Open 717: C9++ [GAME OVER:TOWN WINS]

[Hoopla]

hey guys. i am very rusty and forget how to play.

refresh my memory: if you ask someone if they're scum they have to answer honestly, right? kinda like when you're dealing drugs irl, if you ask if they're a cop, legally they have to tell you.

thanks in advance.

-- No, they do not. Just like I don't have to tell you that I'm a secret Serial Killer.

[Hoopla]

I don't remember games being like this.

My intuition says to ignore it all and make votes instead.

VOTE: gamma emerald

-- Well, I'm a newbie mod and we have the most wacko IC ever :^)

[Hoopla]

Would you like to explain your vote in the meantime?

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

-- So what does a journey of

two

thousand miles begin with?

[Hoopla]

Literally have stopped reading Generic Hydra's posts. Please shut up.

As for JJD wanting masons to claim - it's obviously a bad idea. There's no way scum can fakeclaim masons in this setup, they'll get caught once we massclaim later in the game. Then we out confirmed innocents for no reason, and if there's a Doc, they now have 3 innos to protect instead of 1, making it less likely for a Doc to be accurate.

Having said all that, I think he's slightly town-ish for suggesting it. Scum are rarely brazen enough to blatantly rolefish - he's more likely misguided town.

[Hoopla]

Could you explain the massclaim part? This is my first game with this setup; if every member of the town tells the true, scum could still fakeclaim something remaining, right?

It's theoretically possible for scum to fakeclaim a role during massclaim, depending on what order scum fall in the massclaim order. If they go last, there may be an opening for them to claim something other than VT, but if they're earlier in the massclaim order, they risk claiming something that will be counterclaimed. Also, depending on what scum role(s) have been flipped by then, this will also enable us to more accurately narrow down which setup(s) we are possibly in. You can use process of elimination quite well later in the game, to the point where scum fakeclaiming masons is nigh on impossible to get away with.

[Hoopla]

Hey Sesq, you seem like a switched on lil cookie. Let me ask you a question.

Are you a fan of

random

well-informed bandwagons?

[Hoopla]

what do you mean

I'll cut to the chase. Stop wasting your precious vote on the confirmed town slot, no matter how right it feels, and team up with ol' Hoopla and jump on the gamma wagon. Or I don't mind switching to milo.

Lets get this game going.

[Hoopla]

The Gamma-"wagon" feels weird, and not the least because I started it with an RVS-vote.

For starters, you're second on the wagon homie.

And if it feels "weird", why are you still on there now? As far as I'm concerned, this is still an unripe wagon in its infancy -- unable to deemed weird or appropriate because it's so new. Everything in this game is. Despite being on page 11, we've barely just escaped the RVS imo.

[Hoopla]

This game is a wreck. How are we even supposed to continue from here.

We ignore pages 1-10 and focus on shamelessly creating competing bandwagons. It's the purest and most noble path forward.

[Hoopla]

Well, this Gamma wagon seems to have fizzled away into the ether -- perhaps next time a foundation of evidence instead of randomness will be more structurally sound. When do I learn?

ANYWAY, moving on:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Kop

/shameless

[Hoopla]

Now, ol' Hoopla was never a big D1 gamesolver -- when I was recording stats back in the day, D1 lynchrates were worse than random at one point, which is why I've always been in favour of policy lynching or utility lynching on D1. There's nobody that really qualifies for policy lynching (yet) as we unfortunately can't lynch the Innocent Babby, and it's too early to lynch all lurkers.

Frankly, I don't trust my read of the gamestate before flips, especially when I'm in the dark re: current meta, so I'm going to make a wild declaration here and say I'm just going to sheep whoever sounds like they know what they're talking about.

Gamma, have you played with Kop much? Are you a beacon of wisdom that I should be bowing to? (be honest)

[Hoopla]

I can't soulread them but I feel like I should be able to tell Kop!town vs Kop!scum given an extensive meta of times where I was both partners with him and scum where he was town. I feel like this is more like scum!him than town!him. In addition in general his responses haven't given me much to like. Hopping on Myloninja wasn't very impressive, and his instant accusation of lying towards me seems a bit too on-edge for town.

Good2know

Why was I wagoning you in the first place? You clearly have some value if you're town.

[Hoopla]

CLAIM TIME

Please fill out this form Kop:

I, mafiascum user Kop hereby officially claim ________ <----

your roleclaim/fakeclaim goes here

I apologise to the good people of the town for my pattern of devious behaviour and hope the town can see it in their hearts to forgive me. I acknowledge that forgiveness is out of my control and if my fellow townsfolk so wish to have my head, I humbly accept this fate. All hail the glorious and wise town of C9++!

Signed ____ <----

your username goes here

[Hoopla]

Vanilla Townie.

Now, just to clarify, is this a fakeclaim or your real role?

[Hoopla]

So, who wants to have a chat about this claim with me? I feel like my opinions about these sort of situations are controversial.

