Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

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Pine
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Post Post #1925  (ISO)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:32 pm

You know what?

I'm changing my mind.

I'm still pretty sure that ceejay is Town, Skitter is Mafia, and Klick is the Wolf. However, I also think that Klick knows this. From Klick's perspective, they *must* shoot Mafia tonight, or Mafia wins. Their best chance is to shoot Mafia!Skitter, and hope they can convince ceejay that the Wolf is me. That's probably the path of least resistance to a Wolf win here.

Ordinarily, I would fight tooth and nail against any plan which forfeits Town agency, but I'm reasonably confident this plays out to give everyone agency on D6.

VOTE: No Lynch

This is a gamble, but it's one I'm comfortable making.

skitter30
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Post Post #1926  (ISO)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:40 pm

maf!you wins if the wolf shoots town, which is what i think you're trying to make happen tbh

my play makes no sense as maf today, but do what you gotta do

i really don't know how to resolve this game satisfactorily

VOTE: ceejay

this is my best bet

i could well be wrong but this makes the most sense to me and what feels most right

Klick
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Post Post #1927  (ISO)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:23 pm

And I've changed my mind :) With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #1928  (ISO)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:07 pm

In post 1924, skitter30 wrote:-> i don't think that wolf!klick proposes this plan? it's dumb from a wolf's pov


He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"

-> wagonomics day1 point to you given that the three leading wagons were me/you/esp and i don't think all of them were on town and ap switched off of you to esp at that point


I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.

-> i don't know if you make the night3 kill but i'm wondering if last night's kill is because i was townreading you. the kills don't fully make sense from anyone tbh

i don't really know how to put all the pieces together so everything makes sense and this makes the most sense to me


Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #1929  (ISO)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:11 pm

Like I also have a basic understanding of if you and the guy you TR both make to lylo/mylo, it's likely he's scum bringing you along. If you weren't so dissociated from being wolf, i'd be suspicious of you.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

skitter30
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Post Post #1930  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:32 am

In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind :) With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.


klick i kinda need this to happen at some point

UNVOTE: for now

skitter30
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Post Post #1931  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:38 am

In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"


i'm not townreading him. i'm not-wolf-reading him, and those aren't the same thing

i really can't imagine the wolf proposing that though, it's a dumb plan from the wolf's pov. it's at best a play to get townread that could backfire horribly (like it got him two votes right off the bat)

--

In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.


i don't know if he sheeps his partner onto a mislynch; i kinda doubt that he does

if you're town all the eod1 wagons were on town, which i find unlikely.

ap popped in to promote the esp lynch just as your wagon was heating up and was at ~l-2; i found that to be partner-indicative, yes. yes i would think the same thing if esp were in your place and he had switched off of esp to you there. but that's not what happened or what he did and i have to take into account what actually happened.

--

In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?


i realy have no no idea why anyone killed rubyred; i suspect the duck kill was wolves trying to maf-hunt.

there was absolutely no indication that i was going to switch away from my townread of you; i didn't come to that point till like three days ago irl; wolf!you had no reason to suspect i'd do that; it's quite possible you thought that i was going to continue pushing pine based on yesterday

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #1932  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:52 am

In post 1823, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1764, skitter30 wrote:ceejay - town because he isn't maf (pin's preferred lynch day1) and isn't a wolf (hopped onto the ap thing before the guilty was outed)


i am very very very confident that he isn't maf, but not as strongly confident that he isn't a wolf. my hesitance about clearing him for being a wolf is significantly less strong than my suspicion of pine/nm, and i really can't imagine a universe where i vote him today.

In post 1824, skitter30 wrote:that was worded badly.

basically i really don't think he's ever maf here.

he probably isn't a wolf but i'm not as confident on that as on him not being a maf.

i am significantly more confident on scum in {pine/nm} than i am on him possibly being a wolf.

i'll probably go back and reread the ap associatives at some point to remind myself of why i was reading that so strongly


You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #1933  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:56 am

In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind :) With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.


See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.

