Open 865 | CultD3 | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.07

Malakittens (3):

MegAzumarill, Fredrick A Campbell, Not Known 15

Elements (3):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden

Roden (1):

MathBlade

Not Voting (1):

Elements

With 8 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is October 7 at 9:00 PM EDT.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-10-07 21:00:00)

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Poorly phrased on my end.

Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.

Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

Only at first glance.
If scum acts the CL dies tomorrow, then the scum dies the next, and Cult has a maximum of one person remaining.
4:1 Nightless, with a converted Cop/JK is the best they can get there.
4:1 Nightless Vanilla has a 60% town win rate.
If scum doesn't act the CL has a 50% chance to die today and a 50% chance to not die today and probably not tomorrow.
We cannot distinguish between that and T/T. This doesn't help us!

I mean in theory it doesn't hurt but yeah probably not worth the hassel then.

[MegAzumarill]

There's the alternative approach of keeping it at 3/3 and forcing scum to take a coinflip or act if they are S/T (which feels likely)

I don't really like it though and kind of is a waste of time, but potentially has merit

You’re not hearing me. It’s not a binary.

What I am saying is it’s a discussion we need to have and not speed run it.

And yes a claim would be disastrous here.

For a moment assume I am truthtelling

Assume Elements town I am town
Assume Mala is VT

Then cult has a very very narrow window to hit the PRs.
We are at 8 alive -3 (elements, myself, Mala) -2 cult (unknown who) = 3

That means 1/3 chance to hit the cop.
Leaving it here means 1/4 which means maybe one more day.

So I don’t want any unneeded claims. If town agrees then we do it knowing the risks.

Ok but I don't think cult recruits a town!Mala regardless

If Mala is unrecruitable, that's honestly probably fine
If mala is JK/Cop that's bad
If Mala is VT there's no real change unless scum were real confident in a cop!Mala or somethin weird like that

The odds this hurts town are less than the purely statistical odds of mala being scum so I don't think this checks out

Post says “Assume Mala VT”
Response says “Mala isn’t likely cult”

Response doesn’t go through my argument? Like this is a nonsequitur

Poorly phrased on my end.

Given the four possible responses to a claim, 2 of them aren't helpful to scum, and the odds of one of the other two are exponentially higher if Mala is town.

Additionally the raw odds of Mala being CL before any clears are taken into account is higher than the odds she is JK or Cop (By 3:2 margin)

I mean I think we just vote who we think is most likely CL and get this probability headache gone

[MegAzumarill]

Mathblade, between Elements and Mala which do you think is the better lim

[MegAzumarill]

You're going to be the deciding vote anyway so might as well decide

[Elements]

I'm not gonna be back before the end of the day so and I'm not gonna vote myself so
VOTE: Mala
E - 1

[MathBlade]

Mathblade, between Elements and Mala which do you think is the better lim

Strategically Elements.

I don’t think either is the CL so if this has to be the choice I would pick Elements here. I think an Elements flip gives more to us to solve with. I’d rather not force another claim when the only argument I see for Mala scum is she is lurking.

If I have to pick between the two it would be elements because unless someone presents an airtight case flipping Elements is the best play for town.

[MathBlade]

I am kinda hoping for a flash wagon here maybe to NK15 or Roden but I don’t think anyone wants them. Those two the case is strong enough for to where a claim would be warranted but not on just “she’s lurking”.

[MegAzumarill]

Yeah I don't think a flashwagon will happen here
I feel like there really isn't another case on Mala because there's basically nothing for it to be based on. That's genuinely concerning though. I do think you are town here so I'll
VOTE: Elements [E-1]

[MegAzumarill]

There isn't a need for a claim I suppose so might as well avoid it.

Don't think it does as much harm as you suggest but this is still a good elim

[MathBlade]

There isn't a need for a claim I suppose so might as well avoid it.

Don't think it does as much harm as you suggest but this is still a good elim

Kinda where I am at.

Going to give until after work before hammering.

And btw I still consider NK15 on this wagon for analysis.

[Not Known 15]

Oh, fine. It isn't happening.VOTE: Elements

[MathBlade]

Okay hammer without giving people a chance.

That’s sus as fuck.

Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?

[Roden]

A chance for what? Elements already claimed and NK15 wanted them dead days ago. The only other option is running up Mala, and it looked like we don't want to force any more claims today.

[MathBlade]

A chance for what? Elements already claimed and NK15 wanted them dead days ago. The only other option is running up Mala, and it looked like we don't want to force any more claims today.

A chance to give a case on Mala and respond to the suggestion. You don’t just hammer out of no where.

There was absolutely no harm in waiting for people to come online.

You defending NK15 is ewwww.

Rapid hammers = bad = mafia 101

It was openly expected that I hammer.

Then despite his “bad feelings” NK15 hammers

What part of that is good?

[MathBlade]

Further reinforces that NK15’s “bad vibes” weren’t genuine

That reads like exasperation.

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay hammer without giving people a chance.

That’s sus as fuck.

Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?

Disagree on Roden

[MathBlade]

Okay hammer without giving people a chance.

That’s sus as fuck.

Can like no one else see what I do here with NK15/Roden?

Disagree on Roden

Why? He’s advocating for obvious scum here?

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel like he was towny early today and he didn’t seem like scum D1
But the point you make about defending scum might be worth note if Elements flips town

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.08

Elements (5):

Gamma Emerald, Malakittens, Roden, MegAzumarill, Not Known 15

Malakittens (2):

Fredrick A Campbell, Elements

Roden (1):

MathBlade

With 8 alive, it took 5 to eliminate.

[catboi]

Elements was eliminated on Day 2.

They were a...

Spoiler:

vanilla townie[/spoiler]

[catboi]

It is now Night 2.

The deadline for Night 2 is

October 8

at

7:30 PM EST

. Submit night actions by PM, if applicable.

Deadline Timer

: (expired on 2022-10-08 19:30:00)


Mod Note:

Malakittens is being prodded, if she does not pick up her prod notice during the night phase she will be replaced for inactivity.

[catboi]

Searching for a replacement for Gamma Emerald. Daystart will be delayed until one is found.

[catboi]

JohnnyFarrar replaces Gamma Emerald.

Day will now start tomorrow morning at 10 AM EST. Apologies for the delay.