Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Jingle]

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

I'm not really following this part - why wouldn't town and mafia both just agree to a no lynch and end the game on a happily ever after draw (assuming Mime blocks mafia every night)? Why should we kingmake a mime win instead?

I forgot about the Mime block and thought a no lynch ended the game in mafia favor.

Still would hammer self votes because to my philosophy is that a tie is a loss, and I'd honestly rather lose to the mime team than the mafia team.

What do you think of 818 GL?

[Eragon]

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

this seems like the best option to me

I’m actually down with this, on one condition

If I die, ya’ll insta Thor

[GuiltyLion]

I mean I guess if you're the lylo townie and you wind up with other players crossvoting in LYLO, then it's either take a 50/50 to win the game or settle for the draw, in which case the 50/50 is probably the more appealing option

oh wait I'm stupid, if mafia votes mime then mime self-votes and wins so this isn't a problem

I don't think anyone has incentive to vote first in LYLO. mime definitely has no incentive to vote at all

[GuiltyLion]

What do you think of 818 GL?

I don't really follow 818 or how it contradicts 808

I think you're assuming mime tries to roleblock in the world where we lynch Thor whereas I believe Mime's best play is to not roleblock and assume mafia is killing Eragon

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Not Voting - Fink, Aristophanes, Thor665, Jingle, Guiltylion, innocentvillager, Eragon

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday, September 28, at 8:30PM EST

Innocentvillager is being prodded.

[Jingle]

What do you think of 818 GL?

I don't really follow 818 or how it contradicts 808

I think you're assuming mime tries to roleblock in the world where we lynch Thor whereas I believe Mime's best play is to not roleblock and assume mafia is killing Eragon

818 addresses why the mime should roleblock.

Assuming the case where the mime doesn't roleblock:

Mafia kills Eragon. We are now at 3v1v1. Mime has either a 1/4 or a 1/3 chance to stop the nightkill, depending on if we lynch. Mafia has the same odds of correctly shooting the mime, which they want to do. That means mime has a 3/16 or a 2/9 chance of outright losing the game (odds mafia hits mime and mime doesn't hit mafia).

Assuming the case that mime DOES roleblock:

Mafia attempts to kill Eragon. Mime attempts to stop mafia. Mafia has a 100% chance of correctly targeting. Eragon has a 1/5 chance of correctly targeting. Mime has a 1/4 chance of correctly targeting. (They know Eragon isn't the mafia.) That means mime has a 1/20 chance of autolose. Note, this is lower than the chance of autolose if they holster their roleblock, it's just an autolose to town instead of whichever faction plays better. If Mime successfully blocks, they allow one shot to hit Eragon the next night and then the game is nightless until either they win or lose. If Mime unsuccessfully blocks, it doesn't matter if Eragon has the same target as them, because then Eragon dies and can't tell us anything anyway. What does matter there is that it changes their 1/4 and 1/3 to 1/3 and 1/2. Which means, for the next day that mime has a 1/12 or a 1/6 chance at autolose. Much lower than the initial chances of 3/16 or 2/9. (Greater than 10% lower in the former case and greater than 5% in the latter.)

Simply put, holstering the shot increases the chance that mime loses to being shot by the mafia by more than the chance town wins off of a hail mary investigation. So mime has literally no reason NOT to take the chance on roleblocking mafia. Thor was just presenting the situation in a way in which the pro mafia choice of actions seemed like the pro mime set of actions when it really wasn't, but when one looks at the math it becomes obvious that that is the case.

[Thor665]

I think I'm still more active than most of the playerbase.
Probably means you should all vote 'no vote' roll over, and let me win because I'm the only one who cares about the game.
Also I've got a sexy beard, I'm hard to resist.

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle I may still not be following but if we no-lynch:

1) Thor is guaranteed to do the kill since he is outed mafia and sending the partner to anywhere but Eragon risks insta-loss for mafia team
2) Knowing this, Mime's only choice of roleblock would be Thor
3) If mime blocks Thor, then they risk being caught by Eragon (who frankly should just watch Thor to account for this scenario rather than take a chance watching anyone else) which leads to Mime insta-loss.

so I'm not seeing why you're looking at probability of mime roleblockling amongst other targets or Eragon watching amongst other targets. Just doesn't seem likely or rational

[GuiltyLion]

like I guess the only other possibility is Mime could roleblock Eragon for lulz? But that just helps mafia take shots at the mime, which doesn't make sense for mime.

[Jingle]

No, 818 is about if we lynch Thor. No lynching was always an alternative plan in response to 808. If mime is going to roleblock tonight (which I just explained why they should if we lynch Thor) then lynching Thor gives us the best shot. We're more likely to lose to the mime than if we no lynch, but less likely to lose to the mafia.

[Jingle]

I think I'm still more active than most of the playerbase.
Probably means you should all vote 'no vote' roll over, and let me win because I'm the only one who cares about the game.
Also I've got a sexy beard, I'm hard to resist.

Sadly, this is not an inaccurate representation of the situation. Unfortunately, your beard isn't sexy enough to prevent your lynch on the grounds that you shot a dancing Jesus, so you have to hang eventually.

And also, I very clearly care about the game more than your scumbuddy, so really your scumbuddy should just claim in order to hand me the win.

