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Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:39 pm
by Flicker
Welcome to Open 735: Watchmen Wanted!

It is currently game over.

Players
  1. northsidegal
  2. Nauci (replaced Sesq)
  3. Huntress (replaced 2 718281828459, who replaced Saudade)
  4. Ausuka
  5. Toranaga (replaced Poseidon)
  6. Eragon (replaced Kop)
  7. Keyser Söze
  8. volxen
  9. the worst (replaced GameNBurger)
  10. Irrelephant11
  11. Dunnstral
  12. Reundo

Alive
Spoiler:
  1. Nauci
  2. Toranaga
  3. Irrelephant11


Dead
Spoiler:
  1. volxen, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 1
  2. Huntress, Town Backup, killed Night 1
  3. Dunnstral, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 2
  4. Ausuka, Town Backup, killed Night 2
  5. the worst, Town Backup, lynched Day 3
  6. northsidegal, Town Backup, killed Night 3
  7. Keyser Söze, Town Backup, lynched Day 4
  8. Reundo, Town Backup, killed Night 4
  9. Eragon, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 5


Events
Spoiler:


Replacement queue
Spoiler:
  1. 2 718281828459
  2. Eragon


Post-game links:
Spoiler:

PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:54 pm
by Flicker
General rules:

1. Follow all site-wide rules.
2. Discussion of ongoing games isn't allowed.
3. Don't encode, encrypt, or use any text that is too small, invisible, or otherwise hidden.
4. Don't edit your posts if you have that ability.
5. Don't use any form of provable randomness (like dice tags or screenshots of random.org).
6. Don't quote private communications from the moderator (or other players in private threads if you have access to any); paraphrasing is fine.
7. Breaking any of the rules may result in a warning. Breaking multiple rules, or the same rule multiple times, may result in being force replaced or modkilled.
8. I reserve the right to edit posts that break site rules. I reserve the right not to edit any other posts. If you accidentally scum, role, or alt slip, you have to live with the consequences.
9. Anything not covered by these rules will be decided based on my discretion. Just because I may have missed it, doesn't necessarily mean it's allowed.

Voting:

1. Use either bold (Vote: Flicker) or voting tags (VOTE: Flicker) to officially cast your vote. Unvotes are not necessary when changing your vote to another player.
2. Lynches are mandatory in this game, so plurality voting is in effect. In case of a tie at the end of the day, the person who was voted for most recently will be lynched.
3. If a majority of players vote for one person, that person will be hammered. Votes cannot be changed after that point, and the day may end early. Players can continue to post during twilight until I give the final day's vote count.
4. If no player has any votes at the end of the day, a randomly selected member of the town will die.

Player activity:

1. Players are expected to post at least one game-related comment every 48 hours. Failure to do so will result in a prod. 24 hours without posting after the prod, I'll start looking for your replacement. After three prods in one day phase, I'll also start looking for your replacement. If you post before I find a replacement, you might be allowed to continue playing, at my discretion.
2. V/LAs can be announced in thread or sent to me by pm. I'd also encourage you to set the V/LA banner in your User Control Panel. V/LAs will extend prod length to 72 hours and replacement search to 48 hours, but will not change the number of prods in a day before replacement.
3. Game days will last 14 real-world days; nights will last 48 hours.
4. Once you're dead, don't post in the game. If you want to say "bah," take it to the dead thread.

Mod activity:

1. I have a Monday-Wednesday-Friday class schedule this semester, with Mondays running into the evening. I will be restricted to mobile while on campus (I really don't want to explain MafiaScum to my school), which will reduce my timeliness in responding to activity.
2. Other than when I'm on campus (or sleeping), I plan to be fairly available and posting vote counts at or near the top of every page.
3. I plan to respond to questions in thread or sent to me by PM in a timely matter (ideally, within 24 hours). If you have a question or comment for me in the thread, please bold it and address it to me - @Mod or @Flicker are both fine.
4. I will try to unlock the thread for a new day in a timely matter (ideally, within a hour of night deadline expiring). However, I make no guarantees about the shortness or length of twilight.

PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:07 pm
by Flicker
Setup

The setup for this game is Watchmen Wanted.

In this setup, there are:
3 Mafia Goons
1 Town Watcher
8 Town Backups

The mechanics are:
- Daystart
- As soon the current watcher dies, a randomly chosen town backup will replace them.
- The town cannot no-lynch, as such, plurality deadline rules apply to lynches.

Sample Role PMs
Spoiler: Mafia Goon
Welcome, [Player Name]. You are a Mafia Goon, along with your partners, [Player Name] and [Player Name].

Abilities:

    Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partners here [QuickTopic link].
    Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill.

Win condition:

    You win when all members of the town have been eliminated or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Spoiler: Town Watcher
Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Town Watcher.

Abilities:

    Each night phase, you may choose a player in the game to watch. You will see which players target them (if anybody).

Win condition:

    You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Spoiler: Town Backup
Welcome, [Player Name], you are a Town Backup.

Abilities:

    If the Watcher dies, you might replace them.

Win condition:

    You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:10 pm
by Flicker
Roles have been randomized, and pms should be starting to go out shortly. The game will being when at least 10 players have confirmed.

Currently: 10/12! Day 1 starting soon...

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:49 pm
by Flicker
This morning, you woke up to find yourself clutching a small gold coin simply inscribed with "WW." You wonder where it came from, and what it could mean. Wonder Woman? Weight Watchers? You decide to take the coin with you through your day, thinking maybe someone else will know what the coin means.

Later in the day, you're moving through town and see something you've never seen before - an abandoned Wawa. You stop to take a look.

"Wait, isn't Wawa a billion dollar company? Why would there be an abandoned one?"

You hardly notice you've spoken aloud, but turn when someone else responds.

"Don't let the exterior fool you; it's real nice inside. Wanna come see?"

"No, thanks."

You've started idly fiddling with the "WW" coin without realizing it. The stranger glances at it.

"Well, if you change your mind, I'll be here."

The stranger tips their hat and disappears.

The next day, despite your better judgement, you feel yourself drawn back to the Wawa. You look through the front door and see a group of people - one of whom you (at least vaguely) recognize. You decide to go in and ask them what's happening.

"I'm here for the Watchmen Wanted initiative. I see you are, too."

You start in confusion, then notice you've been fiddling with the coin again.

"Oh, is that what this coin is for?"

"Sure is, friend," the stranger from yesterday responds. You don't know where they came from. "Now, let me tell you all about Watchmen Wanted..."

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:52 pm
by Flicker
Votecount 1.00

Not voting: Ausuka, Dunnstral, GameNBurger, Irrelephant11, Keyser Söze, Kop, northsidegal, Poseidon, Reundo, [Saudade], Sesq, volxen

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).

Mod notes
    - Saudade has requested replacement.
    - Kop has 48 hours to pick up his role pm and post or I'll start searching for his replacement.
    - Have at it! :]

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:09 pm
by Irrelephant11
Hi everyone
VOTE: Dunnstral
before lylo :wink:

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:13 pm
by Ausuka
hi :]

VOTE: Irrelephant11

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:45 pm
by Keyser Söze
Hello team. Let's find the 3 mafia goons.


I've found the first one:

VOTE: Saudade

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:14 pm
by 2 718281828459
VOTE: Irrelephant11

Because even if they are town, they are irrelevant anyway, so no big deal. As opposed to lynching someone who is relevant.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:18 pm
by Flicker
2 718281828459 replaces Saudade, effective one post ago. :P

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:50 pm
by Sesq
VOTE: keyser soze

because confusing o thing and furry

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:30 pm
by Poseidon
VOTE: 2718 for being a Thomas & Friends

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:57 pm
by Keyser Söze
Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:27 pm
by volxen
Hello all.

