OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[Sando]

Trust me, it's not

No I'm agreeing with you that a vig that shot ruru last night should claim it.

[Skygazer]

Ohhhh gotcha

[the worst]

VOTE COUNT 2.5

Sando (0)

~

skitter30 (0)

~

AP (0)

~

Cardi B (2)

~ ofrhz, vulcan logician,

BuJaber (0)

~

Ausuka (0)

~

Skygazer (0)

~

vulcan logician (1)

~ OkaPoka,

ceejayvinoya (0)

~

ofrhz (0)

~

OkaPoka (0)

~

Enigma (0)

~

NOT VOTING:

Sando, skitter30, AP, Cardi B, BuJaber, Ausuka, ceejayvinoya, Enigma, Skygazer,

with 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

day one will end in (expired on 2018-08-05 09:00:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack

[skitter30]

ok i'm back, yay

going through things topically

==========

ruru's flip

given that she claimed pgo and flipped jk, there's several possibilities wrt to what happened last night. i think she basically claimed pgo in the hopes that scum wouldn't want to chance visiting her last night; and that a town!vig, if they existed, wouldn't have shot her

1. there's a town vig who shot her for claiming something they knew to false; in that case we seem to be missing the scum nk; in that case there's prob a doc who protected someone (and that person is mechanically prob town), or there's a rb who rb'd the killer (and that person is mechanically prob scum). if you're a vig who did this i think you ought to claim given that you're basically a vt at this point, and sharing your action would clarify what happened last night. if that happens and you're a doc you prob don't claim today (crumb somewhere maybe?). if you're a rb i'm not sure. you have a quasi-guilty but you prob get nk'd after you claim. need to think about what to do but i guess this is only relevant if a vig claims anyways so i'll think more about it if that eventuality comes to pass

2. scum have the pgo/vig slot and knew she was lying so just nk'd her since they knew she was town and prob had a strong pr, and knew that town prs were unlikely to protect her given the claim. also if scum had the vig i think they would have shot her and also nk'd someone else for two nks last night; that doesn't seem to have happened so that would imply pgo imo (actually now i think about it i suppose it's also possible that there is a scum-vig and a doc healed the nk or that one of two killers got rb'd; i don't know how we'd differentiate these cases from 1 above; if a vig doesn't come forward at all we'll know that this probably isn't a thing to worry about anyways).

either way if scum had that slot, they would have known she was lying. i think they would prob have tried to push her knowing that she was fake-claiming; the people who were pushing her early game before she (more traditionally) obvtowned are suspicious imo here, especially those pushing for a pl

3. scum don't have pgo/vig + town!pgo and/or town! vig exists (but didn't shoot her) - that would imply that scum thought she was a pgo but decided to risk it on the chance that she wouldn't activate - i think this is kinda unlikely given that scum had just lost a member; i feel like they wouldn't want to take a chance on this.

so i think in the absence of a vig claim it's probably the middle option, most probably that scum has pgo.

=========

i thought we were going to do hypo-innos today?

=========

Invisibility (8) ~ ruru, skitter30, Enigma, OkaPoka, Cardi B, ofrhz, ceejayvinoya, AP,

wrt to the vizzy wagon - there's very likely scum on that wagon imo; it went through way too easily and i'm sure scum would have wanted the towncred from bussing

wrt the votes on the wagon:

enigma -> i kinda like this vote actually; i kinda like the points he raised about vizzy. also he was coming back from being absent from the thread for a bit and he placed his vote on vizzy in a way that kinda kick-started the vizzy wagon; the wagon hadn't really taken off before he came back and i don't know if a partner returns to the thread and places a vote on a partner there when he could have voted like ... anywhere else

oka -> earlier in the game had scumread vizzy and was scumreading him for doing nothing and wanted to wagon him, then took him out of the lynchpool (to leave to tis/tks to sort) but when me + ruru started the vizzy thing he wanted to do ap or vulcan instead but then hopped on after enigma did. this kinda reads like he wasn't sure if he wanted to join the wagon but decided to hop on when it became a thing; this is kinda scum-indicative imo given the redflip

cardi -> kinda meh? in her catchup she quoted ofrhz saying that vizzy's behavior isn't ai and listed him as a maybe townlean a bit later on and then basically votes him as a pressure vote it seems in 786 ('if theres more to get from this lil dude I wanna see it.') i can see this as a bussing vote; i don't really see anywhere that she was scumreading him

ofrhz -> also meh. seemed to hop on since a wagon was happening and didn't seem bothered by the fact that one of his other major scumreads had just voted there like two posts before

cj -> basically naked l-1, but he had been telegraphing a scumread there for a while and this seems to kinda fit his playstyle tbh

