OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[BuJaber]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

why would he be a good lynch exactly

Because the below assumption assumes that Oka is town.
If Oka is scum then he could have said that stuff because he knows they didn't coordinate.

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

Assuming scum didn't pick the same numbers is still WIFOM-y though. Like scum can just pick two of the same numbers and use that to "prove" they're not scum together

True. But I also think scum would not want to gamble too much and lose their chance at getting a role. I feel that the positive utility of a power role should outvalue the need to avoid suspicion. You already have players like you who do not want to make this assumption, and even I who's making it cannot fully eliminate the recurring numbers from my scum pool throughout the game and will have to be flexible about this point.

I know I made the game delve deep into WIFOM, and some people don't like that, but I do enjoy it and the discussions itself help me. (I also do use WIFOM in scumhunting but just trust that when I do as town I am doing it in a way that I feel is helpful at the time and fully knowing the dangers of doing so. It usually works as a starting point for how to approach the game and then I delve deeper and test my assumptions with more objective analysis).

What made you first suspect oka, and then change your mind?

Your first vote clearly wasn't random if you needed a reason to change it.

When ruru in'd into this game, she made a long post in the queue thread explaining in detail that she would unequivocally pick 1 in the draft as either alignment. This part of the post has since been edited out

I think it's highly likely that scum knew ruru would pick 1 based on the picks (no one else picked 1 and no one picked 2, which I think is unusual) and because they could talk N0.

When oka voted ruru with his reasoning, I thought it was bad, because ruru had already stated plainly that she would pick 1 before she even got her rolecard.

But then I realized oka probably didn't see ruru's original post, and didn't have the knowledge that I think scum had.

Okay this gives a lot more context. I suppose though if ruru did roll scum it'd be a risk free way to shoot for the first pick chance. Especially that anyone that did read that would hesitate to pick no 1.


I think Sando might be scum here. That comment saying brass is right about him comes off as a disarming tactic.

VOTE: Sando

@Sando - what is CJ?

Pedit - erm.. I don't know what to do with that.. anyone have insight into the mind of ruru?

[ruru]

Last night I dreamt of San Pedro
It all seems like yesterday, not far away

[brassherald]

Last night I dreamt of San Pedro
It all seems like yesterday, not far away

Is this a response to my question, or a random comment?

[ruru]

Happiness is a warm gun
Bang bang, shoot shoot

[brassherald]

God, I hate this right now from ruru, but what's worse is that I think it's town because there is no scum motivation in it that I can think of. It's too obvious.

[OkaPoka]

But is there town motivation?

[ruru]

VOTE: OkaPoka

[BuJaber]

You know...
If she were scum pgo..

She'd probably play it the same way. The scum motivation is to do whatever you want when posting as you can see.

That said ruru, please if town use your limited time alive to share actual insight because I for one am pro-policy lynch for roles like pgo and miller etc.

[BuJaber]

Not today but definitely before mylo/lylo

[brassherald]

Not today but definitely before mylo/lylo

Agree on that, if her posting doesn't get better on later days, a PL is the way to go.

It's still Page 4(?) So, I'm more willing to give her some leeway to be a N_M clone.

[brassherald]

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

Wait, this can't be true.. Ausuka's posted?

[ofrhz]

Purposefully not going into details here, but I think I see the town motivation behind what ruru is doing. ruru is likely town

[AP]

VOTE: AP

No comments on anything else? Is that RVS or

What does it look like to you? A case???

[skitter30]

@duckling:

v/la on fridays and saturdays always :)

--

in before the mod pms us lets go

VOTE: ruru

scum has pregame chat and likely coordinated their numerical picks, having one scumbuddy go with number 1 would probably be a safe thing to do.

me + sando + ruru + duckling (+ maybe ofrhz? I don't remember) were talking about the optimal way to play the draft last week on discord (well before role PMs were given out) and she came to the conclusion that the best way to break the draft is to have a meta of always picking 1, as that way other people would avoid it so that they don't tie with you and that you get first pick as either alignment. she also made such a statement in her signup post in the queue

thus it's wholly NAI because she said she was going to do it before she got her PM

--

heha second post

VOTE: Oka

trying to drag us out of rvs so soon?

is that a bad thing?

--

VOTE: VulkanLogician

Tautologies must die

kinda surprised you didn't comment on the ruru-1 thing above?

