Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Brighter Puppy]

All town wagon?
By definition, if i scumread you it cannot have been an all-town wagon.

- Norwee

[mc esther]

okay, youre literally just telling me that my posts are scummy because im scum lmao. yes, everything ive said associatively has been exclusively fmpov. again, hence why i kinda want a three-group flip, because i know that my townflip is associatively meaningful, and i literally cannot prove this any other way (which is, the most infuriating thing in the world).

[mc esther]

and like, holy shit if im scum please just vote me, i'll literally even self-hammer if that sweetens the deal. why wouldnt you want that? you either get a clear or a correct lim out of it, isnt this literally win-win?

[mc esther]

i'd rather eliminate innocentvillager because im worried town will fuck up yeelo without the spare miselim, but this is far better than any six-group elim imo.

[Brighter Puppy]

Even if i were to suddenly want to vote you now, the day is still early and need to hear from more slots.

- Norwee

[mc esther]

yeah that's definitely true, and im really hoping dunn will pick it up like i have

[mc esther]

(okay, im hoping dunn will pick it up minus the "why the fuck would you think that" reads, there's only room for one conspiracy theorist in this game)

[mc esther]

i'll literally even self-hammer if that sweetens the deal

i'll also promise to not self-hammer, if that's what actually sweetens the deal.

[mc esther]

to be clear, in the absence of "okay but only if you..." either way, my preference is to not, this is practically my first day in terms of content and omg it feels good to suddenly have actual takes on the thread and shit.

[mc esther]

but yes, it's a bit premature to be discussing this literally within twelve hours of gamestart (yes i think im done frivolously multiposting now)

[Brighter Puppy]

Oh and when i said: "Would like to hear from other slots"
That was with big emphasis on InnocentVillager.

- Norwee

[mc esther]

does that hold even if myself and std both flip town? (okay, that cant really happen, that's gg perfect scumgame; i guess more, if inno flips maf and std flips town). like, would you really go dwlee over prism there, do you believe scum!dwlee so strongly advocates for eliminating three-group?

they pushed three-group elimination at the start of day (before i'd made the observation that my townflip clears you and dunn). it's possible that they simply hadnt noticed (after all, it took me an embarrassing little while!), but this point probably came up in pt, right?

you didnt really answer this (you kinda just got caught up in the whole "but i dont think youre town" thing, which, fair lol), and though i think i can guess the answer, i'd kinda like to hear the reasons for it. is this an exception to your "no, prism cant be scum" belief, or would you instead take a line closr to "i dont see why dwlee would necessarily be aware of this"/"i dont see why theyd be so concerned with soft-clearing someone"? again, like, im asking your advice on how you would solve from my [stated] perspective, that im town and therefore maf on the wagon has to be elsewhere; i dont really care whether or not you believe my stated perspective is legitimate.

[mc esther]

i guess it's a little selfish of me to expect the thread to spend so much time on a perspective they literally cant verify, but lmao youve been telling me that prism literally cant be maf and im like "okay, it's a weird read sure and i have a bad history with those; but even if i assume it's bad on those grounds and go for std first, can it really [again again, to me] be anyone else over prism if std flips town?"

[Brighter Puppy]

I don't understand where you're going with this Dwlee argument. Namely, why it's supposedly towntelling that Dwlee argued for eliminating in the small hood? And it's not like they argued strongly either, they literally just said "ok maybe we can eliminate in 6 hood then" during middle of day 1 after seeing some minor opposition to their argument, and when Todoroki grew up as an wagon. Maybe this isn't exactly

damning

to the slot, but i sure as hell don't see why it would be town indicative.

And regarding: "whether it even can be anyone else other than Prism if STD!town", i'd argue that yes. There can in fact be anyone else. Namely Dwlee or Dunnstral. Did i miss where you went over why these slots are town? Because i feel like you said some reasons, but they weren't very good. And seemed to be based mostly on "This is from my POV as town" which for obvious reasons, i don't consider to be highly valid arguments. And even if you are town, that doesn't necessarily make your reasoning there correct.

Me and Fire even discussed that Dunnstral hasn't done anything town indicative other than be logical and advocate for the correct plays. Which scum can easily do. If Dunnstral is scum then he is one of those scum players that are hard to catch because you can only really say "Maybe they are going along with everything too smoothly/kindly" and that they would have stronger opinions or be more opposed to things if they were town.

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

Oh wait, i misread some votes.
Dwlee stayed voting small hood all of day 1.
But like... why is that something you think is townie?

