Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[ArcAngel9]

VOTE COUNT - 5.0

Pine

-

skitter30

-

ceejayvinoya

-

Klick

- Pine, ceejayvinoya (L)

Not Voting

, skitter30, , Klick

With 4 alive it takes 3 for a lynch and 2 for no lynch.
Day 5 ends in (expired on 2018-07-17 18:19:00)

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[skitter30]

Yes but that still doesnt explain the n3 kill.

Tbh I'm very surprised that I'm not dead yet.

You replaced in at day4 daystart, right, so you (i mean you and not your slot) couldn't have made the kill?

Honestly I'm very surprised that I'm still here and I'm wondering if that's an indicator that my read on pine is wrong.

[Klick]

Correct, I replaced in when it was already day and thus I, as wolf, would have only been here for last night phase.

At some point soon I'm going to go back and read ceejay's slot.

[skitter30]

I really don't know if fumuki makes a whole thing about wanting the wolves to kill maf as maf

but his dayplay was very focused on lynching wolves

and he was focusing on telling the wolves *not* to lynch the seer

brass's posting on page 28 is icky

rereading fumuki i'm kinda townreading him. maybe it's town!klick, wolf!cj, maf!pine? that's concordant with me not being dead yet since i've been townreading cj for a while now. i'm having a lot of trouble seeing fumuki's day1 posting as coming from maf tbh

givens: pine is some type of scum.

lesser level of given: klick probably not maf despite his plan from fumuki and from draynth's one and only major push being on yankee (ruby)

this gives me: klick can be town/wolf; cj can be town/wolf/maf; pine can be wolf/maf

if i throw in the condition that cj can't be maf from pin's push on him (which i need to verify from the end of day1 when i get there), i have:

klick can be town/wolf; cj can be town/wolf; pine can be wolf/maf ----> pine has to be maf because no one else is. but brass's associatives with ap are icky

like posts like 787-789 just don't come from maf i think

ap siding with fumiki in the sando v fumuki thing

i can see the convo between fumuki and ap in 800-803 as coming from partners tho. rest of the convo on that page too

ap joining the espeonage wagon on brass's behest is meh

i think fumuki actually believes what he's saying even tho i think he's wrong about most of it

fumuki probably isn't partners with pin

My townreads at this moment are

Sando

,

skitter

,

UD

and

myself

, so hit me up to see who wants to be which Beatle (I know I know, but someone has to be Ringo).

MWNN

is Brian Epstein and I'm looking for our George Martin. It's pretty obvious that the Seer will be Ravi Shankar when confirmed.

ok this is an interesting post from pin. he was right on sando, me, and ud, the only unflipped name is pine-slot. partner-indicative i think

wow my reads were bad in 898

fumuki-pin convo on page 38 prob doesn't come from partners

so everyone alive besides for myself was on the esp wagon, which means both wolves and one maf were on it

pin's push on ceejay isn't as strong as i remembered it being, but i still kinda doubt that he decides to end the day voting his partner when he could have voted me or esp

ceejay's ap interactions aren't as strong as i remember them being either; could be partners actually? bleh 1293 really isn't a bussing vote i think. but 1256 is actually pretty compelling for cj/ap; i forgot about that. all three of me/esp/ceejay are very unlikely to be town and ap did promote the esp thing over ceejay when ceejay's wagon was heating up

[skitter30]

OK, I stopepd mid day2 and my conclusions are:

-> pin's probably not scum with ceejay

-> fumuki is really never maf here from dayplay + draynth pushing yankee

-> that means pine is maf (also explains why i'm not dead)

-> fumuki overall is kinda townie even tho he's wrong about like everything

-> ceejay doesn't have great associatives with ap on a reread.

so given all of these my best understanding of the game is wolf!cj, maf!pine, town!klick

[skitter30]

and wolf!ceejay is also supported by me not being dead given that i was townreading him

[skitter30]

i hope this doesn't fuck the game over

VOTE: cj

[skitter30]

i'm not as confident in that as i want to be

but the wolf is either cj or klick i think

[skitter30]

waiting for other people to post is kinda skeeving me out actually given mylo

UNVOTE:

till other people come online and i see what they think about that theory

i'm voting cj in spirit tho

[ceejayvinoya]

If AP was my partner, why would I bus him D2 rather than defend him pre-claim?

[skitter30]

presumably so we can have this convo?

if i'm wrong talk to me about where i'm going wrong

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm thinking Wolf!Klick left you alive here because he thought you would go after Pine.