--

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

i'm pretty sure that someone said that there was a recent iteration of this where scum did just that for the wifom. honestly not going to read too much into the draft because it's basically a mess of wifom that we have no way of conclusively untangling. like it can point in certain directions - 'i think it's probably unlikely that two people with the same number are scum together' is a fair statement, but completely ruling that out by 'safely assuming' scum wouldn't have done that on page 1 i don't think is such a good idea

--

VOTE: Skitter30

Highest number picked is a scum pick

nah i asked the mice and they told me that 42 was the answer to life, the universe, and everything, and i decided the perfect time to test what insights that number could offer me was in a game where i bid to get effective super powers as i try to lynch people

really cuz i figured i could hit that sweetspot of avoiding the glut of doubled-over or tripled-over numbers but where i might end up getting vt anyways - i def like playing vt best and this way i could achieve some sort of happy medium of making a reasonable effort at getting a pr knowing there's a decent chance i wouldn't

--

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

let's not

Is this how you normally are?

Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.

VOTE: ofrhz

i don't want to just dismiss your feelings out of hand but i kinda agree with ofrhz's sentiment and i don't think he said anything scummy here? like even if you think he was trying to dismiss and/or belittle you i'm not sure why you're finding that scummy and/or voteworthy?

--

Yes

My assumption is backed by reasoning.
If he/she is town who thinks my reasoning is flawed he/she could have argued his point of view.

He/she did not and simply disagreed

.

i'm still missing the part where you think this is *scummy*

--

You need to look at the individual people and decide whether they are likely to enact a plan where they pick the same numbers.

i think that the set of people who are likely to enact such a plan != the set of people who is likely to go along with such a plan because someone else on their team suggested they would

like i think i know ofrhz reasonably(?) well and i don't think he'd pick the same number as someone else unless there was a more experienced member of the scumteam who recommended that he do so; ie i don't think he'd do that on his own but he might if someone esle says he should

sando i could see doing this for the wifom

idk cj well enough to comment either way.

i guess what i'm saying is that if this happened people who may have suggested doing it may not actually be *in* the group of potential double/triple-numbers and we shouldn't limit this sort of analysis to just that group of people

--

Anyone got a link to that PYP where scum all picked the same number?

people were saying this was a thing? I thought it was 2 same - 1 different. i really can't imagine a scumteam picking all three of the same number because i think in most games that basically locks them out of getting any PRs at all. also agree that focusing too much on the draft prob won't lead to any useufl conclusions; i think while it can and should be a factor when forming reads play >>> draft

--

ODDLY FORMAL GREETING

EXPRESSION OF SURPRISE THAT A GAME ON MAFIASCUM DOT NET WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO START STARTED

EXCUSE FOR MISSING RVS

RVS VOTE

VOTE: AP

we're basically out of rvs here so i'm kinda surprised that you have nothing else to say beyond this

--

VOTE: brassherald

gut+if orhz is correct i guess my theory might be dead in the water

i'm kinda getting townpings from brass

--

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

i got kinda majorly dehydrated yesterday and am/was feeling kinda sick-ish

--

P

A

R

A

N

O

I

D

G

U

N

O

W

N

E

R

B

T

W

i am confused?

if you're PGO i'm not really sure why you would announce this unless you were trying to like purposefully not get visited. although if you're town i guess that's probably be the point

--

God, I hate this right now from ruru, but what's worse is that I think it's town because there is no scum motivation in it that I can think of. It's too obvious.

this is really, really out-of-character from town!ruru in my expereince. but i also can't imagine her doing this as scum; i don't think she has a high enough degree of confidence in her scumgame to play like this

--

yay real time

[AP]

Last night I dreamt of San Pedro
It all seems like yesterday, not far away

I didn't know you were a Ciccone!

[Skygazer]

heha second post

VOTE: Oka

trying to drag us out of rvs so soon?

is that a bad thing?

Nah my post was just throwaway rvs filler

[AP]

You know...
If she were scum pgo..

She'd probably play it the same way. The scum motivation is to do whatever you want when posting as you can see.

That said ruru, please if town use your limited time alive to share actual insight because I for one am pro-policy lynch for roles like pgo and miller etc.

Why would scum PGO claim PGO though? Isn't the idea to lure TPRs and have them killed??

[Skygazer]

UNVOTE: AP

[AP]

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

Wait, this can't be true.. Ausuka's posted?

Hushshsh! Ausuka is my scum p, so I didn't want to get her in the spotlight.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Bujaber

VOTE: Enigma

[Skygazer]

VOTE: BuJaber

Why do you keep calling for lynches so early?

[Skygazer]

Also the tone feels off when he tells Oka/ruru to town it up and contribute

[AP]

@Skygazer: Just a yes/no, please. Are you an alt of an existing MS user? Because the way you post doesn't strike me as a newbie at all.

[Skygazer]

Not an alt.

[ruru]

That's exactly what an alt would say

[Skygazer]

shh dont tell anyone