Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[brassherald]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.

Oh, good call. I messed up.

I don't think I'm going to try my hand at being Dr. Strange again.

Hard claiming no time stone.

[brassherald]

4-2-2 is a day start ratio, so 3-2-2 cannot be day again unless no lynch is hammerred.

Oh, good call. I messed up.

I don't think I'm going to try my hand at being Dr. Strange again.

Hard claiming no time stone.

Spoilers if you have not seen Infinity War, I guess.

[BuJaber]

Another way to think of it is we want to get to 4-2-1.

A50 is supposed to be good at this sort of thing. If you can convince me no lynch gives us the best chance at 4-2-1 I'll agree to it.

But from the brief numbers I ran in my head, and assuming nobody throws, lynching mafia is the best bet.

[rosterfoster]

I have some maths skills. I made a tree for myself but I don't think I can upload it. Thing you need to remember is that probabilities going along the tree are multiplied (the events are assumed to be independent, which is a dubious assumption for a mafia game but I'm going to assume random lynches and kills).

I don't have time to calculate everything, but if we lynch today probabilities for tomorrow are (T-M-W). I'm not including seer claims because that gets too time consuming:

3-3-2 - 28.6%
4-2-2 - 42.9%
5-1-2 - 8.6%
5-2-1 - 7.5%
4-3-1 - 12.5%

If we no lynch, then probabilities for tomorrow are:

4-3-2 - 62.5%
5-2-2 - 37.5%

From 4-3-2:

2-3-2 - 22.2%
3-2-2 - 44.4%
4-1-2 - 11.1%
3-3-1 - 12.7%
4-2-1 - 9.5%.

Those are the numbers I believe. I could calculate the EV but it would take ages. If you add 3-3-2 to 4-2-2 then it's more likely to get this type of scenario through lynching than through not lynching.

[rosterfoster]

So I think this supports no lynch.

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

sweet okay

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

what's no lynch at

[ajfefijsleifjsa]

actually can someone (preferably in hydra) confirm roster's math

[Almost50]

Another way to think of it is we want to get to 4-2-1.

A50 is supposed to be good at this sort of thing. If you can convince me no lynch gives us the best chance at 4-2-1 I'll agree to it.

But from the brief numbers I ran in my head, and assuming nobody throws, lynching mafia is the best bet.

I suppose the easiest way to prove it is .. Assuming No Lynch, the only way to get to 4-2-1 is by lynching a WW tomorrow (WW can't be killed at night), so this is the first probability we calculate.

I will now have to make another assumption that I have accurate reads on 4 slots (Vedith/roster are Town, and Bambi/Auro are mafia). This leaves a pool of 5 (Egix/BuJ/mcqueen/brass/hydra) for the Seer to check in with a 40% chance of landing a guilty. WAIT! That is ALSO ASSUMING the SEER is in me/Vedith/brass, because if the Seer is in that pool then they have a 50% chance of hitting a WW assuming I have perfect reads on the other 4 slots.

I'll go with the 40% (the lesser of the two). So 60% of getting a clear? That leaves a pool of 4 for us to lynch from tomorrow with a 50% chance of lynching a WW. So, the total chance of lynching a WW tomorrow is 40%+30% = 70%

The chance of WWs shooting Mafia tonight is 3/8 (I will stop at that because if true I don't really need to limit their hit on the following night to Town. I don't mind if we get to a 5-1-1 instead of a 4-2-1. Do you?)

So, 26.25% if we assume they hit a Mafioso on N2, plus (5/8)*(7/10)*(3/7) = 18.75% if we assume they hit Town on N2, provided they hit Mafia on N3.

Total = 45% probability

If the Seer is within Egix/BuJ/mcqueen/brass/hydra this probability goes considerably higher (50% chance of a guilty, and 66.66% of lynching a WW in the case of a clear).