[Jingle]

If we no lynch, Eragon is 100% watching Thor. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mime faction.

If we lynch Thor, Eragon is 100% watching not Thor. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mafia faction. Additionally, we could have Eragon choose his watch target publicly to incentivize the mime to roleblock further (because a negative result from the watcher with no kill means that the person who got targeted by the watcher was not mafia, benefiting town), but given my previous post that shouldn't be necessary because strictly numbers wise, the mime wants to find the mafia TODAY when there is no risk of them being shot over tomorrow when there is a high risk of them being shot.

If we lynch for Thor's partner, Eragon is 100% watching Thor and unless he's incompetent (a trait Thor is not known for) Thor is shooting for the mime. This gives us a moderate chance of beating both factions and the only chance of Eragon surviving to LYLO, with the risk of instant loss to lynching the mime right now.

All three are viable courses of action, and I want everyone not named Eragon to weigh in on them before Eragon makes the choice, because that should give us information to look at to determine who is mime and who is mafia.

[Jingle]

Of course, IV is MIA and probably being replaced, Fink is V/LA (which should end today!) and Ari is due a prod, so... I'm stuck just clarifying for you until they come back.

[Jingle]

And now I'm going to stop spamming the thread, because really, trying to get my post count above Thor's is a horrible use of my time.

[Eragon]

If we no lynch, Eragon is 100% watching Thor. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mime faction.

If we lynch Thor,

Eragon is 100% watching not Thor

. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mafia faction. Additionally, we could have Eragon choose his watch target publicly to incentivize the mime to roleblock further (because a negative result from the watcher with no kill means that the person who got targeted by the watcher was not mafia, benefiting town), but given my previous post that shouldn't be necessary because strictly numbers wise, the mime wants to find the mafia TODAY when there is no risk of them being shot over tomorrow when there is a high risk of them being shot.

If we lynch for Thor's partner, Eragon is 100% watching Thor and unless he's incompetent (a trait Thor is not known for) Thor is shooting for the mime. This gives us a moderate chance of beating both factions and the only chance of Eragon surviving to LYLO, with the risk of instant loss to lynching the mime right now.

All three are viable courses of action, and I want everyone not named Eragon to weigh in on them before Eragon makes the choice, because that should give us information to look at to determine who is mime and who is mafia.

the bolded made me lol

[Aristophanes]

Of course, IV is MIA and probably being replaced, Fink is V/LA (which should end today!) and Ari is due a prod, so... I'm stuck just clarifying for you until they come back.

Forgot this game was a thing...I'll see what I can do. Might not be until Wed night tho unless I get an extra free moment unexpecredly.

[Jingle]

It's okay, Ari. We love you despite your lurkeryness. Come talk about me and who you think is mafia.

Also, for the record, Thor talking about how sexy his beard is while I'm proposing a plan of action involving setting up a player whose sole job is to stare longingly into Thor's eyes all night every night is at least as laugh worthy as what you bolded, Eragon.

[Eragon]

I mean, it was just funny

like, "if thor dies im 100% not watching thor"

[Eragon]

@Thor

Do you agree with that plan of action?
I feel it is the best way to confirm a win between either the mafia or the town, because if you kill me, there is no way you will find the mime until late game, and by then, it will be too late as your dead and then your partner will need to be king made over the mime.

If we no-lynch today, you take the kill, and I watch you, we absolutely confirm a non-mime win.

[Eragon]

If we no-lynch and you decide to kill me anyways, that makes it 3 v 2 v 1, and you would be lynched the next day
so going into the next night it would be 3 v 1 v 1
and your partner would have no proof on who mime is, just who might be, and as someone said, you could make a mime case on almost anyone and believe it.
so if mafia kills town again, thats 2 v 1 v 1, which are odds I would not like to take as mafia, having a 33% chance to instant lose.

On the other hand, we could ask the mime to claim right now, and we leash them until end-game, incase we need to Lynch them to prevent a mafia win.
this would confirm a mafia loss and/or give town a much much better chance to beat mafia if you kill the mime that would be king-made over you anyways

[Eragon]

so your choice is to either let me live and be able to kill freely yourself and have a good chance of winning

or have an almost confirmed loss.

the choice is yours

[Eragon]

@KMD

can we get a prod on Innocentvillager please?

He still hasn't picked up the prod I sent 12 hours ago.

[Thor665]

@Thor

Do you agree with that plan of action?
I feel it is the best way to confirm a win between either the mafia or the town, because if you kill me, there is no way you will find the mime until late game, and by then, it will be too late as your dead and then your partner will need to be king made over the mime.

If we no-lynch today, you take the kill, and I watch you, we absolutely confirm a non-mime win.

I've got no problem with that plan. It basically assures me of killing either a town or a Mime which benefits my wincon.

[Thor665]

Plus it will give me an extra day to keep my post count above Jingle's

[Eragon]

@Thor

Do you agree with that plan of action?
I feel it is the best way to confirm a win between either the mafia or the town, because if you kill me, there is no way you will find the mime until late game, and by then, it will be too late as your dead and then your partner will need to be king made over the mime.

If we no-lynch today, you take the kill, and I watch you, we absolutely confirm a non-mime win.

I've got no problem with that plan. It basically assures me of killing either a town or a Mime which benefits my wincon.

Coolio :3