Open 744 - Lovers and Losers [endgame]

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yessiree
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Post Post #625  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:10 am

yes the setup is theoretically townsided, EV should be 2/3 if following optimal strategy of lynching from VT claims (day one has 1/3 odds of hitting scum, and then day two 50/50 of hitting scum)

despite that though, I think this setup is susceptible to TvTs, and with any decent scum play, it would easily snowball into a town loss, which is kinda what happened here

volxen
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Post Post #626  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:30 am

Yes the setup seems townsided, since town has a straight up 2/3 chance of winning by just lynching two claimed VT's or two claimed town lovers (though I've explained numerous times already why it's much better to strictly lynch VT's only :D)

Unfortunately, we put our trust in the wrong VT, and that's why we lost. Can't win them all, right?

LolWagons
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Post Post #627  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:32 am

What? I’m always town. Every game. You can always trust me.

volxen
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Post Post #628  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:34 am

In post 627, LolWagons wrote:What? I’m always town. Every game. You can always trust me.


I THOUGHT I could trust you man, and then this game happened... :shifty:

Auro
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Post Post #629  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:37 am

It's not about trusting Lolwagons, lolol.
Between Bambi and Clem we had to choose which was scum. Our wrong choice there led us to eliminate Lolwagons associatively.
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volxen
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Post Post #630  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:42 am

In post 629, Auro wrote:It's not about trusting Lolwagons, lolol.
Between Bambi and Clem we had to choose which was scum. Our wrong choice there led us to eliminate Lolwagons associatively.


I meant our mistake was trusting LolWagons over Overkill and DongEmpire, since in the end we did *finally* lynch from the VT pool.

For me at least, it had nothing to do with Bambi vs Clemency, because regardless of which one of them was scum, I still thought LolWagons was town. That's why I didn't unvote Overkill after Muh voted for him. Because I thought Overkill could have been scum with either Bambi/Ruby or Clemency/Muh.

Auro
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Post Post #631  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:46 am

I was starting to get paranoid about Lol and wanted to grill 0ver first, however the "race" mechanic meant we had to lay down our vote ASAP so I had to rush it.

If I believed Bambi was scum, I'd not let Lolwagons off so easily, it was my firm belief in Clem being scum that led me to nearly "lock" there.
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LolWagons
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Post Post #632  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:48 am

Honestly I was really worried about Overk1ll coming in the thread and towntelling.

Then I would have had to convince clemency that if he thought I was scum with you two to vote you, which would have been a nightmare and would have sealed your scum read of me.

volxen
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Post Post #633  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:51 am

In post 631, Auro wrote:I was starting to get paranoid about Lol and wanted to grill 0ver first, however the "race" mechanic meant we had to lay down our vote ASAP so I had to rush it.

If I believed Bambi was scum, I'd not let Lolwagons off so easily, it was my firm belief in Clem being scum that led me to nearly "lock" there.


Yeah the fact that I thought we had to win the "race" really sucked, because it meant we couldn't give Overkill a chance to respond and defend himself.

volxen
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Post Post #634  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:54 am

In post 632, LolWagons wrote:Honestly I was really worried about Overk1ll coming in the thread and towntelling.

Then I would have had to convince clemency that if he thought I was scum with you two to vote you, which would have been a nightmare and would have sealed your scum read of me.


But logically this wouldn't make sense for town!you to argue for, because if you were town in this game the only thing you could have been 100% certain about was Overkill being scum. So it wouldn't make sense for you to be arguing for lynching a claimed town lover pair after we already lynched a claimed VT on day one. But yes, if you had made that argument we would have been certain of you being scum, and then we could have appealed to Clemency and Muh to vote for you.

volxen
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Post Post #635  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:57 am

@Auro, remind me again why you thought Overkill could be scum only with {Clemency, Muh} but not with {Bambi, Ruby}?

Auro
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Post Post #636  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:03 am

In post 635, volxen wrote:@Auro, remind me again why you thought Overkill could be scum only with {Clemency, Muh} but not with {Bambi, Ruby}?

I didn't care for that -- Overkill could be with both, I eliminated Lolwagons being with Clem/Muh for sure. (Which I was correct on) :P
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BBmolla
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Post Post #637  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:10 am

Is the setup much improved if 2/3 mafia are lovers and the other is a goon?

On phone so can’t do math, will in the morning.

If that’s scumsided, try having a scum lynch publicly reveal a town player of the lynched mafia’s choosing in the opposite group.

I’ll do calculations tomorrow.

yessiree
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Post Post #638  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:17 pm

Don't you think it's too early to be making changes to the setup.

LolWagons
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Post Post #639  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:06 pm

The mafia just has an outsized role in the beginning as I said. Add to that no clears and no investigative PRs and it’s probably an accurate demonstration of how often mob rule works.

Maybe do 2 Town lover pairs, 1 scum lover pair, 2 VTs, 1 Goon, and two lover masons. Give mafia a night 1 kill.

Or something like that. The problem is no clears and early outsized scum influence. To fix the setup you have to fix that.

Ruby Red
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Post Post #640  (ISO)  » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:46 pm

In post 638, yessiree wrote:Don't you think it's too early to be making changes to the setup.

i mean despite how this run went i think this setup is just hard broken for town

all it takes is literally one unambiguous townread for a guaranteed win for town – in this playerlist we got lucky with a tvt and with wagons being able to look towny, but in another playerlist with just one player who's obvtown it's an entirely different story

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