Open 754: Fire and Ice (Game Over) Fire Mafia wins.

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brassherald
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Post Post #650  (ISO)  » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:01 pm

The council, surprisingly, decided to do nothing that day, the best dragon slayers kind of prayed that that dragons just die.

Votecount 4.2No Lynch (3)~ , ,
Not Voting (1)~ Ceejayvinoya

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Mod Notes:
Night 4 now begins and ends in (expired on 2019-04-17 08:10:00).
A conjurer of cheap trick
Only playing mafia in hydras right now, PM me if you want to pair up

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Post Post #651  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:37 am

End Night 4


The council awoke once again, and pinturicchio, having not even moved from the spot he had been in, was found burned to death, seeming to hope the dragon that killed him would just die. He was a
Vanilla Townie

Start Day 5

Votecount 5.0Not Voting (3)~ rosterfoster, succinct, Ceejayvinoya

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

Mod Notes:
Day 5 now begins and ends in (expired on 2019-04-27 08:40:00).
A conjurer of cheap trick
Only playing mafia in hydras right now, PM me if you want to pair up

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Post Post #652  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:00 am

Shitshitshit

I'm so afraid I'll fuck this up.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #653  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:27 am

All my reads have been piss poor this game.

I've never played Lylo before so I'm just sticking my head in for now, expect long posts and proper cases.

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Post Post #654  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:36 am

Long post ahead:

Spoiler:
Image
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #655  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:49 pm

In post 627, pinturicchio wrote:Fucking called it on D1. No lynching today is getting me nightkilled and I would rather be alive today to win the game
I'd like to point out pinturicchio's death was precisely what I was hoping for as he was my strongest scumspect.

In post 645, ceejayvinoya wrote:Then there's succint looking for connections on vca on who the last scums are but neglecting to try looking for associations.
I was in the thread for less than 48 hours. VCA took five minutes to do, associations take longer and are trickier.

I almost opened this post with a ceejay vote as I was confident in it being him or pint, but thought better of it as I owe the town the effort of analyzing this.

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Post Post #656  (ISO)  » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:08 pm

In post 622, brassherald wrote:On the other hand, a burnt corpse was found as well, along with the carcass of an ice dragon. It seems, without followers, the ice dragon died. Insomnia [/b][/color]Ice Mafia Goon has died, along with his draconian master.
It's noteworthy: last scum deliberately shot the other scum knowing it'd bring them to mylo, not knowing the other scum would shoot the doctor. They could've gone in with the other scum dead, another town dead, facing the doctor and two townies.

This suggests they were in a comfortable position.
In post 620, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 3.FINALBrightEyedFish (3) ~ , , ,
RosterFoster (2)~ ,
rosterfoster wasn't in a comfortable position; he was in a spot where he was looking like a probable lynch candidate for D4. Having ice scum alive would be borderline a necessity if he were scum.

Ergo, why I thought the last scum was either pinturicchio or ceejayvinoya. I leaned pinturicchio because pinturicchio's position was more comfortable than ceejay's.

In post 570, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 3.5insomnia (2) ~[/b],
RosterFoster (1)~
succinct (1) ~
BrightEyedFish (1) ~
Not Voting (2)~ insomnia, rosterfoster
Since we can safely assume scum deliberately cross-killed, we can infer scum were scumreading insomnia; both ceejay and pinturicchio voted insomnia, whereas rosterfoster did not.

In post 521, brassherald wrote:Held just a few feet away, seemingly cowering away from the now dead Vedith, a burnt corpse barely recognizable as RuiRui is found. He was a Vanilla Townie
I initially thought Rui was a fire kill because of being a threat; with the insomnia kill and BEF flipping town, I lean towards this instead being an attempt to cross-kill.

However, interestingly, if it wasn't, Rui's vote prior to BEF was on ceejayvinoya.

In post 497, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 2.8GrandWazoo (4)~ , , ,
Ceejayvinoya (2)~, ,
While I realize roster hammered thus all three of ceejay/pint/roster were on the same wagon as Vedith (ensuring that Vedith's scumbuddy voted with him), Vedith's personality's more likely to vote close together as a scum voting bloc.

