Open 744 - Lovers and Losers [endgame]

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Michael Scott
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Post Post #600  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:31 am

I think Clem's major initial fallacy which led him to the shit-tunnel was misconstruing my proposal of a townsided strategy as "getting the town to follow me"; I couldn't care less who we were lynching within the VTs as long as we did lynch 2 of the VTs, guaranteeing a 66% win at random.
His unwillingness to account for this and having absolutely zero logic make his play excruciatingly annoying and bad.

Bambi playing anti-wincon aligns perfectly with her town meta.
Clem playing anti-wincon, I thought didn't -- that was my major mistake this game, but I'll not repeat this again.

Clem was the Toby of this game~

Clemency
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Post Post #601  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:33 am

holy fuck its post game
you can stop drawing your own misconstrued narratives now
Everything I do is spectacular. It's a curse.

Michael Scott
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Post Post #602  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:42 am

Image

:P

Clemency
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Post Post #603  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:44 am

next time please play town to your win-con
Everything I do is spectacular. It's a curse.

Clemency
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Post Post #604  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:45 am

there's no jester in this game
Everything I do is spectacular. It's a curse.

Michael Scott
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Post Post #605  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:46 am

Image

volxen
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Post Post #606  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:08 pm

In post 603, Clemency wrote:next time please play town to your win-con


Lynching within the claimed VT pool IS playing to town wincon. Lynching within the claimed town lover pool is always going to make it more difficult to win as town. It was explained and proven why it is the optimal strategy multiple times and by multiple people (even scum!LolWagons accurately explained why it is the optimal town strategy).

From the get go {Michael Scott, Mcqueen}, {Bambi, Ruby}, {Clemency, Muh} should all have been OFF the lynch table. Day one should NOT have been about whether we should or should not lynch Michael Scott. The entire game should have been devoted to sorting between LolWagons, DongEmpire, and Overkill, but that didn't happen. If everyone would have agreed to that much, then time wouldn't have been wasted on trying to get our slot lynched, and all of the VT's (including LolWagons) would have been more heavily scrutinized than they were.

Way too much of this game was about our Michael Scott slot, and there was not nearly enough analysis of the VT's.

Elsa Jay
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Post Post #607  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:27 pm

This game can be solved 2 ways. Hanging 2 VT claims or 2 Lover sets. Bambi and Clem picked the latter becauce Michael rubbed them the wrong way and tried to never be scumread because he claimed to be a lover, focusing only on the VTs. I don't see the problem there from the town perspective.

mcqueen
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Post Post #608  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:37 pm

yo what. I literally posted once

Bambi Jay
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Post Post #609  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:04 pm

Because the game went supa dupa fast, yo. You didn't post for 2 days but that didn't even get you prodded because we ended it before you came back.

Welcome to a micro game with 9 or less players.
Yes, I'm related to Elsa Jay. No, we aren't the same person, she is a thot. I'm pure and full of positive energy.

volxen
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Post Post #610  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:35 pm

In post 607, Elsa Jay wrote:This game can be solved 2 ways. Hanging 2 VT claims or 2 Lover sets. Bambi and Clem picked the latter becauce Michael rubbed them the wrong way and tried to never be scumread because he claimed to be a lover, focusing only on the VTs. I don't see the problem there from the town perspective.


From Bambi's scum perspective this made complete sense. If she would have succeeded in getting us mislynched on day one, day two would have been a 4:3 town:scum ratio, which means there is no margin for error for town on day two (i.e., all four remaining townies MUST vote scum on day two to win). I don't fault Bambi at all for trying to get us mislynched, it 100% makes sense from a scum perspective, and it was a good play on her part. I'm sure Auro feels the same way -- neither of us fault scum!Bambi for anything that she did in this game.

What doesn't make sense is for a townie to strongly push for the strategy of lynching from the claimed town lover pool. As was pointed out many, many, many times during the game, if a VT rather than a town lover pair is mislynched on day two, then there is a 5:3 town:scum ratio on day two. That gives the town that buffer of still being able to win even if one townie votes with scum on day two.

With a 4:3 ratio on day two, 4/4 (100%) of the townies must correctly identify and vote for scum. With a 5:3 ratio on day two, only 4/5 (80%) of the townies must correctly identify and vote for scum (and get that person up to four votes first and wait out the deadline). Objectively speaking, it's easier to reach consensus among 80% of a group than it is to reach consensus among 100% of a group. And that is why, objectively speaking, lynching strictly from the claimed VT pool is the optimal strategy that maximizes towns chances of winning in this setup. Period.

The argument isn't that "town can't win if we lynch 2 claimed town lovers". It's that it's a sub-optimal strategy (I would call it an outright bad strategy) that simply reduces the chances of town winning the game.

