Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Raya36]

Raya, is your case that Menalque is scum dependent on A50 being scum? If so, wouldn't it make more sense to lynch A50 today?

Yeah I guess I could do that.

VOTE: A50

[RCEnigma]

Occam's razor says menalque pushing town with SvT h2h wagons, claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim, and all the defending of Mohab day 1 just points to him being scum.

I hate the idea of losing to menalque scum with all of that pointing to him but he gets away with it because he put in effort.

[northsidegal]

Votecount 3.3

Menalque

............

(2):

RCEnigma (1679), Ydrasse (1683)

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Titus (1688), Menalque (1715)

Something_Smart

.....

(2):

Snowblaze (1692), Almost50 (1745)

Almost50

............

(1):

Raya36 (1825)

Not Voting

..........

(4):

Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Eevee (1687)

With 11 alive, it’s 6 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-11 20:41:59).

[northsidegal]

Prodding Eevee.

[Something_Smart]

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Eevee]

Got poked while I was sleeping...

@S_S, if Menalque is scum and frees, who is his partner? What sort of information do we get? Also why do you think it’s Ydrasse?

~Eva

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

How are we supposed to differentiate between the situations where he is town and isn't the escapee and the situation where he isn't town and isn't the escapee?

[Something_Smart]

Got poked while I was sleeping...

@S_S, if Menalque is scum and frees, who is his partner? What sort of information do we get? Also why do you think it’s Ydrasse?

~Eva

I would imagine that answering this is a bad idea, because it just tells him whether or not to flee if he's scum. I don't think he is scum, but I think we shouldn't really talk about who exactly we should kill depending on who flees, because that will just tell scum who should flee. But there's plenty of information regarding him being wagoned that I would imagine will tell us a lot once we see him go red.

Re: Ydrasse, it's partially that I think Menalque is town and trust his read, partially that I still have some suspicion on Raya (her reactions yesterday lessened it, but her interactions with me were still pretty gross) even though there's no way she would get executed today but Ydrasse makes sense as her partner, and partially process of elimination.

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

How are we supposed to differentiate between the situations where he is town and isn't the escapee and the situation where he isn't town and isn't the escapee?

I mean, that depends on who we kill today and who does flee and who gets NK'd. Again, we should cross that bridge when we come to it, and not tell scum what to do during the night.

[Ydrasse]

but... doesn't me/raya go against what you said about a double bus?

[Ydrasse]

also how is there no way that raya would get executed today? like, i feel you should be making a case for the person you think is actually scum versus the person who you think is poe'd down as their partner despite... thinking that that exact combination of people would have to have done something very stupid.

maybe i'm biased here because the vote is on me but i don't see the like... coherency in pushing on me here except that i am in the preferred poe for the day and it fits this scenario which doesn't like... work. :v

[Something_Smart]

but... doesn't me/raya go against what you said about a double bus?

Ye you right, my thoughts are pretty jumbled right now ngl. Somebody suggested you two as a possible team and I certainly didn't do my homework there lol.

UNVOTE:

Gonna look into Raya a bit I guess. Probably a moot point since there doesn't seem to be nearly enough support to kill her.

[Something_Smart]

also how is there no way that raya would get executed today?

because nobody is voting her and nobody has expressed an interest in voting her...

[Ydrasse]

...

*squints*

[Ydrasse]

i did mean have a few posts in mind the other night that i thought were a bit weird in retrospect from raya, lemme go see if i can find what past me saw.

[Something_Smart]

maybe i'm biased here because the vote is on me but i don't see the like... coherency in pushing on me here except that i am in the preferred poe for the day and it fits this scenario which doesn't like... work. :v

There's no coherency, really. In a game with so many conftowns I don't have to pull much weight in solving, I just have to make sure I'm decently townread, which I think I am?

I don't know why Snowblaze and A50 are voting me honestly, I should probably go back and look and engage them on that.

[Ydrasse]

also, given that i don't fit into your scenario, who DO you read with raya now if she's maf?

p-edit: eeeeh *hand wiggle* fmpov you're Okay right now with a little bit of suspicious zest thrown in.

