Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Thor665]

Though, I'll admit I keep forgetting this, lynching my partner today actually just gets town into a 3v1v1 where Mime will always block me and I'll always be shooting at 'not Eragon' which will end in a tie. So, yeah, the gamble for lynching my partner ends in an assured tie if you hit him, Mime win if you hit Mime, or Mime/Mafia win depending on the result of my shot and the lynch tomorrow.

I think for town to win you have to both not lynch anyone, and pray I manage to shoot Mime tonight.
Everything else appears to be a tie or worse for town.

[Thor665]

VOTE: No-lynch

I think that's a smart play for town, even if it's still derp risky.

If you had the ability to control the scum shot - who would you shoot as your top Mime suspect?

[Thor665]

Frankly, all the remaining living players should probably be stating that regardless.
Kind of sad the Mafia is having to think of it. C'mon guys, I'm playing more pro-town than everyone but Eragon.

[Eragon]

VOTE: No-lynch

I think that's a smart play for town, even if it's still derp risky.

If you had the ability to control the scum shot - who would you shoot as your top Mime suspect?

well

i dont see GL as ever being mafia, and i dont

think

they are scum

IV is just a ??? player, so they could really be ANYTHING

Fink probably would have tried to get lynched yesteday as mime id assume, so he is probably mafia.
although i guess he did self-vote in LyLo?

Jingle couldn't have expected to be lynched this game, more likely to be NK'd, so thats not mime.

its between Fink/IV IMO

[Thor665]

Probably going to need to read them again.
Sorry I can't magically add you to my wincon if I hit town tonight.

[Eragon]

im sad too ;_;

even though i didnt really play a good "reads-game" and activity-wise i was bad, i was kinda just trying to flow under the radar until i found a guilty.

thAt guilty just came slightly too late to truly help :/

also, lynching mime D1 really screwed people's WIM

[Thor665]

Yeah, a Day 1 Mime lynch is pretty much a recipe to break this setup.
The Watcher trying to fly under the radar is at least justified play, and reads will be what reads are.
Yeah, if you'd pegged me a Day earlier it would have made the game a lot more interesting. I'm lucky it went down right when we zapped the Vig or I couldn't be dancing the dance I'm doing now.

[Eragon]

lol.

if only i didnt watch jingle for the first 2 nights ;_;

[Fink]

I don't want to make KMD prod me but I don't want to give any reads until GL posts.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Guiltylion

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST

[Jingle]

Though, I'll admit I keep forgetting this, lynching my partner today actually just gets town into a 3v1v1 where Mime will always block me and I'll always be shooting at 'not Eragon' which will end in a tie. So, yeah, the gamble for lynching my partner ends in an assured tie if you hit him, Mime win if you hit Mime, or Mime/Mafia win depending on the result of my shot and the lynch tomorrow.

I think for town to win you have to both not lynch anyone, and pray I manage to shoot Mime tonight.
Everything else appears to be a tie or worse for town.

Uh... This is wrong, but still functionally what I literally just explained a couple of posts ago. It's a 2v1v1. Because you shooting not town loses you the game in that scenario (town has three players, you're confscum) and mime blocking you loses mime the game (town has three players, mime loses if they lynch the confscum). Therefore Eragon dies, we no longer have any lynch capability or nightkill capability, and thus draw.

Our literal best case scenario at this point is to lynch Thor and have the mafia No Kill/get blocked tonight. 1/4 chance to lose. 1/4 chance to win. 1/2 chance to hope for the mime shot and move to a possible continuation, which might be made better by the watcher outing the mime.

Look at 1109. Seriously look at it. If we lynch Thor, the mime CANNOT no block because any successful night kill makes it literally impossible for them to win. Any successful block puts us into a position where we can lynch again, we have our confirmed town player, and the confirmed town player might be able to successfully out the mime. Our worst case scenario becomes HEA, our second to worst case scenario becomes a 2v1 LYLO, and our best case scenario is a repeat of today with a possible guilty and an actual town majority. This isn't rocket surgery. It's barely even brain science.

Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw. We can't possibly be 3v1v1 tomorrow. We are still incredibly likely to be forced into the draw. All we do by no lynching is remove avenues for our own victory.

[Jingle]

im sad too ;_;

even though i didnt really play a good "reads-game" and activity-wise i was bad, i was kinda just trying to flow under the radar until i found a guilty.

thAt guilty just came slightly too late to truly help :/

also, lynching mime D1 really screwed people's WIM

/oog

FMPOV your slips in gameplay this game were missing the PR soft target N1 and not townreading me (Which, admittedly, I might be biased about). Literally everything else you've done this game was fine playwise, and I had a worse fuckup on D2 than you did N1, so you really shouldn't feel bad about that assuming you mean what you said about me and Thor playing the best game.

I think that objectively Lane played the best out of everyone this game, and I kind of feel bad for the guy to have played so well and had the game win stolen from him. If I could posthumously add any player to the winning team it would be him, regardless of which team wins.

[Eragon]

im sad too ;_;

even though i didnt really play a good "reads-game" and activity-wise i was bad, i was kinda just trying to flow under the radar until i found a guilty.

thAt guilty just came slightly too late to truly help :/

also, lynching mime D1 really screwed people's WIM

/oog

FMPOV your slips in gameplay this game were missing the PR soft target N1 and not townreading me (Which, admittedly, I might be biased about). Literally everything else you've done this game was fine playwise, and I had a worse fuckup on D2 than you did N1, so you really shouldn't feel bad about that assuming you mean what you said about me and Thor playing the best game.

I think that objectively Lane played the best out of everyone this game, and I kind of feel bad for the guy to have played so well and had the game win stolen from him. If I could posthumously add any player to the winning team it would be him, regardless of which team wins.

That’s the thing.

Going PURLEY from play, you would be my strongest townread

But the fact that
1. No one visited you N1/N2, and you still haven’t died even though you are probably the best/second best player in this game is awkward IMO

[Jingle]

1. No one visited you N1/N2, and you still haven’t died even though you are probably the best/second best player in this game is awkward IMO

Okay. Addressed in 817.

Why would I be a likely target in light of:

Mafia should have been targeting for watcher, which I pretty obviously was not, or mime, which I pretty obviously was not.
Vig should have been targeting for mafia, which given your own admission that I'm town by play, would mean I'm an objectively bad shot.
Mime should have been targeting for mafia, which I pretty obviously was not.

[GuiltyLion]

GL if you could give a basic list of what you think and why

Not a huge time-consuming ISO shit

Just straight up a sentence or two in everyone except me/Thor and the most notable AI things you see

I think IV is mime and mafia is at like 65% Fink 35% percent Jingle.

IV read is straight POE, Fink did self-vote at deadline yesterday but I also think he was pretty desperate to push for my lynch or Jingle's instead first, so I don't think that was his long term goal. Jingle is not playing to get lynched

Fink's best case for town is his genuine sounding tone/frustration in some posts, though it's noticeably thick in others. And the self-vote is a really ballsy play as mafia in that position. However, he's pushed my slot all game for reasons I have argued against and cannot understand by any town perspective, and his associatives with Thor fit the profile of S-S, enough soft engagement to make sure you're not completely avoiding the slot but no real push or drive to interact with or sort whatsoever.

Jingle has been playing a town leader game and I thought his case for his own slot being town is mostly convincing. Fink never really adequately addressed it. He has pulled a couple odd reversals on what he thinks optimal game strategy would be, at times it feels like he's being manipulative, but I haven't really seen exactly how it benefits scum!agenda more than town!agenda at any step of the way. GTMH he's just awkward town

[GuiltyLion]

If we don’t lynch your partner we lose

I think it’s as simple as thay

yeah, this is how I'm seeing it. 4p (2v1v1) is autoloss if mime doesn't vote elsewhere. 4p (3v1) we have one shot. 5p (3v1v1) means mime knows who mafia is, so they're not going to go for that lynch and it requires all three townies to nail it.