For the most part, towns are pretty ruthless when it comes to following through on lynching D1 VT claims. The problem is, most scum are aware of this idiosyncrasy and tend to favour claiming PR's, which creates the ugly D1 metagame of having PR-claims being disproportionately scum-heavy and VT-claims disproportionately town-heavy. Ultimately, if you want to have the best chance of lynching scum D1, you generally need to take a risk in lynching a PR. Most towns are adverse to this concept, and tend to play it safe and lynch the VT and keep the PR pool hidden -- this is a valid strategy as PR's can win you the game, but you're

almost always

lynching town D1 because of it.

When I used to keep track of Mini Normal stats, I used to record things like VT claims on D1 to check how often town/scum claimed that role respectively. IIRC, scum claimed VT 5 times compared to about ~50 truthful VT claims. In analysing the handful of times that scum claimed VT, it was generally done by newbish scum who didn't really seem to get site meta of claiming a PR to try and survive deeper into the game. Granted, I haven't updated any of these stats for more than 18 months, but I doubt the metagame has shifted significantly.

This is where I'll get Gamma to weigh in. Do you think Kop is a switched on enough player to realise that claiming VT as scum in this situation is suboptimal? Would you expect a PR claim from him in this spot as scum?

Also, unvoting while I do my some research.

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

As for Kop being a scum who would claim PR I think I remember him doing it once but I'll have to dive for that

I just had a flick through Kop's history as scum, but didn't notice this game you mentioned -- can you find it for me?

Kop seems to have an unfortunate habit of being shot at night as scum, playing fully open games (so no fakeclaiming) and in some of his earlier games replacing out quite frequently, so we don't have a huge sample of claiming to work with. There are a couple of games that seem like relevant reading: Micro 686

I'm just a member of the audience, I have no part in the play. My only power is my vote so basically just a VT.

<snip>

In Micro 686 he ends up claiming VT here, which on the surface seems like decent evidence against Kop, but looking at his postgame explanation:

I chose to claim VT and not The Princess who we knew wasn't in the game, as I wanted to leave that for Imperium in the event that I got lynched, I didn't want to end up being lynched and took the fake claim, leaving Imperium with nothing to claim that could buy him time.

This actually seems like good critical thinking around the claiming situation -- not taking the provided fakeclaim when you're under pressure and saving it for a better placed teammate is kinda smart (and using the provided fakeclaim would be the easiest thing to do/level 1 thing to do). So, I don't necessarily agree with Gamma's assessment of Kop being on the first level here. There's also Open 639 where he went down as a Serial Killer:

Good game folks. I was going to claim vigilante, but I knew I was screwed either way, regardless of what I claimed.

I think I knacked myself up by killing Rask night one, because sense went out of the window with that kill.

Screwed either way, but still would have gone for a Vig claim. I'd also like to see the game Gamma is talking about, but right now, my read is he isn't just blindly taking the basic option without thinking. Both of those situations involved some level of thinking. If anything, the swift response makes it more likely to be true, imo.

[Hoopla]

Actually I think I was misremembering something (don't know what though), and I actually found reason to believe he's more inclined to claim VT than PR as scum. In Roleblocker6, Micro 718, we were both scum and discussed claiming strategies in pregame, and he told me he didn't see the point in claiming anything besides VT. So that should speak to the type of scum he is.
Bit upset with myself for misremembering but I at least found a nugget of info from my mistake.

So, I went and looked up that Mafia thread you were talking about, and this seems to be the quote you're referring to:

If I'm understanding correctly, we're either in with Jailkeeper, Macho roleblocker.

Or we're in with a cop and tracker.

We can either safely claim VT, or try draw out the two main power roles. If they are in the game. Cop would be the safer option or tracker to remove any investigative roles that could out us.

You were either in the setup where the only PR's are Cop/Tracker or JK/Macho Roleblocker -- so fakeclaiming a PR isn't really viable here without being counterclaimed. You can either safely claim VT or you can claim a PR to draw out a town PR. To me, it doesn't seem like he's favouring one over the other -- he's just listing the options. In this setup, C9++, it is definitely viable for scum to pull off a fakeclaim that can last a Day or two, or even until endgame if they get lucky, so I think that talk in Micro 718 isn't super relevant as to what he'd do in this game as scum and is fairly neutral/null.

[Hoopla]

Hey, I still think Kop is scum, but Sesq jumping on the wagon without even saying that Kop is back to L-1? Me no likey.
VOTE: Sesq

So, do you think Sesq is more likely to be scum than Kop?

[Hoopla]

As I still think Kop is scum, I'm inclined to 1,

but I do believe that Kop's wagon got a lot of momentum in a very short time, so it could perfectly have some scums pushing it

. I don't believe Sesq being town motivated, as he could have voted for Kop before.

