Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Lukewarm]

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.

I think I am going to look at all 4 of them with this time line on infinity in mind.

[unwnd]

@absinthe.

Can you do me a favor? I want you to look over Unwnd's iso, with a specific thing in mind.

Scum!unwnd's choices are heavily influenced by Infinity's decision. If Infinity votes Briar, then scum!unwnd can push for the correct solve for Gate. Which would both be easier to build a case for, and would give him towncred if he gets to say "I told you so" if we flipped the Gate first. On the other hand if Infinity votes Ana, then he absolutely cannot build a case against the scum in the other minigame. Because that would lead to a scum lose if the Gate flips first

So basically, will you look over unwnd's iso, starting at 1016. and tell me if you get the feeling that unwnd is actively trying to solve the gate, or if it feels like he is trying to stay active but delay solving until he knows where Infinity is leaning. Again, this only matters in how unwnd is interacting with the GATE. His solve on the Wall would be independent of how things go with Infinity.


Here is a timeline of where Infinity was at throughout the thread
Post 1319 - Infinity says she thinks that Briar is the scum
Post 1403 - Infinity is still trying to decide, wants to hear from both
Post 1431 - Infinity says she thinks Ana is scum
Post 1469 - Infinity makes it clear that she is committed to Briar being town

I am worried that if I keep looking over it, I am going to confirmation bias myself. So hopefully you can give it a fresh pair of eyes.

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.

I...don't understand what you're trying to prove. I thought Infinity was scum? I don't need to wait on her. Ana said she was going to vote Briar no matter what, so my disposition is that that minigame was genuinely out of my hands.

[unwnd]

I've read over your post Lukewarm like three times now and I don't understand what you're thinking. All of us agreed that Keep was going first? Where does me waiting for what happens matter there. Ana was dead set on voting Briar and I think infinity probably just put her hands up and started to believe in the inevitability. I don't understand how you can say that I was trying to delay solving the gate, when all I've done is try to talk to both S_S/Catboi. That is my idea of trying to solve them? and if you want to look at my ISO again you can clearly see that.

[absinthe]

@absinthe.

Can you do me a favor? I want you to look over Unwnd's iso, with a specific thing in mind.

Scum!unwnd's choices are heavily influenced by Infinity's decision. If Infinity votes Briar, then scum!unwnd can push for the correct solve for Gate. Which would both be easier to build a case for, and would give him towncred if he gets to say "I told you so" if we flipped the Gate first. On the other hand if Infinity votes Ana, then he absolutely cannot build a case against the scum in the other minigame. Because that would lead to a scum lose if the Gate flips first

So basically, will you look over unwnd's iso, starting at 1016. and tell me if you get the feeling that unwnd is actively trying to solve the gate, or if it feels like he is trying to stay active but delay solving until he knows where Infinity is leaning. Again, this only matters in how unwnd is interacting with the GATE. His solve on the Wall would be independent of how things go with Infinity.


Here is a timeline of where Infinity was at throughout the thread
Post 1319 - Infinity says she thinks that Briar is the scum
Post 1403 - Infinity is still trying to decide, wants to hear from both
Post 1431 - Infinity says she thinks Ana is scum
Post 1469 - Infinity makes it clear that she is committed to Briar being town

I am worried that if I keep looking over it, I am going to confirmation bias myself. So hopefully you can give it a fresh pair of eyes.

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.

I want to look at this with tomorrow's brain and tomorrow's eyes.

My tired brain thoughts are that town players probably weren't paying enough attention to infinity's posts at the time, assumed the Keep was solved and were focusing on the other minigames.

[Lukewarm]

@absinthe.

Can you do me a favor? I want you to look over Unwnd's iso, with a specific thing in mind.

