Open 736: Diffusion of Power - Game Over


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Post Post #2300 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:52 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2299, CreativeMod1 wrote:Why not claim if you docced skitter?
because she's already cleared, so we don't need a doctor to confirm she was the NK target. The claim thus would only serve to expoase one more person for scum NOT to shoot tonight, thus narrowing the pool for them to shoot a N4/N5 Cop if in existence.

With Spoogh basically confirmed scum the Cop (if exists) is in skitter/NC/implo (not factoring in any clears or even reads). Everyone else is either dead or claimed.

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Post Post #2301 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:13 pm

Post by teacher »

VOTE COUNT 4.1 and Updates


Deadline:
Sunset
3:00am NYC on Saturday, October 27
, or
(expired on 2018-10-27 03:00:00)


With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.


PlayerVote TotalVote Identity
Almost500
Music and Mail0
Not_Mafia0
CreativeMod10
implosion0
Nicolas Cage0
Spooghetioso1Nicolas Cage
Skitter300


Spoiler: Votes since last votecount not reflected above
None.


Mod Notes
  • Skitter30 v/la Fridays and Saturdays generally
Last edited by teacher on Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #2302 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:43 pm

Post by skitter30 »

I checked rc last night and was informed he's town

Im pretty sure its just nc and was going to check him but i was weighing how annoyed i'd be if rc was actually scum and i didnt check him when i had the oppurtunity to do so

Im guessing i got docced last night, thanks; i wasnt entirely sure i was going to last long enough to use the cop shot.

I agree that if you're a doc who docced me you shouldnt claim, but if you docced anyone else and it could be clearing you should
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Post Post #2303 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by skitter30 »

VOTE: spooge

This should have been done yesterday but whatever
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Post Post #2304 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by skitter30 »

@mod shouldnt it be 5 to lynch with 8 alive?
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Post Post #2305 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:10 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2302, skitter30 wrote: I agree that if you're a doc who docced me you shouldnt claim, but if you docced anyone else and it could be clearing you should
Well, it doesn't really matter now. Either Implosion or NC protected you (and the other is the 3rd scum). A very distant 3rd possibility is scum F'd up and didn't submit a kill last night (probably to be able to fake having protected someone?).

Anyway, this game is in the bag. With you & RC both being confirmed I have no problem.

Spoiler: Mechanical talk (You may skip if you're not into it)
Spoogh is the 2nd scum, leaving only one scum out there. The chance of it being M&M is exactly 0% because that would mean skitter is TOWN and thus her result is accurate.
Similarly, the chance of that last scum being skitter is now 0% because CMod would have to be TOWN and thus his result is accurate.
Theoretically CMod could be that last scum who faked an inno on skitter and is riding it. That won't even come to play as a realistic proposition unless BOTH implosion and NC flip Town.
The same could be applied to N_M with one difference: He bussed to get Town cred and is riding it.
That same logic should also apply to >me< from everyone's PoV. Theoretically I could have been faking and riding it all along.

So, to sum it up: Both skitter & M&M are mechanically clear 100% of the time. Myself, CMod and N_M are not mechanically confirmed, but are close enough. Last scum should be between NC & implosion, and if that's the case the Town wins 100% of the time and this game is over.


VOTE: spoogh

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Post Post #2306 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:14 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@NC/@implosion: Is either of you claiming they protected skitter? Ok.. is either of you denying it?? ;)

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Post Post #2307 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:15 pm

Post by skitter30 »

Huh, if everyone told the truth the last night of power we had was last night pretty much, barring scum nk'ing last night
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Post Post #2308 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:24 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2307, skitter30 wrote:Huh, if everyone told the truth the last night of power we had was last night pretty much, barring scum nk'ing last night
That's IF you were protected last night. There is still a distant chance that the remaining PR is a N5 Cop or a N5 Doctor even, and scum just didn't shoot last night (yeah, that would be really bad play, but it's still a possibility).

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Post Post #2309 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:26 pm

Post by Nicolas Cage »

In post 2308, Almost50 wrote:That's IF you were protected last night. There is still a distant chance that the remaining PR is a N5 Cop or a N5 Doctor even, and scum just didn't shoot last night (yeah, that would be really bad play, but it's still a possibility).
Yeah I'm thinking A50 is last scum.
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Post Post #2310 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:33 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2309, Nicolas Cage wrote:
In post 2308, Almost50 wrote:That's IF you were protected last night. There is still a distant chance that the remaining PR is a N5 Cop or a N5 Doctor even, and scum just didn't shoot last night (yeah, that would be really bad play, but it's still a possibility).
Yeah I'm thinking A50 is last scum.
We'll cross that bridge when we come to it. Do you confirm or deny you had skitter protected last night?