A seductive soundbite, but I think speed of a wagon is sometimes overvalued. Sometimes the stars align and a group of townies lock in on the same frequency (not always a correct frequency) without scum help.

Moving on, there's nothing I like more than a juicy speedwagon on D1 other than a juicy counterwagon on D1, and I do like Sesq for scum more than Kop, soooo...

Vote: Sesq

[Hoopla]

Woah, I just typed that vote normally and somehow it came out big and red. I think ~*

the universe

*~ must be trying to tell us something...

[Hoopla]

Hang on, let me try it on someone else. This is just a normal vote.

UNVOTE:

Vote: Kop

[Hoopla]

WOOAAHHH HOLY SHIT

this is crazy. I don't know about you guys, but I'm convinced. Something magical, nay, something ethereal is going on here. I think the mafia gods must be divining supreme knowledge down upon this blessed town.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla tell me why I shouldn't lynch you for trying to fake the mod messing with your posts

Seemed obvious my hilarious jokes were hilarious based on my hilarious jokester nature. But then I remembered nobody knows me in this game.

I will promptly return to serious Hoopla. Ahem.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sesq

[Hoopla]

As an aside, Gamma's obliviousness seems quite town there, especially if I'm wrong about either Sesq's or Kop's alignment. Scum would know I was joking and be more likely to play along with ol' Hoopla if I was indeed incorrect about those votes. So, if Kop is scum or Sesq is town, then Gamma = town.

I didn't even do that as a reaction test, but somehow I have got a read out of it. What a truly gifted player I am.

[Hoopla]

But who should the doctor protect tonight?

The confirmed town slot, obviously.

The longer we can keep an innocent child alive, the easier process of elimination becomes later in the game. Having one less possible mislynch candidate on multiple Days is immensely valuable.

[Hoopla]

Holy cats, that hammer was hot garbage. For real, what on earth were you thinking JJD?

I find it extremely hypocritical that you were concerned enough about a mason claiming strategy to divert conversation to that early game as a potentially optimal play... then you go ahead and hammer without a claim? That makes no sense to me. What if Sesq was a mason or a Cop?

VOTE: Judge Joseph Dredd

-- Fixed vote.

[Hoopla]

By the way if you don't want someone to be lynched don't put them at l-1. It's that simple. We're not going to put everyone to l-1 and get a claim the move on until all PRs are outed. I said to lynch the first vt claim but nobody listened.

Then you put Sesq to l-1 an wanted a claim. She would have claimed vt. So? Would you have lynched her?

That would be hypocritical because you didn't lynch Kop for the same claim. Would you have let her go and wagoned someone else? How many wagons did you guys need to help scum find the PRs? If anyone really did understand why I called for the masons to claim they should have understood why I didn't like wagoning people to l-1 and getting them to claim then moving on.

And yes, of course there was scum on both Kop and Sesq's wagon, That's what scum do. They push wagons to get claims and shoot the PRs.

That's using the benefit of hindsight. Nobody knew she was a VT and she was going to claim it. There are plenty of roles scum simply won't fakeclaim, which are masons and probably vig. I'd also be inclined to give a Cop claim a reprieve on D1, but you robbed us of the potential of analysing Sesq's claim and making a decision, and were simply lucky it wasn't a costly hammer. She could have easily been a Cop/Vig/Mason.

Having said all that, I agree with this:

I don't want to believe this game is that easy. This has been the worst hammer in the history of hammers, maybe ever. But there is a lot of "what ifs" we should analyze before finishing this day so quickly.

It does seem kinda easy, but the problem with this type of thinking is it lets clearly scummy/antitown play off the hook if you don't follow it up, and I think reprieving someone on the logic of something being "too scummy to be scum" or "this is all a bit too easy", is a slippery slope and you'll miss more opportunities of lynching scum in the longrun.

I do agree that we shouldn't quicklynch JJD today, as I still barely have reads on half the player list.

[Hoopla]

let me ask you all a hypothetical question. If you were a cop in this game who would you have checked tonight? I of course don't want you to answer in thread but only to yourself in your mind, If the answer is JJD for that hammer then are limiting yourself to me being a Godfather, an investigation immune SK, or a townie. Said another way the chances of me being scum have dropped down by 50% for that hammer and it has nothing to do with being too scummy to be scum bs but more to do with the fact that I simply cannot be a goon or RB knowing there might be a cop in the game and draw attention to myself like that.

You'd literally be the worst possible Cop investigation as you're probably going to be the lynch today or vigged last night. A cop should never waste an investigation on such a player.

The optimal choices as Cop is to pick someone that isn't too townie/scummy and doesn't look like being the lynch or NK any time soon -- as this way if you get an innocent result, you don't have to out yourself to protect them D2 and you don't run the risk of your target being NK'ed.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE: for now.

