Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Eragon]

Almost50 was killed Night 1. He was a

vanilla townie

Sesq was also killed Night 1. She was a

Vanilla townie

Day 2 starts now

Deadline is Wednesday, September 12 at 5:30pm EST.

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Sorry, didn't realize you were VT crumbing until superlate. 443 was super nice though.

This post is super weird, like "Lookie I realized they were VT so I def didn't kill them!"

Also What in God's Name is a Hypo Claim!?!?

spicy

[Eragon]

D1. votecount

Could it be as easy as fink/jingle?

lane0168 - 7 - Fink, Jingle,

Thor665

,

Eragon, Almost50, FA_Q2

,

lane0168

Almost50 - 3 -

Nero Cain, RockyHorror, Sesq

Sesq - 2 - innocentvillager, GuiltyLion

Not Voting - Aristophanes

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Not Voting - Fink, Aristophanes, Thor665, Jingle, Guiltylion, innocentvillager, Eragon

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday, September 28, at 8:30PM EST

[Thor665]

@Mod - "fake" v/la for the rest of the game, but let's be honest, literally Eragon is the only player I'm going to interact with today until I'm dead, so if I go quiet for a while it's 100% strategic and I shouldn't be penalized for that. Besides, who would want to replace me at this point

who do you think is mime?

Someone other than you and I.

[Thor665]

To clarify the above - you are basically asking me to try to help locate 1 team I'm playing against in order to aid a second team I'm playing against, and in offering a legit read all I'd be doing for both teams I'm playing against is narrowing the potential pool to find the one team I'm playing for.

Now, I *could* answer your question tricksily - and include my scumbuddy in any theory Mime discussion, and trollololol. But I actually don't like playing scum because I don't like lying, so it's easier to just, y'know, not try to help the two teams I'm playing against?

I mean, basically my buddy already has my (doubtless brilliant) thoughts. And unless the Mime finds them and locks them down with roleblock (or we get to lylo) there is no world where we are lynching my partner before the Mime dies, so it's actually anti-wincon to me to help town locate a Mime, much less to be honest about it, y'dig?

[Thor665]

Hell, in a certain sense with my death, the Mafia should be trying to shoot town for a day or two, yeah?
As long as no one is lynching and we control the kill that's pretty baller for my faction.

[Eragon]

To clarify the above - you are basically asking me to try to help locate 1 team I'm playing against in order to aid a second team I'm playing against, and in offering a legit read all I'd be doing for both teams I'm playing against is narrowing the potential pool to find the one team I'm playing for.

Now, I *could* answer your question tricksily - and include my scumbuddy in any theory Mime discussion, and trollololol. But I actually don't like playing scum because I don't like lying, so it's easier to just, y'know, not try to help the two teams I'm playing against?

I mean, basically my buddy already has my (doubtless brilliant) thoughts. And unless the Mime finds them and locks them down with roleblock (or we get to lylo) there is no world where we are lynching my partner before the Mime dies, so it's actually anti-wincon to me to help town locate a Mime, much less to be honest about it, y'dig?

I know, I was actually hoping you’d try to lie and inadvertently give away who your partner was
;-;

I wasn’t really expecting much

[Eragon]

So it’s a 2v5 next

I’m assuming you are killing me, so that’s a 2v4

Then nolynch

Then probably one more death

2v 3
Which is then when you nolynch and shoot to kill the mime
And hope you win the 1v3

[Thor665]

Well, currently it's 1v2v4
You'll lynch me - 1v1v4
Mafia will, yeah, shoot you because derp - 1v1v3 (unless Mime blocks mah partner, in which case it gets hilarious)
Then town has to no lynch and give Mafia another shot leaving you at;
1v3
or
1v1v2

In both cases town will probably no lynch again, leaving;

1v2
or
1v1v1

So, pretty much the game is set until lylo barring Mime roleblocking Mafia with town not getting any lynches.
Have fun with that

[Thor665]

At least if you get to 1v1v1 the Mime will without fail know who the Mafia is at that point unless they play really badly.
Oddly, at 1v1v1 basically town's best play is to just no lynch forever to try to force a three way draw, or to lynch Mafia and then no lynch forever to force a two way draw.
Hurm, mod may need to figure out his plan for that one.

[Thor665]

I don't fancy town's odds this game.
Literally looks like your best prayer is getting to 1v3 with the Mafia and then having a 33% chance to win.

[Eragon]

actually, if mime wants to win, they SHOULD be blocking the mafia

because if im not alive, then the mime wont be lynched because town wont be lynching for fear, and they have no good info to go off of

IF i am alive, i can try to find the mafia, and get them lynched, then its just up to the mime to get lynched, with getting lynched being the only way to die

[GuiltyLion]

but if the mime is blocking the mafia then you're only going to catch the mime and not the mafia, right? I'm assuming a roleblocked mafia won't show up as visiting another player

setup seems pretty silly lmao

[Aristophanes]

All of those posts are pretty valid.

I'm doing reading for class atm but I'll do a dive on Thor tn prolly

[Thor665]

actually, if mime wants to win, they SHOULD be blocking the mafia

because if im not alive, then the mime wont be lynched because town wont be lynching for fear, and they have no good info to go off of

IF i am alive, i can try to find the mafia, and get them lynched, then its just up to the mime to get lynched, with getting lynched being the only way to die

Literally you can't find the last Mafia (since they'll be shooting you), all you can do is clear people from being Mime or Mafia - which neither Mime nor Mafia want to happen.
If Mime roleblocks tonight, Mime is being really silly and risky.
If Mime blocks the kill tonight and then roleblocks the Mafia again the next night - Mime is basically playing against their wincon aggressively at that stage.

