Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Aisa]

What can I say, I wasn't thinking straight and will never attempt to play mafia before work again

[Gamma Emerald]

We're either in dddmvtt without sk

or ddmvttt with an sk

So whether we can believe both depends on whether we believe there's a sk

I think n1 suggests sk so...

ddd is impossible as there wouldn't be a one shot doc
it's either ddmvttt or ddddmvt
which means there's 100% an SK at this point

[Gamma Emerald]

assuming there is an SK, whoever is fakeclaiming (presuming that's the case) likely shot Lucian N1
I'm gonna figure SK wouldn't no-kill after scum got yeeted D1, they would need to get town numbers down so they have a shot at winning

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Yes, and it would mean Lucian is probably not sk

Unless we think Mafia killed mala for the low info kill

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Anyway I'm ready to end the day.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I probably will hammer tomorrow morning if there's no more discussion

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

Infinity protects me, Aisa protects Hiraki. We hunt for the SK today.

[Klick]

Gamma, BBT, CSF, Lucian is our pool?

[Klick]

I suppose the fake claim could be an SK but then the protect on Lucian doesn't make sense
Aisa claimed second so I guess Aisa could be SK technically
If Infinity's scum it's very likely groupscum

[Klick]

Then we're left with, how tf do you actually SK hunt.
I guess who has been playing with survival on the mind?
That makes Gamma unlikely probably, Gamma would conceivably take an NK for his play so fat
And it sounds like Lucian actually did

BBT/CSF seem like reasonable guesses

[Klick]

VOTE: Infinity

This wins the game.

This reads to me as an attempt to project not considering there's an SK. When really, SK was still entirely a possibility at that point.

[Klick]

I'd appreciate an unvote from the Infinity wagon.

[Klick]

Oh it's E-2 anyway

[Klick]

Eliminating outside Infinity/Aisa today also accounts for the increasingly slim possibility that they're both telling the truth

Also SK is incentivised to aim for the Doctor in the group

[Klick]

VOTE: BBT but I'll also give CSF fair consideration today
I'd really like to hear how people feel about the plan to have both docs protect both conftown, and also who people think could be scum outside of Infinity and Aisa.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Infinity is scum not doctor?

So, can we not elim me?

[Klick]

Infinity might be scum. Aisa might be scum.

If we vote the scum between them, the other dies, and then if we miselim after that the other scum just kills a conftown.
If we vote the Doctor, both conftown die and we're left in 3p ELo after we vote the other claim (unless they're both telling the truth!).
Neither of these are great outcomes.

If we leave both claims alive and aim for SK:
If we hit SK, it's likely just game over, we win.
If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Aiming for SK is just better.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Aisa probably isn't scum. Infiniity very likely is.

If we're aiming for SK it's most likely Gamma

[Lucian]

Klick hunting for an SK is something I really did not want to see.

If we're going down that route, I'd say the SK is more likely between Gamma and CSF, I struggle to see BBT playing SK like this.

I don't think eliminating outside the pool helps us much if both Doc claims are true, but we're likely completely screwed in that universe, anyway.

I'll give this a little bit of thought, then I'll say what I think.

[Klick]

Actually I'd like to see a plausible explanation from anyone for either Infinity or Aisa fakeclaiming Doctor today as scum.

[Aisa]

It is hilarious to me that Klick's plan may just work.

Infinity might be scum. Aisa might be scum.

If we vote the scum between them, the other dies, and then if we miselim after that the other scum just kills a conftown.
If we vote the Doctor, both conftown die and we're left in 3p ELo after we vote the other claim (unless they're both telling the truth!).
Neither of these are great outcomes.

If we leave both claims alive and aim for SK:
If we hit SK, it's likely just game over, we win.
If we don't hit SK,

Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK

, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Aiming for SK is just better.

Suppose Infinity protects Klick, I protects Hiraki. Under this plan, whoever is anti-town between I and Infinity can just shoot whoever we are supposedly protecting. However, we can fix this! We can just say that whoever is doctor between I and Infinity will just 50/50 between you and Hiraki, as originally planned.

More thoughts soon.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I agree that is seems strange for scum to claim Doc. Don't really see a benefit to it

[Aisa]

Aah no nvm I see what you mean Klick
I said something last night about not playing mafia in the morning nad here I am again

[Klick]

If Infinity shoots me you just eliminate them tomorrow
If you shoot Hiraki we just eliminate you tomorrow
Neither of you as scum will do that

And so Infinity should be on me, Aisa should be on Hiraki.

[Lucian]

Actually I'd like to see a plausible explanation from anyone for either Infinity or Aisa fakeclaiming Doctor today as scum.

Infinity as scum/SK sees that they are completely screwed, and they're holding up the ancient groupscum-SK bloodbond known as "fuck the Town".

I did something similar as SK once, so. If at least a few people are like me in that regard, then I could see it happen.