Yes, we get it; Clemency was hard scumreading us, and that is why he pushed for our lynch. But he also knew that one of the three claimed VT's had to be scum, and we would have liked to see him put much more emphasis there. He didn't need to townread us to agree with us on the proven optimal strategy of lynching strictly from the claimed VT pool.

The irony here is that Auro and I had a bad read on LolWagons, but we favored and stuck with the optimal strategy of lynching within the claimed VT pool. Clemency had a good read on LolWagons, but he favored the sub-optimal strategy of lynching within the claimed town lover pool. If he didn't fight us on the strategy, that means he would have been pushing scum (LolWagons) on day one instead of us.

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Post Post #611  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 6:53 pm

i'll admit the fact that i let my emotions take the best of me somewhat
Everything I do is spectacular. It's a curse.

yessiree
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Post Post #612  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:44 pm

In a 5:3 you’d still need 5 votes to lynch someone meaning all towns need to vote together as well. So it’s still the same whether you lynch from VTs or lovers

volxen
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Post Post #613  (ISO)  » Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:51 pm

In post 612, yessiree wrote:In a 5:3 you’d still need 5 votes to lynch someone meaning all towns need to vote together as well. So it’s still the same whether you lynch from VTs or lovers


In a 5:3 you need five votes to pull off a "proper" lynch with a hammer, yes. But what I was getting at is that with a 5:3 split, you could run into the situation where 4/5 of the townies have correctly identified scum, and 1/5 of the townies is going to be voting WITH scum (because they don't have good reads). So the game then becomes a 4 vs 4 race -- the four townies need to get scum up to four votes before the three scum and the other townie get a townie up to four votes. For example, if day 2 ends with these two wagons in a 5:3:

Scum A (4) - Townie A, Townie B, Townie C, Townie D
Townie A (4) - Scum A, Scum B, Scum C, Townie E

As long as Scum A got up four votes first, scum still gets lynched on day 2 even with one of the townies voting for another townie because of the plurality lynching rule. The four townies simply get scum up to four votes first, and wait out the deadline. But if the ratio is 4:3 on day 2 rather than 5:3, one townie voting for another townie will outright cost town the game (because the three scum will vote for that townie as well and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer).

You still have to win the race to get four votes on scum first, so it's not the ideal strategy unless it's absolutely necessary. Obviously, if you can get all of the townies to vote for scum and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer, that is optimal as opposed to waiting out the deadline for a plurality lynch. But nonetheless, 5:3 gives town that buffer that allows them to still win even with one townie voting for another townie at EOD on day 2. This buffer can never be achieved in a 4:3 though, and that's why having that 5:3 ratio instead of a 4:3 ratio on day 2 is a significant benefit to town that can potentially impact the outcome of the game.

Aside from all of that, a secondary benefit of 5:3 is just the fact that you have that extra townie around on day 2 to help gamesolve, discuss reads with, etc.

Clemency
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Post Post #614  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 7:18 am

^he's right
Everything I do is spectacular. It's a curse.

LolWagons
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Post Post #615  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:06 am

I’m glad y’all are friends again.

Clemency, always enjoy playing with you. Can’t wait to play with the MS hybrid in the future.

volxen
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Post Post #616  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:52 pm

Yeah, day 2 was really hard from our POV because of the whole "race to get 4 votes" thing. I legitimately thought that the only way town would ever win on day 2 was to get Overkill up to four votes before either our slot or LolWagon's slot got up to four votes. So it was a double-edged sword in that it was the only way I thought town could win, but at the same time it made it easy for scum to quickhammer. I did not think it would be possible to reach consensus among all five townies, which is why I aggressively tried to get {LolWagons, Ruby, and Mcqueen} to all vote for Overkill at the beginning of day 2. See, the only thing I really felt confident about was LolWagons being town -- that was the biggest mistake Auro and I made in this game. In the thread here Auro and I publicly talked about {Clemency, Muh} being scum a lot, but we actually talked privately in Discord about {Clemency, Muh} vs {Bambi, Ruby} quite a bit. We both felt Bambi's play here was closer to her town meta than Clemency's play was to his town meta, but I never felt 100% certain that Bambi was town either, and I definitely did not feel that anything she did here was outside of her scumrange.

And I actually did catch the "scumslip" from Ruby where he said that he found both our slot and Clemency's slot towny. But I thought it was possible that he legitimately had not read through the thread, and didn't realize that Clemency and our slot were both from two different town lover pairs (and thus we could not both be town from his POV if he were town), or that he simply misunderstood the mechanics in terms of how this game works (i.e., that 2 scum would be fakeclaiming a town lover pair and 1 scum would be fakeclaiming VT).