Again, favoring either ceejay or pinturicchio as scum.
In post 367, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 2.3maadneet (3)~ , ,
BrightEyedFish (1)~
Further supported by this wagon.
Both pinturicchio and ceejayvinoya shared the wagon with Vedith.

To be fair, there is roster sharing with Vedith. Twice, actually.

This is reason for hesitance and why I erred against instantly voting ceejay; because the point I initially thought condemned him isn't so clear-cut.

In post 317, brassherald wrote:Ofrhz is found burned to death, in his charred hands, a blue crystal is held, but the second someone tries to take it, the crystal crumbles. He was an[/b][/color] Ice Mafia Goon
Given that ofrhz was not scumread, my hypothesis is this wasn't an intentional cross-kill and was accidental, but once made, Vedith's scumteam switched gears and began intentionally aiming for the elimination of the team.

That's of little help however.

Also not helpful; there were equal wagons on ceejay and roster at the time Vedith pushed Allomancer, so determining which was the scumbuddy the Allomancer was a counterwagon to's difficult. (Yes, the roster wagon grew larger, but that was after Vedith started pushing Allomancer.)

There is minor anti-partner indicators via roster's vote on Vedith, again reason I favor ceejay, but it's not outside the realm of early-game bussing altogether.

This is where I'm coming from with my ceejay suspicion.

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Post Post #657  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:10 am

Ok so I'm going to look at this from the Vedith angle.

Succint I'm sorry that you're not going to be able to answer any Vedith/Worm interactions but it needs to be done.

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Post Post #658  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:56 am

Spoiler: Early Vedith worm interactions
In post 11, Vedith wrote:Hi friend Worm!
Are you a good work today or a bad worm!?

In post 12, Vedith wrote:Good worm. Not good work :mad:

In post 14, Vedith wrote:I am very excited for this game and happy thank you for asking!

In post 16, Vedith wrote:I am bad town! But I can tell you now I am neither or or cold. I am perfect temperature \o/

In post 18, Vedith wrote:I claim good town then.
I'm helping \o/

So far we have
Town
Me
Worm
Allo

Scum
Allo

In post 31, Vedith wrote:Oh no what a town slip I just did!
Okay as confirmed IC I'm going to set a few ground rules.

No voting me
No voting Worm
No voting where I'm not

Now I know Vedith really likes Dr Worm so it's not particularly surprising that he talks to worm a lot. However the vast majority of his early ISO is on worm. Looking at other Vedith/Worm games - in Unstable town Vedith mentions town worm a little in the beginning but is by no means focusing on him. It is possible that Vedith was focusing more on Worm this game than usual because they are partners, but perhaps the most likely reason is that Vedith was scum so wanted to distract with the worm thing, irrespective of Worm's allignment. So I think that's actually only a mark against Vedith, not Succint/Worm.

In post 151, Vedith wrote:Yes!
Because now if I'm Scum Im killing you tonight no take backsies


Vedith said this to Orfhz. What do we see? Orfhz died N1. Now knowing Vedith it really wouldn't surprise me if this meant that a lot of what he said was actually truthful (including this). Now moving on to these posts:

In post 189, Vedith wrote:Dr Worm is my best friend

In post 329, Vedith wrote:Dr Worm is VADETHS best friend \o/

Really need people to pick up posting more this day phase though.


Vedith twice says that Dr Worm is his best friend. Now usually I would say that this is just messing about with someone that Vedith likes. Vedith does occasionally call people his best friend, but the repetition of it here makes me think that Vedith was going for a 'tell everyone the truth and they won't believe a word you say' strategy on D1. So I actually think this is a mark against Succinct/Worm.

In post 384, Vedith wrote:Actually, at this stage it makes sense to remove a night kill since I'm confident in the town section.
If I'm wrong on a town, it's worm, but I don't think so.

VOTE: Ceej

In post 385, Vedith wrote:UNVOTE: Ceej

I want to think first.


