voted me again.)

6. In 1201:
1. "((Note: Also, I'm curious about the townreads on me, I feel like a lot of people have either stated a townread or haven't even tried to sort out their 'NULL' read on me, and I'm hoping that's not an excuse to ignore my questions and answers, because that's happened...))" -->

Honestly, it probably is. I highly doubt most of us take a long time trying to fact-check everything you state in one of your walls. It's not that all of us don't read your posts, it is just that we likely don't give it the kind of attention we ought to.

2. "This is partially why I have a scumread on them; there's plenty of stances in this game that have already been made, what's towny about not pushing for their own?" -->

You haven't been proactive really in pushing an Iconeum scumread... Any particular reasons why?

7. 1302 -->

Admittedly, I more or less read the Conclusions part because TL;DR basically... Those reads are... interesting, I must say...

8. In 1601:
1. "Meta reads, while they can be accurate, are extremely subjective, very fluid, and could easily be faked. That's why I'm not very convinced of Lovebird-town with the stated reasons." -->

I use meta reads more for determining personality and playstyle versus determining 'This is scum' or 'This is town'. Used that way, meta is really important, and that was basically what was being stated for Lovebird (or at least what I was stating about Lovebird back then).

2. "Holistic reading in 1583 puts the game greatly in perspective on how reads have formed and what they mean; but it's only useful when the information is used to make a forward-thinking and structured decisions from the townbloc, specifically early-game when there's no flips to go off of." -->

Oh, you just made me think of something...

Hey @Eddie, has the flips done anything that would make you reconsider your Day 1 holistic scumhunting analysis?

9. 1616 -->

Not sure what to make of this defense of The Janitor. Like, I'm sure it has some merit (though I must admit that I didn't do much fact checking, so yeah...), but I can't tell if this scum!Taly white-knighting scum!Janitor or town!Taly legitimately townread Janitor (regardless of The Janitor's alignment). Anyone else have any thoughts?

10. In 1992:
1. "I'm unhappy about being wrong over Lovebird. " -->

Feels a bit on the feigned side tbh. Oh wait, this is a Day 2 post, but Idk; something still feels off about this post.

11. In 1997:

So Mutant is confirmed scum solely based off not really being present or providing an opinion? What do you think about Lalendra, then?

Gonna clarify here that I didn't mean to imply that I thought Mutant was conf!scum (I didn't though I scumread him); that part was about what people were saying about Lalendra being conf!scum and wondering whether it may be better to just lynch the "conf!scum" over someone else.[/i]

12. In 2058:

Fuck I'm VLA and I'm more active than half of the playerlist

Not sure what to make of this...

13. In 2229:

We should've listened to Math...

Not sure what to make of this either...

Conclusions: This came out as more of a "I'm not really sure what to make of this slot tbh" read than anything, so I think I'll just stick with town!Taly for now and trust my initial feelings on this slot. Unlike SIMYK, I don't really see a good reason to be paranoid of this slot at the moment.

(This does place Taly lower in my readslist though; just under Eddie...)

[yessiree]

^{beep boop}

This spot is reserved for a vote count!

This post was made by a bot. Check here for more info.

Spoiler: votes for your lazy mod

2272 Taly VOTE: The Janitor
2259 Ircher VOTE: Iconeum
2202 Ausuka VOTE: The Janitor

[Ircher]

Is it just me, or is the pagetopper bot broken?

[mutantdevle]

Concerning Ircher's ISO post of me:

Spoiler: Replies in blue:

Mutantdevle ISO:

1. In 231:

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

So far, I've been neighborizing my townreads (who I didn't think were going to be killed), but I think I am going to neighborize either you or Eddie next. Any particular reason you want to be neighborized?#

My reasons for wanting to be neighbourised are no longer applicable given the state of the game, so please ignore my request to be neighbourised. The reason I wanted to be neighbourised though is the same reason I planned to pick neighbouriser regardless of my draft order; my game plan was to use my meta-knowledge of this setup to help PRs decide how to use their night actions. For example, last time I played this game I was able to correctly predict a mafia night kill using my meta and prevent it as the doctor. Sadly, being new to the game I had given away my role so died the same night since they used a vig kill. I figured that I'd be able to have a greater impact by advising multiple PRs than being a main 1 myself. As a neighbour, I wouldn't need to know the identity of each PR, only know that the neighbouriser has contact with such PRs and hence able to pass on my information. If I was to discover my information was not being passed on or was being outguessed, that would help to identify the neighbouriser as scum. Obviously, with everyone's roles being outed, such game plan is redundant.