Scum!unwnd's choices are heavily influenced by Infinity's decision. If Infinity votes Briar, then scum!unwnd can push for the correct solve for Gate. Which would both be easier to build a case for, and would give him towncred if he gets to say "I told you so" if we flipped the Gate first. On the other hand if Infinity votes Ana, then he absolutely cannot build a case against the scum in the other minigame. Because that would lead to a scum lose if the Gate flips first

So basically, will you look over unwnd's iso, starting at 1016. and tell me if you get the feeling that unwnd is actively trying to solve the gate, or if it feels like he is trying to stay active but delay solving until he knows where Infinity is leaning. Again, this only matters in how unwnd is interacting with the GATE. His solve on the Wall would be independent of how things go with Infinity.


Here is a timeline of where Infinity was at throughout the thread
Post 1319 - Infinity says she thinks that Briar is the scum
Post 1403 - Infinity is still trying to decide, wants to hear from both
Post 1431 - Infinity says she thinks Ana is scum
Post 1469 - Infinity makes it clear that she is committed to Briar being town

I am worried that if I keep looking over it, I am going to confirmation bias myself. So hopefully you can give it a fresh pair of eyes.

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.

I...don't understand what you're trying to prove. I thought Infinity was scum? I don't need to wait on her. Ana said she was going to vote Briar no matter what, so my disposition is that that minigame was genuinely out of my hands.

My point is that scum can interact differently across the minigames once they know that the keep is won then they can when the keep might still be lost.

Once infinity showed up in the thread, she requested that she be able to vote first in the keep, and Ana agreed

besides you don't actually need to convince either of us that the other is scum,

you can just vote for whichever one of us you believe is town.

that person will self-vote so it doesn't really even matter for us.

In this moment, Ana admits that she will self-vote if Infinity votes for her, and the scum team now knows that Infinity's solve in the keep is really important on how they can handle the other mini-games.

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

I am currently isoing all 4 of you with this in mind. I am just asking absinthe to look over you for me specifically because I am having a hard time deciding if you are really doing that, or if I see you doing that because I have started out off put by the way you handled the day in general

[unwnd]

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

I read Luke's mech as in over his head i

nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here

I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,

even when I

was

townreading S_S

Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.

I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.

[Lukewarm]

I want to look at this with tomorrow's brain and tomorrow's eyes.

My tired brain thoughts are that town players probably weren't paying enough attention to infinity's posts at the time, assumed the Keep was solved and were focusing on the other minigames.

Yeah, town players were. But infinity's solve would make a big difference for scum players.

Here is a hypothetical to try and explain my point.

Imagine the scum team is [Briar,SS,Unwnd].

If Infinity votes Briar, then Unwnd can make a case bussing SS. If he we don't listen to him, he wins. If we do listen to him, then town wins the Gate, and he gets to say "see I told you guys to vote for SS" and then can try to win the Wall.

If Infinity votes Ana, then Unwnd can never make a case against SS. If we listen to him, then he loses the game on the spot.

So my question is, does it feel like Unwnd is trying to delay making a case against ss or catboi until he knows if the mafia has won the Keep.

Is that why it feels like there is 100+ posts coming from him that do not appear to be solving the Gate?

I am currently reading over all 4 of them to see if they appear affected by the way Infinity is leaning. But want you to look at unwnd for me

[unwnd]

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Spoiler:

Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

I read Luke's mech as in over his head i

nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here

I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,

even when I

was

townreading S_S

Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.

I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.

Needed to fix.

[unwnd]

Is that why it feels like there is 100+ posts coming from him that do not appear to be solving the Gate?

Everything I've done is to try and solve the Gate...

[Lukewarm]

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Spoiler:

Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

I read Luke's mech as in over his head i

nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here

I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,

even when I

was

townreading S_S

Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.

I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.

Quoting you to fix the spoiler tag, so I can actually read this

[Lukewarm]

Oh. You did already lol

[Lukewarm]

Every time I read your iso, I get frustrated, and try to explain to myself why you were posting the way you were, and that ends up with me coming up with scum motivations. But then every time I read Dunn's iso, I also feel like they might be scum.

