Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]


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Post Post #1875 (ISO) » Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:44 pm

Post by Menalque »

Yoink
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Post Post #1876 (ISO) » Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:48 pm

Post by Snowblaze »

In post 1868, Eevee wrote:Snowblaze, we must work as a team! We are here for you!

Why do you think it's not Menalque? Please sell me this!

~Eva
I am very relieved you’re conftown because otherwise my paranoia would be at very high levels right now.

It’s just that if Menalque is scum he’s done some pretty risky things by now (switching away from the counterwagon to his partner) but also some things which he knows will make everyone suspicious (leading two wagons on town, one of which is the counterwagon to scum) and... it just doesn’t make sense for scum to do that, I guess?

(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)
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Post Post #1877 (ISO) » Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:51 pm

Post by Menalque »

I thought a not insubstantial chunk was also that you didn’t think I had many viable partners amongst the other unconfirmeds
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Post Post #1878 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:14 am

Post by Snowblaze »

In post 1877, Menalque wrote:I thought a not insubstantial chunk was also that you didn’t think I had many viable partners amongst the other unconfirmeds
That as well, yes.
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Post Post #1879 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:59 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1850, Menalque wrote:(2) I kind of... don’t see that in your ISO? One of your opening posts is like an ambiguous thing on how MT repping in defaults my slot to scum and I admit to only having skimmed you now but I don’t think you particularly commit on my alignment other than “probably not partners with ydrasse or snow” and “could be partners with fredrick”. Could you point me to where you did this — like where you said you thought I was townish or behaved in such a way to express this + the bit where you said mohab!scum likely points to me!scum?
In post 672, RCEnigma wrote:You're building a hill that you might potentially die on if Mohab flips scum.

VOTE: Snow

Pedit says this is hammer.
In post 736, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 732, Snowblaze wrote:I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.
Partly this, the other part is that menalque is tying himself to Mohab heavily so in the event that you flip town and Mohab flips scum the game just ended on a town win. It's a bit on the nose for scum!menalque. It doesn't rule out scum!menalque/town!Mohab however.
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Post Post #1880 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:02 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1876, Snowblaze wrote:(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)
So when I've considered if Menalque would play this way as scum the likely answer is no. But I know a lot of people experiment with playstyles and I can't help but think the opening on Craig was telling that the slot was prepared to open wolf.

It's either that or menalque is having a very unfortunate game.
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Post Post #1881 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:08 am

Post by Menalque »

Okay, so like re: I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?
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Post Post #1882 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:09 am

Post by Menalque »

Especially considering that you voted snow with me and if you’re town idk why I deserve less benefit of the doubt fypov on just being wrong in the same way you were?
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Post Post #1883 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:12 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 1880, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 1876, Snowblaze wrote:(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)
So when I've considered if Menalque would play this way as scum the likely answer is no. But I know a lot of people experiment with playstyles and I can't help but think the opening on Craig was telling that the slot was prepared to open wolf.

It's either that or menalque is having a very unfortunate game.
I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?

And tbh, I don’t think I’m having that unfortunate a game? Like moderately bad, sure. I was on the wrong side of the D1 wagons, that was the most unfortunate thing. But I think I played D2 really well even if I was wrong in getting a decent number of people to see me as town or at least have very real doubts about my being scum
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Post Post #1884 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:59 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1881, Menalque wrote:Okay, so like re: I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?
736 is literally if Mohab flips scum, flip menalque, town wins. I followed through with that idea through day 2 and ran into the confirmed wall.

I have the notes in a notebook but the gist is you had a scummy trajectory on Mohab and your reasoning for it does not hold up on reread.

For example (I'm recalling from memory) at one point your reasoning for defending Mohab was that snow was scum and scum were counterwagoning Mohab after they failed to get the wagon on me past 4-5 votes. With that in mind you didn't have any interest in the slots that were actively pushing both my and mohabs wagons.

So fmpov those kind of statements were more about defending Mohab than actually seeking a solve. I think the overlap on my wagon and mohabs wagon was like, Eevee/ydrasse. Both slots you townread by deadline.
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Post Post #1885 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:01 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1883, Menalque wrote:I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?
It's not alignment defining it's just an option that *could* explain your play in a bubble.
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Post Post #1886 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:25 am

Post by Titus »

I'll try to catch up today. RL threw curveballs.
Show
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You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin

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Post Post #1887 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:39 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 1884, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 1881, Menalque wrote:Okay, so like re: I don’t think that 736 is really committing you to a read on me, and I felt at the time that you were much more talking generally about the way I’d be perceived in the thread? And the second post doesn’t feel like yiure really saying you think I’m that scummy either, with the “it’s a bit on the nose for scum!menalque”. I guess I could have misread 736. But like essentially I’m still unclear from that on why I’ve been the super obvious slot to you that should be flipped since the start of D2?
736 is literally if Mohab flips scum, flip menalque, town wins. I followed through with that idea through day 2 and ran into the confirmed wall.