VOTE: GameNBurger

Because I like both games and burgers.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:58 pm
by Poseidon
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.


This will be my 2nd game with this account, and I can't say I've had this setup

I don't like lurkers, but they've proven to be TPR's in the past. :shifty:

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:59 am
by Sesq
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.


please Please townread me

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:51 am
by GameNBurger
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.


Here are my thoughts (atleast the ones that don't give scum an edge by talking about them)

So we start at an even number in this setup which is a bit awful since scum have a better change based on pure luck at winning in mylo as compared to lylo.

As far as claiming as fast as possible goes (which is what I assume hypoclaiming means, sorry I'm not 100% up to date on lingo):

So according to some maths IF the amount of mafia left is less than the amount of confirmed, than the odds of investigating scum is greater than the odds being killed as a watcher
Spoiler: Math Proof
Let Sucessful investigaion chance I = M/3T
where M= amount of scum
T= total players left alive

let chance of watcher Death D = 1/(T-M)

Ideally we'd like to prove a scenario where I>=D

Thus as long as (M-3)T-M^2>=0, I>=D
and if that makes a happy face Then the watchers will have an advantage that night


So optimally, we should behave and make decisions that make that inequlaity tip in the towns favor. Basically theres a lot of scenarios that could happen with that and I'm not in mood to give fodder thats useful to the wiki tonight

However I will be refering to the equation (M-3)T-M^2>=0 each day to weigh in on claiming decisions
obviously today that doesn't matter
Lets use this equation to see why, T=alive players total M=alive scum
T=12 M=3
-9>0
So we're in a pretty bad place right now,Its pretty unlikely watcher will find anything tonight
Obviously the best way you can egg the chances upwards is ticking away from the scum pile by claiming whenever you got a dead ringer

Actually looking at that equation I is never greater than D so really never claim until you get anything, especially since this is a watcher role and the non results don't give us any information that's helpful
Basically treat it like a slot machine, if you can get it to pay out at all then get off the train when it does
So generally speaking dont claim unless you got something sure

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:52 am
by GameNBurger
Also ignore the sentence above the spoiler, I did some bad math and forgot to delete the original (WRONG) conclusion

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:53 am
by GameNBurger
And I didn't emphasize this enough but (M-3)T-M^2>=0 Will NEVER check out unless T could possibly be negative

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:55 am
by GameNBurger
Hold up I forgot to factor in the fact that the watcher knows he's town

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:03 am
by GameNBurger
Corrected inequality and proof:

IF M <= 1 than I>D

where I = M/M(T-1)=1/(T-1)
and D = 1/(T-M)

So the likelihood of sucess for investigations is not dependent on the number of scum alive at all

and obviously the chances of his death are best staved off whenever M decreases

So the best action is still to just claim when you have a sucess and never anything else

Never claim for any other reason (other than saving your own ass atleast)

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:17 am
by GameNBurger
Also nobody dare TR me for that I did a bunch of shitty math only to come to the conclusion that its business as usual as far as claiming goes
in my last game a bunch of people town read me simply for effort and It blew my fucking minds as to why
I put up with it because I was town and people were having a hard time reading me but I'd like to get it out there that effort is not a one to one correlation with scuminess
a lack of effort is a good indicator of scum but a presence of effort does not indicate town

Anyways let that be a lesson to never do gametheory math late at night because youre bound to make idioitic mistakes, theres still a not great part of the stupidly simple model i used that doesn't account for the fact that T contains M in it, I should have broken it into P=t+M for more generalized use to make the death equation a bit easier to see the relationships

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:51 am
by Dunnstral
We end up at 4 people alive but 1 person is confirmed town (watcher) or there's a cc

So it's not worse

PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:42 am
by Keyser Söze
Thanks GMB, recommendations noted.

(And yes I agree, you don’t earn any town points from me).