Perfect.
VOTE: Fredrick
I fucking knew it. FoS Uglyduck and Mylo

Mmm, this isn't a slamdunk. JJD could still easily be scum. If he believes he's going down today no matter what, fakeclaiming Cop to get a mislynch (and out another possible Cop) is actually a good play. I would definitely consider this play as scum if I was almost certainly going to be lynched D2.

My first instincts are that it feels fake, but regardless, lets not quicklynch Frederick either until everyone checks in. I want to think about this.

[Hoopla]

Are you guys serious? A fakeclaim being on L-2? If he's fakeclaiming he's dead on D3, let me believe he's not that stupid

If I believed I was 95% going to be the lynch today, as scum I would absolutely claim a Cop guilty on someone. Who cares if you get lynched the next day? One more day is better than zero more days, and you squeeze an extra mislynch out of the town when they were almost certainly going to lynch scum. It's a very good scumplay to extract a little bit of value from a bad situation.

[Hoopla]

Does a cc even matter if it's not the person guiltied? Can't there be two cops?

There

can

be two Cops, but that means we'd have to have rolled 4 C's which is highly unlikely. How unlikely? Well, first lets look at the odds of each setup coming out:

(Here's a link to the setup for those following along)

TTTTTTT

- 0.7%

TTTTTT

- 5.4%

TTTTT

- 16.4%

TTTT

- 27.4%

TTT

- 27.4%

TT

- 16.4%

T

- 5.4%

0T

- 0.7%

Purple means SK setup, and until we see evidence of another NK, we should assume we're in non-SK game. We already have an M rolled, so for 4 C's to exist, we'd probably have to be in the TT or 0T setup. The odds of no T's being rolled is <1% -- basically non-existent. Doing some monte carlo simulations for the TT setup yields the following result:

0 C's - 24%
1 C - 41%
2 C's - 26%
3 C's - 8%
4 C's - 1%

Again, basically non-existent chance that we're playing in a 4 C setup.

So, if someone is a Cop, they can counterclaim knowing that JJD's Cop claim would almost certainly be fake.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: I fully concur with your 461, but I also seem to recall you describing my hammer on Sesq as hot garbage. Care to make up your mind? Am I good scum who would "extract a little bit of value from a bad situation". or am I bad enough to place a "hot garbage" hammer? Or did I just happen to improve in 2 pages??

To be honest, I have no idea what to make of you. Almost everything you've done in this game has been weird or questionable, from the masons claiming strategy, the quickhammer and now a Cop claim with a guilty at the apex of town's suspicion for you. And your primary defence for all of it has basically been,

"but would I really do that as scum?"

At a certain point, I'm finding it all just a bit too unbelievable.

[Hoopla]

1 shot cop only takes us to 3 Cs. Dredd are you specifying?

Actually, yes.

First thing when he gets back, JJD needs to specify if he's 1-shot or full Cop.

[Hoopla]

While we've got a bit of downtime, I'm going to try and solidify my reads since I've been distracted by this whole guilty claim situation:

Gamma

- think he's town. The way he reacted to my series of fake vote posts seemed like legit confusion that genuine gamebreaking had been leaked. Now that Sesq has flipped town, it shows that my red bolding of Sesq's name was incorrect. If Gamma was scum, he would have cottoned on that I was just joking around since he'd know that info was false. Even prior to this tell, he seemed inquisitive and was furthering the game -- so he's my top pick for town atm.

~~

pinturicchio

- I like him for town also, though I don't have any specific tells backing this up. Other than seemingly blindly believing JJD's cop claim, he's been a beacon of reason and seems helpful to the town. I am wary of players who tend to appear to be the voice of reason or are obviously thoughtful players, as they're generally better at deception and faking this imo -- but if he's town, I think he has good value and I'm not really considering him a suspect.

~~

LaserGuy

- I've got a town vibe from some of his posts like 320 -- covers a lot of topics and reads in a pretty lucid manner and is clearly thinking about the game. But I'm also suspicious that he talks about Sesq earlier on D1 like this and then later in the day claims intent to hammer without reason:

Sesq's posting style is consistent with the last game I played with her where she was Town. IIRC she's pretty abraisive as either alignment, so I don't think that I can read much into her tone at the moment.

Intent to hammer

Claim please.

If you believe her play was consistent with her town game (or at best neutral), what was your reasoning to intend to hammer?

~~

Kop

- I still think he's town but I'm less confident than I was on D1, mostly because of Sesq flipping town. The speed of the transition onto Sesq was slightly alarming, which might imply that scum were eager to derail the Kop wagon when the opportunity presented itself to do so. I just really think scum wouldn't claim VT in that spot, so this is still the overriding factor for me, but Kop has done absolutely nothing since I defended the claim, which is pretty suspicious imo.

~~

Uglyduck

- Barely noticed him on D1, but have liked his energy and presence around this whole Cop claim situation, so maybe slightly town? Still want to see more from him. Ideally, I'd like a list of reads, since he's mostly just participating in the current active conversation as opposed to bringing much up himself.