I think I am just not very good at this game

[unwnd]

I'm saying this with good conscience that your approach on me is misled and you're just in disagreement with how I am telling you the events went down. Do you think I'm lying or something?

[Lukewarm]

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Spoiler:

Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore

I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting

So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here

I read Luke's mech as in over his head i

nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it

Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread

Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information

But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here

I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,

even when I

was

townreading S_S

Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.

I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.

Needed to fix.

I do not think that that is clear from your iso at all.

Like Day 1 you gave S_S a TR, and then started Day 2 by taking it back. And from there I never saw a post that felt like it was saying "I think SS is scum" or one that felt like it was saying "I think catboi is town" until 1645.

Every other post felt more like "I gave a TR to S_S, but I take that back." And then a lot of posts about you still to solve the two of them, without committing to stating a read on either. - And that is what felt like you were just delaying taking a stance for so long.

But maybe I just misunderstood. I am curious if other people understood that you thought ss was scum and catboi was town before post 1645. I am going to wait to see what Absinthe says.

Tomorrow I promise I will point out the things that make me suspicious of Dunn, but for now I am heading to bed.

[catboi]

Sorry for dipping last night, I got busy with other things before I fully caught up, reading up now~

[catboi]

There was a whole drawn out follow-on exchange which would veer into masterclass level distancing IMO.

Is this the interaction that ends at 205 or does it go longer?

I don't see the masterclass, sorry. All I see is catboi awkwardly breaking it off after not knowing where to go with it.

I mean, yes, I didn't know where to go with the questioning based on her answers to me so I just stopped. I fully admit that. That doesn't make me scum. I just was annoyed with her making the immediate play but ended up concluding she was impatient/antsy town. I wish I'd kept pressing it but even now I'm not sure what I should have seen that I missed. You can't fault me for not catching something no one else did.

[catboi]

I still think that catboi latching on to me talking about ana-briar on day 1 is a scum tell

And then one of either Luke or Unwnd, who were also latched onto that, is the other

catboi is close to null but leans scum because he was focused way more on talking about how I was shading ana/briar than what I was actually talking about.

That was legitimately what I thought you were talking about, I didn't understand it as having any other meaning. look at your posts on the subject:

If Briar and Anastasia are both town, Why doesn't anybody care/want to be in the keep? Shouldn't mafia want to put a member in there so they can swap more effectively?

you guys both think that Ana is town or no?

Within context, Is there any way I should take this other than you expressing a scumread on someone at the keep? At the time it felt like a scum motivated play. So I misinterpreted it, okay. But the mistake on my end wasn't disingenuous. And I would have known fosing you over that opinion just makes me look worse when Briar flips.

[catboi]

How's this for a towntell

If I'm scum then we had six options and this seems like the literal worst one. Not only would we have chosen me over Infinity to try to carry the Gate, but we would have picked the IC to be someone who has demolished scum-me before and whose towngame I respect immensely. I don't know who Briar and Ana are but I highly doubt that I would be more scared of them as scum than I would be of ffery.

Here is what I was working with when I asked about Ana being swapped

S_S was saying they wouldn't have picked Absinthe to be swapped

Looking at this again the argument only really works under the assumption of Briar as town, after the flip it becomes somewhat obvious why they would never choose to send Anastasia to the gate given how things shook out. I'd have taken that swap in a heartbeat.

[catboi]

I mean if it's WIFOM either way then what makes it masterclass distancing but just regular scum play if it's S -> T

I really don't understand that. Like yes it was good scum play by her and yes it was probably excessive, but why was it more excessive/more risky if catboi is scum? If anything it seems like it makes MORE sense S/S because they're trying to make interactions that look genuine... but ultimately yes it is WIFOM.

Assuming you're town, then you're looking at that interaction knowing that catboi is scum.

