Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]


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Post Post #1525 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:59 am

Post by imaginality »

In post 1520, Shirou wrote:Why do you seem so confident that Ydrasse is telling the truth there?
Where did I say I was 100% confident?

If the maths had worked out that two players having same role same night was uber unlikely I was going to press her as to whether she was serious or not.

The maths showed it's marginal so I didn't see value in pressing her on it (outing myself).

I did lean towards it being true (and still do, though no interest in pressing her about it and in fact think it would be scummy to do so), because in general lying as a townie isn't good down the line, but I'm definitely not 100% sure.
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Post Post #1526 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:44 am

Post by catboi »

Vote Count 1.09
imaginality (4):
fua, Ydrasse, implosion, Shirou
redtea (3):
GuiltyLion, Amazonian Legends, morph the cat
implosion (1):
imaginality
Tejate Raichu (1):
northsidegal
Cephrir (1):
numberQ


Not Voting (3):
redtea, Tejate Raichu, Cephrir


With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 1 is January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.


Deadline Timer:
(expired on 2022-01-22 15:00:00)
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Post Post #1527 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 4:48 am

Post by fua »

In post 1517, imaginality wrote:
In post 1493, Amazonian Legends wrote:
In post 1190, imaginality wrote:That was why I was trying to figure out how much I should be concerned about Ydrasse's claim.
Where were you concerned with Ydrasse's claim? I see where you were suspecting her and where you were concerned about fua's claim, but I don't see where you were specifically concerned with Ydrasse's claim.
I deliberately stayed vague about the reason in my post #713 ("I'm also suspicious of Ydrasse. Need to go back and get the quotes but I remember being pinged at least a couple of times.") because I didn't want to out myself as N2 doc at that point. In the background I was trying to figure out how much her claim should make me wary of her hence the probability discussion.
In post 1520, Shirou wrote:
In post 1517, imaginality wrote:
In post 1493, Amazonian Legends wrote:
In post 1190, imaginality wrote:That was why I was trying to figure out how much I should be concerned about Ydrasse's claim.
Where were you concerned with Ydrasse's claim? I see where you were suspecting her and where you were concerned about fua's claim, but I don't see where you were specifically concerned with Ydrasse's claim.
I deliberately stayed vague about the reason in my post #713 ("I'm also suspicious of Ydrasse. Need to go back and get the quotes but I remember being pinged at least a couple of times.") because I didn't want to out myself as N2 doc at that point. In the background I was trying to figure out how much her claim should make me wary of her hence the probability discussion.
This is the best post in your ISO. Your claim considering this is kinda more believable except...

Ydrasse's claim came right after I suggested perhaps we should massclaim except we could
lie
about it.

Why do you seem so confident that Ydrasse is telling the truth there?

In fact, even if I hadn't said anything about lie being permissible, why would you assume someone would necessarily be telling the truth when claiming out of the blue like that? It's definitely possible to be a townie doing WIFOM even if I hadn't said that we could lie about it, but it's
especially
likely and possible that it's WIFOM even if she's town due to the fact I said lying to confuse scum was okay.

At the same time this makes your claim a bit more believable, it also kinda reeks of TMI by how much you trust that Ydrasse was telling the truth there, which may be a sign you knew she was town, because as scum it's easier to believe what comes from townies is just the truth.

(I know you're considering "she may be lying and is scum", but the scenario I'm talking about is one where she's lying, except she's town doing it for WIFOM when some posts before she claimed it, I had suggested the idea. It doesn't feel you gave much consideration/thought to the possibilities here. )
Really? I kind of hate this post. Imaginality is LHF for sure, so forcing mafia to kill him at night assuming he’s telling the truth would actually be a net positive for town. Not sure why he was trying to hide it to begin with. Was it because it’s an early role? He would only need to survive two days to use it as opposed to living to D3. I really don’t understand his perspective here.
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Post Post #1528 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:10 am

Post by imaginality »

Didn't want to out myself being doc (until I got wagoned) because it helps scum narrow down who the cops are.
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Post Post #1529 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:34 am

Post by fua »

That’s actually a good point, but why be concerned about what night you function on?
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Post Post #1530 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:17 am

Post by numberQ »

I'm back. Feeling better about mafia than I was a few days ago. I'll be playing catch up while working on some stuff around the house for the next few hours. I'll try to sequentially read all 20-30 pages I missed, but my ability to retain information will probably die a few pages in. So I might switch to an ISO centric catch up.

