Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[skitter30]

and i'm not doing anything till ceejay shows up and says what he's thinking

[Klick]

Town's agency is already partially removed from this situation. 3 votes are required for a lynch to occur. In order for the wolf to be lynched today, the mafia's assistance (as well as correct read) is required.

I really don't care which scumteam has what odds at the end of the day. I care about what odds town has. Town's odds improve with a no-lynch, as we leave the decision up to someone who's confirmed to

not

be the scum we're looking for and who has complete motivation to aim for what town wants.

Frankly, I also have more faith in the wolf's chances of killing mafia at night than I do in town's chances of lynching the wolf today.


Thinking through, if there

is

a lynch today, mafia most benefits from it being the wolf. Their odds are 50% if town is lynched today, and... something like 75% if wolf is lynched today. With a no-lynch, mafia's odds are a flat 67%. So that means mafia's odds are best if the wolf is lynched today, but at the risk of lowering their odds if town is lynched.

The best scenario for both town and mafia would be if the wolf was lynched today. Unfortunately, that is statistically unlikely. This situation is basically a glorified MyLo where, despite there being an additional faction, the math is the same in that the strongest play for town is a no lynch.

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh hi.
I'm thinking Klick is more likely to be wolf than Pine.
Idk why Wolf!Pine would defend NM lynch yesterday.
I can't see him either killing UglyDuck. I think if he was wolf he'd go for Skitter.
I have no idea who last mafia is.

[ceejayvinoya]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

What. You do know that if wolf fails to kill mafia, town loses with wolf? I'm not happy with giving the wolf a chance to lose the game with us.

And you didn't even mention the possibility of wolf deciding to nk.

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Klick

[Klick]

That's L-1, fwiw.

ceejay, the math is there. If we fail to lynch the wolf, we lose. If we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town, we lose. It's just that one of those options is statistically more likely than the other. Town's best odds are letting the wolf try to shoot mafia.

Though to be fair, I didn't consider the possibility of the wolf not killing.

@Mod: If town doesn't lynch, then wolf doesn't kill, etc., at what point would the game end?

[Pine]

No-killing makes no damn sense for Wolf. There is literally no incentive.

[Klick]

Wolf is left in a better position in our current scenario than if it kills. Just like in a normal MyLo.

[skitter30]

I need to do my due diligence before I vote and check a bunch of things, including but not limited to: vcs, pine, pin, fumuki, probably all of day1, and fumuki meta if I still have patience that point.

[skitter30]

I really feel like this plan is more likely to come from maf then the wolf tho.

I have a thing nowish but I'll spend some time on this later today

[Klick]

I'm really failing to see the scum motivation everyone's seeing in proposing a plan that gives town the highest chance of winning it has.

Like, here's the order of events:
Klick - "No lynching gives town the best odds of winning, here's the math to show it."
Pine - "No it doesn't!! You're obviously a wolf for suggesting such a plan *votes Klick*"
Klick - "no you missed this setup rule here look at the stats again"
Pine - "nah"
Klick - "no srsly go look at it"
skitter - "Okay, so maybe town

does

have the best chance of winning with this plan... but not by

much

, and I'd rather the town as a whole make the decision than let the wolf make it." (fwiw I respect this line of thought, although I don't agree with it)
ceejay - "You do realize town could

lose

if the wolf's wrong, right? *votes Klick*"

At the very least I understand skitter's thought process. The plan that benefits town most also happens to benefit mafia significantly. Thinking I'm wolf for proposing the plan is illogical. Unless there's significant other reasoning for believing I'm wolf (which both Pine and ceejay have alluded to but failed to elaborate on), the votes on me are rash and unjustified.

I'm inclined to believe skitter's the townie in this situation. Town is the only faction that could potentially lose immediately by us mislynching - wolf and mafia still have a chance if we miss.

[skitter30]

At the very least I understand skitter's thought process. The plan that benefits town most also happens to benefit mafia significantly. Thinking I'm wolf for proposing the plan is illogical. Unless there's significant other reasoning for believing I'm wolf (which both Pine and ceejay have alluded to but failed to elaborate on), the votes on me are rash and unjustified.

right, that's what i'm saying; i can buy an argument for maf!you based on this but i don't understand why they're calling you a wolf. and if you aren't the wolf you oughtn't be lynched today irregardless of your alignment

like this plan is just plain stupid from the wolf's pov imo

ok back to day1 now

pine if you want me to vote klick you need to explain why he's the wolf and/or why this plan comes from the wolf

[Pine]

1) Process of elimination. Wolf is not CJ and not you and not me. He's also advocating a pro-Wolf plan
2) His plan is blatantly pro-Wolf. It discards all Town agency.
3) Irregardless is not a word.