I can't do that. I have to look at it from both perspectives. It didn't ring false when I read it originally -- it read like real thoughts she was having about his play. Looking at it from the now-perspective, I know it's false from her side, but it still doesn't spew catboi as either alignment to me.

Thanks for your case. I've read it and I'm cogitating.

Catboi wanted the keep flipped first.

He did. and?

So you're putting too much faith in briar-catboi interactions not looking scum aligned when he could have been banking on that

If I'd actually wanted to look unaligned with her I don't start declaring heer locktown when she outs her main to me, I just keep my positioning away from her and say Ana is my strongest townread still. That change just makes me look way worse. Like, you can't say I was banking on the flip making us look unaligned when I would have massively, massively faceplanted that in the 11th hour for no good reason.

[catboi]

You made an argument about how you would have swapped someone who is going to flip scum because of course you would - you're not going to betray knowledge she's flipping mafia so you act uninformed and point back to it when she flips - it's a very basic play. Are you seriously trying to argue that kind of move is beneath your capability?

Yeah probably? I mean I would have been really leery to play into the "Briar is obvtown" narrative as scum, since I don't think I would necessarily be confident in navigating that in a way that looks genuine. So I think I probably would have avoided talking about her, or at least it would have been more hesitant.

You...didn't play into it. In fact you barely said anything about her. Lmao. This is a much stronger argument for ME being town than it is you

[catboi]

And let me just say that you're really not understand what I have to deal with.

Both Catboi/S_S have pretty much shut me down in most attempts, and S_S especially has said 'I don't care what your read is on me'. Tell me Luke: What's the best way to read someone? Is it sitting on your own laurels and assuming you can get in someone's head and figuring out what they're thinking? Or is it approaching them, asking questions, and trying to understand. I simply cannot be a mind reader and I did not feel like I was helping Absin by sitting there and taking the same approach S_S was. I don't know what about that is so hard to understand, or how approaching them is..working against wanting to win?

You could have just...analyzed our posts?

[catboi]

Okay, I caught up, I haven't read s_s's case on me yet because I didn't want to throw all my time into tearing it up before I'd read everything else. Will get to that now, still waking up (๑ᵕ⌓ᵕ̤)

[catboi]

I've half a mind to just jump to the gate right now - I actually didn't mind lukewarm's suggestion earlier that I be the third at the keep, because I don't see scum motivation in Anastasia's play and although briar's play didn't make a ton of sense to me I feel as though she's threadspewed from the townreads on her, but, selfishly, I want to stay in the game longer and I think the keep should be resolved first. I feel like I'm able to play better after flips are on the table.

So this logic is... bad. It's just flat-out not playing to wincon if true. "It might make sense to put me at the Keep... but I think Gate is more fun, so I'm just gonna pick it." And they did pick it. Because they want to be in the game longer.

I can't help but notice that at this point, Briar (flipped scum) and unwnd (top pick for third scum) had already locked into the other two locations. Surely that's just a wacky coincidence though, and not catboi inventing a flimsy excuse to guarantee a very early 1-1-1 split?

The idea that it's "playing against wincon" is just flat out untrue - I had felt the keep was more or less a lock, and that me jumping there wouldn't affect the outcome of things too strongly. I felt as though I'd be able to make a more effective contribution to the game elsewhere and in that sense me not going to the keep was +EV.

If I'm scum with unwnd, why do I

need

to make the immediate jump to the wall and put the spotlight on myself? Do you think every scum is going to blatantly jump to the location they want to ensure an optimal swap? No, the play would be to wait it and delegate responsibility to other people, and then in the later phases you can point back and say "look it's not me I didn't care where I went". Like, there is NO WAY IN HELL I ever make such a blatant play as scum, because it makes me look like crap afterwards.

Well, let's see if there's any way we can figure out whether this is catboi's real opinion or just an excuse. How about 1101, where they indicate the resolution order should be Keep > Gate > Wall. Why not Keep > Wall > Gate? What happened to selfishly wanting to stay alive as long as possible?

