Open 730: Donner Party [Terminado]


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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:30 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 66, AP wrote:
In post 63, ejjinami wrote:MM and AP are most prob not in a team together.
@MM: It WORKED! You're a GENIUS! :P
:facepalm: UNVOTE: AP
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:31 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

Ignore what I said about him trying to confuse town... I think I'm the one who's confused right now lol
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:32 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 69, BlackStar wrote:My vote on MM is serious now
Elaborate.
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:34 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 71, BlackStar wrote:He's misrepping AP and trying to dissuade us from hypo claiming. Seems pretty anti town to me
Basically, I have a scumread and I have an opinion different of yours? :roll:

Usually, I townread this kind of behavior, because it doesn't look like a planned scum play, just a town who didn't think much before speaking *looks at blackstar*. I don't know about here. Could anyone tell me if it's a town or a scum tell here?
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 61, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 42, ejjinami wrote:
In post 6, LuckyOtter wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee
are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?
He was scum and I ended up listening to people instead of my gut.

Gut says AP is a good wagon.

VOTE: AP
In post 62, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 49, ejjinami wrote: Let's be frank, no one is gonna waste time reading through a killed dude's ISO just to look for "possible crumbs". And with the person dead it's all WIFOM anyways. Crumbing is most useful to those who are still alive and want others to believe their claim.
Mmmm I dunno, honestly you're probably right D2, but D3 I think I'd be more likely to go crumbhunting. I'm thinking crumbing is better than hypoing in this scenario but I have no experience with hypoing so take that with a grain of salt. I just feel like hypoing might lead to more WIFOM than necessary
Did you just entirely sheep my views lol?
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:37 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 64, ejjinami wrote:
In post 35, Korina wrote:
Votecount 1.1

Not_Mafia(2)
~
(4)
,
(2)

Marshmallow Marshall(2)
~
(2)
,
(1)

UnrealSeal(1)
~
(5)

ManateeDude(1)
~
(1)

ejjinami(1)
~
(7)

ceejayvinoya(1)
~
(1)

AP(1)
~
(2)



Not Voting (3): ejjinami
(0)
, Not_Mafia
(3)
, shizune
(0)


With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-10 19:45:00)
And btw, what do the numbers in the brackets mean? (the purple colored ones)
They mean that the person has X votes on him/her/it/that.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:39 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 72, BlackStar wrote:I'm not convinced in your argument against Sando. If you had something stronger, I'd consider it
Why are you asking for something "stronger" when we're not even 90 posts into the game? Which kind of case do you expect? VOTE: Sando
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:44 am

Post by LuckyOtter »

In post 79, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
In post 61, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 42, ejjinami wrote:
In post 6, LuckyOtter wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee
are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?
He was scum and I ended up listening to people instead of my gut.

Gut says AP is a good wagon.

VOTE: AP
In post 62, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 49, ejjinami wrote: Let's be frank, no one is gonna waste time reading through a killed dude's ISO just to look for "possible crumbs". And with the person dead it's all WIFOM anyways. Crumbing is most useful to those who are still alive and want others to believe their claim.
Mmmm I dunno, honestly you're probably right D2, but D3 I think I'd be more likely to go crumbhunting. I'm thinking crumbing is better than hypoing in this scenario but I have no experience with hypoing so take that with a grain of salt. I just feel like hypoing might lead to more WIFOM than necessary
Did you just entirely sheep my views lol?
Nah just looking for a good wagon. Yours is better. VOTE: Marshmallow Marshall
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 82, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 79, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
In post 61, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 42, ejjinami wrote:
In post 6, LuckyOtter wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee
are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?
He was scum and I ended up listening to people instead of my gut.

Gut says AP is a good wagon.

VOTE: AP
In post 62, LuckyOtter wrote:
In post 49, ejjinami wrote: Let's be frank, no one is gonna waste time reading through a killed dude's ISO just to look for "possible crumbs". And with the person dead it's all WIFOM anyways. Crumbing is most useful to those who are still alive and want others to believe their claim.
Mmmm I dunno, honestly you're probably right D2, but D3 I think I'd be more likely to go crumbhunting. I'm thinking crumbing is better than hypoing in this scenario but I have no experience with hypoing so take that with a grain of salt. I just feel like hypoing might lead to more WIFOM than necessary
Did you just entirely sheep my views lol?
Nah just looking for a good wagon. Yours is better. VOTE: Marshmallow Marshall
:shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty: :shifty:
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:26 am

Post by ManateeDude »

In post 76, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:Ignore what I said about him trying to confuse town... I think I'm the one who's confused right now lol
This just feels like a bad way to back away from their actions.