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

Just to mention, i can maybe see some reasons for Dwlee!town. But they are not even close to what you are describing as the main reasons for why they are.

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

My thoughts might have been a bit messy there, looking back on it. Apologies.

- Norwee

[Pavowski]

Official Vote Count 2.01

mc esther

(1): innocentvillager

innocentvillager

(1): mc esther

Dwlee99

(1): Save The Dragons

Not Voting

(4): Prism, Dunnstral, Brighter Puppy, Dwlee99

With 7 employees, it takes 4 to fire.

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-01-28 20:44:58).

Mod notes:

[mc esther]

lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?

[mc esther]

ebwop: in advocating for a three-group flip day two

[Brighter Puppy]

Ok so you’re saying Dwlee would be intentionally making himself suspicious because of wagonomics if he were scum and to argue in favour of limming his partner in small-hood.
I did not understand your argument up to now.
To answer, i do not think on these terms. As scum from big hood is likely to buss their partner in small hood at some point, so to argue in favour of limming there is never town indicative imo.

- Norwee

[mc esther]

okay. i'll take that under consideration as i chew on the prism read some more. i very much stand by it for now, but "dwlee's gotta bus eventually, why wouldnt he try it now?" is the sort of counterpoint i was looking for, thanks.

[Prism]

Finished parsing and will write something up.

If you have any specific questions, now would be a good time.

I am curious as to why you think I was so ready to vote in the 6 given 646 and 655.

[Prism]

I also do not think it was an all-town wagon at this juncture, and would not be surprised if there were 2, but I think you are underselling the possibility.

I have tried to make this as collated as possible.

1. The scum wagon on Todoroki was overwhelmingly beneficial to mafia. The wagon was mafia driven, and more specifically the push was likely a strategic calculation by Prism.

I think this benefits greatly from the power of hindsight and retrospective fitting. I can wax poetic about my scum strategy and meta, but the short of it is this: This depends on me

knowing in advance that I would get universally townread for a Todoroki push

, or at least not widely scumread. This is not a feasible strategic gameplan for me, who adamantly refuses to entertain even the idea of losing as scum. I am extremely risk averse as scum and do not believe in betting the games on Day 1 gambits. It is very easy to look back and say "Well, nothing went wrong in Prism's push on Todoroki", but a million things could have gone wrong-many of them completely out of my control.

The simplest scenario, and by far the most likely, is Todoroki putting up stiffer resistance and becoming townread, which would be disastrous and put me on the ropes the rest of the game if not out entirely.

I am shocked that Brighter Puppy still says I even have "the most influence" because I mauled any reasonable ability to impose my reads on others with a sledgehammer on Day 1. In contrast, I am very confident in my ability to solo carry so long as there are no PRs or mechanical confirmation of me.

2. Todoroki was right and the reach-out was odd.

I think that 516 is worth revisiting. I can go further and do a more explicit compare/contrast of when I set people up to faceplant and when I legitimately want others to jump in, but I think 516 suffices.

It is important to keep the two posts to notscience in place contextually. In the first, I am going down the line of trying to keep players engaged and motivated. Brainstorming ways to do this on my run, and thinking through, the idea of me depending on notscience for my mafia purpose was hilarious imo, though others may have disagreed. In the second, my words were not paternalistically individual: they were turning notscience's words back on himself, and trying to get him to be more combative and rigorous in the event he was town.

3. Prism's shift to being open to 6 doesn't make sense.

"Being open to 6" means if I am outnumbered and outvoted. I had my day as an ego monster, and do not intend to be a town dictator today. Arguing mechanics is miserable and several players (Brighter, Dunnstral) are not changing their minds.

This angle is somewhat concerning to me because my last posts were 646 and 655.

[Prism]

Contextually, it is important to know what happened in the 6hood overnight.

I advocated for 3, Kuriyama concurred, dwlee concurred. I frame it very explicitly as having a strong preference but not strongarming. The only comment from me in favor of voting in the 6, which came in the 6hood rather than in this thread, was when dwlee came by and dismissed Dragons' push on him without reacting to anything substantively. I said something along the lines of "Now I'm down to vote in 6" as an empty threat.

I stand by my statement that it is best to force people to hunt in both categories even if I want 3 at the end of the day.

If you remain concerned about my interactions with notscience, specifically around the unvote, I would strongly encourage visiting Perpetual MELO in conjunction with the above linked 516.

As a final note, I have been willing to play along with not outing your main, but it is difficult to do so when you ask about my expectations for you. You have been very sharp at setup design, and immediately understood that voting in 3 was better. It was jarring to see you find that single mediocre reason persuasive.