Oh, come ON. This is reaching so hard I'm surprised you didn't pull a muscle doing it. I want to be able to contribute more but my

literal first priority is not staying alive above all else

. That's ridiculous and there's no way a town player ever tries to argue something like this. I felt that game order was the best way of simply "playing the probabilities", so to speak, hence my logic for the resolution order. The only way someone could interpret this as contradictory is from willfully trying to misrepresent me. Anyone who actually had to read my words in an honest fashion wouldn't see the problem here.

You know, this might be just me, but I'm not seeing any other references to that.

Oh hey, they talked about their motivation for going to the Gate:

My feeling was that, assuming the two townreads already at the keep were correct, me going there would ensure it was all town and force the mafia to swap with one of us. Being that I was not as townread as the other two, I'd likely be left there and I could just vote my townread and win a point. However it seemed almost superfluous to me - they were likely to get voted without my help regardless, and I'd end up removing myself from the game before being able to do much. Like I said in the post you quoted, I feel like I'm able to contribute a lot more effectively once there's been some flips and I can analyze based on interactions. Granted this way I have to convince people I'm town myself, which is not always easy for me, but I still feel as though I'm more valuable this way.

And this just seems like a lie. Like, this isn't the justification they gave when they locked it in! They said that the Keep would be fine, but they wanted to stay alive longer.

This is entirely consistent with what I said. You're straining to make attacks. It's literally just me elaborating on what I said in the earlier post.

And there's also 1710, which I touched on before. It's clearly wrong (omg catboi made 2 posts supporting ana and only 1 supporting briar, obviously they would automatically trust ana over briar and surely the scum were able to deduce that !) and while the motivation for it doesn't

have

to be malicious, it seems to just be the judicious townie thing to do to actually, like check this before posting it? especially since catboi is clearly trying to project this deliberative vibe (even though as I think I've previously said, it really isn't even pro-town to be that way).

I'm sorry, am I supposed to check my own ISO? I misremembered the strength of the signals I was putting out. This is again completely ludicrous. Yes, I thought I had expressed my townread of Anastasia in stronger terms than I had. That's simply owing to me forgetting, but ultimately I felt like I had given that impression when I made that post. By the same argument, if I were scum, wouldn't I bother to check how much I had said? The argument doesn't work. Again this is a typical scum argument: latching on to a townie making a mistake (me forgetting how strongly I'd expressed my townread of Ana) and and trying to spin it as being scummy somehow when it transparently should be NAI at worst.

And 1719 is like... arguably a perspective slip. They're trying to frame my flailing and freaking out as a scum response to an unusual thing happening, even though if I were scum I would have known the Briar scumflip was coming a mile away and indeed my reaction was only so disorganized because I am town and WAS caught off balance. (Absinthe was I believe the one to first point this out. It was a good point.)

Nah, it' not - because scum have to emulate a townie mindset, there ends up being a bit of mental lag time in their responses to anything - they have to get into that mindset of "how would I be reacting here as town" but it's imperfect, doing so takes thinking where for townies it's instinctual. It's akin to late game in a regular mafia game - as the game approaches ELO the town players start to get paranoid and stressed, and oftentimes scum just forget to act that way because their mind is set on pushing an agenda rather than emulating the responses they'd have as town.

[Marashu]

Official Vote Count 2.06

---

Gate

catboi (0):
Something_Smart (0):
absinthe (0):
Not Voting (3): catboi, Something_Smart, absinthe

Wall

unwnd (0):
Lukewarm (0):
Dunnstral (0):
Not Voting (3): unwnd, Lukewarm, Dunnstral

Keep

Controlled by the

Mafia

[/mech]

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-05-22 23:00:54).

Mod notes:

[/area]

[catboi]

Yes LMAO.