If there's anything anyone feels I should pay particular attention to, let me know.
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Post Post #1531 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:31 am

Post by redtea »

reminds me that an earlier run of this game, people suggested not outing themselves even after expending their abilities because that also narrows down the pr pool for scum. idk if that's been said yet
also idk if that worked out for them but it made sense to me
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Post Post #1532 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:32 am

Post by redtea »

good to see you back nq, sorry I don't have anything all that useful useful to point out
if nothing else the main contenders for limming today seem to be me and imaginality. Imaginality made it to E-1 at some point so you might wanna find that portion of the game
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Post Post #1533 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:33 am

Post by redtea »

also I'd read nsg on shirou you might not have been around for that either
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Post Post #1534 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:42 am

Post by redtea »

I didn't realize people other than imaginality have been claiming
why
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Post Post #1535 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:55 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1530, numberQ wrote:If there's anything anyone feels I should pay particular attention to, let me know.
I most of all want your takes on redtea, imaginality, and everything Shirou is saying in favor of imaginality over redtea
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #1536 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:58 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1520, Shirou wrote:At the same time this makes your claim a bit more believable, it also kinda reeks of TMI by how much you trust that Ydrasse was telling the truth there, which may be a sign you knew she was town, because as scum it's easier to believe what comes from townies is just the truth.
why does scum!imaginality decide to stick with the whole "I'm a night 2 doc" pseudo-counterclaim as an argument to push/suspect Ydrasse anyway?

It's the main thing that makes me think he might be town, I don't think scum would decide in advance to fakeclaim that particular night/role and use it as a reason to push someone who isn't at all likely to get limmed here, just doesn't feel like a natural play for scum
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Post Post #1537 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:00 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1519, imaginality wrote:I'm also wary of Tejate proclaiming he was reconsidering me not for the reasons whoever said earlier about Tej being my scumbuddy, but rather with me being town, I see it as a way where Tej can look like he's unsure about my flip without doing anything to push another wagon and giving himself room to rejoin my wagon.

That said, I don't think the timing of Tej's reconsidering post is as suspicious as people are making out though (Shirou in #1494 and maybe someone else earlier?). Like Tej said it's not unreasonable to want to reread someone even in the absence of new content, considering it felt like the game was taking a breather at that moment.

Also, Shirou's argument that Tejate is trying to divert from me falls apart when I flip town. So to my mind there are three possibilities here about why Shirou is pushing this point:

1. Shirou is town and believes he's making a good point against Tejate.
2. Shirou is scum and thinks making it look like Tejate is a plausible buddy for me will help get my mislim over the line
3. Shirou is scumbuddies with Tejate and knows this attack on Tejate will be invalidated once I flip, making Tejate look better than if Shirou hadn't called him scummy over this, while helping them with distancing

(2 and 3 could both be true.)
this whole post kinda vibes town to me
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Post Post #1538 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:05 pm

Post by catboi »

Searching for a replacement for northsidegal.
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Post Post #1539 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:28 pm

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 1536, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1520, Shirou wrote:At the same time this makes your claim a bit more believable, it also kinda reeks of TMI by how much you trust that Ydrasse was telling the truth there, which may be a sign you knew she was town, because as scum it's easier to believe what comes from townies is just the truth.
why does scum!imaginality decide to stick with the whole "I'm a night 2 doc" pseudo-counterclaim as an argument to push/suspect Ydrasse anyway?