AP -> that hammer without asking for a claim or anything was honestly gross but i think in this context it more likely than not comes from town? from 806 it seems to me that he conflated cj and vizzy and thought vizzy had placed himself at l-1 and like ... i don't know if scum confuses their scum partner with someone else? like the hammer itself was anti-town but i don't really think it comes from scum here given the redflip. he's also like very aware of gamestates and what his partners are up to in general and idk i don't think he forgets who his partner is tbh


=========

ok need to do things irl but i'm going to start going through this dayphase when i get back later

also need to go through vizzy's iso at some point

[AP]

3. scum don't have pgo/vig + town!pgo and/or town! vig exists (but didn't shoot her) - that would imply that scum thought she was a pgo but decided to risk it on the chance that she wouldn't activate - i think this is kinda unlikely given that scum had just lost a member; i feel like they wouldn't want to take a chance on this.

That's a good point. We've been discussing the matter as if the PGO was a passive ability in this game. It's not. The PGO has to activate on a specific night of their choice, and scum must've figured even if her claim was true she's unlikely to activate on N1. It's a bit WIFOMY, but I see your point.

[Sando]

Hey guys, I'm VLA for ~48 hours, gotta dash to NZ for work

[the worst]

Hey guys, I'm VLA for ~48 hours, gotta dash to NZ for work

TAKE ME WITH YOU......
noted.

[Sando]

Hey guys, I'm VLA for ~48 hours, gotta dash to NZ for work

TAKE ME WITH YOU......
noted.

To Auckland? Not exactly exciting

[the worst]

speak for yourself.... I've never been :0

[ofrhz]

I could see ceejay's initial ping vote and easy jump back onto the invis wagon as distancing.

Ofrhz also made that jump relatively quickly and

a decent chunk of their scum leans seemed to be lynch bait iirc

are you talking about cardi? what did you think of my case on cardi / do you have a read on her

[OkaPoka]

@ Okapoka

Well, Cardi is a bit unreadable, but Brassherald was a tad shady. Plus I believe that there was at least one scum on the Vizzy wagon. Remember, I'm all about making wagons to generate info this day cycle, and I said as much. I see where you're coming from waiting for her to check in, but I hardly see how my wagon on her is sus.

p-edit: SRing maybe Bujaber or Sando... a bit unable to find a definite scum read though.

What makes you inclined to believe that there is at least one scum on the wagon?

[ofrhz]

ofrhz -> also meh. seemed to hop on since a wagon was happening and didn't seem bothered by the fact that

one of his other major scumreads had just voted there like two posts before

uhhh tbh i was only on that wagon for pressure and wasn't super strongly scumreading invis (the only thing that pinged me about him was his reaction when he was asked why he was voting for lurkers and immediately unvoting them once they returned). i didn't think the wagon would get hammered so fast.

why would the bolded deter me from joining the wagon? especially considering a few of my strong townreads were already on that wagon, and there's always the possibility of bussing

[skitter30]

ok need to do things irl but i'm going to start going through this dayphase when i get back later

realistically this isn't happening today, apologies; i'll be around tomorrow at some point

[OkaPoka]

cj began the game being reasonable and stuff

now he is being quiet and not pushy and not generating much content
+scum killed ruru, a content generator

thus

VOTE: ceejayvinoya

yeah he l-1'd but whatever cj isn't pushing anything. his agenda appears to be xd lul which was invis' agenda just with a little more effort

[Skygazer]

are you talking about cardi? what did you think of my case on cardi / do you have a read on her

Cardi/Vulcan

I don't have a strong read on Cardi but for the moment she can be town?
Vulcan is likely town imo

[Skygazer]

Let's say hypothetically that for **reasons** that there's a 95% chance that there's scum in at least {Oka, Vulcan, AP, and Skitter}

Who would you all say is scum in that group?

[OkaPoka]

whats the point of this

[Skygazer]

ofrhz I think your case on Cardi was fine I guess (not really convincing but the case wasn't scummy); my brain is just all over the place rn

Oka the point of this is that I know things rn

for reference my answer to my above question would be AP

[OkaPoka]

why arent you voting ap then?

[Skygazer]

Still waiting for an answer to if someone town-vigged ruru

[OkaPoka]

@the_worst @mod

could u prod cardi b?

[OkaPoka]

are u going to go into detail about how u selected that pool?

[Skygazer]

I mean not right now. Maybe soon.

[Skygazer]

Scratch that, AP doesn't make as much sense in this case even if he's the scummiest in that pool.

VOTE: Skitter

[OkaPoka]

i mean how can anyone even react to that

do you want us to sheep you on faith? how does skitter even say anything with that vote and reasoning?