Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[skitter30]

lol ok.

i was just going through pin's iso.

ceejay i'm still pretty sure isn't scum with pin

ruby's iso has literally nothing beyond telling me i'm her partner

ap's isn't super helpful on associatives

fumuki looks viable with pin actually

your slot has basically no mentions with pin

i def believe you're scum but i'm not confident that you're maf; i could totally see you saying that as a wolf to get everyone else to like not lynch you today

aside, before you make me do a whole meta-dive thing, what's your experience with ruby?

(i prob will be checking your answer anyway tho tbh)

[skitter30]

in case it wasn't obvious, i'm trying to figure out who kills her that night given that i didn't

[skitter30]

bleh i was hoping i would be killed last night

now i have to like *effort* this and i lost motivation like ~three weeks ago

[skitter30]

draynth -> fumuki -> klick (replaced mid day1, and then like overnight n3)

mwnn -> pine (replaced at start of day2, post my AP push)

yankee -> ruby (maf, replaced mid day1)

--

In the meantime,
VOTE: TheYankeeReaper

Waiting for responses to 367 + he never replied to skitter's 97 from what I can see

his one and only vote probably isn't on his partner?

AP, why Draynth?

TBH, it's starting to be a PL for me in all games I'm in with him. He does jack shit and then replaces out. I want him to replace out sooner than later.

As you wish

@Mod: Sorry to do this but replace me please.

maybe partner indicative?

--

VOTE: ceejayinova

Yep. Needs more pressure votes.

first serious push of the game probably isn't on his partner?

--

Spoiler:

yo

why are you voting the ducky

and why aren't you voting skitter

Cause there's like 5 of them, and they're multiplying!

But more seriously, because this doesn't feel like his town game.

Skitter is bad-town imo, but that was off interactions with me, she's gone quiet recently I can see why you feel the way you do. I don't think it's a good D1 lynch though still.

i can just tell you right now that skitter's not bad town normally

people said kokichi was "bad town" in 2005

Guys I know that creating a speed wagon is fun as hell, but skitter is town and she's one of the lead singers of the band

explain

@CJV, lmk if you're around

Not gonna be around most of today and tomorrow. Got some exams to go through.

VOTE: CEEJAY

nah

i originally wanted to do a fake hammer but that vc fucked it up + i think people on the wagon moved their votes anyways

felt good to caps a vote

VOTE: SKITTER

from ruby, also indicative that ceejay isn't a partner i think?

Spoiler:

nm is baiting the nk

I want to lynch Ruby Red for calling this out. I was going to out this obvious gambit tomorrow, but NM was clearly trying to bait the kill away from TW. That's why he's Town, and why I was trying to support the gambit.

It wouldn't work against any of the more pro players, but...no offense to anyone, but there's some newbies and lowbies in this game.

Calling this out makes me think Ruby is trying to point it out to scumbuddies or something.

Do scum have daychat?

yeah and it wasn't fucking going to happen. nobody with two brain cells thought nm was the actual seer. thinking it would is an insult to the newbies in this game.

why the fuck would i need to point it otu to scumbuddies right now,

during the day

please don't say shit like htis to me again

Do scum have daychat?

Also Fuggo's "townslip" is definitely fabricated.

ironic

Asking about something that's public information is never a slip in any context - it's laziness. *Asserting* scum have daychat when they publicly don't could be construed as a slip or an attempt to fabricate one, but just asking is merely lazy.

wth is this

you don't see how appearing to not know if scum has daychat or not could be a slip

also from ruby, prob indicative that pine isn't a partner?

Ruby who are the rest of the scum here?

honestly don't have a good town poe

unfortunate that you had to also be PR, though it got us 1 wolf so not all bad

IMO skitter still scum, MWNN was town enough for pine to get a pass for a while

sando feels kinda town looking back at some of his responses to me earlier but he also looks like a skitter partner (lolmultiball1!!)

tbh i thought fuggo looked like just lynchbait town this game

{skitter, CJV, NM, Fumuki}?

but in the midst of that she comes to the conclusion that pine is prob town? hmmmmmm

--

given that pin, ruby, and yankee all went after ceejay i really can't imagine he's maf here

i think they all wolfread him and/or decided he was lynchbait

[skitter30]

i'll look at pine/brass/fumuki/pin and maybe reread day1 later or tomorrow

[Klick]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

[skitter30]

i want to hear what pine has to say before i say my opinion

[Pine]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

lol wtf this is DEFINITELY wolf.