My only problem with all this is that the Seer will have to out on D3 regardless, and I would rather them only out if they have a guilty (or if they have THREE living innos on D4). I haven't actually calculated the probabilities for them to be alive by then though, as I wanted to do that hypo claiming thing and I suppose only Auro went for it.

I'll start: If I was the Seer I have an innocent on Auro.

[Almost50]

what's no lynch at

3 I think. Myself, roster and Vedith?

[brassherald]

And my axe!

VOTE: No lynch

[Almost50]

VOTE: No Lynch

I actually don't remember if I revoted NL after having switched to mcqueen

[Gamma Emerald]

Votecount 2.1

No Lynch (4): rosterfoster, Vedith, brassherald, Almost50
mcqueen (2): Bambi Jay, Auro
brassherald (2): "Antihero", Egix96
Bambi Jay (1): BuJaber

Not Voting: mcqueen
Day 2 ends in: (expired on 2019-03-04 11:50:00)

NL takes 5 votes fyi

[Auro]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Vedith]

Ha I was jester all along.

[BuJaber]

How would those numbers be any different if we lynched Bambi?

Those numbers assume the seer is alive tomorrow, that Bambi is mafia, and therefore that Bambi is not the seer.

If we lynch Bambi or we no lynch the seer has to survive the NK anyway. The odds of the seer living and getting a guilty are the same in both choices if we assume (which you did) that neither the wolves nor the seer will target Bambi at night.

So really all that no lynch does is protect the mafia.

And considering how desperate you seem to be to associate auro with Bambi as mafia while advocating for NL points to you being mafia actually.
Get no lynch now, hope the seer gets a guilty, which would force remaining WW to shoot Bambi, and then you push your auro case to get him lynched, resulting in what would be 3-2-1, unless auro is WW, then it's 4-2 nightless.

[Vedith]

No lynch already happened though.

[brassherald]

And this no lynch dude didnt even claim... SMH

[BuJaber]

I thought A50's vote got counted twice?
I'll check

[BuJaber]

Nevermind it got hammered.
Auro

[rosterfoster]

Me+Vedith+Brass+A50+Auro. Only needs 5 so done.

A50’s maths is biased by reads, and is from his own perspective. Mine assumes nothing about anyone’s alignment, and I think still justifies no lynch. I’m interested to know what you disagree with about my maths (btw Seer is less likely to die in NL as I don’t think it’s at all sure that Bambi is maf and not WW).

[BuJaber]

Me+Vedith+Brass+A50+Auro. Only needs 5 so done.

A50’s maths is biased by reads, and is from his own perspective. Mine assumes nothing about anyone’s alignment, and I think still justifies no lynch. I’m interested to know what you disagree with about my maths (btw Seer is less likely to die in NL as I don’t think it’s at all sure that Bambi is maf and not WW).

Yours is assuming everything is random. I think it's good for setup design but not that effective for making this decision.

[brassherald]

I find the no lynch vote from Auro strange after he said he was willing to vote if town was going to do it. I mean, as far as I can tell, he has been pretty hard core for BuJaber as his biggest TR, and BuJaber is not for it right now. (I fully realize this is irrelevant to whether it actually happens right now.)

Anyway, it's weird. I do think a good town block is Me+Roster+A50+Vedith+BuJ... that vote just pushes Auro way out moreso than the disagreement beforehand.

I think lynch order of Egix>McQueen>Auro>Bambi>Whoever's that last slot wins the game.

[Auro]

Nevermind it got hammered.
Auro

Sorry ;-;

I spent a *whole* day derp-arguing forgetting the presence of a seer, so no energy to think through thoroughly.

I feel like having the seer alive is top priority for town and a Lynch would prolly hit a townie, gating the NK, so I'm not that against it.

[brassherald]

I think lynch order of Egix>McQueen>Auro>Bambi>Whoever's that last slot wins the game.

Maybe move the hydra slot up...

I just remembered who the last slot was, by the way.