~~

Frederick Campbell

- Has posted a decent amount of times, but again have barely noticed much he's said. A lot of his ISO just seems like filler type content, just ticking-the-boxes and hitting appropriate talking points without delving beyond the surface. The fact I can possibly see Fred as scum makes JJD's Cop claim a bit more believable I guess, but I'm very curious to see how Fred responds to it.

~~

Judge Joseph Dread

- I expressed my take on him here:

"To be honest, I have no idea what to make of you. Almost everything you've done in this game has been weird or questionable, from the masons claiming strategy, the quickhammer and now a Cop claim with a guilty at the apex of town's suspicion for you. And your primary defence for all of it has basically been, "but would I really do that as scum?"

At a certain point, I'm finding it all just a bit too unbelievable."

We're either lynching JJD or Frederick today -- that much is clear, but will have to wait until everyone has chimed in first. Especially Fred.

~~

For the rest,

Unabombah, myloninja, Ok Nyeo

, they all sort of blend in as lurker/white noise posters and would probably be my lynch pool if it wasn't JJD/Fred today. I have a decent amount of town reads, so this is where I'd probably be looking. Ok Nyeo is probably the best of them -- has been active and engaging in a variety of conversations, but not much of it has seemed substantial. Mylo is the bona fide lurker while Unabombah has been flying under the radar. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them are scum.

[Hoopla]

So, this is from back on page 12:

I have zero reads right now.

It's now page 20 on Day 2. Who are your reads?

[Hoopla]

Having slept on it, and seeing his new posts today, I'm probably more inclined to believe JJD as Cop now and am OK testing his guilty, but I still can't shake the feeling of paranoia he's scum getting one last mislynch for the road. Post 500 is also how I'd play a Cop with a guilty on D2, so he's at least thinking like how a Cop should play, and the longer we go without Frederick posting, the more suspicious it gets. He posted every day of the game on D1, and it's now coming up on 24 hours since JJD's guilty has been lingering in the air, so it's starting to feel pretty lurky...

[Hoopla]

Damn, I just woke up and was looking forward to hammering. Anyhow, just checking in to say sup

and goodnight!

[Hoopla]

At this point, I'm just going to assume JJD is scum trolling now, because the alternative makes me want to throw up. For real, if you somehow are town here, you've probably just single-handedly cost us the game.

VOTE: JJD

[Hoopla]

Yeah, u scum.

Nice job getting your extra mislynch, and shame on me for not following through with my instincts yesterday. Time for you to go away and stop terrorising this once peaceful town.

[Hoopla]

What was that..?

SERIOUSLY

Quite possibly some of the worst town play I've seen:

hammer with no claim D1 -- fine, we all get a little impulsive from time to time
don't protect the confirmed town player - mmkay, getting kinda dumb now
fakeclaim Cop guilty on townie as Doc D2 - WHY??
get mislynched D3 - sweet

end result: going into LYLO with basically no information, no scumhunting, no reads because nothing except the JJD show has happened since the end of D1. Sweet play. Just really sweet and cool game all round.

[Hoopla]

For real, it should be illegal to play the game so badly. Someone get Kison or zoraster to tell me his IP address so I can call the feds and get him arrested IRL.

[Hoopla]

ANYWAY

Before we do anything, we should massclaim, see if we get any more info that can clear someone/help us figure out the exact setup we're in. Then we can discuss suspicions. I literally have no idea who everyone's suspects are.

Mylo seems to be the most universally scumread, so he can claim first and then we'll popcorn from there.

[Hoopla]

Lets popcorn massclaim, so mylo, pick the next person to claim.

[Hoopla]

VT.

Ok Nyeo next.

[Hoopla]

Claims so far:

Kop - VT
Mylo - VT
Hoopla - VT
Ok Nyeo - VT
UglyDuck - Cop
LaserGuy - VT
Unabombah - ???

I have some questions for UglyDuck, but Una should claim first, then UglyDuck should claim his results before we continue the interrogation.

[Hoopla]

Normally I'd agree with you UglyDuck, but this is LYLO and you ain't confirmed so you don't get to call the shots. In fact, unless there's a sneaky no-killing SK, scum basically have perfect knowledge of the setup, making it super easy to fakeclaim in this spot.

Besides -- no voting will happen until you reveal your results anyhow, so waiting is pointless.

[Hoopla]

No one in confirmed yet. And you don't call the shots either. The only difference between your opinion vs my opinion on when I reveal my information is that my opinion is the one that matters.

Also, you should absolutely limit discussion on this topic prior to full claim list being completed.

Well, everyone has claimed now, so the dynamics of today essentially become "is this cop claim truthful or not", or as I like to call it: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Cop.

Nobody acts or votes until your information is revealed, so there's no point waiting. I don't care if you think you can glean ~reactions~ or whatever -- if you have a guilty, cool. Tell us, then we lynch you or the guilty. If you have innocents, cool -- we can now potentially work out the game from a PoE perspective. Either way, we're going to need a lot of time to deduce whether your results seem likely and your claim is truthful. The more time you faff about, the less time we have to work the game out together.

