Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Raya36]

Also we only have 4 people to hunt within.

What are you takes on what I mentioned about Ydrasse and their reaction to Menalque saying they were scum? I think it was genuine? And if I'm right then it's either RCE or A50 and I'm leaving A50.

I still need to check interactions though

[Almost50]

I kinda can't see past ydrasse here. The reason I linked her to S_S yesterday was her 1780, and precisely the bolded:

i think there are a few posts within raya's iso that, with the context of d2 going down how it did, read a bit more ? than they did yesterday. i am however too tired to go through them right now in depth

i don't find myself like, convinced that she is Completely Mafia, no doubt, but i feel like i townread s_s a bit more than i did before and townread raya a little less.

rce
raya, s_s
a50, mena

my head is around here right now. i don't think any thing right now that i've read through has really been enough for me to reconsider where i'd wanna vote atm.

good night lovely townies.

This is where she starts adjusting her reads just in case. I mean, she was adamant it was me/Menalque (Menalque already flipped green, and I know I am town too), but she's moving S_S up and Raya down to be able to push Raya if for some reason she failed to continue her push on me/Menalque.

Also, the Titus NK is weird. Titus was not exactly throwing her weight into the game. My only explanation is that Titus was the main advocate of the Ydrasse elimination. I thought Eevee would be the NK because they are more active, invested and also more volatile.

P-edit: S_S was SCUM. Hello. That reaction could totally be faked with much ease.

[Raya36]

Also another thing to mention. Do not bring anyone to E-1. Scum win if someone is brought to E-1 and they quick-eliminate.

P-edit: right lol ok so ydrasse is valid as well. Still only 3 for me to hunt within so not horrible

[Almost50]

Also we only have 4 people to hunt within.

What are you takes on what I mentioned about Ydrasse and their reaction to Menalque saying they were scum? I think it was genuine? And if I'm right then it's either RCE or A50 and I'm leaving A50.

I still need to check interactions though

Ydrasse asked me to link the scum game of S_S I was talking about. I did. Ahe ignored the link and never said anything about the subject anymore.

[Raya36]

Ok thanks, I'll keep that in mind when I go through the interactions in an hour or so

[Eevee]

I thought sometime during D3 lynching Menalque D2 was always the right move, because if he was town, there were surely bussers. It was kind of too late though.

Gonna go through Menalque's notes and S_S shortly as well.

~Eva

[Eevee]

I don’t have good feelings on any of the remaining slots if I’m honest and I’ll try to explain why so you can look at it tomorrow:

A50 — just hasn’t really played at all. Says that this is because he doesn’t want to effort and then be misguillod anyway, but he hasn’t been at that much risk of that for a while and still has avoided playing. Strong associatives with RCE but unclear if partners taking a big gamble or if one is deliberately muddying the waters for after they escape.

RCE — has felt off all game. Has been pursuing the ‘easiest’ misguillotine in me for the last 2 days. His engagement with me has felt evasive and surface level. Has been trying to suggest that A50 should be cleared if we flip him, but again, possibly trying to just create negative associations there where only 1 is scum.

S_S — A50 is right that he feels similar to in jk9++ and unengaged. Suji doesn’t like scum/doesn’t feel comfortable as scum, especially if there’s no strong presence there to guide him. Could make sense that he didn’t post at all with a scum role PM.

Ydrasse — titus’ VCA says she’s the most likely scum alongside A50. She also may have a tell that I don’t want to out, but if said tell is correct then she’s scum.

Raya — I disagree that she’s playing to her town meta. I read a previous game of hers and had her picked out as town pretty early on and that read never really changed. Here I just don’t get the same sense? Also, would need to read back through, but impression is she lacks conviction. Like her move onto me here after having supposedly been convinced by snow that I don’t make sense as scum with many people

[Raya36]

It seems she had scum points for all the unconfirmed

I'll give it a closer look later

[Eevee]

Well, I did a skim through and definitely have a top suspect, but don't want to sway opinions/put that person on guard so I'll wait for a bit.