I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

Pine
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Post Post #1934  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:26 pm

Sigh. Waiting for something resembling consensus. My mind is made up - Klick or no lynch. I will not be voting any other way.

skitter30
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Post Post #1935  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:27 pm

In post 1932, ceejayvinoya wrote:You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?


huh, i didn't remember making those posts lolololol, touche

--

In post 1933, ceejayvinoya wrote:
In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind :) With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.


See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.

I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.


i'm kinda concerned that it's mylo and he's posting elsewhere on site and not here and not like following up on anything

i specifically not-wolfread him tho for his plan tho, but it isn't super strong enough for me to clear him entirely. i'm fairly confident he isn't maf because of fumuki tho

and i'm fairly confident that you aren't maf because of pin

which means by poe pine has to be mafia (he is literally never flipping town here; the real question is if he's the wolf or maf and i'm ~90% that he's maf and i wish that you lot would have helped me lynch him yesterday)

Klick
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Post Post #1936  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:03 pm

I PMed the mod a while ago but I am going to have to replace out. I apologize.

skitter30
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Post Post #1937  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:09 pm

/sigh

Pine
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Post Post #1938  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:12 pm

/sigh too

@Mod suspend deadline and prod timer while the problem is fixed?

skitter30
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Post Post #1939  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:13 pm

i'm not entirely sure that the mod has checked the game since wednesday tbh, given that that's when the last vc was and klick said he pm'd the mod 'a while ago'

skitter30
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Post Post #1940  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:13 pm

i really want this game to be over already; it's been going on for like two months now

skitter30
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Post Post #1941  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:15 pm

like the simplest solution for me to end the game would be to just vote klick-slot given you and cj but that feels like throwing almost cuz idk if they're the wolf and i don't think i can vote someone in mylo that i'm not confident is scum just to end the game

skitter30
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Post Post #1942  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:21 pm

this game has frustrated me greatly

Pine
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Post Post #1943  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:50 pm

At this point I want the game to be over too.

I'm like 90+% on Klick!wolf, and *everyone* wants the wolf dead.

So just do it and let's move on.

Pine
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Post Post #1944  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:50 pm

VOTE: Klick

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #1945  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:59 pm

It's in everyone's best interest for wolf to get lynched today. Pine there thinks Klick is wolf and so do I. Trust us lols.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

skitter30
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Post Post #1946  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:04 pm

yes but at most one of you is town so trusting you doesn't seem like the best idea?

i really hate leaving the game unsolved and i hate feeling like i'm just giving up because i can't be fucked dealing with yet another replacement

like this feels like an even worse ending than those two games i got hammered as town in lylo while on v/la because i'm actively making a decision to try not to win it

but at a certain point i have to decide if solving this is really worth another two weeks or whatever and it really isn't; it's not fair to me or to you guys to do that, or to whoever replaces in

i just feel like i'm quasi-throwing tho :/

Pine
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Post Post #1947  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:16 pm

Here's where your reasoning breaks down - even if you think one of us is Maf, you'd still be willing to get rid of the wolf. Again, you're holding out for a different answer. Fine, I get it. But my refusal to do anything but vote Klick or NL means you're not getting that.

skitter30
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Post Post #1948  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:24 pm

i'm basically trying to decide if i should vote to my wincon which is probably voting for a no-lynch, which will make the endgame that much more painful given the replacement thing, or if i should just vote klick, which isn't really for my wincon i think but will make the rest of the game easier for the rest of us depending on what he flips especially given the lack of mod presence

i'm probably going to be voting klick because i don't want to drag this out but i have to basically talk myself into it because doing so feels wrong to me

skitter30
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Post Post #1949  (ISO)  » Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:34 pm

VOTE: klick-slot

i'm doing this to hasten the end of the game given the replacement thing and the mod thing

pine is scum

cj > klick

i reserve the right to say i told you so if/when i'm right

i don't think it's fair or right to drag this out another however long to any of the current players or to the theoretical replacement, as this game has been incredibly frustrating already thus far.

i apologize to town if this loses it

and this is literally the single-most unsatisfactory vote i have ever cast

cj if you're the wolf it should be hilariously transparent that i'm town and you win if you kill pine, and i'd rather you win than him tbh

also this is just a game so idk why this is bothering me so much

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