Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Eragon]

So just a general question to the town

How is (Fink/IV/GL/jingle)

Any different from
(Me/Thor/Fink/Jingle/IV/GL)
?

Except for the fact that one has no confirmed town/scum and the other has one of each

What I'm saying here is,
If you lynch Thor
I obviously die tonight
Meaning your put in a scenario with the same people anyways as today
But. You'll have a harder time trying to figure out people you agree with, as 2 of them will always be scum

So I'm thinking that we should NOT lynch thor, maybe even no lynch, and let Thor shoot for the mime again

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Guiltylion, Eragon

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST

[Eragon]

if we Lynch today, and hit town, then we lose
IF we Lynch today, and hit mime, we lose, and so does mafia
If we Lynch today, and hit mafia, we win.

we are at 3 v 2 v 1, so we've already basically lost majority

a nolynch provides the least risk, and lets maf have more chance to kill mime
a Lynch is risky, but probably the only way we can win

[Eragon]

when is it gonna be harder to Lynch mafia?

when we have 6 people looking at a PoE of 4 people, with a confirmed town?
or

when we have 4 people, with everyone unsure bout everything

[Jingle]

GL if you could give a basic list of what you think and why

Not a huge time-consuming ISO shit

Just straight up a sentence or two in everyone except me/Thor and the most notable AI things you see

Waiting on GL before I talk about GL/Fink.

IV on the other hand:

innocentvillager replaces ldkldldldkdkdkdklllkkk

Straight upgrade.

you're going to be disappointed im super rusty and terrible at this game

Possible signaling, especially since no daytalk in this setup.

ope will get to this

sorry im pretty behind but basically i have no reads since sesq and a50 died and they were the ones i had reads on

VOTE: no lynch

whats going on in this game lol

Not town, especially given: viewtopic.php?t=77211&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

He had ten game relevant posts in one day in that game on the seventh. During the timeframe where he was "not caught up" here. He had no other obligations on site at the time. The fact that he hasn't been shot by mafia gives this huge credibility as a mafia player.

when is it gonna be harder to Lynch mafia?

when we have 6 people looking at a PoE of 4 people, with a confirmed town?
or

when we have 4 people, with everyone unsure bout everything

The answer to the question you wanted to ask is that they are equally unlikely, because both scenarios require the mime to vote a player who gives them an instant loss if lynched.

Our options today are: Lynch Thor, Lynch Mime (And lose), and Lynch town.

[Jingle]

I'm going to explore the option of no lynch now, because honestly I hadn't considered it as viable for today.

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

[Eragon]

Honestly I don’t see a scenario here where mafia doesn’t win if we don’t lynch today

[Eragon]

And f we lynch Thor the same thing happens tommorow

Except without the confirmation

[Jingle]

No Lynch: Night 2 mafia, 1 conftown, 2 town, 1 mime. 33% chance of hitting mime assuming absence of reads.

Hits town: 2v2v1. Have to Lynch Thor. 1v2v1 going into Night. Mafia has to shoot for Mime in order to win, Mime has to shoot for mafia in order to not die. 75% chance of HEA, 25% chance of 2v1 LYLO.

Hits mime: 3v2. Lynch Thor, Thor kills Eragon. 2v1 LYLO.

So in a no lynch we have a 7/36 chance of winning without taking into consideration reads.
Mafia has an 11/36 chance of winning without taking into consideration reads.
Mime has a 0% chance.
HEA is 50% chance.

Lynch Thor:

Shoot Eragon:

Kill Stopped: 3v1v1 with potential watcher results condemning specifically the mime. (1/3 for the kill stop, 1/4 for mime catch). Mime has a chance at winning, town has 1 lynch guaranteed and a second .
Kill Goes Through: 2v1v1: Probable HEA, possible 2v1 with no conftown. Mime can't win.

Shoot for Mime:

Kill Stopped: 3v1v1, same as above.
Kill hits town: 2v1v1, same as above but with a conftown. Probable HEA, possible favorable LYLO. Mime can't win.
Kill hits mime: 3v1 MYLO with conftown, same odds as a 2v1 with no conftown. Mime can't win.

No Kill (Also new to consideration):

3v1v1:
1/4 watcher outs mime. (Mime can't afford to no block)
Town has majority.

Not even gonna consider the Lynch Town option.

Mafia has the best chance of winning if we No Lynch. Town has a lower chance of losing to mafia if we lynch Thor. I'm way more interested in lynching Thor than no lynching.

