Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS
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T3 He/himSurvivor
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I think a world where Enchant wasn't culted is possible, and the rolestop could explain why we seem to have competing wagons without hammer. Enchant could have hammered you and was also on the Raya wagon. I kind of want to go complete gut here and just go onto Raya but I'm not sure if I'm being trickedI prefer they, thanks :)- Dwlee99
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- Umlaut
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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Prodge
It's been a while but honestly I haven't had anything to say, nothing has changed for me in two days. Still think T3 is the best bet.“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,and the other kind,’ and those whodon’tsay. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs- Marky Mark
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I honestly reckon at this point its worth trying to come up with the various scenarios, and then making an educated guess based on what is most likelyIn post 932, osuka wrote:
i agree and i think i can trust you to a degreeIn post 928, Marky Mark wrote:UNVOTE:
I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically
what are you thinking
Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny
Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer
Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult- Marky Mark
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I know I'm town, but hopefully from other people's POVs they can see that the chances of the cult targetting me vs a claimed PR (Enchant) or a crumbed PR (Flea) are pretty low. I also think submitting no action makes no sense, so I am going to say that scenario C seems unlikely.
So fmpov it comes down to scenario A with a solve of Raya(CL)/{Dwlee or Umlaut}/Flea or scenario B with a solve of T3(CL)/Osuka/Enchant- Marky Mark
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- Flea The Magician
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Flea The Magician Fae/FaerJack of All Trades
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Cult can still lose their leader and win, it's not a flagbearer scenario. If Raya is CL it would mean that her minions aren't deepwolf enough for her to be confident in that plan.In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny
If I have been culted, or people suspect that, Osuka needs to not be treated as clear.
I feel that cult were already on Raya though.
Yup, cult should have hammered Raya absolutely if she isn't CL for optimal play. There was enough suspicion on her. I would expect both cult to already be on there in this scenario due to no hammer.In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer
Enchant, myself and Osuka are CL clear, leaving you and T3 as the cult in this case.
Cult would be happy to let this go stagnant, you're provoking conversation and I buy T3's reaction. I may be wrong, I think this is the least likely case.
Cult having 2 members means either you were targetted (unlikely due to PR claim) or no-actioned, in this case Osuka is on the line up potential but again this sceanario is incredibly unlikely as this is about as far from the wincon as you can get.In post 958, Marky Mark wrote: Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult
My thoughts currently are Enchant has been recruited, and CL is in yourself, dwlee, raya and Umlaut. Outside chance of T3. Like I said above, you're stirring conversation in an otherwise stagnant state so I'm willing to drop you from the pool for today. Puts me at Dwlee
Raya and Umlaut. I don't think it's Raya at all, I'd expect CL Raya to be more involved.Wanna see how to use my pronouns? Click here -- Or here if you just wanna see fae/faer used in context.
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- Raya36
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Seems I made you back down. Now you need to find someone else to push. Or we could just go for your cult leader, T3In post 928, Marky Mark wrote:UNVOTE:
I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically
What makes Marky not cult, besides that you know he's cult and you're lying. Why couldn't he have been recruited?In post 942, T3 wrote:Umlaut/Enchant was culted
Flea/osuka are basically clear
100% not cult is Marky
Like raya and dwlee are basically confirmed cult FMPOV. We need to find which oneis the leader.- Dwlee99
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- Flea The Magician
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It's you or Umlaut, imo.In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.Wanna see how to use my pronouns? Click here -- Or here if you just wanna see fae/faer used in context.
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I feel like you just don't get my playstyle. I was doing things by talking to T3In post 969, Flea The Magician wrote:
It's you or Umlaut, imo.In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.I prefer they, thanks :)- Flea The Magician
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Well for one, I haven't been counter claimed and my pr claim matches yours....In post 970, Enchant wrote:
I can explain, why i can't be CL.Enchant, myself and Osuka are CL clear, leaving you and T3 as the cult in this case.
Why you and Osuka can't?
Osuka went nowhere. I don't think cult plays to no recruit game here.
The odds are too against themWanna see how to use my pronouns? Click here -- Or here if you just wanna see fae/faer used in context.
Songs I have used in catchupsDo you wanna get to know me? Like are you really sure about that? GTKAS!█████████████████████████
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I've played with scum you dwlee. And yes I may be biasing but that's where my Poe is at.In post 971, Dwlee99 wrote:
I feel like you just don't get my playstyle. I was doing things by talking to T3In post 969, Flea The Magician wrote:
It's you or Umlaut, imo.In post 965, Dwlee99 wrote:Flea I think you're confbiasing on me
So far, you're here making noise doing little. Umlaut is someone I could switch two. I feel its in you two.Wanna see how to use my pronouns? Click here -- Or here if you just wanna see fae/faer used in context.
Songs I have used in catchupsDo you wanna get to know me? Like are you really sure about that? GTKAS!█████████████████████████
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