Open 845 | 09:12 [Game Over]


User avatar
Andante
Andante
She
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Andante
She
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 12184
Joined: March 6, 2021
Pronoun: She

Post Post #475 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:48 am

Post by Andante »

Vote Count 4.2
Dwlee99 (1):
The Muffin Man
The Muffin Man (1):
Dwlee99
Not Voting (1):
MalcolmTucker

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to reach a majority.

Deadline (expired on 2022-03-11 23:12:32)

Mod Notes:
-If you see an issue with the VC Let me know!
Last edited by Andante on Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #476 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:48 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 473, The Muffin Man wrote:this is exactly why dwlee brings me to elo. he can't easily pin down on why I'm scummy, so he's focusing on lack of activity (which if you wanna try to explain why that's scummy as opposed to NAI, go for it) and trying really hard to build a narrative of why I would choose this Elo and he wouldn't (despite the fact that all the reasons for him not choosing it apply just as much to me if not more so)
You have offered literally no reasons I'm scummy besides night kill WIFOM that flipped scum were actively pushing so... this is very hypocritical and bad faith which should be obvious
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #477 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:57 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 470, The Muffin Man wrote:in reference to these three posts:
again, your entire argument for me being scum is that I apparently would do these things? which I'm assuming is based on this being a new account, but I'm quite obviously not a new player
Yea this is actually extremely damning for you because I'm pretty sure Koba's townread on you was based on you seeming new because it was all weak sauce level 0 stuff. Like you come into this ELO on 26 post coast, and you're not a new player? And you also clearly have enough knowledge to try to setup frame jobs with night kills if you're not new? Like idk I once killed literally everyone who townread me to argue in an ELO that the night kills obviously didn't point to me because everyone who townread me died and scumread the person who voted me. But thats what your entire argument is based on. Again, I reiterate, you have not offered a single reason I'm scummy besides the night kills seemingly pointing to me, which is
the argument the flipped scum was pushing on my slot
.
but yah, your entire pitch here fails to account for why I don't just shoot the conftown (when a frog/dwlee/me endgame doubles my odds of getting a vote on town and I only close down my options while still having to 1v1 there if scum so.... it's like ???? as an explanation for me either)
This literally all applies to me and I already argued it. But I also was obviously set to vote you, so it comes down to whether you think Malcolm or Frogs is more likey to vote with you.
Which brings me to:
you're arguing that frog had momentum to TR you --> I don't think his engaging with you is the same thing as "momentum to TR", it's just part of assessing? I certainly don't think that based on his final posts you'd have had any sort of confidence that you had brought him round enough for him not to insta-vote you
Based on their last posts they were looking at Koba calling me an IC. There was clearly momentum there and they were listening to my arguments and engaging with me, looking at my previous ELOs where I engage in the same way, etc.
and for the 3rd bit again that you'd have to be assuming my reads were unchanged and I don't think that's something you realistically think if being honest
It still would have been a better bet than killing conftown like I think this kill would be extremely bad if I were scum.
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #478 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 2:58 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 473, The Muffin Man wrote:anyway, malc, is this helpful or nah? I can be around and respond to dwlee if you like, if you wanna ask me about what I was thinking at certain points in the game I can do that insofar as I remember, but like lowkey idk if any of that really makes choosing easier and I stand by the fact that highest accuracy in elo comes from looking at past days (the main reason why I'm even talking today is bc I know my content has been low and therefore I figure it might be harder to base a choice just off that)
And note that despite saying highest accuracy is in looking at past days, their main argument is (reiterating)
the argument flipped scum used on the night kills, not actually past days
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #479 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:05 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 470, The Muffin Man wrote: this makes zero sense and totally disregards my ability to read up overnight? also we'll pick up on this later, but I think it's disingenuous to not think that my reads would change from pre-Galron-or-NM-flips after those both came round -- but I never got the chance to talk about either until now
Your trajectory is unknown vs leaving conftown alive. I would go for the unknown that last townread me in this scenario.
NM was going down yesterday regardless of what you did, and your play around him was in no way clearing -- firstly because ofc scum are bussing there) and the speed of your vote actually was antitown bc it let NM drop the self and end day early, which is actually v convenient when you wanna, let's say, target someone who hasn't posted before they get a chance to
Except my progression is extremely natural vs just looking good. Scum can choose to look good by having right reads but will fail in having a progression that makes sense. You can see that when Frog votes NM I'm sorting Frog, not just going "oh okay bus time." Like you can feel the gears ticking in my head that go "okay engaging with frogs, realizing roleblocker interaction, frogs is townie on this engage, solve acquired"
mmmm
You can't just "mmm" the obvious framing of NM here like you don't have an argument because it is just that obvious that NM is trying to mislim me with that argument
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #480 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:10 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

