Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]


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Post Post #2375 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:28 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:
In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.
Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.
The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?
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Post Post #2376 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:31 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

We know Icon didn't choose redirector, hence we've eliminated the chance that scum!Icon has chosen redirector. Since all townies have made the choice of cop between cop and redirector, this suggests that Icon is also one of those townies who made the same choice.
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Post Post #2377 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:33 pm

Post by Ausuka »

In post 2375, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:
In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.
Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.
The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?
It is relevant to the game! You are arguing that since 2 scum chose to be Redirector over Cop, Iconeum must have made the same choice. I am saying that Iconeum COULD be a Mafia Cop and this argument does not hold water.
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Post Post #2378 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:34 pm

Post by Ausuka »

In post 2376, mutantdevle wrote:We know Icon didn't choose redirector, hence we've eliminated the chance that scum!Icon has chosen redirector. Since all townies have made the choice of cop between cop and redirector, this suggests that Icon is also one of those townies who made the same choice.
No, that's wrong. We KNOW town!Icon chooses to be the Cop. We are discussing the decision of a hypothetical scum!Icon. Would he choose the Cop or not? I would argue that he could have done so.
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Post Post #2379 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:52 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

So you think Icon is scum cop?
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Post Post #2380 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:53 pm

Post by Ausuka »

Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
Who's scum if not Iconeum?
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Post Post #2381 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:57 pm

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 2380, Ausuka wrote:Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
Who's scum if not Iconeum?
Janitor - who is likely a role blocker - who is blocking icon - meaning icon is telling the truth about being role blocked by scum - which means Icon is town.
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Post Post #2382 (ISO) » Fri May 25, 2018 11:58 pm

Post by Ausuka »

I actually don't disagree with that argument.
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Post Post #2383 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 12:05 am

Post by mutantdevle »

All I've been doing is using the high ratio of cops being town and the general location that the role blocker tends to appear in the draft order as evidence that both Icon is a town cop and Janitor is likely to hold the RBer slot as evidence to this theory. I believe such details are more conclusive that simply reading each individual and trying to decide whether or not we believe their claims.
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Post Post #2384 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 12:52 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

technically they could be doing a gambit becusse ico would know there is in fact an rb

however

i really sont rhink they're the kinds of players to do that so il accept it
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Post Post #2385 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 12:53 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

In post 2367, Ausuka wrote:could Taly be scum?
I dont think xcum taly ever lets mathdino die
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Post Post #2386 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 1:12 am

Post by mutantdevle »

In post 2384, Eddie Cane wrote:technically they could be doing a gambit becusse ico would know there is in fact an rb

however

i really sont rhink they're the kinds of players to do that so il accept it
Yeah. Nothing I'm going to ever say will ever be 100% concrete. It literally can't be. There are always other variables such as gambits and the like. But I find things like that as unlikely to occur and hence don't factor them in too much. The fear of scum making gambits is far more than the frequency they ever actually make them. It's rare that scum actually does these kinds of things. But I'd also argue that my method of solving right now is far more accurate than most people's reads; especially my own.
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Post Post #2387 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 1:17 am

Post by mutantdevle »

@Eddie and Icon, do you mind unvoting Janitor? I'm fearful of someone hammering.

There's no way that Janitor isn't the lynch today - we don't need votes there at the moment as no pressure is being applied to him and we have more than enough people needed to lynch him.
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Post Post #2388 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 1:34 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

UNVOTE:
"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"
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Post Post #2389 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 11:35 am

Post by davesaz »

Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.
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Post Post #2390 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 11:37 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 2381, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 2380, Ausuka wrote:Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
Who's scum if not Iconeum?
Janitor - who is likely a role blocker - who is blocking icon - meaning icon is telling the truth about being role blocked by scum - which means Icon is town.
Or scum faking being roleblocked
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Post Post #2391 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 3:32 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 2369, Ausuka wrote:Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.
Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.

Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.

If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.
You realize 9 isn't a large sample size either. The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high to me. Scum!Icon can fakeclaim being roleblocked, and given the setup as it is in this iteration, can do so quite easily regardless of the presence of a mafia roleblocker.

That said, if Janitor does flip roleblocker, I'll reconsider my read on Iconeum.
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Post Post #2392 (ISO) » Sat May 26, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 2375, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:
In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.
Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.
The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?
Here we have a reversal of a conditional probability, which can generally have surprising results.

Rather than the probability that a Cop is Mafia, Ausuka is looking at the probability that a mafioso picks Cop.
We have 0/9 Cops have been mafia, but we only have 0/2 Mafia choosing the redirector/cop slot being a cop.

Now, given the current stats, the probabilities for both are the SAME; however, we only have a sample size of 2 for the scum choices, so one can't put much faith into that value. Like, I really hope you understand what is being emphasized here, because if you are going to make predictions off of data, you have to do it correctly, and we cannot really afford any mistakes due to incorrect analysis.
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Post Post #2393 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 3:58 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

VOTE: Mathdino
"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"
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Post Post #2394 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 3:59 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

In post 2389, davesaz wrote:Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.
As scum I would really strongly argue optimal play is to pick Cop. Rolecop is too much of a threat. And the Watcher can catch a lie potentially.

yay random game irrelevant theory talk :)

how's it goin mutant
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Post Post #2395 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 5:18 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 0, yessiree wrote: [poiler=Dead]Lovebird,
Vanilla Townie
, Lynched D1
the worst,
Town Jailkeeper
, Killed N1
Myloninja13,
Vanilla Townie
, Killed N1
Lalendra,
Town Role Cop
, Lynched D2
Mathdino,
Town 1-Shot Vigilante
, Killed N2
[/spoiler]
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Post Post #2396 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 5:25 am

Post by Eddie Cane »

In post 679, Iconeum wrote:Can't we all be friends and vote Janitor together?
"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"
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Post Post #2397 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 5:37 am

Post by Ausuka »

VOTE: mutantdevle
zzz
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Post Post #2398 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 5:42 am

Post by Ausuka »

VOTE: The Janitor
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Post Post #2399 (ISO) » Sun May 27, 2018 7:52 am

Post by yessiree »

Prodding Iconeum
Locked

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