This is Vedith's first interaction with Ceej - he didn't interact with Ceej at all D1. In this game he interacted a little with his buddy FL but not with the other one (although the other one flaked twice so there would not have been many moments for interaction). This makes me think that Vedith not interacting with Ceej is townie for Ceej.

In post 382, Vedith wrote:UNVOTE: Maad

I'm thinking GrandWazoo then.
Then RuiRui or BEF as other

Ceej as Orhfz buddy.

VOTE: Grand

In post 413, Vedith wrote:Also I was thinking about Orfhz. When we were Scum in donner party they distanced from me.
Same with Elsa and Orfhz, they distanced or just ignored.

I think that if Ceej is Scum they are from the team of 2.


These three posts are both shading Ceej but pushing away from him.

In post 455, Vedith wrote:Both can be Scum.
Worm just is less likely.


This is kind of shading worm but again pushing away from him. I couldn't tell who the other person was? If either of you could figure that out I would be grateful. If the other person is Ceejay then it's a much bigger strike towards Succint scum, but IDK if it is. It is also possible he meant GW.

In post 466, Vedith wrote:Good, who's scum for you?

Scum is in Grand/BEF/RuiRui and maybe Ceej although I like them better as town now.
RuiRui is highly likely to be Ice mafia so I'd lynch Grand or BEF today. Given that PPintu thinks BEF has some town tell I',m preferable for Grand.

And yes, I think Fire mafia want the ice mafia killed today to prevent them having the night kill.


This is moving Ceej back to town. I feel like Vedith would have mentioned Worm as well though if he wasn't trying to deflect from any worm pressure. Adding Ceej in there keeps them as a viable lynch candidate, when especially at that moment fire mafia would have been trying to keep it as 2 to reduce cross-kill problems.

On a side-note I also feel like Vedith was aiming for Mafia every night, going from his posts about theory (I know it should be taken with a pinch of salt, but there is a lot suggesting that Vedith was trying to be as truthful as possible). I'm concerned that Succinct has been pushing the fire-aiming-town angle on N1. I don't think he ever talked about it D1 though.

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #659  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:18 pm

In post 656, Succinct wrote:
In post 622, brassherald wrote:On the other hand, a burnt corpse was found as well, along with the carcass of an ice dragon. It seems, without followers, the ice dragon died. Insomnia [/b][/color]Ice Mafia Goon has died, along with his draconian master.
It's noteworthy: last scum deliberately shot the other scum knowing it'd bring them to mylo, not knowing the other scum would shoot the doctor. They could've gone in with the other scum dead, another town dead, facing the doctor and two townies.

This suggests they were in a comfortable position.
In post 620, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 3.FINALBrightEyedFish (3) ~ , , ,
RosterFoster (2)~ ,
rosterfoster wasn't in a comfortable position; he was in a spot where he was looking like a probable lynch candidate for D4. Having ice scum alive would be borderline a necessity if he were scum.

Ergo, why I thought the last scum was either pinturicchio or ceejayvinoya. I leaned pinturicchio because pinturicchio's position was more comfortable than ceejay's.


This works for you too. You're in a comfortable position yourself.

In post 570, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 3.5insomnia (2) ~[/b],
RosterFoster (1)~
succinct (1) ~
BrightEyedFish (1) ~
Not Voting (2)~ insomnia, rosterfoster
Since we can safely assume scum deliberately cross-killed, we can infer scum were scumreading insomnia; both ceejay and pinturicchio voted insomnia, whereas rosterfoster did not.


I sheeped Pintu there at post . I didn't scumread him independently.

If you're paying attention to my reads then, you'll notice my scumpool at post was at dr worm and roster.

In post 521, brassherald wrote:Held just a few feet away, seemingly cowering away from the now dead Vedith, a burnt corpse barely recognizable as RuiRui is found. He was a Vanilla Townie
I initially thought Rui was a fire kill because of being a threat; with the insomnia kill and BEF flipping town, I lean towards this instead being an attempt to cross-kill.