But on day 2, I was really concerned initially that this situation might have happened in terms of wagons:

LolWagons (4) - {Clemency, Muh, Overkill, Bambi}
Overkill (4) - {Michael Scott, LolWagons, Mcqueen, Ruby}

or

Michael Scott (4) - {Clemency, Muh, Overkill, Bambi}
Overkill (4) - {Michael Scott, LolWagons, Mcqueen, Ruby}

Then Muh voted for Overkill, which was definitely one of the most surprising twists in the entire game. Unfortunately, Muh voting for Overkill did not change my townread of LolWagons. It simply convinced me that the scumteam was {Bambi, Ruby, Overkill} rather than {Clemency, Muh, Overkill}. So I still felt that I needed to keep my vote on Overkill because I was concerned that one of these two wagon situations would happen:

LolWagons (4) - {Bambi, Ruby, Overkill, Clemency}
Overkill (4) - {Michael Scott, LolWagons, Mcqueen, Muh}

or

Michael Scott (4) - {Bambi, Ruby, Overkill, Clemency}
Overkill (4) - {Michael Scott, LolWagons, Mcqueen, Muh}

This was a really fun and interesting game though. Thank you @yessiree for modding. And Merry Christmas everyone! :D

0verki11
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Post Post #617  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:09 pm

Sorry for being less active than I should of been, you probably should of waited before quuckhammering me without posting though.
LoL played really well and as town leader, and I shoulnt of trusted them as much as I did.

Elsa Jay
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Post Post #618  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:10 pm

Oh, so the scum lovers should have waited huh.

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Post Post #619  (ISO)  » Tue Dec 25, 2018 10:31 pm

In post 617, 0verki11 wrote:Sorry for being less active than I should of been, you probably should of waited before quuckhammering me without posting though.
LoL played really well and as town leader, and I shoulnt of trusted them as much as I did.

I don't think it would've mattered, actually -- I think Clem's vote was on us so scum could've quick voted. Clem was always going to vote us, anyway, so it didn't matter what we did.

I wanted to keep you alive, however the "race2vote" thing robbed us of time and we were forced to lynch quick.
Show

yessiree
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Post Post #620  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:14 am

In post 613, volxen wrote:
In post 612, yessiree wrote:In a 5:3 you’d still need 5 votes to lynch someone meaning all towns need to vote together as well. So it’s still the same whether you lynch from VTs or lovers


In a 5:3 you need five votes to pull off a "proper" lynch with a hammer, yes. But what I was getting at is that with a 5:3 split, you could run into the situation where 4/5 of the townies have correctly identified scum, and 1/5 of the townies is going to be voting WITH scum (because they don't have good reads). So the game then becomes a 4 vs 4 race -- the four townies need to get scum up to four votes before the three scum and the other townie get a townie up to four votes. For example, if day 2 ends with these two wagons in a 5:3:

Scum A (4) - Townie A, Townie B, Townie C, Townie D
Townie A (4) - Scum A, Scum B, Scum C, Townie E

As long as Scum A got up four votes first, scum still gets lynched on day 2 even with one of the townies voting for another townie because of the plurality lynching rule. The four townies simply get scum up to four votes first, and wait out the deadline. But if the ratio is 4:3 on day 2 rather than 5:3, one townie voting for another townie will outright cost town the game (because the three scum will vote for that townie as well and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer).

You still have to win the race to get four votes on scum first, so it's not the ideal strategy unless it's absolutely necessary. Obviously, if you can get all of the townies to vote for scum and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer, that is optimal as opposed to waiting out the deadline for a plurality lynch. But nonetheless, 5:3 gives town that buffer that allows them to still win even with one townie voting for another townie at EOD on day 2. This buffer can never be achieved in a 4:3 though, and that's why having that 5:3 ratio instead of a 4:3 ratio on day 2 is a significant benefit to town that can potentially impact the outcome of the game.

Aside from all of that, a secondary benefit of 5:3 is just the fact that you have that extra townie around on day 2 to help gamesolve, discuss reads with, etc.


The scenario you described with racing to 4 votes is certainly possible, but unlikely

think about it, assuming massclaimed has happened so you have 3 claimed pairs and 3 vts, and you all chose to lynch from the vts. We know for a fact there is one goon in the vts and two goons in the lover pairs.

one VT is lynched.
Now there are 2 VTs and one goon in this pool. So naturally the VT claims will cross vote, that'd be 1:1
Now, the remaining 6 votes are held by 3 pairs of lovers. If we assume the lovers vote together in the same place, you'd never end up with 4 votes on someone, you'd always end up with 3:5 or 5:3. You would most likely end up in the scenario where votes are 3:3 split, and the deciding factor is a town lover pair

volxen
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Post Post #621  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:51 am