[Pine]

Also, you really don't want to lynch him because you will win as Mafia when he shoots someone else (I finally figured out the Mafia wins in ties rule. That would have been helpful in the Town role PM)

[skitter30]

hey, that doesn't remind me *at all* of that time when you tried to fake a slip by asking if scum had daytalk

i'm fairly confident you're scum; i'm trying to decide which type

i think the plan is more pro-maf than pro-wolf; i really don't think it comes from the wolf at all

and https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregardless

it's not officially a word i suppose but i like using it anyways for the lols

wait, are you trying to get me to lynch him or not lynch him, i can't tell from that last post?

[ceejayvinoya]

wait, are you trying to get me to lynch him or not lynch him, i can't tell from that last post?

Pine is saying here that you're mafia and you're against lynching Klick because Klick proposed a plan that will improve your odds of winning.

[skitter30]

]oh i misread that then

pine, you realize i think you're the wolf and you say you think i'm mafia, right?

cuz mafia!me kinda needs to be alive tomorrow to win

[skitter30]

16 and 17 - indicates that ceejay is prob not a partner with ap

160 - iirc draynth's (klick) major push and only vote was on yankee (ruby). idk if he does that to a partner?

in general there's a lot of casual interaction between AP and pine-slot, especially prominent since ap was doing like nothing earlygame

203 - from mwnn (pine) is just soooo gross in light of ap flipping wolf

228 - ap townreading mwnn?

237 - also really gross from mwnn given that ap is a wolf

254 - does mwnn say this as mafia? i feel like not

also the sequence from 290 - 293 doesn't feel like a super real convo to me

~334 feels like prob not partners between pin + draynth (klick). not super strong tho

369 - really doubt that draynth's one and only vote was on his partner?

410 - ap sheeps mwnn onto ceejay -> indicative of ap/ceejay not being a thing, maybe indicative of ap/mwnn being a thing?

457 - i feel like ap doesn't start a lolpush on partner draynth? like that really isn't a partner vote

504 - i feel like ap doesn't encourage his partner to rep out? idk, maybe he does in a game without daytalk?

625 - bleh why is mwnn making all these ww references?

ok around here fumuki replaced in and i'll pick up from here a bit later

thus far pine's slot makes a lot of sense with AP on associatives and i'm less confident that klick is maf actually?

[Pine]

]oh i misread that then

pine, you realize i think you're the wolf and you say you think i'm mafia, right?

cuz mafia!me kinda needs to be alive tomorrow to win

Wolf!me doesn't care who or whether we lynch. Wolf!me is confident he can NK the only actual threat. Wolf!me does not go out on a limb like this, there's no profit in it. I'm an advocate of "Do whatever you would as Town" scumplay, but only if it's not LYLO. Wolf!Pine shuts up and accepts whatever plan lets me shoot Mafia.

Also the misunderstanding regarding wincons wasn't faked - I was a replace-in, and missed that caveat.

[skitter30]

Pine, I really really dont believe you're town here because of your sando vote ans how you interacted with me yesterday.

Basically what I'm trying to decide is if you're the wolf or if you're maf, in which case I need to figure out which of the other two is the wolf.

From where I am in my read through, I'm pretty sure it's you because brass's associatives with AP are really icky. Like the more I read the more I see that. The main thing holding me back is that I'm not sure if klick's slot makes sense with maf, which is why I'm rereading the end of day1.

I will decide by the end of the day I think because otherwise I can spend like the whole two weeks arguing with myself back and forth and I dont want to do that to either me or to you guys.

Your self-meta doesn't really mean much to me at this point without an exhaustive meta thing that honestly I doubt I'm going to put the effort into; if you really want me to it would prob be a good idea to link those relevant games.

I believe it's possible that you didn't know the wincons; I think that tacking on the 'that would have been helpful in the town wincons' bit was superfluous and an attempt to look LAMIST and/or like a town slip.

[skitter30]

*'that would have been helpful in the town role PMs' bit

[skitter30]

Also I think you're most likely to have nk'd ruby that night of the 3 of you tbh, especially since it looks like fumuki's slot was kinda empty overnight.

Like I'm having a lot of trouble parsing who makes that kill knowing that I didn't.

[ArcAngel9]

@Mod: If town doesn't lynch, then wolf doesn't kill, etc., at what point would the game end?

If there is no lynch in Day phase, the game will move to night phase. If there is no night kill again, the following day phase begins...
this process will continue as long as someone wins the game.

[skitter30]

I guess the other thing holding me back is that I've been telegraphing o wanted to lynch you since day3 twilight and if you're the wolf I really dont know why I'm alive her

/sigh

I really wish you lot had listened to me yesterday so that we could have lynched pine already

[Klick]

I think the motivation for wolf killing UD is obvious - several people thought he was mafia, but not a single person expressed a wolf read on him. He’s someone that wouldn’t get lynched until the wolf was dead.