[Jingle]

5p (3v1v1) means mime knows who mafia is

Actually untrue. If mafia no kills (a viable choice) it hits 3v1v1 without mime knowing who mafia is. The possibility that mafia no killed means mime can't be 100% sure that their block targeted mafia if we get to 3v1v1. It's unfortunately also why the watcher can't REALLY guilty a mafia in 3v1v1.

If we go hunting Thor's partner today, it's literally a 75% chance at a game loss for town in the best case scenario (mime gamethrowing).

[Jingle]

Lying as town to convince scum to use suboptimal nightplay is pretty much par for the course. Wanting to keep the conftown watcher alive as long as possible is also pretty much par for the course (as town).

Fink being not mafia isn't really a reversal. Lynching him yesterday wasn't really about him being the most likely mafia, but rather about him being the least likely mime and narrowing down the mafia suspect pool. My strategy there was pretty much: "Who would I mind losing to the least if it turns out they're a mime?" and then trying to get that slot lynched. Because the smaller the mime pool, the more likely mafia is to hit mime. I didn't convince myself Fink couldn't be mime, but on the other hand his self vote instead of simply shutting up right before deadline means he's probably not the mafia, especially as there was stated intent to hammer. As mafia, Fink would have no way of knowing that Ari wasn't going to be around to vote him, and his vote on himself made it so that he might be in insta-loss territory. Therefore, almost certainly not mafia, and if he is I'm not going to feel bad if he wins the game. Further, the post you said was sketchy actually makes perfect sense from town headspace Fink.

He *could* be the mime, but I already resigned myself to losing the game in the case that he is, either through a happily ever after or through lynching him yesterday.

This, btw, was my saved post.

[GuiltyLion]

eh I mean I could get behind that except that would mean I'm scum (from your 'town' point of view), soo there's something wrong there. Either you're making a case for yourself being scum or it's wrong.

I can see it being a gambit from Fink if he thought he was in instaloss already

[Jingle]

Fair point, in that if you're town and Fink is mafia I'm wrong in my reasoning. If you're town and Fink is mime then my reasoning is solid and the gamesolve is that IV is Thor's partner. If I'm wrong in my PoE I'm pretty sure it's between you and Fink anyway, and we can burn that bridge if we don't get locked into HEA. I don't see a world in which IV is town. My hope is that Occam's razor is right and Thor isn't shooting IV because IV is mafia, in which case I really don't care which one of you is mime. But the first step to solving that is to lynch Thor or no lynch.

I honestly don't see a situation where I end up having to choose between the two of you outside of functional LYLO, though, so it's fairly academic unless we hit functional LYLO.

BTW, Thor aggressively doesn't want a 3v1v1 LYLO because it massively reduces his chances for a win. Mafia not only have to lynch town in the 3v1v1, they then have to duck the watcher guilty while killing the mime and survive the ensuing LYLO w/ a conftown.

[Thor665]

Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw.

I need Eragon alive to help me catch Mime - my path to victory is shoot Mime (or be blocked by Mime and shoot him eventually), after Mime death i get lynched, then (and only then) have my partner shoot Eragon, and then win via lylo.
Please make sure you understand that.

[Thor665]

The only world where Mafia shoots Eragon is a world after I get lynched.

[Thor665]

Because, y'know, as long as I'm alive Eragon's power *literally has no negative to my team since I'm already outted and can always make the kill*.

[Kmd4390]

Innocentvillager is being prodded.

[Jingle]

Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw.

I need Eragon alive to help me catch Mime - my path to victory is shoot Mime (or be blocked by Mime and shoot him eventually), after Mime death i get lynched, then (and only then) have my partner shoot Eragon, and then win via lylo.
Please make sure you understand that.

Point. I'm not sure why, but I was thinking there was some utility in killing the watcher then the mime for a minute there. Still irrelevant to: Lynching thor means the mime has to use their power in the way both most likely to out them to town AND most likely to give town the advantage, while not lynching makes mafia the single faction most likely to win the game, despite there still being a large chance of a forced HEA.