[Ydrasse]

but then again i am not a confirmed townie so my recipes may not be looked upon favorably. flavorably, even.

[Snowblaze]

maybe i'm biased here because the vote is on me but i don't see the like... coherency in pushing on me here except that i am in the preferred poe for the day and it fits this scenario which doesn't like... work. :v

There's no coherency, really. In a game with so many conftowns I don't have to pull much weight in solving, I just have to make sure I'm decently townread, which I think I am?

I don't know why Snowblaze and A50 are voting me honestly, I should probably go back and look and engage them on that.

Basically a lack of actual reads + wanting to try wagoning as many different people as possible to see who reacts and how. At some point I should read back through people’s ISOs and try and work out where I think my vote should be.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Menalque

[Ydrasse]

ngl i only looked for a little bit but couldn’t find what i thought was vaguely questionable from raya so i’m just gonna sleep

[Snowblaze]

The wagon wasn't really in that bad of a position until close to deadline anyway

Umlaut’s vote for A50, the second on the wagon. occurred at 3:46 am, GMT + 1 on the 30th of July (using my own time zone to avoid getting confused by conversions). It was followed by Fredrick’s at 3:52 am and Eevee’s at 4:32 am.

Menalque posted at 4.40 am, not exactly trying to halt the wagon in its tracks. He voted for A50 at 5:09 am.

His Montosh case was made at 1:51 pm on the same day.

Day two ended at 2:32 am on the 31st, a little while before deadline.

It’s not

impossible

, but imo it’s highly unlikely.

[Menalque]

Snow, why is it not ydrasse? Or why is it more important to you to do S_S today?

[Menalque]

Occam's razor says menalque pushing town with SvT h2h wagons, claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim, and all the defending of Mohab day 1 just points to him being scum.

I hate the idea of losing to menalque scum with all of that pointing to him but he gets away with it because he put in effort.

Posts like this are why I feel that your engagement with me today has not been in good faith. You’re starting off, I think, from a position that I’m scum and then explaining my actions in light of that.

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

I also think that people aren’t just townreading me for efforting D2 (and if you are, um, that’s a bad way to read me unless I’m coming in off the back of several scumgames or really burned out, I’m quite capable of efforting as scum when needed). I think they’re townreading me because my trajectories don’t make a lot of sense if I’m scum, outside of some fairly outlandish scenarios (like me being scum with A50). Like, for instance, everything that happened on D2 — for me to be scum I have to have put in a load of effort, secured TRs on me to a sufficient extent that I wasn’t really at risk of being guillotined, only to risk throwing that all away by calling out that I thought scum was more likely to be doublebussing than to be double on which scum!me would know looks insanely scummy given that the initial TRs on my a lot D2 were from my insistence that we probably win by just flipping through the snow wagon one-by-one.

I think it would then also look bad for me to simply flip back to A50 because of feeling ehhh on ydrasse, and to then push montosh at the end of day knowing that if I redirected onto town it would again look bad for me. I just think these things are all very questionable form me in a world where I’m scum, and only really make sense if I am entirely going for a WIFOM based win. And I just think that doesn’t make sense given that I’m generally competent enough as scum to not need to do that, and prefer to play solidly rather than gamble on town falling for WIFOM.

[RCEnigma]

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

Because things like this are narrative pushing. Like that specifically was you saying you wouldn't do xyz as town but would as scum, pushed something else and circled back to that thing scum!you would have done.

The bad faith bit is inaccurate as well, I thought you were townish day 1 and votes on your preferred wagon with the caveat that Mohab!Scum likely points to you as scum. She flipped scum. So even before mohabs flip there was content to pin you as partners and she flipped scum. I'm not overthinking this.

Day 2 I'm not super interested in screaming at the confirmed that they're wrong, they can do their own thing since the game is ultimately in their hands not in the unconfirmeds. Which, fine, but frustrating.

[RCEnigma]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.