Optimal Mime strategy tonight is to not target anyone and let you die.
If Mime knows for a fact who Mafia is - their optimal stratagy is to start blocking them the night after you die.
The only reason to block tonight is to try to accelerate learning who the Mafia is (which is helpful) but at the added potential risk you watch their target and call them out to the Mafia which would create a good potential chance for town to win - but creates a functional no win for the Mime and the Mafia.

So I'd advise Mime to no target, frankly.
Though I admit that does help the Mafia wincon, it is also the only real path to Mime wincon as well.

[Eragon]

but if the mime is blocking the mafia then you're only going to catch the mime and not the mafia, right? I'm assuming a roleblocked mafia won't show up as visiting another player

setup seems pretty silly lmao

DAMNIT GL

[Jingle]

Okay, so plan A is shot out of the water.

Time to consider if a plan B works.

Currently we're at 4v2v1. After tonight that becomes 3v1v1.

I will 100% kingmake mime in 1v1v1, and any town player should do the same, mechanically speaking, therefore mafia needs to find the mime to win.

808 is valid with the exception that we definitely lynch in 1v1v2. We cannot win a 1v1v1 LYLO, but mime still has to pretend to be town in 1v1v2.

Alternative math to Lynching Thor.

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

We lynch NotThor today:

Lynch mime: Autolose. 20%
Lynch Scum: Autowin. 20%
Lynch Town: 3v2v1 going into night, with the same caveats as above. No point in shooting Eragon tonight, so they shoot for mime. 33% chance. If we lynch not-me town, that's a 50/50. Next day is either 3v2 with one conftown and one confscum, which becomes 2v1 LYLO, or 2v2v1. 2v2v1, mime needs to lynch Thor to win, so will vote with town. At which point scum needs to shoot the mime to not rely on town picking scum over mime (lolnope, explained below), and we have a 2v1 with a confirmed town.

Explanation of 1v1v1:

Mafia wins by lynching town or going to night.
Mime wins by lynching self.
Town wins by lynching mafia.

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

Pick this post the fuck apart, because I don't want to lose to a gap in my logic.

[Jingle]

Suspicions of me boil down to three things:

I'm still alive.
Why does Thor kill?
Bad associatives with Thor.

There's three reasons I'm still alive. I accidentally VT slipped on D2 in a way that mafia almost certainly caught, two I was an obvious watcher target for most of the game, and three I was very very clearly not the mime since pretty much the page I replaced in.

Assuming Thor made the kill because he was the less townread of the two assumes two things: 1. The missing kill was not due to the mime hitting the mafia and 2. The mafia weren't using their less suspect member to avoid the roleblock. If I had been scum I would 100% have been making the kills because I would assume I wouldn't get roleblocked. Again, because I was an obvious watcher target. In b4 WIFOM, but it's really not a difficult leap to make.

The associatives with Thor bit I really can't argue down, except to say that I don't think they're half as damning as you think they are when you step back from the red colored lens of me already being suspicious.

I'm so bleeding heart town in this game that it's actually kind of sad I have to make this post.

[Jingle]

Wait. Wait. Wait.

808 is wrong.

1v1v4 going into night.

Mime has a 1/4 to target mafia (eragon confirmed not mafia).

Eragon has a 1/5 to target the same mafia.

That's a 1/20 that we find the last mafia and win. In the case that that is true, we'd probably lynch the mafia over the mime anyway, so mime is already screwed.

On the other hand, there's a 4/5 that Eragon targets not the mafia. That's a 4/20 for Eragon to get a confirmed Not-Mafia. This leaves us with 1v1v4 with two people who can't be lynched. Mime has a 25% chance of being lynched there, but no chance of being shot, because mafia has to kill Eragon. We also can't no lynch for the rest of the game, meaning the mime can just stop the kill. This maximizes the number of times we have to lynch, which is 100% the goal of the mime. And almost certainly worth the 5% chance of both Eragon and the mime targeting mafia.

[Jingle]

Oh...

And as far as reads go, I could make a mime case for literally any one of the five and believe it. GL and Ari prolly not mafia.

Tell me again why IV isn't Thor's partner, cause the interactions look pretty bad FMPOV.

I think Fink might be a really good mafia choice, but I'm scared as fuck to lynch the guy who started the shift onto the mime off of No Lynch D1.

[Fink]

Need to do a big reread in light of the massive influx of information, but sadly I'm off to a wedding this weekend so I won't be getting to it.

V/LA until Monday

<- Noted

Also, we shouldn't be no-lynching into 1v1v1, anyone votes Mime -> Mime self-votes.

[Thor665]

I think as exposed Mafia I'm still going to have more content and posts today than most of the player set.
Almost makes me feel bad for the hand town was given in this game.
Almost

[GuiltyLion]

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

I'm not really following this part - why wouldn't town and mafia both just agree to a no lynch and end the game on a happily ever after draw (assuming Mime blocks mafia every night)? Why should we kingmake a mime win instead?

[GuiltyLion]

I mean I guess if you're the lylo townie and you wind up with other players crossvoting in LYLO, then it's either take a 50/50 to win the game or settle for the draw, in which case the 50/50 is probably the more appealing option

but if no one's voted yet then mime isn't going to want to lynch anyone and town/mafia want to lynch eachother but not mime, so if mime gets caught via town/mafia cross-voting then draw is confirmed at that point

it's kind of making my head hurt thinking about how that plays out prior to any votes

[GuiltyLion]

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

this seems like the best option to me