[Hoopla]

So, if there's no SK, it means we're either in setup TTTT (no additional PR's and UglyDuck is lying) or TT (UglyDuck is actually a Cop). Looking at the odds of each setup occurring from a purely statistical standpoint gives us this:

TTTTTTT - 0.7%
TTTTTT - 5.4%
TTTTT - 16.4%
TTTT - 27.4%
TTT - 27.4%
TT - 16.4%
T - 5.4%
0T - 0.7%

If we rule out all the setups except TTTT and TT, here are the odds of each setup being true:

TTTT - 62.5%
TT - 37.5%

Cop always claims Cop in TT as that is his truthful role. TTTT comes up more frequently, but scum won't always fakeclaim -- so it legit is a close call, a near coinflip imo, and it's why UglyDuck needs to get on with claiming results, so we can interrogate him.

[Hoopla]

Hang on, let me try it on someone else. This is just a normal vote.

UNVOTE:

Vote: Kop

Why did you vote Kop at this point? While lynching Sesq?

This was a joke post. A bit of humour while the thread was quiet. I explained this to Gamma a few posts later when he asked me the same thing.

I wonder why did mafia kill Pinturricchio and Gamma Emerald instead of an experienced and helpful player like Hoopla.

I've actually been wondering the same thing and have been pleasantly surprised both nights that I wasn't the kill. I assume scum are unaware of my abilities especially late in the game, or that I'm way off in some of my reads and that scum aren't trying to exploit the influence and sway I have in the game -- using this logic, the strongest town read I have (who is still alive) is Kop based on his D1 claim. It wouldn't surprise me if scum are exploiting my defence of Kop if he is scum.

[Hoopla]

This is an odd oversight on your part. If we are in a TT setup, then that guarantees that there is a mafia godfather. We need to be very careful trusting any innocent results even if we believe Duck's claim.

This obviously needs to be factored in, but the odds of a GF being investigated are still low enough that innocent results are still weighty and meaningful.

[Hoopla]

People posting scumteams without UglyDuck's results are wasting their time and I expect will end up changing them when those results are released, so I'm not going to bother refuting scumteams I've been named in until that info is out there.

I have a couple observations that I've picked up on this Day phase, but am sitting on them until we get that done.

[Hoopla]

Well, that makes things a lot easier me. Ballsy play, UglyDuck, I'll give you that. Telling you now you'd have had better odds faking innos on your buddy than faking a guilty on me.

Also extremely convenient you were blocked N1 and your other result dies the night you target them.

[Hoopla]

Okay... so you've got one useful result here...

Wait a sec... why didn't you go for Hoopla out of the gate? How are you so sure I'm scum that you went for me first thing over a confirmed scum reading?

^This is all the proof you need this is a fakeclaim. UglyDuck scumslipped by suggesting a Mylo lynch at the start of the Day, WHY WOULD YOU EVER DO THAT IF YOU HAD A GUILTY ON ME??

[Hoopla]

It's funny, in the interlude while we were waiting for UglyDuck to claim, I

was

actually leaning towards believing the claim. Initially, I thought it'd be a weird way for scum to fakeclaim Cop, but now seeing the angle he's gone for, it makes sense -- wait to see who everyone in the town suspects before dropping the guilty result.

I hope the town notices the suspiciously convenient outcome of

me

being the guilty target after both LaserGuy and Ok Nyeo had named me in their potential scumteams. All he needs is one townie to misvote, and then the game is scum's. By that logic, I think the scumteam isn't LaserGuy/OK Nyeo/UglyDuck -- as Ugly's guilty choice was probably influenced by me coming under a lot of suspicion today, primarily by those two players.

For real, why else suggest a mylo lynch and then suddenly pull out a guilty on me? And then also conveniently enough, no other results. I think it's fair to say throughout the game Gamma and me have been the most obvtown players, and pinturicchio would probably also have been in my top 3 for town -- why on earth would a Cop ever use all their investigations on 3 clearly town players -- not only because we're prob-town, but we're also prime NK candidates. No Cop would ever choose that as their checks.

[Hoopla]

For obvious reasons I already stated several times - I wanted to generate information.

you dun goofed, friend.

It's probably a good thing you didn't try to claim an innocent on someone else too, because I'm pretty sure I'd be able to smell through the wifom and either catch one of yo buddies or confirm someone else if this is the way you fakeclaim.

[Hoopla]

I would also like reads from both Duck/hoopla.

I'll get to this later, LaserGuy. Still looking for more smoking guns that will prove UglyDuck is fakeclaiming. Here's another one:

On Day 2 when JJD fakeclaimed Cop, UglyDuck would

know

that two C's have been rolled, so for a Cop to exist, it requires 4 C's to have been rolled, which was only a 1% chance of happening. UglyDuck knew the odds as he responded to that post and STILL ENDED UP VOTING FREDERICK WHEN HE SHOULD KNOW JJD IS 99% CHANCE LYING!