What do you make of that?

oh no now I have an alt guess for you that I'm not happy about

I am curious still about S_S's guess on me and why it bothered him, because he didn't say anything about it more and while I appreciate him not outting it for fear it's correct

It was probably a rude thing to say regardless of whether it was right. Sorry.

I'm thinking it wasn't right though because if it was then you'd probably know why I said it.

Though, I do want to ask to clarify @S_S: was it a game thing or a more personal/player thing that you were thinking?

Not sure exactly what you mean by this, but the last time I played with the player I thought you were we had a pretty unpleasant conflict.

If you would like "textbook distancing", how about this: pretending to be mistaken about the identity of an alt.

I would've liked more of a follow-up from S_S regarding if he thought you were genuine or not

Bear in mind that it is extremely to our advantage to hide our reads as much as possible.

You think so?

To an extent. Scum will have either 6 or 15 options for who to swap; either way, which swap is optimal will depend almost entirely on how people are being read. The less they know about that, the more likely they are to make a suboptimal swap-- and the swap matters a huge deal.

How do you feel about what Ana did just now?

Probably moderately +scum because giving up control is pretty much always +town here, but not very much so. (Incidentally: this means Lukewarm's reaction is towny.)

Ugh, I don't want to think about the swap. >_> I've been handwaving it as an Event to deal with later and I don't wanna think about the consequences /now./

I mean yes, and in a sense you're right that we shouldn't be talking about it much because we don't want to give scum ideas. But... it is an important part of the setup, so you can't just ignore it.

Are you saying the gambit is that Ana says all this and gets swapped out, rather than the gambit being her presence and theoretical vote when we're actually voting?

The latter, or she says all this and then acts hesitant when D2 actually comes. There would be no point in voting as a gambit, since at the Keep anyone who gets voted will just self-hammer. (or not self-hammer and enjoy their conftown status)

I guess my issue with it being the latter is that... isn't it just a scumclaim if she's hesitant? I don't understand the like... worry regarding Ana since we can hold her to her word knowing how many times she's said it.

The weird thing here is that I am simultaneously trying to argue that (a) Ana as town OUGHT to be hesitant and (b) Ana as scum would be hesitant.

I think the upshot is that she's probably town, for how much she has pushed back on (a).

I do trust Ana's faith in her absinthe read, for what that's worth.

Do you know Ana's main?

I figured it out, yes.

Mm.

I'll take your word for it. I also townread absinthe for the same reason Ana does.

There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her.

Sure. But in that case, she would be the nullread at the Keep, so we'd need another townread there.

What is your actual read on Ana?

Town

And I did say this before.

I think it makes sense, send people with more WIM to other places to fight.

I'm not exactly Mr. WIM as scum though. My scumgame usually flags eventually as I find it harder and harder to make an effort; maybe I'd be better this game because it's only two days. Not sure. I think I'd also be demoralized by the way the day ended, unless it was planned with Dunnstral.

Why's that?

Because you don't scumread me and aren't ffery

Now, look at all these interactions. There is basically not a single one of these where something_smart looks like he is remotely trying to solve briar. It's classic scum talking to each other: completely neutral, asking each other things so they're acnowledging each other's existence, but never trying to hard to apply pressure to one another or appear like they're supporting each other too much.

And this plays into what he said: something_smart

didn't

really support the "Briar is obvtown" narrative. In fact, he hardly expressed a read on her at all. Think about how the game was proceeding: Briar from very early on was essentially brute-forcing herself as a townread in an attempt to win the Keep. With that known, what are her teammates going to be doing? They don't want to be seen supporting her too loudly. Then they look bad after she flips. But they also don't want to be questioning the townreads on her and sowing doubt, because that could lead to them losing the wall. And so that forces them into an awkward middle ground, where they have to avoid saying too much about Briar. And that's exactly what happened with something_smart. He barely said anything about Briar at all. You can go back and check his ISO yourself.