VOTE: MM
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:33 am

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 84, ManateeDude wrote:
In post 76, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:Ignore what I said about him trying to confuse town... I think I'm the one who's confused right now lol
This just feels like a bad way to back away from their actions.

VOTE: MM
http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthrea ... he-Smith-s

Convinced?
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:36 am

Post by ManateeDude »

In post 85, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
In post 84, ManateeDude wrote:
In post 76, Marshmallow Marshall wrote:Ignore what I said about him trying to confuse town... I think I'm the one who's confused right now lol
This just feels like a bad way to back away from their actions.

VOTE: MM
http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthrea ... he-Smith-s

Convinced?
I have and will always be terrible at meta reads.
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:00 am

Post by AP »

In post 70, ejjinami wrote:Can you elaborate on 53? Tbh I didn't get it either.
It simply slipped my mind that we also have a RB in play. I only played this setup once before, and I was talking out of my
arse
memory, so I stand corrected.

As for the GS, Sando already explained. Obviously you
can
consider the Dietician a "Cop" if you insist, but then consider the Vig to have a a "Miller" modifier. However, the wiki page for this setup opted to call the Dietician a Gunsmith for ease. I mean, why go through the longer and more complicated route describing the role if we're going to reach the same point (which is they get a positive result on all killing roles including the town's own)?
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:24 am

Post by AP »

I have an idea (which I think is good) to satisfy both those who are for the hypoclaim and those against it.

First and foremost, the GS does NOT need to claim, crumb or hint anything before D3. If they flip on D3 or later we should be able to tell whom they've cleared going through their ISO (If they had a guilty, wait for later..)

Now let's assume we have 3 kills from N1. One would be the SK's, one is the Mafia's and the 3rd is ours. Now w/o the need for someone specific to step forward and call for it, we simply assume the first body is confirmed Mafia (hypo assumption). We then each state whom we think their mos likely partner is and why.

Then we repeat for 2nd and 3rd bodies. now here's the catch: If the Vigilante did eat a Mafioso (they will know) we are giving them advice on whom to target on N2. The same also applies if the SK did (although obviously the SK wouldn't want to get both Mafioso's out of the game so quickly, unless they suspect they ate a PR and want to know which.. )

The Dietician will also be part of the discussion, and IF they have a guilty they could very well find a way to tie that to at least one of the hypo conf!Mafia of the 3 bodies. (this is still risky because they could be telling the Mafia/SK who the Vig is not knowing that what they have is a false guilty, and
this is why I don't want the Dietician giving out results too early
because if we're unlucky we are giving the anti-town powers not one but 2 PRs).

Starting D3 I think everyone can work out what's best. I mean, if there are only 2 kills on N2 and/or if the Vig manages to eat the SK or a Mafioso who had already eaten someone and they see that outing the alignments they know will help the town minimize the lynch pool then by all means they should tell us what they've got, but since that's another can of worms and there are way too many possibilities for me to detail here I am just leaving it at that. (and besides if I a, the Vig that shouldn't even concern you at this point because I'll be telling me what to do then) :P
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:26 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 88, AP wrote:I have an idea (which I think is good) to satisfy both those who are for the hypoclaim and those against it.

First and foremost, the GS does NOT need to claim, crumb or hint anything before D3. If they flip on D3 or later we should be able to tell whom they've cleared going through their ISO (If they had a guilty, wait for later..)

Now let's assume we have 3 kills from N1. One would be the SK's, one is the Mafia's and the 3rd is ours. Now w/o the need for someone specific to step forward and call for it, we simply assume the first body is confirmed Mafia (hypo assumption). We then each state whom we think their mos likely partner is and why.


Then we repeat for 2nd and 3rd bodies. now here's the catch: If the Vigilante did eat a Mafioso (they will know) we are giving them advice on whom to target on N2. The same also applies if the SK did (although obviously the SK wouldn't want to get both Mafioso's out of the game so quickly, unless they suspect they ate a PR and want to know which.. )

The Dietician will also be part of the discussion, and IF they have a guilty they could very well find a way to tie that to at least one of the hypo conf!Mafia of the 3 bodies. (this is still risky because they could be telling the Mafia/SK who the Vig is not knowing that what they have is a false guilty, and
this is why I don't want the Dietician giving out results too early
because if we're unlucky we are giving the anti-town powers not one but 2 PRs).