~Eva

[Almost50]

@Eva (and Eve): Please don't just skim. This is crunch time. The game is decided TODAY, so please take your time to read and discuss (either with each other or with the whole thread).

[Eevee]

Fair enough! I was being serious I think it's just this person though. I've let Eve know as well. I'll make a case sometime during the day for sure.

~Eva

[Eevee]

it's Ydrasse or Almo for me

~Eve

[Eevee]

damn.

well, gg everyone! was fun despite the roller coaster of replacements and extensions and second-doubting!

I REALLY THOUGHT THIS GAME WAS OVER ............

oh no

is there another dumbtell to parse??

~Eve

[Ydrasse]

Also we only have 4 people to hunt within.

What are you takes on what I mentioned about Ydrasse and their reaction to Menalque saying they were scum? I think it was genuine? And if I'm right then it's either RCE or A50 and I'm leaving A50.

I still need to check interactions though

Ydrasse asked me to link the scum game of S_S I was talking about. I did. Ahe ignored the link and never said anything about the subject anymore.

this is super dumb.

i asked for it at night and then didn't revisit the game until the next day where i thought the game was over? so of course i'm not gonna say anything or read it then.

[Eevee]

Who do you think it is, Ydrasse?

[Ydrasse]

I kinda can't see past ydrasse here. The reason I linked her to S_S yesterday was her 1780, and precisely the bolded:

i think there are a few posts within raya's iso that, with the context of d2 going down how it did, read a bit more ? than they did yesterday. i am however too tired to go through them right now in depth

i don't find myself like, convinced that she is Completely Mafia, no doubt, but i feel like i townread s_s a bit more than i did before and townread raya a little less.

rce
raya, s_s
a50, mena

my head is around here right now. i don't think any thing right now that i've read through has really been enough for me to reconsider where i'd wanna vote atm.

good night lovely townies.

This is where she starts adjusting her reads just in case. I mean, she was adamant it was me/Menalque (Menalque already flipped green, and I know I am town too), but she's moving S_S up and Raya down to be able to push Raya if for some reason she failed to continue her push on me/Menalque.

Also, the Titus NK is weird. Titus was not exactly throwing her weight into the game. My only explanation is that Titus was the main advocate of the Ydrasse elimination. I thought Eevee would be the NK because they are more active, invested and also more volatile.

P-edit: S_S was SCUM. Hello. That reaction could totally be faked with much ease.

do you... want me to keep static reads this entire game? like, do you WANT me to double-down on you today with no considerations at all? you were already irritated (?) to some degree it seemed like in 1824 for that sort of back and forth where there wasn't a lot of re-evaluation save for you + mena.

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

doubly so given that the person who was killed was the person who was most adamant about me being scum. fmpov it's just a way to put more attention on me today and hope that there can be a miselim pushed through off of it so that the last scum can escape tonight. you can think that it's wifom and that i Would Do That As Scum but like, /shrug.

p-edit: i'm between a50 and raya; i have a fairly strong tr on rce right now.

for a50 i have... like, all the stuff i have said before and this sort of weird post i'm replying to now where it's like "well, i can't really look past them..." which feels to me like gently suggesting the idea to everyone for the hopes that people will go for it.

raya, though, is because s_s and raya interacted a lot iirc? posts like 1832 and 1835 stick out to me where s_s was bringing up raya as someone to be potentially suspect but ultimately just didn't go anywhere with. also the fact that s_s forgot somehow that raya didn't really fit into the solve that he'd been going with (1 on/1 off from d1) feels like it could've been a forced effort to keep some sort of scrutiny on his partner.

though idk if s_s would go through all of that and just... actually push on a town!raya or not. so yeah s:

i haven't reread through everything yet, admittedly, but that's just what's at the forefront of the old brain.