I have the notes in a notebook but the gist is you had a scummy trajectory on Mohab and your reasoning for it does not hold up on reread.

For example (I'm recalling from memory) at one point your reasoning for defending Mohab was that snow was scum and scum were counterwagoning Mohab after they failed to get the wagon on me past 4-5 votes. With that in mind you didn't have any interest in the slots that were actively pushing both my and mohabs wagons.

So fmpov those kind of statements were more about defending Mohab than actually seeking a solve. I think the overlap on my wagon and mohabs wagon was like, Eevee/ydrasse. Both slots you townread by deadline.
Err, so I don’t think 736 is that clearly saying that, but okay

With regard to my trajectory, can you find the notes you have and put them out here? I’m also going off memory here but I don’t think I see the contradiction here. If I think that a slot is scum and the other slot is being counterwagoned by scum, I don’t know why I would redirect from the scum I think I have to try and hit who I think might be scum on the CW?

I also am pretty sure that I was very uneasy on eevee around end of D1 and said I thought she was a likely scumslot if snow flipped scum. I think I posted a potential solve that was exactly (snow, eevee, ydrasse) actually? It definitely had snow and eevee in it, I might be misremembering ydrasse in it too

So I guess I don’t think that’s how it happened and if you are remembering it that way I think you should check the posts again?
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Post Post #1888 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:40 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 1885, RCEnigma wrote:
In post 1883, Menalque wrote:I mean, I was prepared to jokingly openwolf, I’m unclear why me doing this on an alt account says very much about my alignment?
It's not alignment defining it's just an option that *could* explain your play in a bubble.
I don’t really get this, but it being something that could explain my play in a bubble isn’t something that I really find compelling and I’m not sure why/if you do?
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Post Post #1889 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:40 am

Post by Menalque »

There are probably a lot of things that could explain my/others play in a bubble but they’re generally not things I would pay attention to
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Post Post #1890 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:52 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1887, Menalque wrote:With regard to my trajectory, can you find the notes you have and put them out here? I’m also going off memory here but I don’t think I see the contradiction here. If I think that a slot is scum and the other slot is being counterwagoned by scum, I don’t know why I would redirect from the scum I think I have to try and hit who I think might be scum on the CW?
I think that's fair but I guess it is a culmination of things. Like, while I was taking day 1 notes I noticed your early game potential solve coincided with all of the unconfirmed slots minus like...A50 I think? Which could be scum plan, could be coincidence.

The big issue I do have is your defense of Mohab, the waffle when Mohab was in danger of actually flipping (not before), and you largely ignoring it. I posted 736 because the connection between you and Mohab already existed and is the heavy reason I suspect you, not the snow push or the Montosh push, they are supporting actions.
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Post Post #1891 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:53 am

Post by RCEnigma »

If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.
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Post Post #1892 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:56 am

Post by RCEnigma »

If you're town I'm 100% positive the scumteam is Raya + SS. Is this discreditable fypov?
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Post Post #1893 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:09 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 280, Menalque wrote:All scum in (snow, ydrasse, RCE, fredrick, homura) is my early prediction
In post 440, Menalque wrote:@eve i really don’t think mohab is a good guillo for today and we can revisit there later if the better slots for killin (suji, RCE, snow, ydrasse) don’t flip scum promptly
In post 442, Menalque wrote:3/3 (suji, Holden, RCE, ydrasse, snow)?
In post 585, Menalque wrote:I think I’m roughly at

Ydrasse, fredrick, umlaut
Holden, A50, RCE
Mohab
Chemist, S_S
Raya, eevee
Snow

Where my pool for scum is basically the last 5 names

I should also say: while my halves are mostly true, I may or may not have configured how much I townread some people or scumread others, and may or may not have put one of my top SRs in my TRs and vice versa
So these are the main pools that I can spot from looking at my ISO quickly, and i don’t think your point makes sense given that my later scumpool moved away from the unconfirmed slots and more into a group that is now decently confirmed? Also I just don’t really see that much benefit to scum!me in leaving my pool to match up a lot with the unconfirmeds? It’s just not really how I think about/approach a game, I’d worry more about who I thought I couldn’t get misguillo’d as scum than about lining up with my prior reads