Starting D3 I think everyone can work out what's best. I mean, if there are only 2 kills on N2 and/or if the Vig manages to eat the SK or a Mafioso who had already eaten someone and they see that outing the alignments they know will help the town minimize the lynch pool then by all means they should tell us what they've got, but since that's another can of worms and there are way too many possibilities for me to detail here I am just leaving it at that. (and besides if I a, the Vig that shouldn't even concern you at this point because I'll be telling me what to do then) :P
I think that's the core of your post, but I don't understand it. How does it help anyone (out of scums) to do a random assumption that could be completely false? I'm not sure of getting the point of your plan here.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:59 pm

Post by Sando »

Happy with AP being town here. Only thing that gave me pause was the calling me out on GS vs cop and simultaneously getting the roleblocker thing wrong but after letting him respond to that his backdown was townie. Scum don't put themselves out there like this and especially don't theory-craft this hard.

I think decent chance of scum in ejj/MM, and I don't think they're scum together. 44 through 49 did not feel organic to me and I'm trying to put my finger on anything specific in there, it feels a bit buddying to me. They're both disagreeing with a hypo claim (which is fine to disagree with) using talk about whether the
cop
GS should claim or not if threatened with lynching (which is not a fine conversation, obviously they should and that has no bearing on us hypoing or not). They also both focus on the
cop
GS while ignoring the other PRs, who is the biggest threat to SK since no block there, and obviously a big threat to Mafia as well.

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I also prefer to TR in early days, based on an article written by Math I believe, and basically POE. My early day scumreads tend to be pretty bad, especially compared to my TRs.



AP I'm struggling to see the advantage of hypoing in the case of 3 kills. We've got a vig with a result we don't know and would like, but no way of confirming the vig without them outing themselves, and the setup is such that confirming the vig (them flipping in front of town) confirms their result as well (correct me if I'm wrong here). The only advantage I see of hypoing a 3 kill day2 is to then massclaim D3, if we don't get a vig claim we can narrow down their results. Vig getting eaten N2 onwards is a really bad situation for town though, I'm not sure any hypo on a 3 kill night is worth that risk.

Hence my talk about what to do in the case of 1-2 kills. Either the vig has a result that we'd like to have, or the RB stopped a kill and we'd like to know that, or the vig hit the SK and we'd like to know that, or two factions hit the same person and I don't think we can know that except by POE. My thoughts haven't fully percolated through yet, but I think we can potentially get enough info through to the GS+Vig to let them break the game open at least a little bit.
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:26 pm

Post by AP »

@MM/@Sando:

The hypo "2nd scum if X is scum" is just a way to provide the Vig with more leads IF they need it. I mean, if the Vig already made up their mind that's fine and there's no need to do it. However, let's assume I am the Vig (
again:
HYPOTHETICAL ASSUMPTION
merely to get the point across
). Now let's say I got lucky and nailed a Mafioso on N1. Now I'm stuck and I'm not sure where to go next, but I do TR someone and want their advice. The problem is I can't ask them for their advice because I'll be outing myself. So, I'm proposing everyone does that unprompted (which is actually now prompted if we do agree to it), and I will have got the advice I need from that particular someone I need it from
without having to ask and out myself
.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:28 pm

Post by ceejayvinoya »

Hi I'm back. :P

LuckyOtter not being very engaged in this game is bothering me. I think he could be likely scum here.

VOTE: LuckyOtter
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:30 pm

Post by ceejayvinoya »

In post 91, AP wrote:@MM/@Sando:

The hypo "2nd scum if X is scum" is just a way to provide the Vig with more leads IF they need it. I mean, if the Vig already made up their mind that's fine and there's no need to do it. However, let's assume I am the Vig (
again:
HYPOTHETICAL ASSUMPTION
merely to get the point across
). Now let's say I got lucky and nailed a Mafioso on N1. Now I'm stuck and I'm not sure where to go next, but I do TR someone and want their advice. The problem is I can't ask them for their advice because I'll be outing myself. So, I'm proposing everyone does that unprompted (which is actually now prompted if we do agree to it), and I will have got the advice I need from that particular someone I need it from
without having to ask and out myself
.
But why not just ask the guy who you tr on whos scum? It will look like youre just trying to read the guy, rather than asking for an nk target.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 90, Sando wrote:Happy with AP being town here. Only thing that gave me pause was the calling me out on GS vs cop and simultaneously getting the roleblocker thing wrong but after letting him respond to that his backdown was townie. Scum don't put themselves out there like this and especially don't theory-craft this hard.