In post 620, yessiree wrote:
In post 613, volxen wrote:
In post 612, yessiree wrote:In a 5:3 you’d still need 5 votes to lynch someone meaning all towns need to vote together as well. So it’s still the same whether you lynch from VTs or lovers


In a 5:3 you need five votes to pull off a "proper" lynch with a hammer, yes. But what I was getting at is that with a 5:3 split, you could run into the situation where 4/5 of the townies have correctly identified scum, and 1/5 of the townies is going to be voting WITH scum (because they don't have good reads). So the game then becomes a 4 vs 4 race -- the four townies need to get scum up to four votes before the three scum and the other townie get a townie up to four votes. For example, if day 2 ends with these two wagons in a 5:3:

Scum A (4) - Townie A, Townie B, Townie C, Townie D
Townie A (4) - Scum A, Scum B, Scum C, Townie E

As long as Scum A got up four votes first, scum still gets lynched on day 2 even with one of the townies voting for another townie because of the plurality lynching rule. The four townies simply get scum up to four votes first, and wait out the deadline. But if the ratio is 4:3 on day 2 rather than 5:3, one townie voting for another townie will outright cost town the game (because the three scum will vote for that townie as well and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer).

You still have to win the race to get four votes on scum first, so it's not the ideal strategy unless it's absolutely necessary. Obviously, if you can get all of the townies to vote for scum and achieve a proper lynch with a hammer, that is optimal as opposed to waiting out the deadline for a plurality lynch. But nonetheless, 5:3 gives town that buffer that allows them to still win even with one townie voting for another townie at EOD on day 2. This buffer can never be achieved in a 4:3 though, and that's why having that 5:3 ratio instead of a 4:3 ratio on day 2 is a significant benefit to town that can potentially impact the outcome of the game.

Aside from all of that, a secondary benefit of 5:3 is just the fact that you have that extra townie around on day 2 to help gamesolve, discuss reads with, etc.


The scenario you described with racing to 4 votes is certainly possible, but unlikely

think about it, assuming massclaimed has happened so you have 3 claimed pairs and 3 vts, and you all chose to lynch from the vts. We know for a fact there is one goon in the vts and two goons in the lover pairs.

one VT is lynched.
Now there are 2 VTs and one goon in this pool. So naturally the VT claims will cross vote, that'd be 1:1
Now, the remaining 6 votes are held by 3 pairs of lovers. If we assume the lovers vote together in the same place, you'd never end up with 4 votes on someone, you'd always end up with 3:5 or 5:3. You would most likely end up in the scenario where votes are 3:3 split, and the deciding factor is a town lover pair


I don't think as a general rule it's reasonable to assume that both members of a town lover pair will usually vote the same way. The main difference between a VT and a town lover pair is that the latter is more informed than the former -- they know of one person (their partner) to be 100% confirmed town. That doesn't mean they will be reading other slots the same way that their partner is reading them, and thus may vote differently from their partner.

In the case where town follows the strategy of lynching from the claimed VT pool, the two partners may simply disagree on day 2 over which one of the remaining two VT's is scum, and therefore the two partners will each end up voting for a different VT. If Overkill had been the VT scum in this game rather than LolWagons, I think the "race to get 4 votes" scenario that I described in post is very likely to have played out in the manner that I described.
Open 750: Forest Fire is now in confirmations!!!

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yessiree
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Post Post #622  (ISO)  » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:27 am

lovers voting differently in lylo. yeah it can happen, but it's also bad play. But perhaps the setup is flowed to allow it to happen? Perhaps they should be allowed private chat at all times to avoid situations like this? but would that be too much in town's favor?
it's reasonable to assume town lovers's strength is somewhere between neighbours and masons. but this is a nightless setup so it's tricky

Also I really can't imagine the game day getting dragged on to the deadline with the votes staying stagnant (4:4) throughout...

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Post Post #623  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 29, 2018 3:36 pm

Here is a link to the Michael Scott and Mcqueen town lover PT: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=78156

BBmolla
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Post Post #624  (ISO)  » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:58 pm

In post 568, yessiree wrote:GGs to all. Mafia played well and stayed coordinated. I thought town lacked a protown voice, which would have really helped.

This was an experimental run to see if a 3 member mafia lovers setup can be ran as a micro open. Evidently it can’t. The search for longevity in lovers setup continues... or perhaps the genre fits more natually in blitz

Anyway, thanks for playing everyone. This game couldn’t have had worse timing for me. A series of events led to me starting the game while my flight was literally on the runway about to take off. Ive been modding this game on my phone ever since (glad thats over and done with)

I remember the setup being flawed at the start

I haven't read the whole game, what seems wrong with it? It looks like mafia won but the setup was townsided iirc?

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