[skitter30]

But then why not lynch him with me yesterday?

[Pine]

I'm like 80% sure it's Wolf!Klick + skitter!Mafia.

Skitter is dragging his feet because he knows he'd lose in 2:1 LYLO, and is holding out for a Town lynch or NL to take his chances with the Wolf's shot. After all, the Wolf has to shoot correctly or it loses.

Yeah. This kind of sucks, because Skitter can just dig in and refuse to comply. It's probably his best chance...a miss at night gives him the win.

[skitter30]

i'm a she; i think we went through this like six times this game already

i'm like 60-40 that it's ceejay over klick (and i'm like ~90% that you're maf)

why isn't it ceejay?

yeah i'm basically going to be stubborn till i get the info i need to decide cuz all three of you need my vote to lynch anybody not named me since i'm not getting lynched today given that literally nobody is claiming they think i'm the wolf right now

if i'm maf at this point really no reason at this point not to just vote for a no-lynch with klick (only needs two votes) and bet that i don't get killed overnight and win the endgame.

i'm not tho and i actually want to solve the game and you lot are being kinda unhelpful

[skitter30]

like pine if you want me to vote klick you need to explain why you think they're the wolf and why ceejay isn't (emphasis on why ceejay isn't)

i'm pretty confident that you're mafia which means by definition your goals are not my own and if you want me to do what you want you need to explain why you're right and i'm wrong

otherwise i see little reason to trust your opinion here

[skitter30]

like i'm confused why you think maf!me is drawing this out instead of just going 'hey klick, yeah, i agree with your math!', vote for a no-lynch, and gamble that i don't get killed overnight

like i don't know what you think i'm trying to accomplish here other than like ... solving the game

[skitter30]

i'm not sure which scenario you're referring to.

if we lynch mafia today the wolf wins overnight.

if we lynch town today the wolf wins overnight if they shoot mafia; if they shoot town maf wins (maf wins 1W:1M)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town ovrenight maf wins in 1:1:1 (maf wins 1W:1M:1T)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots maf it's 3 way lylo for the wolf.

lynching today always seems better from the wolf's perspective; they have two chances at finding the mafia: both by the lynch and the kill.

p-edit: yes i took that into account

like so long as the wolf avoids getting lynched today it seems much better for the wolf to lynch today than no-lynch - they have two shots at winning if we lynch - by either lynching mafia or lynching town and then shooting mafia

i'm having a lot of trouble understanding why this plan comes from the wolf tbh; no-lynching seems to put the wolf in a much worse position

i'm willilng to entertain the notion that it comes from maf but i really just don't think a wolf proposes this

[Pine]

i'm a she; i think we went through this like six times this game alreadyl

I am genuinely sorry about this. It was in no way intentional.

The way I figure, you're stalling for time, trying to shift the focus to someone else. You don't want to NL right now, you think you'll eat the NK. You don't want to lynch Klick, you think you'll get lynched tomorrow. From that perspective, stalling is the best bet.

By the way, you're kind of proving my point on why ceejay is Town. It would be pretty easy for scum!ceejay to justify a No Lynch vote, right now, as there's no way he gets NKed or lynched if he did. That leaves me with you and Klick; of the two, Klick is acting transparently Wolfish. Ergo, you are Mafiascum.

Game solved.

[skitter30]

yes, i, as maf, purposefully decide to stall for time to enact a no-lynch instead of just taking the opportunity to do so at daystart, great plan!

i have no idea why i'm 'trying to shift the focus to anyone else' given that i'm literally never getting lynched today; i don't *have* to shift the focus to anyone else right now

and idk why you think that maf!me doesn't want klick lynched here -
between the four of us i'm fairly confident in my ability to avoid the lynch even if i were up for it today ( i did just that at least twice this game already ); i really don't think i get lynched tomorrow in me/you/cj and honestly i think it's asinine that you think that would happen here with town!cj who's been quite vocal against lynching me over the past two days. like i really have no idea why you think that lylo *isn't* good for me and why, as maf, i don't just grab that oppurtunity to hammer and run with a lylo against the guy i've been trying to lynch for like 2.5 dayphases and the guy who thinks on associatives i'm not scum here

and i've been expecting to be dead for like two days now so the nk isn't exactly what i'm worried about; if i was trying to avoid the nk as maf after pin got nk'd and even more so after ruby got nk'd ... this isn't how i'd have been playing the last several phases

like what i'm doing here really has like no maf-motivation if you actually think about what you're saying; your accusations don't really makes sense in this gamestate

[skitter30]

Kinda need to know what kick thinks about ceejay

[ceejayvinoya]

lynch espe d1
???
???
town wins!