2. In 240:

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

Remind me, why was this even a question at the time?

3. In 372:

It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.

Regardless if this is truly your thought process, I still think that your post (and this thought process) has zero relevance to the game at hand, but meh.......

It was important to me as it would allow me to collect more data. The more data I have of past games the more confidence I can place in it. For example, the statistic that 100% of the people who have chosen the number 11 in the past have been scum hardly means anything when you take into account the number has only ever been chosen once. On the other hand, I'm confident in declaring your role as town given I have a data set of size 24 backing up a high likelihood you are. The more data I have, the more accurately I can say "the games follow this pattern".

4. In 373:

then top that with night kills,

Okay, I feel like the N2 kill was more or less obvious, so what are your thoughts on the N1 kill on The Worst? Do you think they got lucky in killing a PR, or do you think they found some PR crumb on The Worst?

I'm yet to look too much into NK analysis yet and I'll update you more on that when I get to it. But currently, I'm thinking it was probably luck. I'll look for crumbs later though. If we can determine the reason he was killed, we can determine whether his reads are relevant.

5. In 387:

This is probably a good thing.

(In response to my 346): Elaborate.

My reads are shit. Just straight up bad. Random lynching can be more accurate than them. Hence, if I'm not pushing my reads it's probably a good thing because I'm capable of being persuasive. Last time I played this setup I got the jailkeeper mislynched essentially for not answering one of my questions. I'm probably more useful working on the mechanical side of game solving.

6. In 415:

Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that.

I'm just going to ask you something: how can you read a person based on what they say about the setup (aside from glaring inconsistencies and misleading information)? If anything, scum have an advantage (3 to 1) in terms of knowing setup information, and even without that advantage, practically anyone who knows enough about the setup could post information about the setup, regardless of alignment. That is why I read people by their reads, and it is why I focus on people having reads and explaining the thought process behind those reads.

Honestly, I'm not bothered about making people town read me at the moment as long as they aren't trying to lynch me. You can trust what I say about the setup when the scum kill me for it. The longer I'm alive, the more damage I'm going to do to scum. So they must choose whether to kill me and give my words strength or keep me alive at the risk of me figuring them out.

7. In 432:

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.
I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

Anti-town post, but not necessarily scum-motivated.

8. In 468:

I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.

I would love if you really explained even one of your reads on the currently alive people (that doesn't boil down to basically being 100% setup speculation, which while that is fine in some cases, it doesn't help me discern your alignment.)

Once I'm done setup specing, I will tie it to actions in game as my 'mutantcase' in order to fully convince people of where I'm coming from. But like I say, I don't care for you discerning my alignment. I'm confident you're town and that's all I need from you.

9. In 563:

The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

How do I determine your alignment then? How can I trust your setup spec if I cannot trust your alignment? You have to scumhunt and make your reads known for me to really be able to read you.

You can trust my words when I flip. If I don't get night killed sometime soon, you probably would have been instead. Ignoring that, you can get a read on me when I start pushing my conclusions.

10. In 564:

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

Name some of those other ways to judge people besides their reads and their meta.

Be specific.

How they react to pressure, their position on a wagon, their associations to others (in more than just a reads way), how they use their night actions, who has what read on them. Of course their own reads and meta play into it. But that's not exclusively the way to read someone.

Though, I don't know why you're asking me, I've never been too good at spotting 'tells'.

11. In 794:

If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.

Maybe you already answered this (today, May 23) and I already forgot, but what exactly is your read on Ausuka again?