I think decent chance of scum in ejj/MM, and I don't think they're scum together. 44 through 49 did not feel organic to me and I'm trying to put my finger on anything specific in there, it feels a bit buddying to me. They're both disagreeing with a hypo claim (which is fine to disagree with) using talk about whether the
cop
GS should claim or not if threatened with lynching (which is not a fine conversation, obviously they should and that has no bearing on us hypoing or not). They also both focus on the
cop
GS while ignoring the other PRs, who is the biggest threat to SK since no block there, and obviously a big threat to Mafia as well.

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I also prefer to TR in early days, based on an article written by Math I believe, and basically POE. My early day scumreads tend to be pretty bad, especially compared to my TRs.



AP I'm struggling to see the advantage of hypoing in the case of 3 kills. We've got a vig with a result we don't know and would like, but no way of confirming the vig without them outing themselves, and the setup is such that confirming the vig (them flipping in front of town) confirms their result as well (correct me if I'm wrong here). The only advantage I see of hypoing a 3 kill day2 is to then massclaim D3, if we don't get a vig claim we can narrow down their results. Vig getting eaten N2 onwards is a really bad situation for town though, I'm not sure any hypo on a 3 kill night is worth that risk.

Hence my talk about what to do in the case of 1-2 kills. Either the vig has a result that we'd like to have, or the RB stopped a kill and we'd like to know that, or the vig hit the SK and we'd like to know that, or two factions hit the same person and I don't think we can know that except by POE. My thoughts haven't fully percolated through yet, but I think we can potentially get enough info through to the GS+Vig to let them break the game open at least a little bit.
Same thoughts about AP alignment.

You misinterpreted the posts, then. We were not talking about that AT ALL lol, we were just stating it as an obvious everyone agrees on, and that's called a train of thoughts.

We're not even 100 posts in, I don't think it's useful to comment on the people who posted once or twice yet.

I guess Vigilante should claim if they hit a scum, and tell us the kills the scum has made in a case of 2 kills. What do you guys think about it?
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 91, AP wrote:@MM/@Sando:

The hypo "2nd scum if X is scum" is just a way to provide the Vig with more leads IF they need it. I mean, if the Vig already made up their mind that's fine and there's no need to do it. However, let's assume I am the Vig (
again:
HYPOTHETICAL ASSUMPTION
merely to get the point across
). Now let's say I got lucky and nailed a Mafioso on N1. Now I'm stuck and I'm not sure where to go next, but I do TR someone and want their advice. The problem is I can't ask them for their advice because I'll be outing myself. So, I'm proposing everyone does that unprompted (which is actually now prompted if we do agree to it), and I will have got the advice I need from that particular someone I need it from
without having to ask and out myself
.
Basically, the "hypoclaim" in this case is your thought about scum pairings? Because if you mean that everyone states who he thinks could be paired together, including dead people, this is a very good idea. I want that to be done, actually. Is it what you meant, or did I misunderstand hypoclaiming again? :?
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:37 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 92, ceejayvinoya wrote:Hi I'm back. :P

LuckyOtter not being very engaged in this game is bothering me. I think he could be likely scum here.

VOTE: LuckyOtter
Is he usually active? Could you, if you have those games, post the link to games he was in to allow us to know his meta?
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

In post 93, ceejayvinoya wrote:
In post 91, AP wrote:@MM/@Sando:

The hypo "2nd scum if X is scum" is just a way to provide the Vig with more leads IF they need it. I mean, if the Vig already made up their mind that's fine and there's no need to do it. However, let's assume I am the Vig (
again:
HYPOTHETICAL ASSUMPTION
merely to get the point across
). Now let's say I got lucky and nailed a Mafioso on N1. Now I'm stuck and I'm not sure where to go next, but I do TR someone and want their advice. The problem is I can't ask them for their advice because I'll be outing myself. So, I'm proposing everyone does that unprompted (which is actually now prompted if we do agree to it), and I will have got the advice I need from that particular someone I need it from
without having to ask and out myself
.
But why not just ask the guy who you tr on whos scum? It will look like youre just trying to read the guy, rather than asking for an nk target.
...which allows you not to out yourself as vigi. And allows you to read players.
Norweegian:
I'm changing your name to Marshal Zhukov after watching that video.
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Marshmallow Marshall
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Marshmallow Marshall »

VOTE: Mathdino I want more from you. You've been staying out of the discussion, as if you didn't want to commit. I think you're fairly experienced and all, so please step in and contribute.
Norweegian:
I'm changing your name to Marshal Zhukov after watching that video.
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Not_Mafia
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:41 pm

Post by Not_Mafia »

VOTE: MM
Also, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.
I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.
I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?
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