Open 761: Grey Flag Nightless - [It's over!]

[Ankamius]

I don't go very hard on this account anymore Shoshin

That's what Blake is for

[Bitmap]

No, I said RC convinced me on Buj with his empirical evidence.

Can you link me to this? Sorry.

[Shoshin]

Let's see what Buj has to say about the game. He might have given up already.

[Bitmap]

Are we going to wait for his replacement?

[Shoshin]

He's getting replaced?

[Bitmap]

I mean if he goes inactive. Wasn't he prodded and didn't respond in this thread?

[Ankamius]

Okay

I'm not overheating now so I have my wits about me enough to say this.

I have a process behind my hunting.
I need specific things to have reads confident enough to be willing to push.
I need enough of a baseline to judge my findings against to have a reasonable idea of how likely my reads are to be correct.
Most importantly, I need a gamestate that is productive enough to where I can find situations that are most likely to result in highly AI interactions.

The reason I play like shit in virtually every game I play with RC in it is because he significantly warps the game. People put him up on a pedistal and play around him in a way that is significantly more difficult to detect the differences of for me, which often is one of the only things that matter in the game.

This specific game is exactly the kind of gamestate I would expect from a game where scum take a huge blow from losing any one person and had one member caught almost immediately. Expectedly, both of the still alive hyperactive players are just straight up town. Literally every other slot can either be scum looking to ride out the day to avoid being hard caught like Datisi or town that sees the game is already won and they don't really have to try, especislly since there is still remarkably little to get reads on outside of the three hyperpoaters, all of which are easy to see as town solely from how the game progressed.

I can't detect the subtle differences between town and scum in games like this. I'm fully aware that my reasons for scumreading Ircher are stretchy and not strong evidence of a scum mindset, but this is the type of play that in a vacuum is exactly how I would expect someone looking to just not get caught play. Bujaber who the hell knows, I've struggled to read him in just about every game and I still don't know how to do it. Voted I don't see a single thing he's done being indicative either way, nor do I expect him to be motivated enough to start caring regardless of alignment solely from what I know about his style and past experiences with him. Chemist is more a gut read.

You can expect more from me all you want, but I am generally strong in games where scum have more of an impact (or deceptively lack thereof) on how the game is progressing or in games where scum need to take risks to stay afloat. My reads are above average, but it's mostly in situations like those since my ultimate strength as town is looking at the game from a side view and seeing the differences between town and scum perspectives as a whole in any one situation and being able to piece together the rest of the players alignments from what reads that gives me.

I strongly suspect that how RC reads me depends mostly on how I go about building towards situations like this, since most of my town games significantly skew towards me trying to build those scenarios directly. I expect this is a significant reason why he struggles to read me in a lot of games and why he drops his townreads of me on a dime when I start thinking he's scum... because a lot of this also depends on my mood at the time and I'm actually not very good at forcing those scenarios to go in ways I expect them to until I literally have a solve set up already or at least an idea of one already put together.

It really isn't surprising to me that he'd read me incorrectly considering my catch up, but honestly, this type of game is one I know I will never have significant contributions in solely by how the game began and continued throughout the first day. This is the biggest reason I replaced in on an account I don't play on anymore and started out playing very nonseriously; I was HOPING to entice people to come out and react to a significant change in the game from the norm and potentially spark new conversations and push things in a direction where the entire game isn't just two slots talking back and forth and essentially resolving the entire game immediately while everyone else just stalls out and does nothing until the end. Immediately being forced to play my hand that fast by RC's response followed by the near immediate call to end the day put me in a position where I had to play on the back foot and at least throw SOMETHING out there to avoid just getting lollynched just for not playing up to my expected level immediately. It's hard to take games like that seriously.

I have the highest chance of catching scum directly on day one, and my official stance on that is an Ircher + Chemist1422 scumteam. I really have no answer on what the three lynches should be because that requires information I don't have, and that information is unlikely to come since we've essentially been leashed to a specific set of lynches. I know that literally all I need to do to win the game is lynch literally any slot that isn't bitmap/shoshin/myself since that 100% wins the game on the contingency that my initial read on how scum are reacting to RC is correct, but I have regularly had significant problems getting townread this year, predominantly after my several scum wins and my playstyle shift on my new playing account, so I really don't know what to tell you there. I expect that no level of read accuracy or nuance in hunting is going to make a difference as long as we stay attached to RC's lynch list. And since the one thing that I need to do to guarantee a town win is very unlikely to ever be a possibility... what motivation do I have to make any kind of difference in the game?

The ONLY other possibility is to locktown another player, but that also relies on most of the slots doing... well, anything. I'm not going to count on that possibility either.

So yes, I'm going to tell you to follow RC's list even though it involves me as a lynch target. I don't see history changing away from that list the way the game is going, and the difference is that exactly a single team (Ircher + Voted) wins in this scenario. It's one I can see being possible in this game, but the odds are still favorable enough for us that I don't think the amount of extra effort to brute force a win is worth the trouble with the amount of content I have to work with.

Sorry, I guess.

[Ankamius]

I wrote that on my phone over about an hour so I'm sorry if it gets too rambley

[Shoshin]

Isn't Ircher/Voted your solve?

[Shoshin]

Who was saying Voted was scum?

[Shoshin]

UNVOTE:

Anyway, I'd like to see what Buj says before deciding who to lynch first.

[Bitmap]

Voted was in RC's null pile afaik.

[Shoshin]

Doesn't matter if Voted is scum as long as Ircher is town. Lynching Buj/Ank/Chemist should win the game.

[NerfedBuJ]

Hi I've sadly missed a lot of stuff.. might be able to catch up over the weekend if I can get a breather.

But we can talk like live or I can rep out before it gets too big for any replacement to read the whole thing.

Why is ircher town, sho? He was scummy last time I posted

[NerfedBuJ]

And what's your read on ank? Abu's posting was pretty weird

[NerfedBuJ]

Who has played this setup before?

How much do scum typically defend each other here? Because it's like one bad associative and it ends up not just being white flag, but effectively "scum lose if 1 scum is lynched"

[NerfedBuJ]

Even more so after the first scum lynch of course.

I was suspected in the duel setup but they only really turned on me when I tried so hard to lynch everyone else except for my lurky partner. In hindsight I probably should have given up since he stopped posting completely but giving up should be against the rules technically. Unless scum all agree to concede that would be the exception I guess

[NerfedBuJ]

Who was saying Voted was scum?

I did
Back when things were getting heated and you and RC and bitmap were proposing solves it looked like he was content with what's happening and choosing what and when to post carefully

[NerfedBuJ]

Throwing out feeler votes on people that were suspected by the loud talkers

[Ankamius]

Isn't Ircher/Voted your solve?

Ircher Chemist

[Shoshin]

Why aren't you scumreading Buj, Ank?

[Ankamius]

should I be?

[Bitmap]

Not a lot of experienced players like sheeping.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

trying to get pagetop

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

trying to get pagetop