Still gut scum, but like I say, not focussing on reads today. I want to focus on setup spec.

12. In 980:

I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.

Unless I'm mistaken, you are still voting me at this time... I can't remember any other wagon you pushed, so I'm not sure what you are stating here...

My point is that vote parking and pushing a wagon is 2 very different things. Vote parking is just leaving your vote somewhere without realing doing anything with it. When you're actively pushing the player your on, your vote isn't 'parked', it's active; even if useless. I wasn't pushing you, my vote was just sitting on you. Mainly because I don't tend to move my vote much.

13. In 1068:

There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...

This is such a crappy thing to rely on.

Yeah, this is kinda a concern actually. What are the chances that scum have the N3 vig and fakeclaimed? In that case, we are in Mylo right now. But if no one has the N3 vig/vengeful slot (cuz Vengeful isn't gonna claim due to autolynch), no lynching would be the wrong move... Any thoughts since you seem to be the remaining expert on the setup?

No lynching is a stupid idea and we're never doing it. It's both possible and evident given the role blocker that scum have lied about their roles, but it's not something we should read too much into as we simply can't tell if they have any unaccounted for roles.

14. In 1211:

Town:
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Town lean:
Iconeum

(Note: portions of this readslist were excluded). Please explain these two reads if they are still relevant.

Niether are presently relevant to me given the nature of how I'm going about today. SIMYK has definitely dropped though.

15. In 2209:

since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

I don't see how that makes a difference? It seemed pretty reasonable to assume that Lalendra wasn't lying about their role, and I still think the simplest explanation is Iconeum is scum.

It makes a huge difference as my whole theory regarding scum!Icon specifically required scum to want the role cop slot. With Lalendra being scum, we have less evidence suggesting this is the case.

16. In 2238:

We are in perpetual MYLO

Not strictly true, but if we are lynching today, we need to lynch someone that we think have a 90% chance of flipping scum. We are either in MyLo today or 1 mislynch away from LyLo. I would assume the latter except the fact that scum may gambit with fakeclaiming...

Yeah I noted my mistake in a post later. I still consider us in a form of MYLO though given that no PYP X/Y game has ever made it to day 6 - which is the day we'd reach if we have 1 mislynch and 3 scum lynches.

17. In 2287:

Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

I'm just saying we need to factor in reads as well...

Other Notes:
1. With the exception of 240, the first 17 or so posts of the ISO deal almost exclusively with setup spec. That is a bit excessive in my opinion.

Conclusions: To be quite honest, I really think I am leaning towards town here despite the "methodology-related" stuff that I seriously disagree with. Basically, I don't think I want to lynch this slot today.

Addendum @Mutant: What do you think the chances are that a scum vengeful fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a scum N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a town N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT AND would kill if our lynch today flips town? Do you think it is more likely that we are currently in MyLo (with a N3 vig that fakeclaimed or a vengeful that fakeclaimed) or 1 mislynch away from LyLo? Do you think it is better for us to No Lynch on the off-chance that we are in MyLo or to lynch under the hopes that our target is scum, or at least, we aren't in MyLo?

The probability that scum fake claimed each role is exactly the same as each other. If town has fake claimed VT at all, that's probably a good thing. It screws with my mechanical solving a little bit but that extra kill could mean the difference between winning or losing the game. As I said earlier, we're not no lynching.

[mutantdevle]

2300 will definitely assist me later so thanks for that.

[davesaz]

I never call someone conf without either a true mechanical clear (result or chain of results from flipped town) or a mod confirmation.
At times there are people I'm willing to accept as town without confirmation, Ircher is now one of those cases.

Borrowing from Ircher's list, with annotations by me.

1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

Dave says: I don't know Iconeum well enough to meta read but I will say that without a doubt it is possible that scum took cop in position #1 for the express purpose of being able to claim blocked and outlast their RB or JK partner. We don't lynch this first but it doesn't survive to endgame.

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

Dave says: I was town reading behavior, but planned to look at voting and reads to see how they correlate to actual events. From pure setup spec I think if there is a RB this slot is more likely, even if that doesn't match with play. Rolecop was already claimed/flipped before this claim, right?

