The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.
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I mostly just lurk now.- mutantdevle
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It is relevant to the game! You are arguing that since 2 scum chose to be Redirector over Cop, Iconeum must have made the same choice. I am saying that Iconeum COULD be a Mafia Cop and this argument does not hold water.In post 2375, mutantdevle wrote:
The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:
Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.- Ausuka
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No, that's wrong. We KNOW town!Icon chooses to be the Cop. We are discussing the decision of a hypothetical scum!Icon. Would he choose the Cop or not? I would argue that he could have done so.In post 2376, mutantdevle wrote:We know Icon didn't choose redirector, hence we've eliminated the chance that scum!Icon has chosen redirector. Since all townies have made the choice of cop between cop and redirector, this suggests that Icon is also one of those townies who made the same choice.No matter what happens, I'll be right there with you.- mutantdevle
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Janitor - who is likely a role blocker - who is blocking icon - meaning icon is telling the truth about being role blocked by scum - which means Icon is town.In post 2380, Ausuka wrote:Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
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All I've been doing is using the high ratio of cops being town and the general location that the role blocker tends to appear in the draft order as evidence that both Icon is a town cop and Janitor is likely to hold the RBer slot as evidence to this theory. I believe such details are more conclusive that simply reading each individual and trying to decide whether or not we believe their claims.I mostly just lurk now.- Eddie Cane
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technically they could be doing a gambit becusse ico would know there is in fact an rb
however
i really sont rhink they're the kinds of players to do that so il accept it"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- Eddie Cane
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I dont think xcum taly ever lets mathdino dieIn post 2367, Ausuka wrote:could Taly be scum?"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- mutantdevle
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Yeah. Nothing I'm going to ever say will ever be 100% concrete. It literally can't be. There are always other variables such as gambits and the like. But I find things like that as unlikely to occur and hence don't factor them in too much. The fear of scum making gambits is far more than the frequency they ever actually make them. It's rare that scum actually does these kinds of things. But I'd also argue that my method of solving right now is far more accurate than most people's reads; especially my own.In post 2384, Eddie Cane wrote:technically they could be doing a gambit becusse ico would know there is in fact an rb
however
i really sont rhink they're the kinds of players to do that so il accept itI mostly just lurk now.- mutantdevle
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Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.Wanna play Minecraft with your ms friends? Check out the minecraft thread, or the channel on discord- Ircher
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Or scum faking being roleblockedIn post 2381, mutantdevle wrote:
Janitor - who is likely a role blocker - who is blocking icon - meaning icon is telling the truth about being role blocked by scum - which means Icon is town.In post 2380, Ausuka wrote:Maybe. I definitely disagree he should be considered town for bring a Cop.
Who's scum if not Iconeum?Links: User Page | GTKAS
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You realize 9 isn't a large sample size either. The prob. of scum cop seems pretty high to me. Scum!Icon can fakeclaim being roleblocked, and given the setup as it is in this iteration, can do so quite easily regardless of the presence of a mafia roleblocker.In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote:
Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.In post 2369, Ausuka wrote:Ircher was already locktown and Icon is still debateable. A Mafia Cop could definitely exist, 2 people is not a big enough sample size to judge whether mafia could go for that or not.
Furthermore, there can't both be a scum cop and a scum role blocker. We have mechanical evidence to confirm the theory that Icon is a town cop being role blocked by a scum role blocker who happens to specifically be Janitor - who can further be incriminated by his shitty play.
If you're scum reading the janitor, especially as the role blocker, then Icon should be town for you.
That said, if Janitor does flip roleblocker, I'll reconsider my read on Iconeum.Links: User Page | GTKAS
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Here we have a reversal of a conditional probability, which can generally have surprising results.In post 2375, mutantdevle wrote:
The point of Ico!scum choosing redirector is 100% irrelevant since we KNOW that, regardless of alignment, Icon IS the cop. Why are you choosing to refute me on a point that has no impact on this game?In post 2374, Ausuka wrote:
Yes, all cops choose town. That much was obvious already. What I'm focusing on is what scum chooses- what Ico!scum would choose. For that we have 2 scum who chose Redirector. I don't see how, from that, we can tell that Ico!scum would choose redirector.In post 2372, mutantdevle wrote: Then focus on the 9 sample size that says cops are town.
Rather than the probability that a Cop is Mafia, Ausuka is looking at the probability that a mafioso picks Cop.
We have 0/9 Cops have been mafia, but we only have 0/2 Mafia choosing the redirector/cop slot being a cop.
Now, given the current stats, the probabilities for both are the SAME; however, we only have a sample size of 2 for the scum choices, so one can't put much faith into that value. Like, I really hope you understand what is being emphasized here, because if you are going to make predictions off of data, you have to do it correctly, and we cannot really afford any mistakes due to incorrect analysis.Links: User Page | GTKAS
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As scum I would really strongly argue optimal play is to pick Cop. Rolecop is too much of a threat. And the Watcher can catch a lie potentially.In post 2389, davesaz wrote:Saying that town have picked cop 100% of the time they got that pick, and scum picked redirector 100% of the time is nice info but not predictive.
Assuming that a rolecop result of cop -> conf town merely because of the previous games stats is gambler's fallacy.
yay random game irrelevant theory talk
how's it goin mutant"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site"- davesaz
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In post 679, Iconeum wrote:Can't we all be friends and vote Janitor together?"Ima need to buy at least Josh a fucking tarot card reading because this dude is scary at picking up on scum before they even post what the fuck type of Ms. Cleo ass psychic ass mothafucka did yall allow to sign up for this site" - Eddie Cane
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