It's the main thing that makes me think he might be town, I don't think scum would decide in advance to fakeclaim that particular night/role and use it as a reason to push someone who isn't at all likely to get limmed here, just doesn't feel like a natural play for scum
By the same tune though, I'm not sure why people want to claim their night at all. It really doesn't offer town much in term of advantages, while giving scum some ideas for night actions.
In post 1537, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1519, imaginality wrote:I'm also wary of Tejate proclaiming he was reconsidering me not for the reasons whoever said earlier about Tej being my scumbuddy, but rather with me being town, I see it as a way where Tej can look like he's unsure about my flip without doing anything to push another wagon and giving himself room to rejoin my wagon.

That said, I don't think the timing of Tej's reconsidering post is as suspicious as people are making out though (Shirou in #1494 and maybe someone else earlier?). Like Tej said it's not unreasonable to want to reread someone even in the absence of new content, considering it felt like the game was taking a breather at that moment.

Also, Shirou's argument that Tejate is trying to divert from me falls apart when I flip town. So to my mind there are three possibilities here about why Shirou is pushing this point:

1. Shirou is town and believes he's making a good point against Tejate.
2. Shirou is scum and thinks making it look like Tejate is a plausible buddy for me will help get my mislim over the line
3. Shirou is scumbuddies with Tejate and knows this attack on Tejate will be invalidated once I flip, making Tejate look better than if Shirou hadn't called him scummy over this, while helping them with distancing

(2 and 3 could both be true.)
this whole post kinda vibes town to me
I held off on responding to this whole conversation because I wanted to really do my best to think it through this time instead of just running off the nearest cliff edge and hoping for the best. There are things I like and dislike about this post in particular.

I was actually thinking of calling out Shirou's claim that the timing makes it suspicious, with my specific reason for doubting being... why would I do this as scum? If imaginality is my scumbuddy, and a wagon is rapidly forming on him; what is my motivation to vote, and then immediately unvote for an unrelated reason? If you think it was some sort of WIFOM "no scum would be dumb enough to do this" play, it clearly didn't work judging by how people are now intensifying suspicion on me for it. Furthermore, this does not really serve as an adequate defense for imaginality either, the wagon very much has its wheels. If I wanted desperately to move the wagon off of scum!imaginality and onto town!redtea, why would I not just start cultivating a wagon on redtea? Why go through the process of making that vote at all?

I have certainly made the classic "3 or more options for what is happening here" posts, so that doesn't really strike me as off. I've also put emphasis on the options where someone is scum before, so that doesn't either. However, that last little bit pings me a bit. If I were making a post like this, instead of just saying "2 and 3 could both be true" I would just make an option 4. It sticks out as a strange way to frame the argument, since it creates a fourth option where Shirou is scum while also putting large amounts of emphasis on the 2 other options.
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Post Post #1540 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:16 pm

Post by imaginality »

You're right that adding an option 4 ("both 2 and 3") could have been a clearer way for me to express that point. I disagree that phrasing it the way I did overemphasises the scum!Shirou options any more than adding an option 4 would have, though.
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Post Post #1541 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:45 pm

Post by numberQ »

Alright, housework took longer than expected but I did start to catch up. Made it to the end of page 42 before my eyes started to glaze over. Brief summary of my notes so far:

---

GL looks town on page 35/36 where he SRs me, though I tend to TR people who build cases against me. But I'm seeing a town perspective from his analysis.

---

Ceph has not been pinging my radar nearly as much, in either direction. His posting feels less directed than it did back when I was pressing him. I have very few notes about him up to page 42, except for his post 897 where he is very waffley on GL. And he says GL's page 35/36 posting "treads into eyeglaze territory" and somehow that's a scumtell?

Also I do not think it's scummy to park my vote without pushing for the slot to be limmed. I think it was GL who said that? I didn't actually note it down, just remembering it now as I type this summary. My vote doesn't always mean I'm going to actively push them, especially if activity surrounding the voted slot dies down and my attention is drawn elsewhere.

---

implosion pinged me enough that I made a TODO to ISO him. Particularly, posts 906 and 907 do not strike me as town motivated. And then the vote in 908 does not vibe with the other two at all.