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

Dave says: scumread on behavior. Only real choice for RB unless we've been fooled by SIMYK.

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer

Dave says: strong meta town read based on numerous games

10: Almost50/Davesaz (8)

- VT, Neighborizer

Claim is consistent with play.

Knowing how A50 plays, I was >90% sure this slot was town

before

I replaced into it. A50 would try for neighborizer without a doubt

I say this only to inform you about A50 meta, I know it's irrelevant for me to have that strong a meta read on "myself"
11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer
12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

I'm not in a position yet to give good commentary on mutant and below.

[Ircher]

Yeah, Lalendra claimed Rolecop D1, and it was basically a given that they were.

[Eddie Cane]

and then got guiltied by the mod somehow idk wtf happened that'll be a fun post game talk

[mutantdevle]

Based on setup spec and meta, I think the worst was simply killed for his position in the draft order. Scum didn't know what role they were hitting, they just wanted rid of a likely PR. By not killing higher in the draft list, they create WIFOM amongst Icon's slot. Scum

wants

us to be suspicious of Icon and part of that influenced their first kill. Besides, knowing they have a RBer to keep Icon's investigations at bay they don't need to kill him.

[Eddie Cane]

that all starts with the assumption iconeum is town

[mutantdevle]

With Math, we can eliminate a few variables. He was confirmed as his role. Scum obviously didn't kill him because they wanted to eliminate his role since he was functionally a townie from day 2 onwards and scum knew it. Based on setup meta (and common sense), he was clearly killed because the mafia felt threatened by him. Again, we can remove the idea that this threat was in the form of him looking townie, because many of us were paranoid/suspicious of him, the only reason this leaves is that his reads were strong.

So let's see what mathdino's reads were:

Janitor - scum
Eddie - town
mutant - town through trusting Eddie
davesaz - town lean
Ausuka - scum
Icon - scum
Ircher - scum
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis - town
Taly - town

Read into that as you will, I'll be making conclusions from it later.

[mutantdevle]

that all starts with the assumption iconeum is town

That's the logical conclusion I'm getting given the most probable reason the worst was killed.

[Iconeum]

work has been busy. Today is a end of school day for my kids.
Janitor is most likely rb.
Agree with using some discussion time. Gotta go.

Yeah I'm still town - Mathdino isn't correct by default - but I doubt y'all would believe me at this point. I don't trust dave too much still. He could be the roleblocker. But I'm guessing if it comes down to me and him, y'all are lynching me.

Let me know what you wanna know. From my perspective if Dave is the RB then Ico is town, if Dave is town Ico is scum. But Dave could say the same. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is a hilariously scummy exchange right here.
I'm adding SIMYK as 3rd scum (and probably even RB) on top of these 2.

[Iconeum]

Town should get a few things very straight here:

-I am confirmed cop 100%
-I will never get a result until RB is lynched
-If or when RB is lynched, I will die.


So, scum is janitor, davesav, SIMYK. I can understand if you guys think I fit in that list (at least in davesav spot). If you think i fit into that list in another spot we need to talk.

If you think I'm scum but still agree with janitor and SIMYIK, consider me a vote on either on those 2 you can use.

[Iconeum]

Spoiler: Ircher's ISO read on me

Iconeum ISO:

1. In 164:
"1) wanted to deny scum a free first pick" -->

Okay, but you ended up with first pick, so..........

"2) would not be unhappy being VT" -->

Do you seriously think that a bunch of people are going to be picking 1 as their draft number? Like, I can see MAYBE 1 scum doing it and MAYBE 1 OTHER townie (i.e.: someone besides you) choosing it, but I think the chances of such are extremely low... Perhaps Mutant with his setup knowledge can determine the frequency at which the number one is picked in the draft....