It's actually extremely funny to me that when Koba started scumreading me for purposefully slanking to PR tell, they just completely ignored muffin man being straight up absent from the game
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #481 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:12 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

Spoiler: like speaking of day play here's muffin's entire day two
In post 260, The Muffin Man wrote:whoops, I forgot about this

I'll get round to this properly this evening but for now VOTE: galron
In post 333, The Muffin Man wrote:
In post 313, DkKoba wrote:thats E-1, please someoen unvote so we can maintain discussion time for now
What else needs to be discussed
In post 337, The Muffin Man wrote:Gimme til tomorrow to actually catch up but from after the flips

[me]
[malc]
[dwlee]
[frog]
[koba!slot]
[N_M]
[Galron]
In post 339, The Muffin Man wrote:Tbf i would also lowkey be down to kill N_M

Galron just scummier tho, so if we have the votes...
In post 340, The Muffin Man wrote:Not meaning literally rn obviously
In post 341, The Muffin Man wrote:Okay I gots to bounce again, if u want me to focus on anything when I catch up then lmk right under this post

I’ll check it befor I get to it
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #482 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:13 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 333, The Muffin Man wrote:
In post 313, DkKoba wrote:thats E-1, please someoen unvote so we can maintain discussion time for now
What else needs to be discussed
This post in particular is very bad because they have one post voting Galron this day phase, no other discussion, and are like yea okay we can end this

How is this townie lol
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #483 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:17 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 315, Dwlee99 wrote:
In post 312, Frogsterking wrote:I think you seem kinda townie dwylee, based on D2 posting.
This does check out with the information available to me
Oh who said I was townie based on past days :eyes:
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #484 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:22 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

TLDR: i don't think I'd make the night kill but also like night kill spec bad when flipped scum tried to use it specifically to murder me, and muffin's main argument is literally the flipped scum argument for me being scum - the night kills. In extremely basic terms: NM says "dwlee scum cause koba night kill" and now Muffin comes into today with the only argument for me being scum based on these night kills. Because that was the entire scum plan to win.

TLDR (extended version): Muffin hard coasted through day two and was fine with day ending after they made one post with essentially a naked vote which is not a townie thought process at all.

TLDR (extended extended version): Muffin is talking out of both sides his mouth saying look at past days and then only arguing I'm scum cause night kills.
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2354
Joined: January 9, 2022

Post Post #485 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 6:52 am

Post by MalcolmTucker »

Alright, probably not much more to say at this point. Firing into the dark a bit, but chances of us being unlucky with the role read on Muffin feel lowish statistically, and I don't think Muffin brings me into the final day as priority given some of Frogster's posts.

VOTE: Dwlee99
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #486 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:05 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

Well you were wrong lol

The final mafia was a GOON. Meaning your result shows vanilla on them. Your result was literally completely irrelevant
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #487 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:06 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

Tbh I don't know why I keep losing these situations / keep getting mislimmed. I had all the argument and Muffin had "well uhhh night kill"

At least when Koba mislimmed me in ELO they had better arguments
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #488 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:07 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

And tbh I feel like you literally didn't read my posts if you felt like it was firing in the dark :/

There was plenty of content to analyze
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #489 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:11 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 2, Andante wrote:*
1 Mafia Goon
* 1 Mafia PR

* 2 Town PRs
* 5 Vanilla Townies
In post 440, Andante wrote:
Not_Mafia was eliminated. They were a...
.
Mafia Roleblocker
I think the role thing annoys me the most mainly cause it's just like factually wrong

Anyway, last post on this gg y'all
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
Something_Smart
Something_Smart
He/him
Somewhat_Balanced
User avatar
User avatar
Something_Smart
He/him
Somewhat_Balanced
Somewhat_Balanced
Posts: 23115
Joined: November 17, 2015
Pronoun: He/him
Location: Upstate New York

Post Post #490 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:14 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Dwlee99 was eliminated. They were a...

Spoiler:
Vanilla Townie

MalcolmTucker,
Town Vanilla Cop
, has been endgamed.
The Muffin Man,
Mafia Goon
, has survived.