---

redtea is extremely blase and has posted almost nothing of worth. Does scum do that so blatantly? <- literally the exact line in my notes, and literally the entirety of my redtea thoughts up to page 42

---

The only posts from imaginality I saw that had anything close to scumhunting in it was 938 and maybe 928, both of which are very light touches. That pinged me enough to put a TODO to ISO him as well. I also noted down that AL's 949 puts into words some of my pingy thoughts on imag.

---

Shirou did It™ again, and I'm starting to think It™ is a playstyle thing that just rubs me the wrong way. First It™ was having a magical method to extract a read out of Tejate based on a very specific and obscure series of questions. Then It™ was post 978, where he was some magical way to observe a read from imaginality posting on his own like a goddamn nature documentarian observing giraffes in their natural habitat or something.

But outside of It™, his engagement with others has been in depth and probing, with what I think is a clear town perspective. It's just those It™ instances that I cannot grok at all. So I'm inclined to say I just don't get It™ and should use his non-It™ posting to read him.

---

Anyway this is obviously incomplete. Next I'm going to ISO implo, imag, and redtea and see if I can use those to follow threads throughout the remaining 20 pages I haven't read, hopefully can do that tonight. But a post-by-post catchup of ~500 posts will probably fry my brain so I don't think THAT will be happening tonight.
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Post Post #1542 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:35 pm

Post by morph the cat »

It's been a crazy day for both of us.

Tomorrow.
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Post Post #1543 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:14 pm

Post by Shirou »

In post 1538, catboi wrote:
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"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
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"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
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Post Post #1544 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:24 pm

Post by Shirou »

In post 1541, numberQ wrote:where he was some magical way to observe a read from imaginality posting on his own like a goddamn nature documentarian observing giraffes in their natural habitat or something.
I like that description

Also not replying Tejate "why would I vote and unvote as scum". Too much effort for what I don't see giving any reward.

Either way making enemies of Tejate or GL or Morph or whover isn't my focus. For the rest of this dayphase I just want three other votes for Imaginality. That's the important stuff so I may end up for now ignoring certain comments or engagements towards my way if I don't feel like it contributes much to that objective.

@redtea you don't seem to like Imaginality slot that much so can you vote for him before I lose my patience and begin pushing your wagon myself? It's either you or him.

Please and thank you.
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Post Post #1545 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:26 pm

Post by Shirou »

I'm interested to see what Ceph will decide here

@numberQ, you seem kinda whatever/neutral on redtea while kinda suspicious of some imaginality's posts. Are you willing to vote him in a redtea vs imaginality dilemma?
いつだってヒーロー。

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Post Post #1546 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:27 pm

Post by Shirou »

by the way
In post 1541, numberQ wrote:redtea is extremely blase and has posted almost nothing of worth. Does scum do that so blatantly? <- literally the exact line in my notes, and literally the entirety of my redtea thoughts up to page 42
In my opinion no. I think scum!redtea is kinda less blatant about it from what I read of their recent scum games.
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Post Post #1547 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:01 pm

Post by imaginality »

I'll vote redtea if it does come down to redtea or me, of course, but currently I would rather see implosion or numberQ limmed and I think there's time for that to happen.

numberQ's iso has a lot of caveats, to-dos and minor questions. He backed off his early suspicion of Cephrir. I'm not seeing anything strikingly towny in his posts.

He can prove himself town by voting implosion with me though - how about it, numberQ?
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Post Post #1548 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:07 pm

Post by implosion »

oops this entire day went by >.>

i also had some hesitancy on the thing Shirou mentioned re:imaginality for similar reasons but I haven't yet figured out if I put stock in it (I see Shirou figured out he doesn't but I'm not sure atm). Not really caught up proper though.
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Post Post #1549 (ISO) » Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:35 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1547, imaginality wrote:I'll vote redtea if it does come down to redtea or me, of course, but currently I would rather see implosion or numberQ limmed and I think there's time for that to happen.

numberQ's iso has a lot of caveats, to-dos and minor questions. He backed off his early suspicion of Cephrir. I'm not seeing anything strikingly towny in his posts.

He can prove himself town by voting implosion with me though - how about it, numberQ?
eh but then I do not like this post
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