This is bothering me in the same way that ceejay's vote on AP was bothering me. Why is your immediate response to esp to call for him to be lynched him? Ceejay did the same thing to AP.

--

duckling I'm getting scum vibes from you :/

--

Also in the last iteration of jungle republic, esp did in fact get hard-cleared by just about everyone for bussing scum!a50 super-hard, so I think that there is some merit to this theory

Why is my vote on AP bothering you? that was rvs. Tho I guess it will become serious soon if AP doesn't stop posting shit.

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

AP here doesn't seem to be taking the game seriously.

which is scum indicative of NM
but he's townposting

Are you placing BoP on NM? Lols. Anyway NM is likely town this time.

I simply know he has good reads, and there is a reason I worded my post that way.

Why is NM probably town here?


pedit: that isn't AI for AP at this stage. I'm also not taking the game super seriously yet. Let ppl warm up.

I don't understand why you'd pair me with AP. I thought he was pretty much sus ever since D1. The only thing that stopped me from this is the worst telling me to back off because the way he was playing at that point is NAI.

[ceejayvinoya]

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

Lol, this guy.

Want to provide any reasoning for literally anything this game?

Nice job piling onto N_M when you are doing the same.

VOTE: ceejaynova

Although I'm not Welsh, I'll do sheep you on this one

VOTE: ceejaynova

AP, you should join the Espeonage wagon, 2/3 of it is town. Let's make it a straight 75%

VOTE: Espeonage

Still not caught up though, and my internet (or my PC) is shitty.

I don't have much time to go in depth about how I got to the following conclusion, so I'll just say "Welp, I'm AP"

I think Espeonage and the worst are scum together (reminder: Scum = anti-town). Espeo is getting wagoned and the only player he feels fine voting is tw who doesn't even have a real chance to get lynched?

If Espeo flips a WW I think tw is the other one and we have the power from then on (either by lynching him or leashing as someone suggested, although I'm not a fan of the latter myself).

If Espeo flips Mafia though, then not only tw is Mafia, but also one of CJV/skitter .. I think.

@Fumuki: I'm TRing you for your weird logic. I mean, I get the feeling you were looking for "which lynch was more likely to go through" between CJV and Espeo rather than which of them is more likely scum (reminder: Scum in my book = anti-town). You also wanted to "save" skitter today, yet I fifn't get the impression you were TRing her!!

Now the reason I TR this is I cannot see any anti-town player saying this in the open. It's kinda the definition for "too scummy to be scum" kind of revelation. Feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding your logic.

Also I'm seeing that he's equally willing to have me lynched.

[skitter30]

I don't understand why you'd pair me with AP. I thought he was pretty much sus ever since D1. The only thing that stopped me from this is the worst telling me to back off because the way he was playing at that point is NAI.

a) all of those posts were from early game (ie occured in a not-critical time in the game)

b) none of these posts are pushing him hard and are easily said by scumpartners

--

Also I'm seeing that he's equally willing to have me lynched.

voting you in the 400s and switching off of you when your wagon was heating up and at ~L-2 is not indicative of 'equally willing to have you lynched'

saying that he thinks you're my partner after esp flips scum isn't clearing and i've seen scum!him tell me: after beefster flips scum, i guarantee that both of his partners are in {montosh, skitter, laser}, where beef/me/laser were all town and montosh was his partner

[skitter30]

basically:

-> you're not maf because pin wanted to lynch you day1 and he started that push

-> klick isn't maf because fumuki got personally offended that nobody was listening to his 'werewolves need to kill maf at night plan'

so pine is maf

i really don't know how to figure out which of the two of you is the wolf

-> i don't think that wolf!klick proposes this plan? it's dumb from a wolf's pov

-> wagonomics day1 point to you given that the three leading wagons were me/you/esp and i don't think all of them were on town and ap switched off of you to esp at that point

-> i don't know if you make the night3 kill but i'm wondering if last night's kill is because i was townreading you. the kills don't fully make sense from anyone tbh

i don't really know how to put all the pieces together so everything makes sense and this makes the most sense to me

the question is really if/when klick will say anything and how stubborn i'm going to be and whether or not i'll just give up because i don't have the motivation to convince all three of you

i'd rather be right than win but i don't think i can vote someone i don't think is the wolf; it's tantamount to throwing to me

like voting not-wolf!klick basically loses the game for town and i just don't think it's him right now