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Post Post #2311 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:34 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In fact.. if you are a N3 Doctor just state your protection target. If not, so you ain't and that'd be it.

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Post Post #2312 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by Almost50 »

*say you ain't..

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Post Post #2313 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by skitter30 »

i mean if he's scum he's just going to say me so
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Post Post #2314 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:36 pm

Post by implosion »

So I have a long post written out, but ideally, before I post it:

Nick
: please claim.

We no longer have any reason not to massclaim, and I'd like nick to claim before me.
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Post Post #2315 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:38 pm

Post by implosion »

actually realized that it doesn't matter and i'm impatient so~~

With the result on RC I'm just going to claim that I protected skitter; if Nicolas Cage is in fact the last scum, then he already knows that I'm a doctor based on counts. If he isn't scum then it's irrelevant because there's no way scum are ever nightkilling either of us. So I'm pretty sure scum have no use for that info.

I also am impatient, and want to show off my god-awful horrible breadcrumb:
In post 138, implosion wrote:
In post 131, implosion wrote:
That looks almost physically impossible tbh. Not quite but almost.

Penguin, has your meta changed since that mini normal from like two years ago? Say no, please.
I'd like to further clarify that it is probably actually physically impossible. At least I think most people would agree.
Physically impossible, but almost physically possible -> the largest number of sides that can't be made into a physical die. You can make a D4 (a tetrahedron), but you can't make a 3-sided die, a D3, ergo night-3 doc. Most people would agree with this but you could argue that you can simulate it with a 6-sided die, or that you could just use a triangular prism. But those people are silly.

I was expecting skitter to be a cop as soon as I saw there was no kill; it's lucky that she's a n3 cop. This is because most likely, scum shot skitter because they knew there was only one doctor left unclaimed, and they were willing to risk the 1/3 chance of it being a n3 doc; this implies that she was a cop. There's probably no way they make that kill if Nick is an unclaimed town doctor; if he's an unclaimed town cop, then it's possible they make the kill, but in that case we have another cop shot to work with still. And in fact, we lynch spoogh today and no-lynch tomorrow, so it doesn't matter if he claims n4 or n5 cop. So no matter what his claim is I think we're in a rather fantastic spot.
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Post Post #2316 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:39 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2314, implosion wrote:So I have a long post written out, but ideally, before I post it:

Nick
: please claim.

We no longer have any reason not to massclaim, and I'd like nick to claim before me.
This is Town by tone. Nic really has nowhere to go now. (I'd blame it on luck and 2 good Cop choices, but it's over all the same). Surrender?

P-edit: I'll read that and respond if necessary

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Post Post #2317 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:40 pm

Post by skitter30 »

yeah i thought you were going to claim that

but in case nick didn't put it together yet didn't feel the need to spell it out for him
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Post Post #2318 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:42 pm

Post by implosion »

it's fine because it doesn't matter what he claims, because he either claims doc (in which case he is very heavily implicated by the logic that scum probably wouldn't have shot you with two unclaimed doctors), or he claims cop (in which case he will be forced to if scum/have the chance to if town, use his shot tonight or tomorrow night)
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Post Post #2319 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Like, I really don't get the crumb, and I'm wondering if it's because I'm half asleep or because I'm a non-English speaker.

But that's irrelevant. If you want "crazy" I would lynch NC today. Of course, the logical play is to lynch Spoogh first.

@M&M: Do you now see that it was a bad idea to lynch Gamma yesterday? *Sigh*

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Post Post #2320 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:50 pm

Post by skitter30 »

i think i wouldn't mind lynching nc today actually tbh

yeah and me claiming yesterday if there wasn't a legit n3 doc just leads to me getting nk'd; i think scum would think that n3 cop + conftown is a decent trade for lynching caught-scum spooge the next day
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Post Post #2321 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:52 pm

Post by skitter30 »

also i think your crumb is kinda cool
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Post Post #2322 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by implosion »

There's still no reason to lynch nc today. In the event he is town he could theoretically have a doc save that earns an extra mislynch or a cop shot that earns an extra clear. And we have confscum.
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Post Post #2323 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 2322, implosion wrote:There's still no reason to lynch nc today. In the event he is town he could theoretically have a doc save that earns an extra mislynch or a cop shot that earns an extra clear. And we have confscum.
I mean, you're right of course and it
is
the right thing to do. I was just suggesting I wanted another game like this one where lynching the "not guiltied" partner first resulted in the guiltied one surrendering overnight. I'm just that crazy sometimes, so don't mind me. :lol:

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Post Post #2324 (ISO) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:01 pm

Post by Almost50 »

@implo: If you're ready to end the day, please vote spoogh so N_M can have his fun hammering instantly! :lol:

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