Congratulations to the Mafia team of Not_Mafia and The Muffin Man!
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
User avatar
Frogsterking
Frogsterking
He/him
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Frogsterking
He/him
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6935
Joined: June 20, 2011
Pronoun: He/him
Location: Pond

Post Post #491 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:27 am

Post by Frogsterking »

The super low activity scum strategy works!
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2354
Joined: January 9, 2022

Post Post #492 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:12 am

Post by MalcolmTucker »

Fair enough, second game in a row I've been wrong on a final turn...not my strong suit. Hard game to analyse.
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
MalcolmTucker
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2354
Joined: January 9, 2022

Post Post #493 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 8:13 am

Post by MalcolmTucker »

In post 486, Dwlee99 wrote:Well you were wrong lol

The final mafia was a GOON.
Meaning your result shows vanilla on them.
Your result was literally completely irrelevant
Was aware that was a possibility, but your average finding will still be town more often than goon. Anyway, apologies, called it wrong.
User avatar
Dwlee99
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dwlee99
They/them
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 25777
Joined: July 3, 2015
Pronoun: They/them
Location: Northeast USA

Post Post #494 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:03 am

Post by Dwlee99 »

In post 493, MalcolmTucker wrote:
In post 486, Dwlee99 wrote:Well you were wrong lol

The final mafia was a GOON.
Meaning your result shows vanilla on them.
Your result was literally completely irrelevant
Was aware that was a possibility, but your average finding will still be town more often than goon. Anyway, apologies, called it wrong.
The result did not make muffin more likely to be town once NM flipped roleblocker.

After N1 the game is

4x VT
Vanilla Cop
Roleblocker
Goon

So if you get "vanilla" result, then the chance of them being scum is now 1/5 fypov (as they are confirmed not roleblocker)

With no result, their chance of being scum is 2/6 > 1/5

So vanilla makes it more likely they're town there

Once the roleblocker flipped (and in ELO) the setup was

VT
Vanilla Cop
Goon

Probability of muffin scum given vanilla is 1/2
Probability of muffin scum given no result is still 1/2, because both remaining people were vanilla.

So your result had no relationship to the probability muffin was scum or not because the probability doesn't shift with getting the result.
I prefer they, thanks :)
User avatar
RH9
RH9
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
RH9
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2900
Joined: November 15, 2019
Pronoun: he/him
Location: Epping, New South Wales, Australia

Post Post #495 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:47 am

Post by RH9 »

Well done Town! Well played, scumteam!
I was spectating this game, by the way.
GTKAS: 2022, 2024

v/la every weekend

indefinite hiatus from mafia solo
User avatar
RH9
RH9
he/him
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
RH9
he/him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2900
Joined: November 15, 2019
Pronoun: he/him
Location: Epping, New South Wales, Australia

Post Post #496 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:53 am

Post by RH9 »

On another note, if you are curious, Neapolitan finds VTs so a positive result as one would mean that your target is Town.
GTKAS: 2022, 2024

v/la every weekend

indefinite hiatus from mafia solo
User avatar
Andante
Andante
She
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Andante
She
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 12184
Joined: March 6, 2021
Pronoun: She

Post Post #497 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:44 am

Post by Andante »

Thank you everyone for joining my first ever game to mod!! I know I had a lot of fun with this, I hope each and every one of you enjoyed playing!!! If there was anything you wish I did differently, feel free to share!!Shoutout to my awesome co mod Something_Smart!! Shoutout to the awesome spectators we had too!! This game was pretty fun to follow!!! From limming the town tracker in the first 5 hours of the game to how it ended, definitely fun to watch!! I hope to see all yall in future games!!! Even if you don't want to play, feel free to join the spec party!!!

~~~~~

Now for the part I know yall want.... the PTs!!! I'm giving mafia 24 hours for redactions, so that one will get posted tomorrow.

If you wanna check out the dead people/spectator party... That is located .

If you wanna see me figure out what I was doing, That is located .
The Muffin Man
The Muffin Man
he/him
Townie
The Muffin Man
he/him
Townie
Townie
Posts: 32
Joined: February 17, 2022
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #498 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:27 pm

Post by The Muffin Man »

gg all

thanks for modding, andante

@malc, for what it’s worth that was a tough spot to be in. I do think that generally elo decisions are best made on the strength only of prior days but the other thing to consider is whether a player is the kind who tends more towards playing mechanically (a la our charming co-mod S_S) or someone who likes to set up a particular endgame and play for that (more my style, but obv it was impossible for you to know that at the time)
User avatar
Andante
Andante
She
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Andante
She
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 12184
Joined: March 6, 2021
Pronoun: She

Post Post #499 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:33 pm

Post by Andante »

Yall thought you had to wait 24 hours for the mafia PT? Nahhh we have it now!!!

If you wanna see what the mafia were up to, and how they won the game... That is located .
Locked

Return to “Completed Open Games”