Even if JJD was a 1-Shot Cop, there's only an 8% chance from UglyDuck's perspective that a 1-shot Cop AND a Cop can coexist. He knew this, yet expressed little suspicion of JJD and instead talked about theory and what order to do things. Dude, if you're 90% sure someone is scum, you don't mislynch their "guilty" first.

I assume UglyDuck wasn't thinking of fakeclaiming Cop at this point in the game, and it was a later opportunistic decision, as that^ behaviour is not how a Cop acts when they almost for sure know the Cop claim is fake.

[Hoopla]

I ended up going against my instincts that the JJD Cop claim was fake. It occurred at the height of his suspicion, and if we were cynical enough, we should have realised that it was too good to be true, and it was a bit to convenient. Granted, he didn't turn out to be scum, but we could have realised he was lying if we evaluated things from a perspective of Occam's Razor.

The same situation is playing out now and I urge the rest of the town to consider how extremely convenient it is that scum only need one townie to misvote, and a Cop guilty just gets claimed after two players express suspicion on me. HOW COINCIDENTAL!

That's not even getting into the tangential inconsistencies, like:

- suggesting a mylo lynch when he has a guilty. Oh, that was for "information", I beg your pardon.
- essentially knowing that JJD was lying but going along with and lynching his "guilty"
- investigating the three most town players in the game. Oops, two are dead, but here, I got this juicy guilty for you. Ooh see, shiny! Oh, is it LYLO?

Occam's Razor.

Does anyone really think all this could be true? And is it more likely than the alternative:

- Scum needs one townie to misvote to win. A cop claim can't be disproved from a setup spec angle. All we need to do is convince one townie and we win without having to worry about surviving a day of analysis.

[Hoopla]

- Scum needs one townie to misvote to win. A cop claim can't be disproved from a setup spec angle.

All we need to do is convince one townie and we win without having to worry about surviving a day of analysis

.

....Um.... This phrasing is disturbing.

That's speaking from DuckScum's perspective.

[Hoopla]

Are you clowns for real?

- investigating the three most town players in the game. Oops, two are dead, but here, I got this juicy guilty for you. Ooh see, shiny! Oh, is it LYLO?

^Here's me speaking from Duck's perspective again in a different way

Seriously, if that's what you're gleaning from my posts, I don't know why I even bother

[Hoopla]

@hoopla: We don't need to lynch either of you until D6, and it's not beneficial for us to do so before then. If you're Town, stop worrying about it, start acting like Town and find the rest of scum.

I know this is the correct play, it's just bugging me that we have to keep this scumburger alive.

Like I said, when I get time I'll do a deep read and try and find his buddies. The only team I'm ruling out right now is OK/Laser/Duck, because I think Duck's claim was influenced by the suspicion that was being expressed on me -- and I wouldn't expect the scumteams' reads to line up on me so neatly. There are likely other pairings I can eliminate, just need some more time.

[Hoopla]

It's not only this. We can confirm both of them from the setup (as long as we manage to lynch correctly, of course). TT setup (Duck is cop) is Goon/Roleblocker/Godfather. TTTT setup (Duck is scum) is Goon/Goon/Roleblocker. If we lynch a Godfather, then hoopla is confirmed scum. If we lynch Goon/Goon or Goon/RB, then hoopla is confirmed Town and Duck is confirmed scum.

You guys need to stop this at once.

I'll make a longer post now that I'm finally on computer again - but make no mistake:

WE LYNCH IN HOOPLA/UGLYDUCK TODAY.

No, as absurd as it sounds, the correct play is to actually save the Hoopla/Duck coinflip until 3p LYLO, as our roles will be confirmed, meaning we don't have to gamble on the coinflip.

We still need to go perfect/perfect for the two other lynches, so it doesn't really matter if we do them D5/D6 or D4/D5 - the odds are basically the same. Doing it this way has the benefit of the setup solving the coinflip at the end of the game, instead of potentially losing to it now.

[Hoopla]

Unabombah, lets assume we do lynch correct in the coinflip today. No matter who is lying we end up in a 2:3 situation.

The odds to lynch the other scum is 2 in 5 tomorrow and if we're correct again, it's then 1 in 3 on Day 6.

Instead

, what we can do is lynch from the non-Hoopla/Duck pool today which is 2 in 5. If we're correct, tomorrow we again lynch from the non-Hoopla/Duck pool which is 1 in 3. On Day 6 if we've successfully lynched scum back-to-back, their roles will reveal who is lying between me and Duck, meaning we've avoided having to guess correctly on the 50-50 altogether.