Okay, so can you pull the posts that you’re talking about re: my defense of mohab/me waffling so I’m clear what we’re talking about?
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Post Post #1894 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:12 am

Post by Menalque »

In post 1891, RCEnigma wrote:If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.
I’m not sure is the answer

Currently I’m just sheeping titus due to my two pushes having been wrong so far

I am uneasy about how you/A50 have interacted all game especially given that you’ve doubled down on it. Idk if you would both do this as scum but I think one of you could be pocketing the other

Idk why you’re dismissing ydrasse as scum really? Like I said I think that a double bus is plausible but one on one off is probably the most likely? Which would mean if it’s not you it’s A50
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Post Post #1895 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:26 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 289, Menalque wrote:
In post 43, Mohab500 wrote:I don't know what the fuck HoldenGolden is saying, so I'll be ignoring that slot
In post 134, Mohab500 wrote:who the fuck is eva?
In post 193, Mohab500 wrote:idk a lot of players open wolf a both alignments, not sure why you're bringing this stuff up as game throwing now
These 3 had good tone and I mindmelded on the first two
In post 9, Mohab500 wrote:So, I am just wondering some stuff regarding the setup. From what I've read, does scum auto-win once they reach day 5? and why would them getting lynched Day 1 and Day 2 instantly end the game if there are supposed to be 3 players?
In post 11, Mohab500 wrote:Correction: end of D4 or N4's start
In post 124, Mohab500 wrote:I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?
These 3 are like oblivious town posting
In post 653, Menalque wrote:
In post 649, Umlaut wrote:Menalque, independently of Snowblaze, what is your actual read on Mohab?
I probably would have compromised there if we needed majority lynch

Her ISO is notably different from partition but I’m not convinced that means she’s scum. I still think the dumbtelling means probably town but like, I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. Mostly she feels like a counterwagon to snow after the RCE counter didn’t take off, which is compounded by a number of scummy slots avoiding getting on her while not necessarily calling her town
In post 688, Menalque wrote:I think you're confusing what town "should" do with what town "do" do. Because a lot of the time if I'm unsure of something I'll just sling it in the thread for clarification. I understand the paranoia around mohab seeming to have intentionally townslipped, but I just don't think scum actually very often decide to fake townships, and also it hasn't worked at all because people are so sceptical given the nature of the townslip? Like if you're focusing on townslips being faked, I think fredrick's is more likely because that's so much more plausible as a thing to not be sure of. Like mohab fake slipping a lack of knowledge about whether there are PRs just isn't even an effective way to fake townslip.
In post 746, Menalque wrote:
In post 737, Eevee wrote:What about the push do you think is poor quality?
The fact that your main point seems to have been “mohab meta looks different here” and despite that being pretty weak on its own mohab has still become a strong counterwagon to snow
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Post Post #1896 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:31 am

Post by RCEnigma »

In post 1894, Menalque wrote:
In post 1891, RCEnigma wrote:If you are town where does scum lie and why? Omgussing me doesn't do much to change my mind on you and makes this discussion largely unproductive.
I’m not sure is the answer

Currently I’m just sheeping titus due to my two pushes having been wrong so far

I am uneasy about how you/A50 have interacted all game especially given that you’ve doubled down on it. Idk if you would both do this as scum but I think one of you could be pocketing the other

Idk why you’re dismissing ydrasse as scum really? Like I said I think that a double bus is plausible but one on one off is probably the most likely? Which would mean if it’s not you it’s A50
If I have to make a gut decision on 1 of you/A50 being scum my vote is on you. That doesn't make A50 not scum but I think there are other scumspects.

I thought ydrasse was likely scum throughout day 2 until a reread, her actions and trajectories don't make sense as scum. Unless the idea is that town was left to create all of the pushes and scum was fine with doing nothing while Mohab was wagoned.
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Post Post #1897 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:32 am

Post by RCEnigma »

Also, 726 is probably the single hangup I have on putting Menalque with Mohab. But it's not super solid since I know it's fakeable.
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Post Post #1898 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:51 am

Post by Menalque »

Okay, so which bits of that do you think are waffle and why do you think they are things I would do as scum?
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Post Post #1899 (ISO) » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:51 am

Post by Menalque »

Also can you go into more depth on what about ydrasse’s trajectories you think make her not scum?
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