In post 579, Mathdino wrote:Like you seem like the kind of person that lynches people that I say are town being like "math you can't possibly have good reason to think UglyDuck is town"
And then blames the mislynch on the lynchee instead of taking responsibility for your reads
If I'm right, this is gonna be a long game
If someone is in my top 3 town, people lynching them have no knowledge of my reads accuracy
the kind of player i am is realistic. i think you do have okay reasons to townread uglyduck, i just disagree with them. and even if i did agree with them, i still wouldn't consider them actionable since meta can be very easily manipulated, both purposefully when you know you're playing with people who have seen your scumgame before, and incidentally by getting better at the game of mafia and by random life factors. i would never lock someone away as do-not-lynch purely on the basis of meta
even if i were doing a meta-analysis of uglyduck, what i see is a player who is capable. as scum he knows how to make himself seem like the victim. he knows how to look involved in game strategy, and he knows how to pick apart people's arguments logically. anything i might feel like townreading him for in this game, he has faked in past scumgames. the trap i'd say he falls into (in his past scum games as well as in this game) is classic egocentrism, where pretty much every post he makes is either about himself or his own reads/observations or responding to other people's reads of him. in his town games he spends more time trying to understand other people's points, asking them to explain and elaborate on their own thoughts, on things that aren't about him.
but hey, i could be wrong. maybe he is not manipulating anything and you do indeed see things that i do not see in ugly's past games that indicate he is town. that wouldn't be anyone's fault but my own. but surely you understand my perspective. i've lynched dozens of scum who very good players have sworn to me were town. so forgive me if my skepticism of your certainty comes off as condescension.
in addition, you must also understand that whichever lynch you redirect people to from uglyduck could be, as you yourself said, hilariously wrong. besides that, with only 5 days left in day 1, if the uglyduck wagon were to dissolve at this point we could easily be looking at an 11th hour compromise lynch on whichever player just happens to have low game presence at that moment. at least with uglyduck we are lynching someone with significant player interaction we can analyze, and someone whom a large number of players genuinely scumread, who will thus likely be a liability in the late game (if he does happen to be town).
all of this, to summarily respond to your post as well as UglyDuck's question above, is why i strongly disagree with dissolving the uglyduck wagon at this point. he is, both in my subjective opinion as well as in terms of objective game strategy, the best lynch.