[Hoopla]

Duck is scum: means the setup is TTTT - scum has Roleblocker/Goon/Goon

Duck is Cop: means the setup is TT - scum has Roleblocker/Godfather/Goon

If we lynch Godfather in the next two scum lynches, I am confirmed scum. If we lynch Goon/Goon or Goon/Roleblocker, Duck is confirmed scum.

[Hoopla]

No more players vote for me here, as it will lose us the game!! We can prove my alignment and Duck's on Day 6 if it gets to that!

~~

Looking for Duck's partners, I'm thrown by the "maybe we should lynch mylo" comment at the start of the Day. Why would he do that if he's buddies with mylo when you're planning to fake a guilty later in the Day? That would be a strange piece of distancing, by then again, he chose strange results to fake, so we can't rule out a mylo/Duck combo.

My top suspect for one of Duck's partners is Ok Nyeo because he isn't thinking critically about the situation and seems to be blindly set on my lynch. This reads like an agenda and he is simply not considering that I in fact may be town -- which is an inherently scum-based mindset. As town, there's always an element of paranoia in these 50/50 situations, even in the most slamdunk of situations and he's displayed little of that, which implies he's holding confirmed knowledge of mine and Duck's alignments.

A tell I just noticed recently, is that Unabombah's lack of knowledge for scum's role is actually a towntell -- and it's clear that the way he's arguing with me and Laserguy that he didn't realise the implications of the guilty situation. This rules out a Laser/Unabombah/Duck scumteam, as they would have discussed in the PT the permutations of the Day's play that a guilty would bring. In fact, it's unlikely Laser is scum with Duck at all, because it seems like Duck doesn't really get why saving the coinflip until Day 6 is actually the correct -- or if he does, I don't think he'd go against the play that Laser would have brought up in the PT last night -- ergo, Laser isn't scum with Duck, as Duck would be more willing to go along with the plan.

In fact,

because

Duck is going against the plan and trying to shepherd today's lynch towards me/him, it implies that he didn't know that the setup would confirm him as scum on Day 6. Yeah, it's clear that Laser isn't scum with Duck for this reason.

Kop being absent and with little influence for basically the entire game makes him hard to place, and I really thought it was quite unlikely he'd fakeclaim VT as scum, but by process of elimination he has to be a key candidate for Duck's partner.

I'm like 90% sure OK Nyeo is scum, and the most likely partner is Kop or mylo by process of elimination. Laser isn't scum, and Unabombah seems to not have knowledge of the setup, whereas he would if he was scum, as they'd be constantly talking about the setup at night. He also seems to be genuinely considering I may be town, unlike OK Nyeo and I also doubt he could fake this level of bluster and frustration as scum. So, he's probably my second top pick for town after Laser.

[Hoopla]

Thing is, I am not in your mindset. I have the frickin guilty on Hoopla. From my perspective there is no need to wait for D6 to have the free day... we have the free day today!
100% chance of being right on D4 far outweighs the 100% chance of being right on D6... because we do not have to get to the D6 to be right about D4. Not to mention the additional info we get by that point to make more informed decisions.

No, the thing is, if the town decides to lynch between you and I, neither of us have any control over the outcome with our votes because they'll both be on each other. So, even though it's a 100% chance of being right from my perspective (and you'll say the same from yours), it isn't 100% for everyone else. It will be on Day 6, though.

The fact that you're trying to get the Hoopla/Duck choice happening today is very telling, and I hope the town recognises this. Ugly realises he's going to get caught from the setup at some point, which is why he's pushing for a Hoopla/Duck lynch today. He's giving scum a chance of winning today by forcing an unnecessary coinflip on the town.

[Hoopla]

Laser, who's your top scumread other than me/Duck for today?

[Hoopla]

I've already mentioned my strongest scumread is Ok Nyeo, and it's concerning to me that he isn't receiving much attention at the moment. Like I said earlier, Kop and mylo are my two next choices, and if the former doesn't get in here soon and start posting he should be replaced, because it's hard to properly PoE this game when one slot is essentially a mystery and can only be judged from D1 play.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla and Kop, would you be fine with lynching Una? If so, I'd like you guys to vote first.

Like I said earlier, he's way down on my list and it's alarming that he's become first choice essentially from nowhere. I'd rather lynch Kop over Una, though again, both still behind to OK Nyeo.

Kop definitely needs to discuss his reads, since he hasn't done much of that since coming back into the game.

[Hoopla]

Ok Nyeo
-
-
Kop
mylo
-
Una
-
Laser

Duck goes last.

[Hoopla]

And we would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling

kids

cops...

[Hoopla]

For real tho, well played town. We collectively took a risk in not distancing enough as a team, which ended up tying us together too much once a guilty was discovered. The spontaneous combustion of our team on D4 (when a win seemed locked up) was truly a thing of beauty.

[Hoopla]

Good hustle from Una, fighting all the way to the bitter end despite the pile of evidence mounting up. That's what I like to see in my scumteams.