Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS


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Post Post #950 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:07 am

Post by T3 »

Raya is almost 100% cult, no question on that.
Umlaut is also cult?
Enchant was culted.
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Post Post #951 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:08 am

Post by T3 »

Like maybe...
what if cult tried to recruit Marky but was rolestopped?
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Post Post #952 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:14 am

Post by T3 »

Your recent posts have definitely been towny, Dwlee. I really doubt Umlaut was an original cult so cult having failed to recruit marky makes the most sense with you town.
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Post Post #953 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:17 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

I think a world where Enchant wasn't culted is possible, and the rolestop could explain why we seem to have competing wagons without hammer. Enchant could have hammered you and was also on the Raya wagon. I kind of want to go complete gut here and just go onto Raya but I'm not sure if I'm being tricked
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #954 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:18 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

Something something recency bias with my reads
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #955 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:18 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

UNVOTE:
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #956 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:32 am

Post by T3 »

Raya pretty much always flips cult here regardless of either of our alignments.
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Post Post #957 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:13 am

Post by Umlaut »

Prodge

It's been a while but honestly I haven't had anything to say, nothing has changed for me in two days. Still think T3 is the best bet.
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Post Post #958 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:34 am

Post by Marky Mark »

In post 932, osuka wrote:
In post 928, Marky Mark wrote:UNVOTE:

I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically
i agree and i think i can trust you to a degree

what are you thinking
I honestly reckon at this point its worth trying to come up with the various scenarios, and then making an educated guess based on what is most likely

Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny

Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer

Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult
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Post Post #959 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:35 am

Post by Marky Mark »

That's all off the top of my head and very possible that I've overlooked something so please chip in ideas
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Post Post #960 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:39 am

Post by Marky Mark »

I know I'm town, but hopefully from other people's POVs they can see that the chances of the cult targetting me vs a claimed PR (Enchant) or a crumbed PR (Flea) are pretty low. I also think submitting no action makes no sense, so I am going to say that scenario C seems unlikely.

So fmpov it comes down to scenario A with a solve of Raya(CL)/{Dwlee or Umlaut}/Flea or scenario B with a solve of T3(CL)/Osuka/Enchant
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Post Post #961 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:41 am

Post by Marky Mark »

I'm gonna hold off voting while we talk things through, given that the cult could quickhammer if I get it wrong (eg if I voted T3)
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Post Post #962 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:42 am

Post by Marky Mark »

I'm not so worried about the quickhammer with Raya as we've already been there, but still good to be careful
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Post Post #963 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:41 am

Post by Marky Mark »

So, following the rush of responses to the above, I guess I'd be keen to hear other slots' take on the above scenarios wrt which seems most likely or whether I'm missing something here
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Post Post #964 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:05 pm

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny
Cult can still lose their leader and win, it's not a flagbearer scenario. If Raya is CL it would mean that her minions aren't deepwolf enough for her to be confident in that plan.
If I have been culted, or people suspect that, Osuka needs to not be treated as clear.
I feel that cult were already on Raya though.
In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer
Yup, cult should have hammered Raya absolutely if she isn't CL for optimal play. There was enough suspicion on her. I would expect both cult to already be on there in this scenario due to no hammer.
Enchant, myself and Osuka are CL clear, leaving you and T3 as the cult in this case.
Cult would be happy to let this go stagnant, you're provoking conversation and I buy T3's reaction. I may be wrong, I think this is the least likely case.
In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult
Cult having 2 members means either you were targetted (unlikely due to PR claim) or no-actioned, in this case Osuka is on the line up potential but again this sceanario is incredibly unlikely as this is about as far from the wincon as you can get.

My thoughts currently are Enchant has been recruited, and CL is in yourself, dwlee, raya and Umlaut. Outside chance of T3. Like I said above, you're stirring conversation in an otherwise stagnant state so I'm willing to drop you from the pool for today. Puts me at Dwlee
Raya and Umlaut. I don't think it's Raya at all, I'd expect CL Raya to be more involved.
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Post Post #965 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 1:18 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #966 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:07 pm

Post by Raya36 »

In post 928, Marky Mark wrote:UNVOTE:

I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically
Seems I made you back down. Now you need to find someone else to push. Or we could just go for your cult leader, T3
In post 942, T3 wrote:Umlaut/Enchant was culted
Flea/osuka are basically clear
100% not cult is Marky

Like raya and dwlee are basically confirmed cult FMPOV. We need to find which oneis the leader.
What makes Marky not cult, besides that you know he's cult and you're lying. Why couldn't he have been recruited?
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Post Post #967 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:14 pm

Post by Dwlee99 »

He can't be recruited because Enchant rolestopped him. Either he started cult or he isn't.
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #968 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 2:20 pm

Post by Raya36 »

Right, I forgot about that. I still think he started as cult and Enchant was recruited though. I don't see why cult wouldn't recruit Enchant
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Post Post #969 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:40 pm

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
It's you or Umlaut, imo.

So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.
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Post Post #970 (ISO) » Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:49 pm

Post by Enchant »

Enchant, myself and Osuka are CL clear, leaving you and T3 as the cult in this case.
I can explain, why i can't be CL.


Why you and Osuka can't?
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Post Post #971 (ISO) » Fri Jun 25, 2021 12:29 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 969, Flea The Magician wrote:
In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
It's you or Umlaut, imo.

So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.
I feel like you just don't get my playstyle. I was doing things by talking to T3
I prefer they, thanks :)
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Post Post #972 (ISO) » Fri Jun 25, 2021 2:02 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 970, Enchant wrote:
Enchant, myself and Osuka are CL clear, leaving you and T3 as the cult in this case.
I can explain, why i can't be CL.


Why you and Osuka can't?
Well for one, I haven't been counter claimed and my pr claim matches yours....

Osuka went nowhere. I don't think cult plays to no recruit game here.

The odds are too against them
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Post Post #973 (ISO) » Fri Jun 25, 2021 2:03 am

Post by Flea The Magician »

In post 971, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 969, Flea The Magician wrote:
In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
It's you or Umlaut, imo.

So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.
I feel like you just don't get my playstyle. I was doing things by talking to T3
I've played with scum you dwlee. And yes I may be biasing but that's where my Poe is at.
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Post Post #974 (ISO) » Fri Jun 25, 2021 2:07 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

Why is Raya not CL flea?
I prefer they, thanks :)
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