No lynching has a 2/3 chance of Town immediately losing. The only way Town wins in a no-lynch is if WW shoots Mafia, and then win a 2:1 LYLO. Klick's suggestion that the Wolf loses if they don't shoot Mafia is completely and demonstrably false - 2:1 LYLO is in no way bad for the Wolf.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

VOTE: Klick

Pretty sure Skitter is our last remaining Mafia, who honestly believes I'm wolfscum. That panicked 'what the fuck is he doing fakeclaiming Mafia' reaction is *exactly* what I was fishing for.

[Klick]

Lynching has a 3/4 chance of Town immediately losing.

In addition:

Please take note of the special endgame mechanics:

The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.
If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

[Klick]

Whoops. Tags broken, but you get the point.

[Pine]

No, it doesn't. First, everyone knows their own identity, so it's still 2/3, except now we have agency instead of hoping WW decides to actually shoot Mafia.

[Klick]

...what?

Yes, everyone knows their own identity. That doesn't improve the town's odds as a whole of lynching the wolf today, it's still 1/4 that lynching could actually lead to a town win. I can say "I know I'm town" but that won't stop anyone from placing a vote on me.

[skitter30]

@pine: lol ok
--

ok i'll think this through now in a ramble-y thing

if we lynch anyone but a wolf today town loses

if we no-lynch, it's 2-1-1 going into the night. if the wolf shoots town, they lose to maf. if the wolf shoots maf it's a 2-1 lylo tomorrow with the wolf. as far as i can tell that basically gives town a 1-in-3 shot of having the game last tomorrow, and it depends on whether the wolf can successfully find the last mafia. tbf to them, they did kill two of them already. i'm trying to decide if the ud kill was looking for maf or planning this out overnight and trying to shoot his biggest townread? not sure

i don't really want to give the game to the wolf; if town loses i'd rather do it trying to lynch correctly today and being wrong than just letting someone else's decision determine the game for me

if we lynch randomly today i have a 2-in-3 chance of hitting some flavor of scum, and a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the wolf.

(and given that we've now spent like three phases arguing whether or not i'm the wolf, if we assume we've all accepted it isn't me, the rest of you have a 1-in-2 chance of hitting the wolf if you lynch randomly)

--

right now the wolf wants to lynch mafia i think; lynching town gives them a 1-in-2 shot of winning overnight if they kill mafia. if we lynch mafia they just win. they win by lynching mafia and they win if they lynch town and kill maf overnight.

if we no-lynch and they have a 1-in-3 chance of hitting mafia tonight, and if they do, it's 3-way lylo tomorrow. if we no-lynch and they hit town (a 2-in-3 chance), they lose tomorrow. like to win after a no-lynch they need to hit maf tonight and then win 3-way lylo

i feel like this plan is kinda risky from the wolf's perspective? like it seems to me that lynching is better than no-lynching for the wolf

--

for mafia, they need to not get lynched today. if they get lynched today they lose. if town gets lynched today, the wolf has a 1-in-2 shot of hitting mafia overnight. if they hit town, maf wins. if they hit maf, wolf wins. if we lynch today, mafia needs to a) not be lynched and b) not be killed overnight (a 1-in-2 chance) to win

whereas if we no-lynch, it depends on the wolf's shot. the wolf has a 1-in-3 chance of hitting mafia. if they do, mafia loses. if they don't, mafia wins. to win if we no-lynch today, all maf has to do is evade the shot (2-in-3 chance of that happening)

unless i'm really going wrong somewhere this makes like no sense coming from a wolf but makes a lot of sense coming from mafia?