[Almost50]

@Ydrasse: Fair enough. Now explain why your read started to shift after I had made my case on S_S and voted him (my vote was second to Snow's at the time). Why did you then start defending him (1779) and then moving him simultaneously with Raya down (1780) after you had literally said:

ftr i don’t think i ever will vote raya at this point

just two hours before I made my case on S_S.

Let me put it all in a better "time schedule" for all to see:

1- Ydrasse states she won't be voting Raya EVER

2- 2 hours later I make a case on S_S and vote him (bringing his wagon to 2 votes with plenty of time left on the day)

3- 6 hours later 9and 8 from her "I'm not voting Raya" she starts by defending S_S and then moving him up and Raya down.

That was all within an 8 hours frame.

So, excuse me when I "press X for doubt" when I think you may have been deliberately away from the thread to make sure a mis-elimination occurred and that you didn't have to address the S_S case

[Almost50]

do you... want me to keep static reads this entire game? like, do you WANT me to double-down on you today with no considerations at all? you were already irritated (?) to some degree it seemed like in 1824 for that sort of back and forth where there wasn't a lot of re-evaluation save for you + mena.

Your reevaluation sucked, especially since you ALSO posted the following DURING THE SAME 8 HOURS:

yeah. fmpov i still think it's a possibility that the case on montosh came eod to stop the a50 wagon from going through.

So it looks to me you refused to reevaluate on Menalque (Town), and me (Town), but you did reevaluate on S_S (Scum) and moved him up, and on Raya (leaning Town to me) and moved her down.

[Umlaut]

Nice trolling, Menalque

I need to look more closely at the EOD interactions and see who

wasn't

posting after Menalque claimed scum. Also probably just read through everything.

[Almost50]

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

You weren't even supporting the theory of scum bussing. You wanted to eliminate off the Snow wagon all the way.

On fact, the only time you voted S_S on 1413 and it lasted for 8 full hours (what's with you and the 8 hours time frames?)

[Almost50]

doubly so given that the person who was killed was the person who was most adamant about me being scum. fmpov it's just a way to put more attention on me today and hope that there can be a miselim pushed through off of it so that the last scum can escape tonight. you can think that it's wifom and that i Would Do That As Scum but like, /shrug.

Of course I think it's WIFOM. Titus is the type of player that is stubborn about her VCA. You probably thought it would be easier to change everyone else's minds, and ESPECIALLY with S_S escaping, so "double bus isn't an option" would be your argument (and believe you me; some will buy into it still).

If I/RCE were scum the right move was for that person to escape last night, because we are heavily linked together. I know some will still think "they wouldn't have escaped if X was their partner" but: (a) It's the same kind of WIFOM you're using to say it ain't you, and (b) if it was me AND RCE we wouldn't have had a choice really. One of us would have had to escape, and the other would use that WIFOM from A to try and survive.

[Almost50]

To elaborate on (b): It is now a KNOWN FACT that the team is NOT A50/RCE. So, only ONE AT MAX of the pair can be scum. If they escape they open the door wide open for the other (the townie of them) to be mis-eliminated on the basis that "they had no choice, and one had to escape anyway".

[Almost50]

And it would have been the town player on the Snow wagon vs the 3 unconfirmed on the Mae wagon still. Do you think I (or RCE) would have had a chance against S_S (assuming you are town here).

Like, let's do a hypothetical proposition here: Let's say I am scum with S_S. Let's say I escaped last night instead of him. Who would YOU have pushed today between RCE, S_S & Raya?

[Almost50]

Nice trolling, Menalque

I need to look more closely at the EOD interactions and see who

wasn't

posting after Menalque claimed scum. Also probably just read through everything.

I think Ydrasse was the only one

posting

in twilight (of the 4 unconfirmed, that is)

[Eevee]

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

Scum can't bus, so I'm not sure what your argument is here with the "what would my motivation be as scum?" Is the counterargument it being too obvious? I already said in the Menalque case, but I don't think that's a good reason since it's still scum motivation + you can always try to explain it with WIFOM.

Can you explain your RCE read?

~Eva