[Thor665]

if we Lynch today, and hit town, then we lose
IF we Lynch today, and hit mime, we lose, and so does mafia
If we Lynch today, and hit mafia, we win.

we are at 3 v 2 v 1, so we've already basically lost majority

a nolynch provides the least risk, and lets maf have more chance to kill mime
a Lynch is risky, but probably the only way we can win

If I was to try to be totally honest - for town I would suggest the best play is actually to lynch someone who isn't me or Eragon, that would be a 1/4 chance to lose, a 1/4 chance to guarantee win, and a 2/4 chance to end up in a similar situation to a no lynch.
The best play for Mime is to lynch me today (Mime functionally cannot win without me dead).
The best play for Mafia is for no one to be lynched today (this also *might* be the best play for town, or at least a slightly safer way).

People should probably vote accordingly.
I'm assuredly plotting kills based around these thoughts.

[Jingle]

The best play for Mafia is definitely to lynch a town player today.
Lynching Mafia today remains nigh impossible.

The rest of that is fairly accurate.

The reason lynching mafia today remains nigh impossible is that there are 3 people in the thread whose win condition is invalidated by lynching non Thor mafia. One of them has to vote with town to get a hammer. Alternatively, if town runs up mime, mime will selfhammer. If town is run up, Thor will hammer if he is reasonably sure that the town player is not Mime. It's an extension of the logic of 2v1v1 leading to No Lynch. Attempting to lynch the Not-Thor mafia today probably just loses us the game, and is definitely the highest chance for scum to win outright.

[Jingle]

If I was to try to be totally honest - for town I would suggest the best play is actually to lynch someone who isn't me or Eragon, that would be a 1/4 chance to lose, a 1/4 chance to guarantee win, and a 2/4 chance to end up in a similar situation to a no lynch.

This is actually a 3/4 chance to lose and a 1/4 chance to win, FWIW, assuming that I'm wrong and it's even possible to lynch the Mafia player.

If we lynch town, we go to 2v2v1. With 2 Mafia. And the mafia can kill literally any player to win. Which means the mafia will attempt to kill Eragon and the mime will need to accurately guess which scum is making the kill as well as possibly needing to guess the identity of Thor's partner.

[Eragon]

oh.

yikes.

[Eragon]

forgot about this

IMO as I stand rn, we help mafia win if its impossible for town to win, as I feel they played good.
(I would have never guessed thor unless I caught him, and especially if the other mafia is jingle... they were easily the best 2 players)

if theres any way town can win, we need to explore that

[Eragon]

[Kmd4390]

Guiltylion is being prodded.

[Jingle]

forgot about this

IMO as I stand rn, we help mafia win if its impossible for town to win, as I feel they played good.
(I would have never guessed thor unless I caught him, and especially if the other mafia is jingle... they were easily the best 2 players)

if theres any way town can win, we need to explore that

I’m still not mafia. Very, very obviously. Thinking I am is starting to get insulting. Town doesn’t auto lose unless we lynch notThor today. If we lynch Thor, mime has to town side to have a decent chance at winning. And for mafia to avoid the draw they also are incentivized to town side.

Seriously, read my recent math posts and understand that if I wanted to win as mafia here I’d shut up and let Thor talk you into the course of action that gives mafia a literal fifty percent chance for the win.

[Jingle]

Oh, also we don’t win if we lynch not Thor mafia today. Thor shoots eragon because shooting anyone else might give town the majority. Mime lets it happen, because lynching Thor is a game loss there and if they stop the kill the game is over. 2v1v1 with an outed mafia is a HEA.

VOTE: Thor

Please, by all that is holy, let’s lynch the ever loving shit out of this. Mime will play to their only chance to win. Scum will play to their best chance to win. We might get stuck in a draw scenario, but at least we won’t be throwing the entire game away right now.

[Thor665]

Thor shoots eragon because shooting anyone else might give town the majority.

Nah, in that scenario I'd need Eragon alive in order to maximize my wincon.
Shooting him would assure my faction's loss.

[Thor665]

That said, the issue with lynching my buddy today is that the Mime's best play becomes blocking me even with Eragon alive and forcing the draw.

[Thor665]

Yeah, town's best chance still looks like leave me alive (which prevents Mime from blocking me) and pray I shoot Mime tonight.
If I don't town's best chance is a draw.
if I do then town gets to lynch me and play for the win versus my partner.

I still am looking at it and seeing lynching me today increases Mime wincon, but decreases town wincon.

[Eragon]

If we don’t lynch your partner we lose

I think it’s as simple as thay

[Thor665]

No - if you don't lynch anyone and I shoot Mime, you lynch me, my partner shoots town and then it's 3p lylo - which is literally the best town can hope for.
Every other option is town losing or town getting a tie unless you lynch my partner today.

Regardless, lynching me is not pro-town play.

[Eragon]

VOTE: No-lynch