"3) if i got the pick, i put scum in a bad situation because I either end up as lynchbait or am completely wrong in my reads so they want to leave me alive to endgame. having the first pick at least makes them considering killing me early just because of the (potentially strong) power." -->

This is pretty much an obvious PR soft, but considering they had first pick anyway, it was a given they are a PR. Now, why isn't the town cop dead yet? Scum knows there is no doctor (by either having or not having the roleblocker) and the jailkeeper is dead... Like, if you are still alive in LyLo regardless if we lynch the roleblocker, you should get autolynched.

2. In 202:

I'm not sure u are scum for it. It's a very good place to start though.

Compare this with Iconeum's writing in 198: "Only scum would have the motivation to play like that". See the discrepancy?

3. In 666:

Funny you mention Ausuka, because I just reread that ISO and it's much worse then i thought it was. The Ircher scumread, then voting and instantly unvoting was weird. Then the read turned so quikly into a semi-townread, followed by flip-flopping votes on Lalendra and Lovebird. Upgrading to a scumlean on Ausuka

Something doesn't feel right about this post...

4. In 1071:

why are you so focused on lalendra's low content posting?

Why not? (Man, I wish Lalendra was scum.... We would be much better off for associative tells if that had been the flip...)

5. In 1418:

High in drafts / lolreason.

As you will see after this game, town will choose high as well (cough).

(I added the underlining.) Wait, is this a scum claim? (I guess he could be referring to himself but I digress...)

6. In 1685:

and now I come back with an effort post/case which is pretty damn good if i say so myself (better scumcontent then EITHER wagon right now) and I'm being scumread for it.

LAMIST!

7. In 2113:

I checked math and got no result

Explain what went into this decision...

8. In 2186:

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

This hammer was really bad.

Also, Janitor was *clearly* the better lynch to make.

Other Notes:
1. Large initial focus on The Janitor and his posts.
2. Midway through Day 1 when it became evident that The Janitor was not going to be lynched, Iconeum switched gears and started heavily pursuing Lovebird.

Conclusion: Not really sure about this slot. I still think the setup points moreso to this slot being scum, but from a reads standpoint, I would say I am about neutral on this slot.

-I ended with first pick, yes. Does that make my reasoning bad? Would it be better if town just let scum have the nr 1 for free?
-I figured there'd be at least 1 other to pick 1. Don't know why scum let town have this. Maybe because it draws too much attention having the number.
-Why would I NOT soft PR?
-From a mechanical PoV, you are correct to lynch me if I'm alive after RB is dead. Though WIFOM.
-I've spent a larger portion of my effort engaging with the worst trying to get a read on him and his tunnel. I have no regrets here.
-5 is just blatant shading of my slot. It obviously referred to myself as town picking the 1.
-6 isn't LAMIST, it's FRUSTRATION
-7 Do you really think Math wasn't a good choice? Who was the best N1 pick you think? Math was a controlling force in the game, and he had scummy vibes on him. The only reason he is a 'bad' pick is because if town he would be NK'd early on, as proven. What do you think of my N2 target, Saske?
-8 A bad hammer on Lalendra? What? I disagree, simple as that. ALSO, you stated INTENT to hammer Lalendra YOURSELF.

[Taly]

Letting you guys know that the biggest "I'm busy" part of vacation is right now. Today I'm doing things exclusively with family and almost ALL of tomorrow will be us travelling

If I don't post today or tomorrow I'll post Saturday most likely

[Ircher]

Yeah, but you flat out hammered without a word. That’s why it was bad.

[Iconeum]

Yeah, but you flat out hammered without a word. That’s why it was bad.

No it wasn't. You act like it was a quichammer that ended a day early.
I think you bypass the whole idea/use of stating intent to hammer.

[Iconeum]

So, scum is janitor, davesav, SIMYK. I can understand if you guys think I fit in that list (at least in davesav spot). If you think i fit into that list in another spot we need to talk.

If you think I'm scum but still agree with janitor and SIMYIK, consider me a vote on either on those 2 you can use.

This is what we need to be discussing, however. The bad/not bad discussion is much less important.

[Ircher]

Well, we’re lynching Janitor today, and with any luck, you’ll be night-killed and our suspicions can dissipate.