[skitter30]

like for town to win it's a fairly narrow margin of victory:

-> lynching today: need to lynch the wolf today and the maf tomorrow

-> no-lynching today: need to trust the wolf to shoot maf and then win tomorrow in 3-way

no-lynching is probably marginally easier from a town perspective (only need to lynch correctly once), but means that i have to trust the wolf's reads more than my own. tbf the wolf knows who the wolf so they have a 1-in-3 shot of getting it right.

but like i'd rather lose because i messed up than because the wolf did, if that makes sense?

like, idk, i don't think there's that much of a difference practically in town's ability to win this either way; it's a long-shot both ways and tbh town prob lost this already (probably at the sando mislynch and when i couldn't get you guys to lynch pine yesterday).

like i don't particularly expect town to win at this point tbh, although like i'll do my best, and like, i don't think that no-lynching makes me that much more likely to get it right; it depends on the wolf getting it right and i see no reason to trust them over myself, and i'd rather lose because of my mistakes than the wolf's

--

whereas if you look at this from the perspective of wolf and maf respectively it's blatantly promoting a maf agenda if you actually go through all the possiblities.

[Pine]

How does Wolf lose if they don't shoot mafia? Mafia doesn't have a killing role. 1:1 Wolf wins

[Klick]

In addition:

Please take note of the special endgame mechanics:

The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.
If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

[skitter30]

i'm not sure which scenario you're referring to.

if we lynch mafia today the wolf wins overnight.

if we lynch town today the wolf wins overnight if they shoot mafia; if they shoot town maf wins (maf wins 1W:1M)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town ovrenight maf wins in 1:1:1 (maf wins 1W:1M:1T)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots maf it's 3 way lylo for the wolf.

lynching today always seems better from the wolf's perspective; they have two chances at finding the mafia: both by the lynch and the kill.

p-edit: yes i took that into account

[Klick]

That was in response to Pine, who seemed to miss it the first time.

[skitter30]

like lynching gives the wolves a much better shot of winning

no-lynching gives maf a much better shot of winning

i don't think it makes that much difference to town; town's basically fucked either way if all the lynches don't happen in the exact right order and i kinda doubt that's going to happen anyways. the former at least allows me to retain agency.

klick why are you promoting a blatant pro-maf agenda?

[skitter30]

i'm having a lot of trouble reconciling you promoting this plan and fumuki screaming for a week at the wolves to shoot maf

i probably really ought to reread day1, sigh

[Klick]

No-lynching gives town a slight edge, which I went over in my original post. We have very small odds of actually lynching the wolf today. Our odds are much better tomorrow if the wolf hits mafia.

Or to flip it around: why are you promoting an agenda that only improves the odds of the wolf?

[Klick]

The problem with lynching today is that we're forced to rely on someone that has no reason to want what we want. The mafia has no real incentive to help us today. And even if they did, our odds would still be better no-lynching.

If we no-lynch today we're forcing every decision into the hands of people who want the pro-town outcome to occur.

[skitter30]

that's my point - it gives town a *slight* edge by removing my agency and depending on the wolf to shoot right. it's not like it drastically increases town's odds of winning or anything

it *does* drastically increase maf's odds of winning tho. it turns it from being wolf-sided to being maf-sided

i'm not promoting an agenda; it's lylo and i'm weighing the pros/cons of the plan you proposed.

and i find it to be very maf-sided.

p-edit: so ur argument is basically that the maf is not incentivized to actually lynch the wolf today? why are they incentivized to go along with a plan that hinges on them getting shot overnight?

from maf's perspective no lynching is optimal tho? their odds of winning increase if we no-lynch.

so you're basically saying you want to work with the maf, who is going to hope the wolf shoots town overnight, and town does thi sin the hopes that the wolf shoots maf overnight?

why doesn't town + maf work together to remove the wolf today?

[skitter30]

can you eli5 why you think maf doesn't want to find the wolf today?

[skitter30]

like i don't think that no-lynching or lynching drastically changes the odds from town's perspective either way; or at least, it doesn't change the odds enough to make me want to let the wolf decide teh game for me

but i think that we're quibbling over who this benefits from *scum's* perspective which just isn't a good sign.

pine can you explain why klick's plan is wolf indicative? it's maf indicative to me tbh