However, interestingly, if it wasn't, Rui's vote prior to BEF was on ceejayvinoya.


It's a bit inconsistent and shady that you're implying that this may not be a crosskill and I feared Rui somehow.

Proof this was a crosskill:

In post 426, Vedith wrote:I think Ruirui might be ice Scum.
Grand, Ceej and BEF as fire? Well, 2 of them.

In post 466, Vedith wrote:Good, who's scum for you?

Scum is in Grand/BEF/RuiRui and maybe Ceej although I like them better as town now.
RuiRui is highly likely to be Ice mafia so I'd lynch Grand or BEF today. Given that PPintu thinks BEF has some town tell I',m preferable for Grand.

And yes, I think Fire mafia want the ice mafia killed today to prevent them having the night kill.


ok.

In post 497, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 2.8GrandWazoo (4)~ , , ,
Ceejayvinoya (2)~, ,
While I realize roster hammered thus all three of ceejay/pint/roster were on the same wagon as Vedith (ensuring that Vedith's scumbuddy voted with him), Vedith's personality's more likely to vote close together as a scum voting bloc.

Again, favoring either ceejay or pinturicchio as scum.


Nothing to say here. I don't see how being on the grand wagon implicates me as scum, unless you're implying that someone who votes with scum is automatically likely to be a partner?

In post 367, brassherald wrote:
Votecount 2.3maadneet (3)~ , ,
BrightEyedFish (1)~
Further supported by this wagon.
Both pinturicchio and ceejayvinoya shared the wagon with Vedith.

To be fair, there is roster sharing with Vedith. Twice, actually.

This is reason for hesitance and why I erred against instantly voting ceejay; because the point I initially thought condemned him isn't so clear-cut.

In post 317, brassherald wrote:Ofrhz is found burned to death, in his charred hands, a blue crystal is held, but the second someone tries to take it, the crystal crumbles. He was an[/b][/color] Ice Mafia Goon
Given that ofrhz was not scumread, my hypothesis is this wasn't an intentional cross-kill and was accidental, but once made, Vedith's scumteam switched gears and began intentionally aiming for the elimination of the team.

That's of little help however.

Also not helpful; there were equal wagons on ceejay and roster at the time Vedith pushed Allomancer, so determining which was the scumbuddy the Allomancer was a counterwagon to's difficult. (Yes, the roster wagon grew larger, but that was after Vedith started pushing Allomancer.)

There is minor anti-partner indicators via roster's vote on Vedith, again reason I favor ceejay, but it's not outside the realm of early-game bussing altogether.

This is where I'm coming from with my ceejay suspicion.


Not very good.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #660  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:20 pm

Here I go.

VOTE: Succinct
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #661  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:21 pm

VOTE: Succint

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Post Post #662  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:21 pm

Gg.

rosterfoster
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Post Post #663  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:22 pm

VOTE: Succinct

Just to get the spelling right :P.

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #664  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:22 pm

Lols
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #665  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:22 pm

Are you last scum
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #666  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:23 pm

Yep :)

ceejayvinoya
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Post Post #667  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:24 pm

Arghh you got me.

Congrats :lol:
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #668  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:34 pm

I'm not usually one to blame other people but damn I wish town did more here.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst

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Post Post #669  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:36 pm

Yeah the activity level was pretty poor. Me and Vedith were controlling the game.

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Post Post #670  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:38 pm

bah post cuz i can afford it OwO
~Chaos organises me.

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Post Post #671  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:40 pm

I think correct strategy for scum in our situation was always to aim for the other tbh. IDK if you thought I was other scum but shooting doctor is wrong call I think.

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Post Post #672  (ISO)  » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:50 pm

Succinct was a VT. Flavor and threads in an hour or so.

Fire mafia wins.
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Post Post #673  (ISO)  » Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:29 am

Thanks for modding Brass!

Good job Fire Scum!

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Post Post #674  (ISO)  » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:48 am

Read DT roster, you'll see my thought process
~Chaos organises me.

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